With all of the excitement and possibilities for the playoffs entering the final weekend, the whole thing ended up a little anticlimactic, with no team changing positions in the final week. There are, however, a lot of very good matchups coming up in the playoffs, even if only a few teams have a realistic chance of even playing in the Super Bowl. Here are my rankings of the 12 remaining teams, along with various odds related to the upcoming postseason.
TW. Team (Record) Rating (LW)
1. New Orleans (13-3) -12.95 (1)
2. Green Bay (15-1) -10.40 (2)
3. New England (13-3) -9.56 (4)
4. San Francisco (13-3) -8.22 (3)
6. Detroit (10-6) -6.14 (6)
7. Pittsburgh (12-4) -4.80 (7)
8. Baltimore (12-4) -4.41 (9)
9. Atlanta (10-6) -3.97 (8)
10. NY Giants (9-7) -2.56 (13)
12. Houston (10-6) -2.12 (10)
18. Cincinnati (9-7) 0.21 (17)
28. Denver (8-8) 7.18 (28)
Best Teams Left Out
5. Philadelphia (8-8) -7.77 (5)
11. Seattle (7-9) -2.38 (11)
13. San Diego (8-8) -1.76 (16)
14. Dallas (8-8) -0.90 (12)
15. Miami (6-10) -0.85 (15)
16. NY Jets (8-8) -0.39 (18)
Odds of Making the Conference Championship
1. New England - 83.1%
2. Green Bay - 79.7%
3. Baltimore - 67.0%
4. San Francisco - 51.7%
5. New Orleans - 43.3%
6. Pittsburgh - 23.4%
7. Houston - 22.2%
8. NY Giants - 10.1%
Odds of Making the Super Bowl
1. New England - 63.8%
2. Green Bay - 48.7%
3. New Orleans - 24.1%
4. San Francisco- 21.4%
5. Baltimore - 20.7%
6. Pittsburgh - 9.2%
7. Houston - 6.1%
Odds of Winning the Super Bowl
1. New England - 30.5%
2. Green Bay - 28.7%
3. New Orleans - 16.0%
4. San Francisco - 11.2%
5. Baltimore - 6.8%
Odds of each Conference Winning the Super Bowl
NFC - 58.1%
AFC - 41.9%
Odds of each Seed Winning Super Bowl
#1 - 59.2%
#2 - 18.0%
#3 - 17.6%
#4 - 0.6%
#5 - 4.0%
#6 - 0.9%
Odds of Super Bowl XLV Rematch
Green Bay vs. Pittsburgh - 4.5%
Team with Worst Playoff Odds
Denver
Wins 1st round - 24.5%
Makes AFC Championship - 0.5%
Makes Super Bowl - 0.03%
Wins Super Bowl - 0%
Random Odds
For the Birds - Baltimore vs. Atlanta - 0.4%
Here, Kitty, Kitty - Detroit vs. Cincinnati - 0.01%
O, Pioneers - San Francisco vs. New England - 13.7%
First Timers - Houston vs. Detroit - 0.09%
Guaranteed First-time Winner - Detroit or Atlanta vs. Houston or Cincinnati - 0.3%
Battle of Harbaugh - San Francisco vs. Baltimore - 4.4%
Offensive Shootout - New Orleans, Green Bay, or Detroit vs. New England - 47.3%
Defensive Struggle - Pittsburgh, Baltimore, or Houston vs. San Francisco - 7.7%
Super Bowl MVP Faceoff - 69.9%
"New"bies - New Orleans or New York vs. New England - 16.5%
Big "D" - Denver vs. Detroit - 0.0005% (also least likely matchup)
Playoff Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
First Round
Cincinnati at Houston - Texans by 6
Detroit at New Orleans - Saints by 10
Atlanta at NY Giants - Giants by 2
Pittsburgh at Denver - Steelers by 9
Second Round
NY Giants at Green Bay - Packers by 11
New Orleans at San Francisco - Saints by 1
Pittsburgh at New England - Patriots by 8
Houston at Baltimore - Ravens by 6
Conference Championships
New Orleans at Green Bay - Packers by 1
Baltimore at New England - Patriots by 9
Super Bowl
Green Bay vs. New England - Packers by 1
New England may have the best odds of winning the Super Bowl, but that is only because they have the easiest path to get there. The AFC is a wasteland this year, with Houston starting a third-string quarterback, Pittsburgh missing Mendenhall and a hobbled quarterback, Cincinnati starring two rookies, and Denver with a quarterback who passes for less than 125 yards per game at less than a 50% completion percentage.
New England feels like a pretty safe pick to be in Indianapolis in February, but Green Bay, New Orleans, and San Francisco all have a decent chance to represent the NFC. If the Packers or Saints make it, look for them to take their second title in 3 seasons. If the 49ers somehow get in, look for Tom Brady to get another Super Bowl MVP.
Prediction Results
NFL: 12-4 (.750) 168-88 overall (.656)
Upsets: 2-2 (.500) 25-22 overall (.532)
No comments:
Post a Comment