NBA Rankings - 15 Jan

Now that three weeks of this shortened season are in the books, it is finally time to reveal my first NBA rankings of the 2011-2012 NBA season. Just like with all of my other rankings, these are based strictly on statistical facts, like home court advantage, margin of victory, and strength of schedule. Just for reference, I am also comparing mine to the statistical rankings of John Hollinger from ESPN. You will find his current rankings in parentheses right after each team's record and rating. Gaps between groups of teams represent different levels of performance.

TW. Team (Record) Rating (Holl)
1. Philadelphia (9-3) -5.42 (1)

2. Chicago (12-2) -3.71 (2)

3. Miami (8-4) -0.60 (3)
4. Atlanta (9-4) -0.19 (4)
5. Dallas (8-5) 0.11 (8)
6. Oklahoma City (11-2) 0.53 (5)
7. LA Clippers (6-3) 0.73 (9)
8. San Antonio (8-4) 0.96 (10)
9. Indiana (9-3) 1.20 (13)
10. Denver (8-4) 1.86 (6)
11. Orlando (8-3) 2.10 (12)
12. Portland (7-5) 2.57 (7)
13. LA Lakers (9-5) 3.49 (11)
14. Minnesota (4-8) 4.06 (14)

15. Houston (5-7) 5.39 (16)
16. Cleveland (5-6) 5.57 (17)
17. Memphis (5-6) 6.11 (15)

18. Utah (7-4) 7.33 (18)
19. New York (6-6) 7.92 (20)

20. Boston (4-7) 8.94 (22)
21. Phoenix (4-7) 9.51 (19)
22. Milwaukee (4-7) 9.81 (23)
23. Toronto (4-9) 10.39 (25)
24. New Orleans (3-9) 10.45 (24)
25. New Jersey (3-10) 10.61 (27)

26. Detroit (3-9) 11.84 (26)
27. Golden State (3-8) 11.97 (21)

28. Sacramento (4-9) 14.95 (28)
29. Washington (1-11) 15.27 (30)

30. Charlotte (3-10) 17.02 (29)

Only five teams are ranked more than 2 spots in my rankings from their spot in Hollinger's rankings: Dallas, Indiana, Denver, Portland, and Golden State. The discrepancy with these teams is most likely due to momentum, which has helped Dallas immensely since their horrible start, and has hurt Golden State and Portland, who have been on losing streaks lately after starting the season somewhat strongly.

Philadelphia is not a team you would normally think of as a powerful team, especially since they made the playoffs last year for the first time in a while, and they were eliminated in the first round, but this season they have been tearing up their competition, leading the league with a +15.2 point differential, meaning they outscore their opponents by an average of 101-86. They are #3 in scoring and #2 in scoring defense so far, and all three of their losses have been by single digits on the road to teams in playoff contention. The 76ers are for real.

The #2 team in point differential is Chicago, which has been average on offense but incredible on defense this season, a category in which they currently lead the league. They have the league's best record, just like last season, and defending MVP Derrick Rose hasn't even been playing as well as he did last year, so these Bulls could turn out to be this season's champions now that they have gained some playoff experience.

Minnesota is the best team with a losing record so far this season, and although their 4-8 mark may look like just another season for the Wolves, they are actually better than their record shows. Three of their losses were against the very best teams and came down to the final possession, and they opened up the new year with back-to-back home wins over the Mavericks and Spurs. Add to that a legitimate MVP candidate in Kevin Love, and you're looking at a team that could surprise everybody and make the playoffs for the first time since that other Kevin left town.

Charlotte may not own the worst record in the league, but they have been the least competitive team so far this season. Among their 10 losses are 8 by double digits, including four by more than 20 points and two by 30 or more. At least those losses came to pretty good teams, but even then, we are talking about what is supposed to be a professional basketball team, and I'm not sure they could beat most of the top 25 college teams right now, even in a 40-minute game.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Sunday

Golden State at Detroit - Pistons by 7
Utah at Denver - Nuggets by 12
Phoenix at San Antonio - Spurs by 14

Monday

Orlando at New York - Magic by 1
Chicago at Memphis - Bulls by 5
Milwaukee at Philadelphia - 76ers by 20
Houston at Washington - Rockets by 5
Cleveland at Charlotte - Cavaliers by 6
Portland at New Orleans - Trail Blazers by 3
New Jersey at LA Clippers - Clippers by 15
Toronto at Atlanta - Hawks by 16
Oklahoma City at Boston - Thunder by 3
Sacramento at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 16
Dallas at LA Lakers - Lakers by 2

Tuesday

Golden State at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 9
Charlotte at Orlando - Magic by 20
San Antonio at Miami - Heat by 7
Phoenix at Chicago - Bulls by 16
Detroit at Houston - Rockets by 9
Denver at Milwaukee - Nuggets by 5
LA Clippers at Utah - Jazz by 1

Wednesday

San Antonio at Orlando - Magic by 4
Denver at Philadelphia - 76ers by 14
Oklahoma City at Washington - Thunder by 10
Phoenix at New York - Knicks by 9
Toronto at Boston - Celtics by 7
Golden State at New Jersey - Nets by 8
Portland at Atlanta - Hawks by 8
Memphis at New Orleans - Hornets by 1
Detroit at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 15
Indiana at Sacramento - Pacers by 9
Dallas at LA Clippers - Clippers by 2

Thursday

New Orleans at Houston - Rockets by 12
LA Lakers at Miami - Heat by 9
Dallas at Utah - Mavericks by 1

Friday

Atlanta at Philadelphia - 76ers by 10
Denver at Washington - Nuggets by 8
Portland at Toronto - Trail Blazers by 3
Phoenix at Boston - Celtics by 6
Chicago at Cleveland - Bulls by 4
Memphis at Detroit - Grizzlies by 1
Milwaukee at New York - Knicks by 7
LA Lakers at Orlando - Magic by 8
Sacramento at San Antonio - Spurs by 19
Indiana at Golden State - Pacers by 6
Minnesota at LA Clippers - Clippers by 8

Saturday

Cleveland at Atlanta - Hawks by 11
Portland at Detroit - Trail Blazers by 4
Philadelphia at Miami - Heat by 2
Denver at New York - Nuggets by 1
Dallas at New Orleans - Mavericks by 5
Charlotte at Chicago - Bulls by 24
San Antonio at Houston - Rockets by 3
Oklahoma City at New Jersey - Thunder by 5
Sacramento at Memphis - Grizzlies by 14
Minnesota at Utah - Jazz by 4