Wednesday, October 1, 2014

NFL Rankings and Weekend Predictions

Cincinnati held on to the top spot this week after their bye week, with Arizona, the only other undefeated team in the league, climbing into second place by taking the week off as well. A few of the top teams from last week fell after losses, but others moved up after huge upsets. Here are this week's full rankings, as well as my picks for every game this weekend:





Record
Proj
SOS

Rank
LW
Team
Rating
W
L
W
L
Curr
Overall
Seed
1
1
Cincinnati
-17.939
3
0
14
2
8
26
A1
2
6
Arizona
-14.1073
3
0
13
3
4
5
N1
3
4
San Diego
-13.3316
3
1
12
4
10
21
A2
4
9
Seattle
-12.6779
2
1
11
5
3
7
N5
5
2
Baltimore
-11.3905
3
1
11
5
17
17
A5
6
14
Denver
-11.2089
2
1
11
5
2
6
A6
7
21
Indianapolis
-10.6065
2
2
10
6
18
18
A3
8
20
NY Giants
-8.89625
2
2
10
6
9
10
N2
9
13
Dallas
-8.60202
3
1
10
6
24
14
N6
10
16
Kansas City
-8.34604
2
2
9
7
14
16

11
11
San Francisco
-5.73059
2
2
8
8
6
4

12
3
Atlanta
-5.2151
2
2
9
7
16
23
N4
13
17
Detroit
-4.65128
3
1
10
6
21
30
N3
14
26
Green Bay
-4.17962
2
2
10
6
11
31

15
12
Buffalo
-3.40209
2
2
9
7
12
29
A4
16
25
Philadelphia
-2.94147
3
1
9
7
22
11

17
19
Houston
-2.50366
3
1
9
7
25
19

18
5
Cleveland
-1.75534
1
2
7
9
13
20

19
8
New Orleans
-1.5741
1
3
7
9
7
25

20
15
Tennessee
-0.71954
1
3
7
9
1
12

21
23
Minnesota
0.47167
2
2
8
8
27
32

22
10
Chicago
0.88966
2
2
8
8
15
28

23
27
Miami
1.83195
2
2
7
9
29
27

24
7
Pittsburgh
1.98734
2
2
6
10
28
8

25
18
New England
3.20853
2
2
6
10
23
13

26
24
Washington
3.87243
1
3
5
11
19
9

27
22
Carolina
6.45977
2
2
5
11
20
15

28
28
NY Jets
7.07814
1
3
4
12
31
24

29
30
Saint Louis
10.0994
1
2
3
13
30
1

30
32
Jacksonville
12.933
0
4
2
14
5
2

31
29
Oakland
13.4051
0
4
1
15
26
3

32
31
Tampa Bay
13.59
1
3
3
13
32
22


4 of the top 6 teams in this week's rankings avoided the upset bug by taking the week off, with San Diego and Baltimore as the only top teams that won to get there. In addition to the two undefeated teams, last year's Super Bowl teams also moved up during the bye, though both are currently ranked below divisional foes, meaning they are currently in wild card position.

The New York Giants moved into the top 10 after their second straight win, this one by 31 points at Washington. It looks like Eli Manning has figured out the new offense, with 6 touchdowns and only one pick in the 2 wins. The Giants have a good chance at 3 in a row when they host Atlanta, who fell flat after their huge win over Tampa Bay 2 weeks ago.

Last week Pittsburgh was looking like a strong contender after a win at Carolina, but then the Panthers lost big again, and the Steelers lost at home to the Buccaneers. They face Jacksonville and Cleveland in the next two weeks, but with both on the road, neither is a gimme win.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Thursday

UCF at Houston - Cougars by 10
FAU at FIU - Golden Panthers by 1
Arizona at (2) Oregon - Ducks by 15

Minnesota at Green Bay - Packers by 8

Friday

Louisville at Syracuse - Cardinals by 11
San Diego State at Fresno State - Bulldogs by 5
Utah State at (18) BYU - Cougars by 25

Saturday

Marshall at Old Dominion - Thundering Herd by 14
Southern Miss at Middle Tennessee - Blue Raiders by 26
(20) Ohio State at Maryland - Terrapins by 3
Ball State at Army - Black Knights by 7
SMU at (22) East Carolina - Pirates by 36
Iowa State at (21) Oklahoma State - Cowboys by 20
Purdue at Illinois - Fighting Illini by 12
Florida at Tennessee - Volunteers by 9
(6) Texas A&M at (12) Mississippi State - Aggies by 7
Virginia Tech at North Carolina - Hokies by 5
Eastern Michigan at Akron - Zips by 29
North Texas at Indiana - Mean Green by 16
Massachusetts at Miami (OH) - Redhawks by 11
Tulsa at Colorado State - Rams by 23
North Carolina State at Clemson - Tigers by 11
Wake Forest at (1) Florida State - Seminoles by 25
(7) Baylor at Texas - Bears by 2
Ohio at Central Michigan - Bobcats by 4
Buffalo at Bowling Green - Falcons by 7
(4) Oklahoma at (25) TCU - Horned Frogs by 1
New Mexico at UTSA - Roadrunners by 29
(17) Wisconsin at Northwestern - Badgers by 4
(14) Stanford at (9) Notre Dame - Fighting Irish by 7
(3) Alabama at (11) Ole Miss - Rebels by 10
Navy at Air Force - Midshipmen by 1
Oregon State at Colorado - Buffaloes by 1
Vanderbilt at (13) Georgia - Bulldogs by 35
Kansas at West Virginia - Mountaineers by 37
Kent State at Northern Illinois - Huskies by 33
South Alabama at Appalachian State - Mountaineers by 12
Louisiana-Monroe at Arkansas State - Red Wolves by 20
Georgia State at Louisiana-Lafayette - Ragin Cajuns by 22
(15) LSU at (5) Auburn - Auburn Tigers by 18
Hawaii at Rice - Owls by 19
Idaho at Texas State - Bobcats by 25
Toledo at Western Michigan - Broncos by 11
Michigan at Rutgers - Scarlet Knights by 10
UAB at Western Kentucky - Hilltoppers by 16
UTEP at Louisiana Tech - Bulldogs by 30
Texas Tech at (23) Kansas State - Wildcats by 18
Memphis at Cincinnati - Tigers by 18
Miami at Georgia Tech - Yellowjackets by 3
Pittsburgh at Virginia - Cavaliers by 12
South Carolina at Kentucky - Gamecocks by 1
Georgia Southern at New Mexico State - Eagles by 35
UNLV at San Jose State - Spartans by 22
(19) Nebraska at (10) Michigan State - Spartans by 7
Boise State at Nevada - Wolf Pack by 4
Utah at (8) UCLA - Bruins by 21
California at Washington State - Cougars by 5

Sunday

Chicago at Carolina - Bears by 2
Cleveland at Tennessee - Titans by 2
Saint Louis at Philadelphia - Eagles by 17
Atlanta at NY Giants - Giants by 7
Tampa Bay at New Orleans - Saints by 18
Houston at Dallas - Cowboys by 9
Buffalo at Detroit - Lions by 4
Baltimore at Indianapolis - Colts by 2
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville - Steelers by 8
Arizona at Denver - Broncos by 1
Kansas City at San Francisco - 49ers by 1
NY Jets at San Diego - Chargers by 24
Cincinnati at New England - Bengals by 18

Monday

Seattle at Washington - Seahawks by 13

Prediction Results

College Football: 39-15 (.722) 251-76 overall (.768)
Upsets: 3-4 (.429) 14-35 overall (.286)
NFL: 6-7 (.462) 37-24 overall (.607)
Upsets: 1-3 (.250) 7-5 overall (.583)

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