Wednesday, March 2, 2011

College Basketball Rankings - 2 Mar

There were a lot of upsets this week, most notably Virginia Tech over Duke and everyone over Texas, which caused quite a bit of shifting around all throughout the rankings as we head into conference tournament season. Duke's loss cost them the top spot, which was quickly snapped up by another former #1, but there will probably be even more switching at the top before the champion is determined in just over a month. Here are this week's rankings, with team name followed by weekly record, overall record, rating, and previous ranking.

1. Ohio State (2-0) (28-2) -22.91 (3)
2. Kansas (1-0) (27-2) -22.41 (2)
3. Duke (1-1) (26-3) -22.33 (1)
4. BYU (2-0) (27-2) -20.25 (4)
5. Purdue (3-0) (25-5) -18.81 (7)
6. Pittsburgh (1-1) (25-4) -18.36 (9)
7. Texas (0-2) (24-6) -17.99 (5)
8. San Diego State (1-1) (28-2) -17.32 (10)
9. Washington (0-1) (19-9) -17.25 (6)
10. Kentucky (2-1) (21-8) -17.24 (8)
11. Wisconsin (2-0) (22-6) -17.16 (11)
12. Belmont (2-0) (27-4) -16.29 (17)
13. North Carolina (2-0) (22-6) -16.09 (14)
14. Syracuse (1-0) (24-6) -15.57 (16)
15. Notre Dame (3-0) (24-5) -15.33 (18)
16. Louisville (1-0) (22-7) -14.70 (15)
17. Vanderbilt (1-1) (21-8) -14.61 (NR)
18. Georgetown (0-2) (21-8) -14.55 (12)
19. Illinois (1-1) (18-12) -14.24 (20)
20. Maryland (1-1) (18-11) -14.17 (19)
21. Arizona (0-2) (23-6) -13.76 (13)
22. West Virginia (1-1) (18-10) -13.68 (22)
23. Connecticut (1-1) (21-7) -13.66 (NR)
24. Marquette (2-0) (18-11) -13.62 (NR)
25. Florida (2-1) (23-6) -13.41 (NR)

Dropping out:
Missouri (1-2) (22-8) -13.06 (21)
George Mason (2-0) (25-5) -12.72 (23)
UNLV (2-0) (22-7) -12.49 (24)
Villanova (0-2) (21-9) -12.04 (25)

Ranked Teams by Conference

Big East: 8
Big 10: 4
ACC: 3
SEC: 3
Big 12: 2
MWC: 2
Pac 10: 2
Atl Sun: 1

The next 10 teams include 3 more from the Big East, along with two from the Big 12 and two from the West Coast.

Marching into March

Gonzaga closed out the regular season in style, beating Saint Mary's on the road to earn a tie at the top of the stadings, then won their final two games by a combined 84 points, while those two opponents scored a total of 80 between them. We may not have to endure March without our favorite Cinderallas after all.

Kansas State won a tough road game against Nebraska before pulling off two more huge upsets of ranked teams, beating Missouri by 10 and Texas by 5, just two weeks after beating Kansas by 16. They have only lost to one team ranked outside my top 51, but their season has been viewed by many as a disappointment. They may have just turned that around.

In Washington State's lone game this week, they went on the road and beat the Washington Huskies by 11 points, a team that, despite not being ranked nationally, is still sitting just inside my top 10. Recent losses, especially the one at Arizona State, really hurt their chances of making the NCAA's, but they should be a very strong NIT team.

Florida did lose a game at Kentucky this week, but they did keep it closer than I expected, then they wiped out SEC West leader Alabama last night by 27 points, proving definitively that the SEC East is the more powerful division in basketball. They entered my top 25 for the first time since early December, when a loss to UCF dropped them from the rankings.

Something's got to give this weekend when Vanderbilt faces fellow hot lister Florida in the regular season finale. This week Vandy destroyed LSU on the road before nearly pulling off a win in Kentucky last night, losing by only 2 points.

Falling out of February

Despite being the current leader of the SEC West, Alabama has lost two straight road games, showing that they have no realistic chance at the SEC title or the NCAA Tournament. They'll probably end the regular season with a third straight loss when they face Georgia on Saturday.

Michigan State took a huge hit this week when they lost at home to Purdue by 20 points, which is not a good thing for a team sitting on the tournament bubble. I still think they should be in, but I'm not sure the selection committee will see it the same way.

After looking so good just a week ago when they nearly beat Arizona on the road, Washington lost a very important home game to the Washington State Cougars that has made the conference tournament much more important to the Huskies. They may need to make it clear to the championship game just to have a chance at March Madness, and even that might not be enough.

Just one month ago, Duquesne was in first place in the Atlantic 10 and had an 11-game winning streak, and I had them ranked in my top 25 for a few days, but since then the Dukes have fallen apart, winning only once in their last 6 games, most of those to inferior competition. After looking like they had a chance at an at-large bid last month, they now must win their conference to get in.

Last week, Arizona had an 8-game winning streak, a top-10 ranking, and was coming off a win over chief conference rival Washington, but then they went to Los Angeles and were swept by USC and UCLA, the latter loss coming by 22 points, which allowed the Bruins to pull into a tie with the Wildcats for the conference lead. They can't afford to lose to either of the Oregon schools this weekend if they don't want to fall back onto the bubble.

NBA Player of the Day

Jose Calderon - TOR - 22 pts, 7 reb, 16 ast, 7-10 FG, 3-4 3P, 5-5 FT
Calderon made up for his performance last time Toronto faced New Orleans, when he was held scoreless, by taking over the game, ending up just 3 rebounds away from a triple-double and hitting the free throws that sealed the upset.

Predictions - 2 Mar

Upset picks are in italics.
Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Bulls at Hawks - Bulls by 3
Spurs at Cavaliers - Spurs by 13
Warriors at Wizards - Warriors by 1
Suns at Celtics - Celtics by 9
Timberwolves at Pistons - Pistons by 5
Hornets at Knicks - Knicks by 1
Pacers at Thunder - Thunder by 6
Bobcats at Nuggets - Nuggets by 8
Trail Blazers at Kings - Blazers by 3
Rockets at Clippers - Rockets by 2

College Basketball

(22) Texas A&M at (2) Kansas - Kansas by 18
New Mexico at (3) BYU - BYU by 16
Clemson at (4) Duke - Duke by 18
(5) Pittsburgh at South Florida - Pitt by 11
Providence at (11) Louisville - Louisville by 16
(13) North Carolina at Florida State - Florida State by 1
(16) Connecticut at West Virginia - West Virginia by 6
(21) Utah State at New Mexico State - Utah State by 5
Kennesaw State vs. Belmont - Belmont by 30
Maryland at Miami - Maryland by 1
Cincinnati at Marquette - Marquette by 7

Prediction Results - 1 Mar

NBA: 4-4 (.500) 509-208 overall (.710)
College Basketball: 6-0 (1.000) 511-123 overall (.806)
Upsets: 2-1 (.667) 136-84 overall (.618)

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