Thursday, September 12, 2013

NFL Rankings and Weekend Football Predictions

The first week of the season is in the books, and while some teams lived up (or down) to expectations, there were several teams which played much better or worse than expected, which caused some major shifts in the rankings. Some of the teams which had the largest drops were winners in week one, like New England and Indianapolis, each of which played games that came down to the final possession against Bottom Five teams. Here are my full rankings for this week, as well as my picks for every college and pro game this weekend:

Rank
LW
Team
Rec
Rating
Pred
Change
Undef %
1
2
Denver
1-0
-15.8697
15-1
+2
23.0
2
1
Seattle
1-0
-15.5345
14-2

11.1
3
3
San Francisco
1-0
-9.02641
12-4
+1
0.4
4
8
Carolina
0-1
-8.07213
11-5
+1

5
13
New Orleans
1-0
-5.82192
10-6
+1

6
4
Chicago
1-0
-5.754
11-5
+1
0.1
7
17
Detroit
1-0
-5.54325
11-5
+4
0.1
8
9
Green Bay
0-1
-5.48882
9-7


9
10
Cincinnati
0-1
-5.21641
11-5
+1

10
25
Philadelphia
1-0
-4.25295
10-6
+4

11
23
Miami
1-0
-2.84505
11-5
+4
0.1
12
16
Tennessee
1-0
-2.73891
11-5
+1

13
7
Atlanta
0-1
-2.28433
8-8
-2

14
19
Dallas
1-0
-0.65625
8-8
+1

15
15
NY Giants
0-1
1.881348
6-10
-2

16
11
Minnesota
0-1
1.994349
6-10
-3

17
28
Kansas City
1-0
2.340201
9-7
+4

18
21
Houston
1-0
2.420955
9-7
+2

19
5
New England
1-0
2.711158
8-8
-3

20
14
Baltimore
0-1
3.667887
7-9
-2

21
6
Washington
0-1
4.209453
5-11
-5

22
27
Saint Louis
1-0
5.299105
6-10
+2

23
20
Arizona
0-1
5.836699
5-11
-1

24
24
Pittsburgh
0-1
6.7235
6-10
-1

25
30
Buffalo
0-1
7.173564
6-10
+2

26
12
Indianapolis
1-0
7.372448
7-9
-3

27
26
San Diego
0-1
7.883361
5-11
-2

28
18
Tampa Bay
0-1
8.008355
4-12
-3

29
31
Oakland
0-1
8.910042
5-11
+2

30
29
NY Jets
1-0
9.470761
6-10
+2

31
22
Cleveland
0-1
12.61736
4-12
-3

32
32
Jacksonville
0-1
30.80261
0-16
-3


Denver took over the top spot behind a record-breaking night from Peyton Manning, who is back in MVP form just one year after coming back from several major neck surgeries. He tied the NFL record for most touchdown passes in a game, became just the second player to throw 7 touchdowns without an interception, and became the first QB to have 3 6-TD games in his career. The win over Baltimore was also the largest win over a defending Super Bowl champ to open a season in history, so it's not just Peyton setting records.

New Orleans welcomed back coach Sean Payton with a win over the Atlanta Falcons, who won the division last season while the Saints were in disarray following the bounty scandal. The Saints were the only team in the NFC South to win this weekend, which means that they already have a 1-game division lead heading into week 2, the only team that can make that claim.

Adrian Peterson may have had a huge game, scoring all 3 touchdowns for the Vikings, but the Detroit Lions were able to overcome his greatness and defeat the Vikings, with Reggie Bush accounting for 191 yards and a touchdown of his own. Detroit also had to overcome three turnovers, so they still have room for improvement, but they sure looked pretty good to open the season.

Upset picks are in italics.

Thursday

Troy at Arkansas State - Red Wolves by 2
Tulane at Louisiana Tech - Bulldogs by 2
(24) TCU at Texas Tech - Red Raiders by 13

NY Jets at New England - Patriots by 9

Friday

Air Force at Boise State - Broncos by 35

Saturday

Bowling Green at Indiana - Falcons by 15
(7) Louisville at Kentucky - Cardinals by 12
Akron at (11) Michigan - Wolverines by 47
Western Illinois at Minnesota - Golden Gophers by 32
Virginia Tech at East Carolina - Pirates by 1
(16) UCLA at (23) Nebraska - Bruins by 1
Tulsa at (14) Oklahoma - Sooners by 15
Georgia State at West Virginia - Mountaineers by 43
(5) Stanford at Army - Cardinal by 15
Southern Miss at Arkansas - Razorbacks by 9
Louisiana-Monroe at Wake Forest - Warhawks by 3
New Mexico at Pittsburgh - Panthers by 1
Eastern Michigan at Rutgers - Scarlet Knights by 28
Fordham at Temple - Owls by 27
Fresno State at Colorado - Bulldogs by 1
Youngstown State at Michigan State - Spartans by 35
Boston College at USC - Trojans by 14
Cal Poly at Colorado State - Rams by 32
Nevada at (10) Florida State - Seminoles by 32
Georgia Tech at Duke - Yellowjackets by 7
(1) Alabama at (6) Texas A&M - Crimson Tide by 7
Stony Brook at Buffalo - Bulls by 31
Delaware at Navy - Midshipmen by 39
Tennessee at (2) Oregon - Ducks by 35
Wagner at Syracuse - Orange by 40
Ball State at North Texas - Cardinals by 3
Northern Colorado at Wyoming - Cowboys by 36
Northern Illinois at Idaho - Huskies by 39
Iowa at Iowa State - Hawkeyes by 13
UCF at Penn State - Knights by 1
(19) Washington at Illinois - Huskies by 27
Bethune-Cookman at Florida International - Golden Panthers by 15
Southern Utah at Washington State - Cougars by 34
Mississippi State at Auburn - Tigers by 3
(4) Ohio State at California - Buckeyes by 35
Florida Atlantic at South Florida - Owls by 23
Kent State at (8) LSU - Tigers by 47
Nicholls State at Louisiana-Lafayette - Ragin Cajuns by 26
Northwestern State at Cincinnati - Bearcats by 39
Massachusetts at Kansas State - Wildcats by 33
Memphis at Middle Tennessee - Blue Raiders by 8
Vanderbilt at (13) South Carolina - Gamecocks by 19
Eastern Washington at Toledo - Rockets by 39
Western Kentucky at South Alabama - Hilltoppers by 10
Maryland at Connecticut - Terrapins by 24
Lamar at (12) Oklahoma State - Cowboys by 61
Kansas at Rice - Owls by 38
UTEP at New Mexico State - Miners by 6
Marshall at Ohio - Thundering Herd by 1
(25) Ole Miss at Texas - Longhorns by 11
Weber State at Utah State - Aggies by 46
(21) Notre Dame at Purdue - Fighting Irish by 23
Western Michigan at (17) Northwestern - Wildcats by 39
Oregon State at Utah - Utes by 22
Central Michigan at UNLV - Rebels by 7
UTSA at Arizona - Wildcats by 15
(20) Wisconsin at Arizona State - Sun Devils by 5

Sunday

Saint Louis at Atlanta - Falcons by 10
Carolina at Buffalo - Panthers by 13
Minnesota at Chicago - Bears by 10
Cleveland at Baltimore - Ravens by 11
Dallas at Kansas City - Cowboys by 1
Washington at Green Bay - Packers by 12
Tennessee at Houston - Titans by 3
Miami at Indianapolis - Dolphins by 8
San Diego at Philadelphia - Eagles by 15
Detroit at Arizona - Lions by 9
New Orleans at Tampa Bay - Saints by 11
Denver at NY Giants - Broncos by 15
Jacksonville at Oakland - Raiders by 24
San Francisco at Seattle - Seahawks by 9

Monday

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati - Bengals by 14

Most Confident Against the Spread

College

1. Florida Atlantic
2. Rice
3. New Mexico
4. Utah
5. Bowling Green
6. Buffalo
7. Washington
8. Maryland
9. Texas Tech
10. Ohio State

NFL

1. Oakland
2. Tennessee
3. Carolina
4. Miami
5. Denver

Prediction Results

College Football: 61-14 (.813) 120-30 overall (.800)
Upsets: 3-7 (.300) 6-12 overall (.333)
NFL: 9-7 (.563)
Upsets: 1-4 (.200)

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