Sunday, January 22, 2012

NBA Rankings - 22 Jan

Memphis and Houston enter today with 6-game winning streaks, but only one of them has played better than expected over that stretch, thereby allowing them to move up in the rankings. Meanwhile, a team that has lost 7 straight still moved up in my rankings due to the strength of their opponents and how close some of those losses were. Last week's #1 team lost twice this week when only one was expected, and as a result there is a new #1 team this week, and it happens to be the team that beat them yesterday. Here are the updated rankings, with gaps between groups of teams representing different levels of performance.

TW. Team (Week) (Overall) Rating (LW)
1. Miami (3-0) (11-4) -10.28 (3)

2. Chicago (3-1) (15-3) -8.91 (2)

3. Philadelphia (2-2) (11-5) -7.76 (1)

4. Denver (4-1) (12-5) -5.41 (10)
5. Atlanta (3-1) (12-5) -4.80 (4)
6. Memphis (4-0) (9-6) -4.34 (17)

7. Oklahoma City (2-1) (13-3) -3.31 (6)
8. Dallas (2-2) (10-7) -2.94 (5)
9. Portland (2-2) (9-7) -2.43 (12)
10. Utah (3-1) (10-5) -2.24 (18)
11. San Antonio (2-3) (10-7) -1.44 (8)
12. Orlando (3-1) (11-4) -1.03 (11)
13. LA Lakers (1-2) (10-7) -0.95 (13)
14. Indiana (1-1) (10-4) -0.70 (9)
15. Minnesota (3-1) (7-9) 0.05 (14)

16. Houston (4-0) (9-7) 1.16 (15)
17. LA Clippers (2-2) (8-5) 1.51 (7)
18. Phoenix (2-2) (6-9) 1.96 (21)
19. Milwaukee (1-2) (5-9) 2.40 (22)

20. New Orleans (0-4) (3-13) 3.95 (24)
21. Golden State (2-2) (5-10) 4.42 (27)
22. Boston (1-2) (5-9) 4.64 (20)

23. New York (0-4) (6-10) 6.84 (19)
24. New Jersey (1-2) (4-12) 7.09 (25)
25. Cleveland (1-3) (6-9) 7.69 (16)
26. Toronto (0-3) (4-12) 8.16 (23)
27. Detroit (1-4) (4-13) 8.32 (26)
28. Sacramento (2-2) (6-11) 8.70 (28)
29. Charlotte (0-3) (3-13) 9.00 (30)
30. Washington (1-2) (2-13) 9.92 (29)

Miami played only three games this week, and all were at home, but they were also all against very tough competition. They beat the Spurs, Lakers, and 76ers by an average of 18 points each this week, and they did it all without Dwyane Wade, who is out with a sprained ankle. All this has also given LeBron James the boost he needed to take over the top spot in my MVP rankings, which I posted yesterday.

Denver is now the top-rated team in the West, thanks to a four-game winning streak that has happened during an East Coast road trip. None of the wins was by a huge margin, and two of them were in overtime, but the win over Philadelphia along with the fact that all of the wins came on the road has made the Nuggets look stronger than anybody else on this side of the country.

Memphis is currently on a 6-game winning streak, but if you want to know why they are in the top 10, look no further than win #3 in that streak, a 16-point victory over the Chicago Bulls, the team with the best record in the NBA and the second-best team according to my formula. They are playing four road games on the West Coast this week against teams that are better on average than their recent opponents, so they may have a bit of trouble extending their streak much farther.

Utah's only loss this week came to the defending champs, and all three of their wins came against teams that I believe will make the playoffs, and all of those were also double-digit victories. The only two losses by the Jazz in 2012 came by 3 points to the two most recent Western Conference Champions, both still sporting their MVP's.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Monday

Washington at Philadelphia - 76ers by 22
Orlando at Boston - Magic by 1
San Antonio at New Orleans - Spurs by 1
New Jersey at Chicago - Bulls by 21
Atlanta at Milwaukee - Hawks by 3
Houston at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 6
Detroit at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 16
Phoenix at Dallas - Mavericks by 9
Sacramento at Portland - Trail Blazers by 16
Memphis at Golden State - Grizzlies by 4

Tuesday

Orlando at Indiana - Pacers by 4
New York at Charlotte - Bobcats by 2
Cleveland at Miami - Heat by 23
Toronto at Phoenix - Suns by 11
Memphis at Portland - Trail Blazers by 3

Wednesday

New York at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 4
New Jersey at Philadelphia - 76ers by 19
Charlotte at Washington - Wizards by 4
Miami at Detroit - Heat by 14
Indiana at Chicago - Bulls by 13
Milwaukee at Houston - Rockets by 6
New Orleans at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 12
Minnesota at Dallas - Mavericks by 7
Atlanta at San Antonio - Spurs by 1
Toronto at Utah - Jazz by 15
Denver at Sacramento - Nuggets by 10
Portland at Golden State - Trail Blazers by 2
LA Clippers vs. LA Lakers - Lakers by 3

Thursday

Boston at Orlando - Magic by 10
Memphis at LA Clippers - Grizzlies by 1

Friday

Charlotte at Philadelphia - 76ers by 21
Indiana at Boston - Pacers by 1
New Jersey at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 4
Atlanta at Detroit - Hawks by 9
Orlando at New Orleans - Magic by 1
Milwaukee at Chicago - Bulls by 16
Washington at Houston - Rockets by 13
New York at Miami - Heat by 22
San Antonio at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 3
Utah at Dallas - Mavericks by 5
Toronto at Denver - Nuggets by 18
Phoenix at Portland - Trail Blazers by 9
Oklahoma City at Golden State - Thunder by 3

Saturday

Detroit at Philadelphia - 76ers by 21
Washington at Charlotte - Bobcats by 5
New York at Houston - Rockets by 10
LA Lakers at Milwaukee - Bucks by 1
Sacramento at Utah - Jazz by 15
Memphis at Phoenix - Grizzlies by 2

Sunday

Chicago at Miami - Heat by 6
Cleveland at Boston - Celtics by 8
Toronto at New Jersey - Nets by 6
Indiana at Orlando - Magic by 5
San Antonio at Dallas - Mavericks by 6
Atlanta at New Orleans - Hawks by 4
LA Lakers at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 4
LA Clippers at Denver - Nuggets by 11

Prediction Results

NBA: 40-16 (.714)
Upsets: 4-3 (.571)

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