Once again, my predictions on which teams would be upset this week proved to be largely correct, with 4 correct upset picks with one near miss tarnishing another perfect week. All of my picks are based on these statistical rankings, which compares each team to every other team in the nation by comparing how each team should fare in each game with their actual results. Wisconsin, which had been #1 for 3 weeks, had a disappointing performance against Iowa, which has allowed another team to overtake them for the top spot. Here are the updated rankings, with gaps between groups of teams representing different levels of performance.
TW. (LW) Team (Week) (Overall) Rating (ESPN)
1. (4) Ohio State (1-1) (13-2) -20.14 (7)
2. (3) North Carolina (2-0) (13-2) -18.98 (4)
3. (5) Syracuse (2-0) (15-0) -18.73 (1)
4. (1) Wisconsin (1-1) (12-3) -18.12 (19)
5. (6) Kentucky (2-0) (13-1) -17.61 (2)
6. (15) Kansas (2-0) (10-3) -17.18 (15)
7. (22) Saint Mary's (2-0) (13-2) -16.54 (27)
8. (2) Indiana (1-1) (13-1) -16.51 (12)
9. (16) Duke (2-0) (12-1) -16.48 (3)
10. (12) Michigan State (2-0) (13-2) -15.66 (11)
11. (9) Florida (1-1) (11-3) -14.88 (14)
12. (19) Wichita State (1-1) (10-3) -14.84 (NR)
13. (8) Baylor (1-0) (13-0) -14.17 (5)
14. (NR) Murray State (1-0) (14-0) -14.13 (18)
15. (11) UNLV (2-0) (15-2) -13.79 (17)
16. (13) BYU (2-1) (12-4) -13.56 (NR)
17. (14) Missouri (1-0) (13-0) -13.32 (6)
18. (21) Saint Louis (1-1) (12-2) -13.12 (36)
19. (10) Creighton (1-1) (11-2) -12.71 (24)
20. (NR) New Mexico (2-0) (12-2) -12.56 (29)
21. (20) Georgetown (2-0) (12-1) -11.91 (9)
22. (NR) Kansas State (1-0) (11-1) -11.38 (22)
23. (7) Marquette (1-1) (12-2) -10.76 (20)
24. (NR) Belmont (1-0) (9-5) -10.69 (NR)
25. (NR) Virginia Tech (1-0) (11-3) -10.25 (NR)
Dropped Out
(23) Texas (1-0) (10-3) -9.490 (NR)
(24) Harvard (2-0) (12-1) -9.486 (21)
(17) Iona (0-1) (10-3) -9.40 (NR)
(25) California (2-0) (12-3) -9.04 (NR)
(18) Ohio (1-0) (12-1) -8.25 (NR)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Big 10 - 4
Big 12 - 4
ACC - 3
Big East - 3
SEC - 2
WCC - 2
MVC - 2
MWC - 2
OVC - 1
Atl 10 - 1
Atl Sun - 1
Ohio State took over the top spot despite losing on Saturday to Indiana. The reason that they were able to move up was that they were on the road, and Indiana was ranked ahead of the Buckeyes in my rankings entering last week. Their two losses are both on the road at top 8 teams, but they also own victories over Florida and Duke, who are both in the top 11. The Buckeyes appear to be the best team so far in a very deep conference.
Kansas won both of its games this week by an average of 40 points, and although neither was against a notable opponent, the fact that they were able to dominate that way was enough to earn them a spot in the top ten. They were picked to beat Howard and North Dakota by about 30 points each, so that extra 10 points was huge.
Saint Mary's had one of its biggest tests of the season this week when BYU came to visit, and they gained a lot of credibility by beating up on a team that has not been blown out by anyone but Wisconsin this year. They followed that up with a 29-point road victory, and while the opponent was just Pepperdine, any blowout on the road is impressive.
Just like last time that Indiana pulled off a huge upset, they dropped in my overall rankings immediately afterward. Both times Indiana should have won those upsets by more than they did, and they also lost to Michigan State this week by more than they should have. Still, this team is one that you need to keep your eye on throughout the season and deep into March, because they've proven they can win the big ones.
Marquette took a huge tumble this week after Vanderbilt came to town and took the Golden Eagles out behind their own woodshed. After 12 minutes of play, the Commodores led the home team 35-8, and Marquette was never able to fully recover. Their only quality win of the season, over Wisconsin, also took a hit this week when the Badgers were upset unexpectedly by a very weak Iowa team in Madison.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Tuesday
Arkansas-Little Rock at (2) Kentucky - Wildcats by 27
Oklahoma at (6) Missouri - Tigers by 14
Nebraska at (7) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 32
(8) Connecticut at Seton Hall - Pirates by 10
(10) Louisville at Saint Johns - Cardinals by 4
(11) Michigan State at (19) Wisconsin - Badgers by 11
UAB at (14) Florida - Gators by 23
(21) Harvard at Fordham - Crimson by 8
Drake at (24) Creighton - Bluejays by 25
Houston Baptist at New Mexico - Lobos by 36
Wednesday
(1) Syracuse at Providence - Orange by 11
(3) Duke at Temple - Owls by 1
(20) Marquette at (9) Georgetown - Hoyas by 10
(22) Kansas State at (15) Kansas - Jayhawks by 14
Eastern Kentucky at (18) Murray State - Racers by 25
Saint Louis at Dayton - Billikens by 2
Wichita State at Evansville - Shockers by 7
Belmont at Jacksonville - Bruins by 6
Thursday
(13) Michigan at (12) Indiana - Hoosiers by 21
(17) UNLV at Cal State-Bakersfield - Rebels by 6
BYU at Loyola Marymount - Cougars by 9
Saint Mary's at San Diego - Gaels by 19
Friday
Lipscomb at Belmont - Bruins by 21
Saturday
(20) Marquette at (1) Syracuse - Orange by 17
South Carolina at (2) Kentucky - Wildcats by 28
(3) Duke at Georgia Tech - Blue Devils by 7
Boston College at (4) North Carolina - Tar Heels by 39
(5) Baylor at Texas Tech - Bears by 9
(6) Missouri at (22) Kansas State - Wildcats by 7
(7) Ohio State at Iowa - Buckeyes by 10
(8) Connecticut at Rutgers - Scarlet Knights by 3
(9) Georgetown at West Virginia - Mountaineers by 5
Notre Dame at (10) Louisville - Cardinals by 11
(14) Florida at Tennessee - Gators by 4
(15) Kansas at Oklahoma - Jayhawks by 1
(16) Mississippi State at Arkansas - Razorbacks by 6
(18) Murray State at Austin Peay - Racers by 7
Dartmouth at (21) Harvard - Crimson by 27
Miami at (23) Virginia - Cavaliers by 6
(24) Creighton at Bradley - Bluejays by 10
San Francisco at BYU - Cougars by 27
George Washington at Saint Louis - Billikens by 26
Wichita State at Southern Illinois - Shockers by 12
Virginia Tech at Wake Forest - Hokies by 4
North Dakota at New Mexico - Lobos by 27
Sunday
(11) Wisconsin at (16) Michigan - Badgers by 6
(15) Indiana at Penn State - Hoosiers by 11
Prediction Results
College Basketball: 43-8 (.843) 165-22 overall (.882)
Upsets: 4-1 (.800) 12-3 overall (.800)
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