Sunday, September 29, 2013

College Football Rankings - 29 Sep

If the movement among teams in today's version of my rankings seems a little strange, there is a good reason for that. Early in the season, when there is not enough game data to connect all the teams together in order to rank them, I use last season's data as a component in my formula in order to make it all work. Five weeks into the new season, enough new data has been gathered to remove last year's results from the formula, which caused some teams to drop or rise in the opposite direction that you would expect, since last year is no longer propping them up or holding them down. Alabama is the most obvious victim here, dropping to #7 despite a shutout of Ole Miss yesterday. Their strength of schedule took a hit after Texas A&M struggled to beat Arkansas, which is the biggest reason for their drop, and their weak conference schedule will mean that they need big wins every week if they want to regain the top spot this season. Here are my full current rankings, along with each team's predicted final record and odds of finishing undefeated:

Rank
LW
Team
Rec
Rating
Pred
Change
Undef %
1
1
Baylor
3-0
-46.6579
12-0

99.8
2
2
Oregon
4-0
-46.5527
13-0

61.5
3
10
Washington
4-0
-32.9663
10-2
+1
5.5
4
6
Florida State
4-0
-30.454
12-1
+1
18.7
5
7
Louisville
4-0
-29.2003
12-0

83.8
6
27
Stanford
4-0
-28.2081
10-2
+2
3.0
7
3
Alabama
4-0
-28.0624
11-2
-1
12.1
8
21
Utah State
3-2
-25.8524
11-2
+1

9
18
Georgia Tech
3-1
-25.2376
9-3


10
25
Arizona State
3-1
-24.7877
9-4
+1

11
5
Georgia
3-1
-24.1365
8-4
-2

12
30
Mississippi State
2-2
-24.002
8-4
+2

13
8
LSU
4-1
-23.6187
9-3


14
11
Miami (FL)
4-0
-23.4667
10-3
-1
1.3
15
13
Ohio State
5-0
-23.3416
12-1
+1
37.0
16
12
Wisconsin
3-2
-23.2089
9-3
-1

17
28
Florida
3-1
-23.077
8-4
+1

18
24
Clemson
4-0
-21.951
10-2
+1
3.5
19
22
Missouri
4-0
-21.9264
10-3
+2
1.1
20
4
Oklahoma State
3-1
-20.3827
10-2
-1

21
14
UCLA
3-0
-20.3012
7-5
-2

22
23
Arizona
3-1
-20.2637
8-4


23
44
Virginia Tech
4-1
-20.2354
10-2
+3

24
17
Utah
3-1
-20.1106
7-5
-1

25
38
Auburn
3-1
-19.5334
9-3
+2

26
45
Marshall
2-2
-18.6921
11-2
+2

27
16
South Carolina
3-1
-18.0368
8-4
-1

28
31
Texas Tech
4-0
-17.5997
10-2
+2

29
51
Tennessee
3-2
-16.1199
6-6
+1

30
26
Penn State
3-1
-15.0357
8-4


31
47
Navy
2-1
-14.9136
10-2


32
19
UCF
3-1
-14.6457
9-3
-2

33
32
Syracuse
2-2
-14.491
7-5


34
49
Houston
4-0
-14.2118
9-3
+1
0.3
35
9
Texas A&M
4-1
-14.1055
7-5
-2

36
39
USC
3-2
-12.5775
8-5
+1

37
53
Boise State
3-2
-12.325
8-4
+1

38
52
Indiana
2-2
-12.1383
7-5
+1

39
29
Brigham Young
2-2
-12.1168
6-6
-1

40
62
Illinois
3-1
-12.1122
8-4
+2

41
74
East Carolina
3-1
-11.01
9-3
+2

42
20
Ole Miss
3-1
-10.877
7-5
-2

43
56
Washington State
3-2
-10.8531
5-7


44
50
Cincinnati
3-1
-8.9171
8-4
-1

45
48
TCU
2-2
-8.89134
7-5
+1

46
75
Duke
3-2
-8.85655
6-6
+1

47
41
Vanderbilt
3-2
-8.58393
6-6


48
15
Oklahoma
4-0
-8.52098
8-4
-1

49
77
Western Kentucky
3-2
-8.46828
8-4
+1

50
42
Ball State
4-1
-8.46584
10-2


51
63
Ohio
3-1
-7.97666
11-2
+2

52
54
North Texas
2-2
-7.85698
9-4


53
46
Nebraska
3-1
-7.33474
8-5


54
66
Virginia
2-2
-7.11182
5-7


55
83
Pittsburgh
3-1
-6.61606
6-6
+2

56
43
Maryland
4-0
-6.43528
8-4


57
37
Northwestern
4-0
-6.21769
8-4


58
57
Wyoming
3-2
-6.12607
8-4


59
71
Kentucky
1-3
-5.80807
3-9


60
36
North Carolina
1-3
-5.70292
5-7
-3

61
61
Iowa
4-1
-5.06845
8-4
+2

62
68
Memphis
1-2
-4.31446
7-5
+1

63
84
Arkansas State
2-3
-3.57631
7-5
+1

64
40
Bowling Green
4-1
-3.54978
9-3
-1

65
87
Troy
2-3
-2.93588
6-6


66
64
Toledo
2-3
-2.83211
7-5


67
73
Rutgers
3-1
-2.58303
8-4
+1

68
99
Texas State
3-1
-2.1573
8-4
+2

69
101
South Alabama
2-2
-1.32378
7-5
+2

70
86
Northern Illinois
4-0
-1.24753
11-2
+2
2.8
71
69
Louisiana-Lafayette
2-2
-0.7199
7-5
-1

72
55
Oregon State
4-1
-0.31045
5-7
-1

73
88
Arkansas
3-2
0.932289
3-9


74
58
Rice
2-2
0.977024
8-4


75
93
Tulane
3-2
1.449731
7-5
+3

76
79
Fresno State
4-0
1.459353
10-3
+1

77
34
Michigan
4-0
2.253461
6-6
-3

78
33
Texas
2-2
2.293843
4-8
-2

79
70
Minnesota
4-1
2.394935
6-6


80
72
Middle Tennessee
3-2
2.549692
7-5
-1

81
90
San Jose State
1-3
2.793412
6-6
+1

82
91
Boston College
2-2
2.805346
5-7
+1

83
82
North Carolina State
3-1
3.07684
5-7


84
96
Buffalo
2-2
3.867919
7-5
+1

85
60
Kansas State
2-2
3.913647
5-7
-1

86
81
Florida Atlantic
1-4
4.053467
5-7
-1

87
103
California
1-3
4.181637
2-10


88
85
UAB
1-3
4.927699
5-7


89
65
UTSA
2-3
5.981803
5-7
-2

90
35
Notre Dame
3-2
6.561323
4-8
-4

91
59
Michigan State
3-1
6.828511
5-7
-2

92
100
Army
2-3
7.100016
5-7


93
80
Wake Forest
2-3
7.415344
3-9
-1

94
95
Nevada
3-2
8.155593
6-6
+1

95
78
Louisiana-Monroe
2-3
8.301222
4-8
-3

96
107
West Virginia
3-2
8.644086
5-7
+2

97
89
Colorado
2-1
9.201917
3-9
+1

98
76
Colorado State
2-3
10.05674
5-8
-1

99
97
Kansas
2-1
10.25976
4-8


100
102
Akron
1-4
10.43159
4-8


101
98
Kent State
2-3
11.64379
4-8


102
114
Iowa State
1-2
12.09577
2-10
+1

103
117
Air Force
1-4
13.80971
4-8
+2

104
92
Southern Methodist
1-3
13.81128
3-9
-1

105
112
UNLV
3-2
14.09457
5-7
+1

106
106
Hawaii
0-4
14.90942
2-10
-1

107
108
Temple
0-4
16.3553
1-11
-1

108
120
Miami (OH)
0-4
16.59797
3-9
+2

109
110
Louisiana Tech
1-4
16.94115
4-8


110
115
Eastern Michigan
1-3
17.43929
3-9
+1

111
105
New Mexico
1-3
18.04965
3-9
-2

112
94
Purdue
1-4
19.00203
1-11
-1

113
122
Idaho
1-4
20.23304
3-9
+2

114
67
Tulsa
1-3
20.49769
2-10
-5

115
111
San Diego State
1-3
20.63312
3-9
-1

116
104
Connecticut
0-4
21.63089
1-11
-2

117
109
UTEP
1-3
21.83443
3-9


118
119
Massachusetts
0-4
23.2421
2-10


119
118
Southern Miss
0-4
23.25711
1-11


120
113
Western Michigan
0-5
26.60107
1-11
-2

121
121
South Florida
0-4
27.31411
0-12


122
116
Central Michigan
1-4
28.48216
2-10
-1

123
123
Florida International
0-4
33.14088
0-12


124
124
New Mexico State
0-5
37.34708
0-12
-1

125
125
Georgia State
0-4
38.3354
0-12



Washington was a big mover this week, thanks to a very impressive start, which includes a blowout of Boise State, Illinois' only loss, and a solid win over a tough Arizona team. With all due respect to the SEC West, the Huskies have the misfortune of playing in the toughest division in college football, the Pac 12 North, where they must face Stanford and Oregon in the next two weeks, both of which are in my top 6. Whichever teams wins that division should be part of the final BCS title game.

Stanford lost more players to graduation last year than almost any other team in the country, which led to their low showing in my rankings for the first several weeks, since they were basically starting over at almost every position. The Cardinal have proven that their success is due to the system, not the players in it, by winning each of their first 4 games by at least 14 points, which will be a tough feat to replicate when they host Washington next week.

Oklahoma State looked like they had the potential to be a national title contender through 3 games, but they ended that speculation yesterday when they allowed West Virginia to control the entire game in Morgantown. The Mountaineers were shut out by Maryland last week, so nobody expected them to beat a (supposedly) much tougher Cowboy team, but it happened, and now the Big 12 looks like it belongs to Baylor.

Virginia Tech is making an appearance in my top 25 this week after beating Georgia Tech on the road, a game that I thought wouldn't be close, but in the other direction. The Hokies' only loss is to Alabama, which is excusable, and since then they have won 4 straight against steadily improving competition. They have a shot at making the ACC title game, but they will have to go through Miami to get there.

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