NBA Regular Season and Playoff Predictions - 17 Mar

John Hollinger at ESPN has a daily feature called Playoff Odds in which he uses his own team ranking formula to determine the likelihood of each team making the playoffs, along with a projected final record for each team. To do this, he has a computer play out the remainder of the season 5000 times, then reports the percentage of those times that each team makes the playoffs and their average final record, along with a few other fun numbers. I have used each team's odds of winning each remaining game according to my formula in order to determine each team's likely final regular season record, and the results are eerily similar to Hollinger's. In fact, only 6 teams ended up with a different record with my system, and each was only one game away from his. Here are the final projected standings for each conference, along with their predicted playoff results. Any difference from Hollinger's prediction is noted after the team's projected record.

East

1. Chicago (60-22)

2. Boston (59-23) +1

3. Miami (57-25) +1

4. Orlando (52-30)

5. Atlanta (46-36)

6. Philadelphia (43-39)

7. New York (43-39)

8. Indiana (36-46)

9. Charlotte (34-48) -1

10. Milwaukee (33-49)

11. Detroit (29-53) -1

12. New Jersey (28-54)

13. Toronto (22-60)

14. Washington (20-62)

15. Cleveland (17-65) -1

West

1. San Antonio (64-18) +1

2. LA Lakers (59-23)

3. Dallas (57-25)

4. Oklahoma City (54-28)

5. Denver (50-32)

6. New Orleans (46-36)

7. Portland (46-36)

8. Memphis (45-37)

9. Houston (43-39)

10. Phoenix (41-41)

11. Utah (41-41)

12. Golden State (35-47)

13. LA Clippers (31-51)

14. Minnesota (20-62)

15. Sacramento (20-62)

Playoffs

First Round

Bulls over Pacers in 5

Celtics over Knicks in 5

Heat over 76ers in 6

Magic over Hawks in 6

Spurs over Grizzlies in 6

Lakers over Blazers in 5

Mavericks over Hornets in 7

Nuggets over Thunder in 7

Second Round

Bulls over Magic in 7

Heat over Celtics in 7

Spurs over Nuggets in 7

Lakers over Mavericks in 6

Conference Finals

Bulls over Heat in 7

Lakers over Spurs in 7

Finals

Bulls over Lakers in 7

The Bulls would be able to take advantage of playing on their home court to beat better teams in the final two rounds and win their first championship since Michael Jordan left in 1998. The First Round in the East looks pretty certain, but other than the Spurs and Lakers winning the early rounds out West, anything could happen.