There was a whole slew of upsets this week, but unfortunately I didn't see most of them coming. As a result, five teams were dropped from the top 25, and most were replaced by teams that sprung upsets this week. There are 7 teams among my top 25 that come from the non-power conferences, and most of them are finally receiving votes in the national polls, even though I've had many of them ranked all season long. Here is my latest top 25, with gaps between groups of teams representing different levels of performance.
TW. (LW) Team (Week) (Overall) Rating (ESPN)
1. (1) Ohio State (1-1) (16-3) -20.79 (6)
2. (2) Syracuse (2-0) (19-0) -19.18 (1)
3. (4) Kansas (2-0) (14-3) -18.45 (7)
4. (5) Michigan State (1-1) (15-3) -17.42 (9)
5. (9) Missouri (2-0) (16-1) -16.39 (5)
6. (7) Kentucky (2-0) (17-1) -16.17 (2)
7. (6) Duke (2-0) (15-2) -15.25 (4)
8. (8) UNLV (0-1) (16-3) -15.15 (20)
9. (11) Wisconsin (2-0) (14-5) -14.86 (29)
10. (3) North Carolina (1-1) (15-3) -14.70 (8)
11. (25) Baylor (2-0) (17-0) -14.29 (3)
12. (15) Florida (2-0) (14-4) -13.87 (14)
13. (18) Wichita State (3-0) (15-3) -13.48 (33)
14. (13) BYU (1-0) (15-4) -13.26 (38)
15. (10) Indiana (0-2) (15-3) -13.01 (13)
16. (24) New Mexico (1-0) (15-2) -12.73 (28)
17. (NR) Memphis (2-0) (12-5) -12.45 (NR)
18. (NR) Florida State (2-0) (11-6) -12.22 (NR)
19. (NR) Georgetown (1-1) (14-3) -12.02 (12)
20. (NR) West Virginia (1-1) (13-5) -11.92 (33)
21. (22) Marquette (2-0) (14-4) -11.80 (22)
22. (19) Creighton (3-0) (16-2) -11.71 (18)
23. (21) Alabama (1-1) (13-4) -11.70 (35)
24. (23) California (2-0) (15-4) -11.04 (37)
25. (NR) Middle Tennessee (2-0) (17-2) -10.78 (30)
Dropped Out
(16) Kansas State (0-2) (12-4) -10.58 (27)
(14) Saint Mary's (3-0) (17-2) -10.35 (23)
(20) Saint Louis (1-1) (14-4) -10.31 (NR)
(12) Murray State (2-0) (18-0) -10.05 (10)
(17) Iona (1-1) (14-4) -10.00 (NR)
Ranked Teams By Conference
Big 10 - 4
Big East - 4
Big 12 - 3
SEC - 3
ACC - 3
MWC - 2
MVC - 2
WCC - 1
CUSA - 1
Pac 12 - 1
Sun Belt - 1
Baylor finally made their move in my rankings this week after they defied my upset pick for the second time this year (BYU and Kansas State), then destroyed Oklahoma State with an offensive explosion of 106 points on Saturday. Prior to the win over the Wildcats, their most impressive win was over the Cougars, which explains why I hadn't had them ranked higher up to this point. This week they have Kansas and Missouri on the schedule, by far the two toughest teams they have faced all year.
New Mexico lost a couple of embarrassing games early in the season, but lately they have been coming together, and they can now boast that they haven't lost a game since Thanksgiving Day. The Lobos beat Saint Louis last week, then avoided a potential upset at Wyoming this week. In the coming week, they face the two ranked teams in their conference, San Diego State and UNLV, and I feel that they will probably make quite a statement against the Aztecs on Wednesday.
Memphis is used to finding themselves among the national rankings, but they have rarely been among my top 25 over the years, but this season they have not lost any game to a bad team, with all 5 losses coming to teams currently ranked in the top 25. They still haven't beaten a ranked team, and they don't have one left on the schedule, but they have beaten Belmont and they can beat Xavier next month for a quality win.
Florida State won a very difficult road game this week at Virginia Tech, but that's not the reason you're seeing them here today. On Saturday they pulled the biggest upset of the season so far, as they led by double digits for the entire second half against #3 North Carolina and ended up winning in a 33-point blowout. The Seminoles have lost more games than any other team in my rankings, but that win alone makes them a team to be feared.
Middle Tennessee found themselves in the top 25 finally after starting their conference schedule 6-0, and though they don't have any ranked teams on their schedule, they have beaten two teams from the power conferences, UCLA and Mississippi, and they have split wins with Belmont, still a conference leader even if they're not the power they were last year. They may not lose another game this year, and even if they do, it will only be once or twice.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Tuesday
Arkansas at (2) Kentucky - Wildcats by 20
(9) Michigan State at (19) Michigan - Spartans by 3
(12) Georgetown at DePaul - Hoyas by 7
Maryland at Florida State - Seminoles by 22
Wednesday
(10) Murray State at Morehead State - Racers by 6
Cincinnati at (11) Connecticut - Huskies by 11
(13) Indiana at Nebraska - Hoosiers by 5
(15) Mississippi State at Mississippi - Rebels by 2
(16) San Diego State at New Mexico - Lobos by 15
(18) Creighton at Missouri State - Bears by 2
TCU at (20) UNLV - Rebels by 25
Wichita State at Northern Iowa - Shockers by 1
Northwestern at Wisconsin - Badgers by 16
Memphis at UCF - Tigers by 1
Marshall at West Virginia - Mountaineers by 12
Thursday
Wake Forest at (4) Duke - Blue Devils by 28
(8) North Carolina at Virginia Tech - Tar Heels by 1
(17) Virginia at Georgia Tech - Yellowjackets by 1
Pepperdine at (23) Saint Mary's - Gaels by 25
(25) Illinois at Penn State - Fighting Illini by 2
Loyola Marymount at BYU - Cougars by 21
Vanderbilt at Alabama - Crimson Tide by 12
California at Washington - Golden Bears by 2
Arkansas State at Middle Tennessee State - Blue Raiders by 25
Saturday
(1) Syracuse at Notre Dame - Orange by 9
Alabama at (2) Kentucky - Wildcats by 12
(5) Missouri at (3) Baylor - Bears by 5
Florida State at (4) Duke - Blue Devils by 10
(6) Ohio State at Nebraska - Buckeyes by 13
(7) Kansas at Texas - Jayhawks by 2
Purdue at (9) Michigan State - Spartans by 15
(10) Murray State at SIU-Edwardsville - Racers by 15
(11) Connecticut at Tennessee - Volunteers by 2
Rutgers at (12) Georgetown - Hoyas by 16
LSU at (14) Florida - Gators by 17
(15) Mississippi State at Vanderbilt - Commodores by 9
Air Force at (16) San Diego State - Aztecs by 13
Indiana State at (18) Creighton - Bluejays by 21
(19) Michigan at Arkansas - Razorbacks by 4
New Mexico at (20) UNLV - Rebels by 10
(21) Louisville at Pittsburgh - Panthers by 5
(22) Marquette at Providence - Golden Eagles by 3
(23) Saint Mary's at Santa Clara - Gaels by 11
(24) Harvard at Dartmouth - Crimson by 9
BYU at Pepperdine - Cougars by 14
Southern Illinois at Wichita State - Shockers by 25
California at Washington State - Golden Bears by 3
Middle Tennessee State at Southern Alabama - Blue Raiders by 5
SMU at Memphis - Tigers by 23
Cincinnati at West Virginia - Mountaineers by 13
Sunday
Penn State at (13) Indiana - Hoosiers by 22
Virginia Tech at (17) Virginia - Cavaliers by 10
Wisconsin at (25) Illinois - Fighting Illini by 1
Prediction Results
College Basketball: 43-15 (.741) 248-44 overall (.849)
Upsets: 1-4 (.200) 19-8 overall (.704)
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