Worst At-Large Teams Allowed In
These are the worst teams that were selected by the Selection Committee to participate in the tournament without winning their conference tournament. Their ranking according to my formula is in parentheses, followed by their seed and region.
1. VCU (84) 11-SW
2. UCLA (68) 7-SE
3. Georgia (63) 10-E
4. UAB (62) 12-E
5. Tennessee (55) 9-W
6. Penn State (53) 10-W
7. USC (49) 11-SW
8. Xavier (48) 6-E
Surprisingly, two of these teams not only made the field, but were awarded higher seeds. Look for most of these teams to fall in the first round.
Best Teams Left Out
A big deal is always made about which teams should have been in and which should have been left out. The top six teams on this list are the ones I would have included at the expense of the top six on the previous list. Once again, their ranking according to my formula is in parentheses.
1. Maryland (23)
2. Virginia Tech (27)
3. Saint Mary's (28)
4. New Mexico (38)
5. Washington State (42)
6. Colorado (47)
7. Northwestern (51)
8. Duquesne (52)
Virginia Tech, Saint Mary's, and Colorado were the three most talked-about snubs on ESPN yesterday, but there were a couple of others that were worth noticing. Each one had some major holes in their resume, but also had enough good points that they should have been in.
Most Underseeded
These are the teams that I feel were seeded far too low for their talent, and in most cases it will allow those teams to surprise some higher-seeded teams.
1. Belmont
2T. Washington
2T. Gonzaga
2T. Utah State
5. Illinois
6T. Texas
6T. UNLV
6T. Marquette
6T. Missouri
6T. Clemson
Most Overseeded
These are the teams that least deserved the seeding they were awarded, and it could set them up to fall earlier than expected.
1T. Xavier
1T. UCLA
3T. Florida
3T. Saint John's
5T. Kansas State
5T. Temple
5T. Tennessee
5T. Old Dominion
You'll notice that a lot of these teams are the same ones on the list of worst teams allowed into the tournament, which is not a coincidence. Some of these teams were seeded highly even though they shouldn't have even been in, and others, like Florida, just should have been seeded lower.
Regions With the Most Teams Seeded Incorrectly
This is a measure of how many teams in each region are seeded at least 3 spots below or above where they should be.
Southeast: 8
East: 4
West: 3
Southwest: 2
You'll notice that nearly half of the teams in the Southeast Region have been seeded poorly, with high seeds like Florida, Saint John's and UCLA too high and low seeds like Belmont, Gonzaga, and Utah State severely underseeded, which should make that region a very fun one to watch if you love upsets.
Number of Upsets Predicted in the First Round
Technically it's now called the second round, but I'm a traditionalist. The likely number of upsets you should expect to see in the first round is 10.2, which means that the number will almost definitely fall between 8 and 13. Some of those are much more likely than others, and some will come as a complete shock, like Ohio over Georgetown last year.
Most Likely First Round Upsets
These are the 10 upsets that I believe are most likely to occur in the first round, with the likelihood of the upset happening listed after the matchup.
1. (10) Michigan State over (7) UCLA - 57.9%
2. (11) Gonzaga over (6) Saint John's - 57.0%
3. (11) Marquette over (6) Xavier - 53.7%
4. (12) Utah State over (5) Kansas State - 52.0%
5. (9) Illinois over (8) UNLV - 51.5%
6. (13) Belmont over (4) Wisconsin - 51.3%
7. (10) Florida State over (7) Texas A&M - 51.0%
8. (9) Villanova over (8) George Mason - 49.7%
9. (11) Missouri over (6) Cincinnati - 49.3%
10. (10) Penn State over (7) Temple - 46.9%
The odds of all of these upsets happening is slim, but if you're looking for a few good upsets for your bracket, this is a good place to start. There will most likely be even more than this, but these are the ones that would surprise me least.
Most Likely Cinderellas
These are the lower-seeded teams most likely to make it through the first weekend of the tournament, with their odds of making the Sweet 16 after their name.
1. Belmont - 31.7%
2. Michigan State - 29.0%
3. Gonzaga - 25.9%
4. Marquette - 24.6%
5. Missouri - 24.3%
6. Florida State - 22.5%
7. Utah State - 20.7%
8. Richmond - 16.8%
9. Illinois - 16.0%
10. Penn State - 14.8%
There are a few of these teams (Missouri, Richmond, and Penn State) that I'm not even picking to win in the first round, but they're good enough that if they pull off the first round upset they will most likely make it to the Sweet 16.
Number of #1 Seeds in the Final Four
The number of #1 seeds I'm predicting to make the Final Four is 1.3, which means that 1 or 2 will be very likely, but 0, 3, or 4 will most likely not happen.
Number of Double Digit Seeds in the Sweet 16
3.3, which means that the number will likely fall somewhere between 2 and 5.
Odds of a #1 Seed Winning the Tournament
44.8%
Most Likely to Make the Sweet 16
These are the 10 teams most likely to make the sweet 16, with their odds of advancing that far after their name, followed by their seed and region.
1. Duke - 82.2% - 1W
2. Ohio State - 77.6% - 1E
3. Kansas - 69.6% - 1SW
4. Pittsburgh - 63.8% - 1SE
5. San Diego State - 62.4% - 2W
6. Purdue - 56.2% - 3SW
7. Kentucky - 55.5% - 4E
8. Notre Dame - 52.3% - 2SW
9. BYU - 51.2% - 3SE
10. Syracuse - 50.4% - 3E
You'll notice that 2 of the #2 seeds, North Carolina and Florida, don't appear on this list, while there is a #4 (Kentucky) on the list. The most likely of the #2's to advance happens to be the one from the non-power conference that many felt was unworthy of its ranking.
Most Likely to make the Final Four
1. Duke - 39.8% - 1W
2. Ohio State - 37.3% - 1E
3. Kansas - 34.1% - 1SW
4. Pittsburgh - 22.3% - 1SE
5. San Diego State - 19.7% - 2W
6. BYU - 19.0% - 3SE
7. Purdue - 16.0% - 3SW
8. Kentucky - 14.8% - 4E
9. Texas - 13.1% - 4W
10. Notre Dame - 12.5% - 2SW
The top 5 remain the same from the Sweet 16 odds, but BYU's odds of making the Final Four are much higher than some of the competition from other regions, due almost entirely to the level of competition they could possibly face on their way there. Texas also moved up on this list, joining Duke and San Diego State to eat up the odds in the West Region.
Most Likely to Win the Championship
1. Duke - 15.7% - 1W
2. Ohio State - 14.5% - 1E
3. Kansas - 10.3% - 1SW
4. San Diego State - 5.5% - 2W
5. Pittsburgh - 4.3% - 1SE
6. Kentucky - 4.0% - 4E
7. BYU - 3.6% - 3SE
8. Texas - 3.6% - 4W
9. Purdue - 3.1% - 3SW
10. Washington - 3.1% - 7E
There is a very interesting team making an appearance at the bottom of this list. Washington is the main reason that North Carolina doesn't appear on any of these lists, because the two teams will likely face each other in the second round. San Diego State is the only #2 seed among the top 10 most likely champions, a sign that the #2's were poorly selected.
Overall Bracket
Upset picks are in italics.
First Round
(1) Ohio State
(9) Villanova
(5) West Virginia
(4) Kentucky
(11) Marquette
(3) Syracuse
(7) Washington
(2) North Carolina
(1) Duke
(8) Michigan
(5) Arizona
(4) Texas
(11) Missouri
(3) Connecticut
(10) Penn State
(2) San Diego State
(1) Kansas
(9) Illinois
(5) Vanderbilt
(4) Louisville
(6) Georgetown
(3) Purdue
(10) Florida State
(2) Notre Dame
(1) Pittsburgh
(8) Butler
(12) Utah State
(13) Belmont
(11) Gonzaga
(3) BYU
(10) Michigan State
(2) Florida
Sweet 16
(1) Ohio State
(4) Kentucky
(3) Syracuse
(7) Washington
(1) Duke
(4) Texas
(3) Connecticut
(2) San Diego State
(1) Kansas
(4) Louisville
(3) Purdue
(2) Notre Dame
(1) Pittsburgh
(13) Belmont
(3) BYU
(2) Florida
Elite Eight
(1) Ohio State
(7) Washington
(1) Duke
(2) San Diego State
(1) Kansas
(3) Purdue
(1) Pittsburgh
(3) BYU
Final Four
(1) Ohio State
(1) Duke
(1) Kansas
(3) BYU
Championship
Duke over Kansas
Before the bracket was announced, I did not think that BYU had much of a chance to make the Final Four, but the bracket was set up in a way that makes the potential matchups very favorable for the Cougars. I don't think that 3 #1's will make the Final Four, but I could not decide which of the other 3 would be left out. On a side note, if Duke were to miss the Final Four, I would take Ohio State over Kansas in the championship game.
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