College Football Rankings - 22 Sep

An underwhelming victory by Alabama over Colorado State has allowed a new team to take over the #1 spot this week, and for once it isn't Oregon switching spots with the Crimson Tide at the top. There were only 2 upsets in the entire weekend, and neither involved ranked teams, so most of the movement this week is based on strength of schedule, with some teams dropping when they struggled to win games that should have been easy. Here are my rankings for all 125 teams, along with each team's predicted final record and odds of finishing undefeated:

Rank	LW	Team	Rec	Rating	Pred	Change	Undef %
1	3	Baylor	3-0	-33.7643	12-0		76.1
2	2	Oregon	3-0	-30.7329	13-0	+1	61.0
3	1	Alabama	3-0	-26.7732	12-1	-1	57.2
4	7	Oklahoma State	3-0	-18.9376	11-1		17.4
5	8	Georgia	2-1	-17.3969	10-3	+1
6	4	Florida State	3-0	-16.894	11-2	-1	12.9
7	17	Louisville	4-0	-16.46	12-0	+1	64.4
8	5	LSU	4-0	-16.4088	9-3	-1	0.7
9	10	Texas A&M	3-1	-15.8216	9-3
10	9	Washington	3-0	-15.7901	9-3		2.2
11	15	Miami (FL)	3-0	-14.9468	11-2	+1	6.6
12	16	Wisconsin	3-1	-14.6508	10-2	+1
13	27	Ohio State	4-0	-13.8433	11-2	+1	14.3
14	6	UCLA	3-0	-13.789	9-4	-1
15	12	Oklahoma	3-0	-12.5926	9-3
16	14	South Carolina	2-1	-12.2386	9-3
17	22	Utah	3-1	-11.8105	8-4	+1
18	11	Georgia Tech	3-0	-11.5035	9-3	-1	1.7
19	20	UCF	3-0	-11.1088	11-1		10.8
20	18	Ole Miss	3-0	-11.0338	9-3		0.1
21	19	Utah State	2-2	-9.02973	10-3	-1
22	32	Missouri	3-0	-8.94159	8-4	+1	0.3
23	25	Arizona	3-0	-8.66659	8-4		0.1
24	26	Clemson	3-0	-8.65019	9-3		1.4
25	13	Arizona State	2-1	-8.39273	8-4	-1
26	29	Penn State	3-1	-8.30587	8-4
27	30	Stanford	3-0	-7.74743	8-4	+1	0.1
28	21	Florida	2-1	-7.56254	7-5
29	23	Brigham Young	1-2	-7.29565	7-5	-1
30	46	Mississippi State	2-2	-6.69407	6-6	+2
31	28	Texas Tech	4-0	-5.89876	8-4	-1
32	38	Syracuse	2-2	-4.32692	7-5
33	34	Texas	2-2	-4.27112	6-6
34	31	Michigan	4-0	-3.34162	9-4		0.1
35	33	Notre Dame	3-1	-3.01042	8-4	+1
36	35	North Carolina	1-2	-2.63024	8-4
37	24	Northwestern	4-0	-1.60181	8-4	-2	0.1
38	49	Auburn	3-1	-1.24656	7-5	+1
39	44	USC	3-1	-0.98301	7-6	+1
40	37	Bowling Green	3-1	-0.64756	10-3	-1
41	36	Vanderbilt	2-2	-0.64205	6-6
42	53	Ball State	3-1	-0.59939	10-3	+1
43	52	Maryland	4-0	-0.56667	8-4
44	40	Virginia Tech	3-1	-0.40933	7-5
45	39	Marshall	2-2	-0.38268	9-4	-1
46	42	Nebraska	3-1	-0.29889	8-4
47	45	Navy	2-0	0.016699	10-2		3.6
48	47	TCU	1-2	1.181444	6-6
49	50	Houston	3-0	1.2136	8-4
50	43	Cincinnati	3-1	1.39095	9-3
51	48	Tennessee	2-2	1.719946	5-7	-1
52	41	Indiana	2-2	1.985681	6-6	-1
53	54	Boise State	2-2	2.525547	7-5	-1
54	57	North Texas	2-2	2.612562	9-4	+1
55	56	Oregon State	3-1	2.636852	6-6
56	55	Washington State	3-1	3.143844	5-7
57	60	Wyoming	3-1	3.78313	8-4
58	51	Rice	1-2	3.961769	8-4	-1
59	67	Michigan State	3-1	4.458889	7-5	+1
60	70	Kansas State	2-2	4.468764	6-6	+1
61	81	Iowa	3-1	4.529677	6-6	+1
62	59	Illinois	2-1	5.163201	6-6
63	66	Ohio	3-1	5.601732	9-3
64	73	Toledo	2-2	5.755476	7-5	+1
65	75	UTSA	2-2	6.16607	7-5	+2
66	77	Virginia	2-1	6.934453	5-7	+1
67	65	Tulsa	1-2	7.161966	7-5
68	92	Memphis	1-2	7.345733	6-6	+1
69	68	Louisiana-Lafayette	2-2	7.752074	8-4	+1
70	78	Minnesota	4-0	8.07925	6-6	+1
71	76	Kentucky	1-2	8.186982	3-9
72	84	Middle Tennessee	3-1	8.730908	8-4	+2
73	63	Rutgers	3-1	8.796096	7-5
74	71	East Carolina	2-1	9.125956	7-5
75	62	Duke	2-2	9.281567	5-7	-1
76	90	Colorado State	1-3	9.313226	6-7	+1
77	82	Western Kentucky	2-2	10.03736	7-5	+1
78	61	Louisiana-Monroe	2-2	10.07419	7-5
79	85	Fresno State	3-0	10.16599	9-4	+1
80	89	Wake Forest	2-2	10.52792	4-8	+1
81	74	Florida Atlantic	1-3	10.6048	6-6
82	87	North Carolina State	2-1	11.40966	5-7
83	80	Pittsburgh	2-1	11.52319	4-8	+1
84	72	Arkansas State	2-2	11.83083	6-6	-1
85	69	UAB	1-2	12.32294	5-7	-1
86	64	Northern Illinois	3-0	12.8354	9-3	-1	0.5
87	58	Troy	2-2	13.12915	6-6	-1
88	83	Arkansas	3-1	13.221	3-9	-1
89	88	Colorado	2-0	13.42755	4-8
90	79	San Jose State	1-2	13.59279	5-7	-1
91	93	Boston College	2-1	15.088	4-8
92	109	Southern Methodist	1-2	16.15662	4-8	+1
93	86	Tulane	2-2	16.19617	4-8	-1
94	102	Purdue	1-3	16.55723	2-10
95	104	Nevada	2-2	16.62091	5-7
96	99	Buffalo	1-2	16.67704	6-6
97	91	Kansas	2-1	16.68605	4-8
98	96	Kent State	1-3	17.66237	4-8
99	98	Texas State	2-1	17.68731	6-6
100	97	Army	1-3	17.7332	5-7
101	100	South Alabama	2-1	18.11298	5-7
102	103	Akron	1-3	18.20278	4-8
103	105	California	1-2	19.71182	2-10
104	115	Connecticut	0-3	19.92367	3-9	+1
105	108	New Mexico	1-2	19.92494	5-7
106	94	Hawaii	0-3	20.04559	3-9	-2
107	95	West Virginia	2-2	20.06896	3-9	-1
108	107	Temple	0-3	20.56049	2-10	-1
109	106	UTEP	1-2	21.39279	3-9	-1
110	110	Louisiana Tech	1-3	21.8116	4-8	+1
111	119	San Diego State	0-3	22.32196	4-8	+2
112	114	UNLV	2-2	23.95125	4-8
113	101	Western Michigan	0-4	25.22311	3-9	-1
114	113	Iowa State	0-2	26.64019	1-11	+1
115	112	Eastern Michigan	1-3	26.65161	2-10
116	117	Central Michigan	1-3	28.7961	3-9
117	111	Air Force	1-3	29.3528	2-10	-2
118	116	Southern Miss	0-3	29.43368	1-11
119	120	Massachusetts	0-4	29.91863	2-10	+1
120	122	Miami (OH)	0-3	31.10253	1-11
121	121	South Florida	0-3	34.43544	0-12	-1
122	118	Idaho	0-4	34.93993	1-11	-1
123	123	Florida International	0-4	37.84944	0-12	-1
124	124	New Mexico State	0-4	38.32663	1-11
125	125	Georgia State	0-4	53.11873	0-12

Baylor won in a huge blowout once again, this time dispatching Louisiana-Monroe 70-7, nearly matching their average game score exactly. They still don't face a real test until November, when they start playing ranked conference opponents weekly, but at this point they have been unstoppable on both sides of the ball, and they also have the best chance of finishing unbeaten of any team in the country, which could cause a big mess if Oregon and Alabama also complete the feat.

Louisville finally played like a national title contender this week, piling up 72 points against FIU without allowing a single point by the Golden Panthers. The Cardinals are leading the nation in scoring defense, allowing only 6.8 points per game, but they will need to continue putting up huge wins to have a chance at the BCS title, since UCF is the toughest opponent they will face this season.

Ohio State struggled against Cal last week, so a visit from Florida A&M was just what they needed to prepare for a showdown with Wisconsin next week. The winner of that game will most likely represent the Leaders division in the Big 10 Championship Game, and the Buckeyes may still be missing Braxton Miller, which will force Kenny Guiton to play the game of his life for the second straight week in order to have a chance.

Missouri went on the road for the first time this week, and had to face a much-improved Indiana team on the trip, but the Tigers returned home victorious and still undefeated as they prevented the upset-minded Hoosiers from ever gaining any real momentum in a 17-point victory. Their schedule in October gets much tougher, with Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina on tap, and all 3 will want to prove that Missouri does not deserve to be the only undefeated team left in the SEC East.