NBA Playoff Odds - 30 Apr

The first round has come to an end, and the second round starts tomorrow, so today is the perfect time to update the odds of each team advancing in the playoffs. Three teams that I originally predicted to be here at this point have gone home, but Oklahoma City and Memphis were my #1 and #3 underdogs, so neither was a huge surprise. Atlanta, however, blew me out of the water by manhandling the Magic, but I don't expect that to continue against Chicago. Here are the updated odds, with change from Monday in parentheses.

Odds of Making Conference Finals

1. Chicago - 96.1% (+11.3)

2. Miami - 71.7% (-1.0)

3. Oklahoma City - 62.4% (+9.1)

4. LA Lakers - 60.6% (+10.0)

5. Dallas - 39.4% (+6.6)

6. Memphis - 37.6% (+19.0)

7. Boston - 28.3% (+1.2)

8. Atlanta - 3.9% (N/A)

Memphis made a strong move up this week because they made it out of the first round, which was only a 56% chance a week ago, so the odds of San Antonio making the Conference Finals were absorbed into the other Western Conference contenders, all of which strengthened their chances with the Spurs' defeat. Chicago faces the weakest team possible for the second straight round, and if that trend continues they will face Boston and Memphis in the remaining rounds.

Odds of making the NBA Finals

1. Chicago - 53.1% (+9.2)

2. LA Lakers - 40.3% (+10.7)

3. Miami - 37.2% (-5.0)

4. Oklahoma City - 24.8% (-1.5)

5. Dallas - 23.3% (+6.2)

6. Memphis - 11.6% (+5.1)

7. Boston - 9.4% (-0.8)

8. Atlanta - 0.2% (N/A)

Chicago's odds are so high because they most likely will be in the Conference Finals without a fight, while Miami has to go through a very tough Boston team that has been to two Finals in three years. The Lakers are becoming a stronger favorite in the West, thanks to the Spurs losing and giving LA home court for the next two rounds.

Odds of Winning the Championship

1. Chicago - 34.0% (+5.9)

2. Miami - 24.9% (-4.6)

3. LA Lakers - 17.5% (+5.3)

4. Dallas - 8.4% (+2.4)

5. Oklahoma City - 8.2% (-1.2)

6. Boston - 4.2% (-0.5)

7. Memphis - 2.9% (N/A)

8. Atlanta - 0.0% (N/A)

The odds are over 75% that Chicago, Miami, or the Lakers will win the championship, which should not surprise many people. Dallas and Oklahoma City could have a chance, while Boston and Memphis are pretty unlikely. Atlanta will not win the championship, barring injuries to LeBron, Kobe, Rose, Dirk, Durant, Rondo, and Z-Bo.

NBA Player of the Day

Zach Randolph - MEM - 31 pts, 11 reb, 2 ast, 12-22 FG, 7-8 FT

Randolph took over the 4th quarter for Memphis last night, scoring 17 points in the final period, including the clinching free throws in the closing seconds. It was the first ever series win for the Grizzlies, and only the 4th time in history that an 8th seed upset the top seed in the conference.

Predictions - 30 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

MLB

Angels at Rays - Rays by 0.3

Cardinals at Braves - Braves by 0.1

Mets at Phillies - Phillies by 1.2

Blue Jays at Yankees - Jays by 1.3

Rangers at Athletics - A's by 1.0

Giants at Nationals - Nats by 0.6

Tigers at Indians - Indians by 1.7

Brewers at Astros - Brewers by 2.0

Mariners at Red Sox - Sox by 1.7

Orioles at White Sox - Sox by 1.0

Twins at Royals - Royals by 0.9

Marlins at Reds - Marlins by 1.3

Cubs at Diamondbacks - D-Backs by 3.4

Pirates at Rockies - Rockies by 0.9

Padres at Dodgers - Dodgers by 0.8

Prediction Results - 29 Apr

NBA Playoffs: 1-0 (1.000) 33-11 overall (.750)

MLB: 6-9 (.400) 130-117 overall (.526)

Upsets: 2-2 (.500) 217-145 overall (.599)

NBA Playoff MVP Rankings - 29 Apr

Last week's playoff MVP leader, Dwight Howard, is no more. After tearing up the Hawks initially, he had a very disturbing week. He had two more extremely strong games, putting up 29-17 and 25-15, but Orlando lost both of those games. They did manage one win this week before being eliminated, but Howard only registered 8 points and 8 rebounds in the win. If a player is more valuable to his team while sitting on the bench, he's not really that valuable, is he? Not only did that performance drop him from the rankings altogether, it was bad enough that he didn't even win the first round honorable mention award, which I give to the best player whose team lost. I'll reveal the winner of that award later. First, let's get to this week's rankings. Last week's ranking is in parentheses.

1. Dwyane Wade - MIA - 22.2 pts, 8.4 reb, 5.2 ast, 2.0 blk, 1.4 stl (5)

There is no clear-cut MVP leader at this point of the playoffs, but Wade has to be considered a frontrunner after the series he had. In Miami's last two wins, Wade, a guard, posted point-rebound double-doubles while shooting over 90% from the free throw line. He also has the most experience of all of my current leaders, having won a Finals MVP award 5 years ago and owning the only championship ring of any of these five.

2. Kevin Durant - OKC - 32.4 pts, 5.6 reb, 3.6 ast (2)

Durant does not do much more than score, but who can deny that 41-point games to open and close the Denver series set the tone for an exciting, young Thunder team? In the clincher, he scored 16 points in the final 7 minutes and blocked a 3-point attempt in the final seconds that would have tied the game.

3. LeBron James - MIA - 24.2 pts, 10.6 reb, 6.2 ast (3)

Through the first 4 games of the playoffs, LeBron appeared to be the best player in the game. He was averaging nearly 29 points and 11 rebounds and had given the Heat a 3-1 lead in the series while Wade had struggled for a couple games, but in the deciding game Wade was the obvious star, while James managed only 16 points. He may be the King, but he's not the best closer on his own team.

4. Derrick Rose - CHI - 27.6 pts, 4.6 reb, 6.2 ast, 1.2 blk, 2.6 stl (4)

In the first two games of the playoffs, Rose showed why he is the leading candidate to win the regular season MVP award, putting up 39 points and 36 points in consecutive games, but he failed to match that in the final 3 games, scoring a total of 63 at the end of the series. His shooting percentages for the series were 37.1% from the field and 21.6% from three, both well below his regular season standards.

5. Dirk Nowitzki - DAL - 27.3 pts, 7.8 reb, 3.0 ast (NR)

Nowitzki finished with 33 points and 11 rebounds in Portland last night, winning the series for the Mavericks in a very tough arena for visitors. It was just the second time Dallas had won a playoff series since the lost to Miami in the 2006 Finals, and they won because Dirk took over the game and the series last night.

Honorable Mention

Chris Paul - NOH - 22.0 pts, 6.7 reb, 11.5 ast, 1.8 stl

Without David West, the Hornets' second-best player and leading scorer, Chris Paul took on an extra load and carried New Orleans into the playoffs and stretched their series to Los Angeles to 6 games, which is more than most expected out of them beforehand. He shot over 54% from the field and 47% from three during the series, but the Lakers finally shut down his scoring in the deciding game 6.

NBA Player of the Day

Joe Johnson - ATL - 23 pts, 10 reb, 4 ast, 10-25 FG, 1-4 3P, 2-2 FT

Johnson's stat line from last night is very similar to Dwyane Wade's from the night before, a performance which won the Heat star a Player of the Day nod from me, and Johnson's contribution was just as important. He was able to lead Atlanta to the second round of the playoffs for the third straight year, despite being a heavy underdog heading into the series.

Predictions - 29 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Spurs at Grizzlies - Grizzlies by 1

MLB

Tigers at Indians - Tigers by 1.1

Blue Jays at Yankees - Yankees by 2.6

Giants at Nationals - Nats by 0.9

Mets at Phillies - Phillies by 0.6

Mariners at Red Sox - Sox by 3.8

Angels at Rays - Rays by 1.2

Marlins at Reds - Marlins by 0.2

Cardinals at Braves - Braves by 2.4

Brewers at Astros - Brewers by 0.1

Orioles at White Sox - Orioles by 1.5

Twins at Royals - Royals by 1.8

Pirates at Rockies - Rockies by 0.3

Cubs at Diamondbacks - D-Backs by 1.1

Rangers at Athletics - Rangers by 1.2

Padres at Dodgers - Padres by 0.6

Prediction Results - 28 Apr

NBA Playoffs: 1-2 (.333) 32-11 overall (.744)

MLB: 6-5 (.545) 124-108 overall (.534)

Upsets: 2-4 (.333) 215-143 overall (.601)

Predictions - 28 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Magic at Hawks - Magic by 3

Lakers at Hornets - Lakers by 2

Mavericks at Trail Blazers - Blazers by 1

MLB

Giants at Pirates - Pirates by 1.6

Mariners at Tigers - Mariners by 0.5

Rays at Twins - Rays by 1.3

Blue Jays at Rangers - Rangers by 2.7

Mets at Nationals - Mets by 1.8

Red Sox at Orioles - Red Sox by 3.8

Royals at Indians - Royals by 1.4

White Sox at Yankees - Yankees by 4.2

Cardinals at Astros - Cards by 5.5

Rays at Twins - Twins by 1.7

Cubs at Diamondbacks - D-Backs by 0.1

NBA Player of the Day

Dwyane Wade - MIA - 26 pts, 11 reb, 7 ast, 10-25 FG, 1-5 3P, 5-6 FT

Honorable mention goes to Kevin Durant, who scored 41 points, including nearly every point down the stretch, as the Thunder eliminated Denver last night, but D-Wade had more than twice as many rebounds and assists as Durant in Miami's elimination game victory over Philadelphia. Durant is a great player, but Wade is the better all-around performer.

Prediction Results - 27 Apr

NBA Playoffs: 3-0 (1.000) 31-9 overall (.775)

MLB: 9-5 (.643) 118-103 overall (.534)

Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 213-139 overall (.605)

MLB Rankings - 27 Apr

Of the five teams that lost only once this week, not one was ranked in last week's top 12, which means that none of them have done enough to take over the top spot yet. The majority of teams played .500 ball this week, meaning that the strength of their competition did most of the work in determining which teams moved up and which moved down.

Rank. Team (Week) (Overall) Off/Def (Prev)

1. NY Yankees (3-2) (12-8) 1/1 (8)

2. Texas (3-3) (14-9) 2/3 (3)

3. Cleveland (2-3) (14-8) 4/4 (1)

4. Boston (5-1) (10-12) 3/5 (13)

5. LA Angels (3-4) (14-10) 6/2 (2)

6. Toronto (2-3) (11-12) 7/6 (24)

7. Kansas City (1-5) (12-11) 5/11 (4)

8. Saint Louis (4-3) (12-11) 8/7 (5)

9. Detroit (4-1) (12-11) 12/8 (27)

10. Atlanta (4-3) (12-13) 9/10 (11)

11. Cincinnati (3-4) (12-12) 10/13 (6)

12. Florida (6-1) (15-7) 19/9 (22)

13. Colorado (4-2) (16-7) 16/12 (17)

14. Philadelphia (5-2) (15-8) 11/17 (16)

15. Tampa Bay (3-2) (11-11) 14/18 (14)

16. Milwaukee (3-3) (12-11) 15/16 (9)

17. Oakland (2-5) (11-13) 21/14 (23)

18. Chi Sox (3-4) (10-14) 13/21 (10)

19. Baltimore (2-3) (9-12) 22/19 (15)

20. NY Mets (5-1) (10-13) 24/20 (30)

21. Washington (2-5) (10-12) 18/24 (12)

22. Minnesota (3-1) (9-12) 27/15 (29)

23. LA Dodgers (4-3) (12-13) 17/26 (28)

24. San Francisco (1-4) (11-11) 25/22 (7)

25. Arizona (3-4) (10-12) 23/25 (18)

26. Pittsburgh (2-4) (10-13) 20/28 (20)

27. Seattle (3-3) (9-15) 26/23 (19)

28. San Diego (2-6) (9-15) 30/27 (21)

29. Houston (3-3) (9-14) 28/30 (26)

30. Chi Cubs (2-5) (10-13) 29/29 (25)

On Fire

The New York Mets jumped out of last place this week by winning five straight games, the best of which was an 8-4 win over the Diamondbacks and Armando Galarraga, dealing him his first loss of the season. The Mets had played tough against good teams before that, but they had lost 12 of 14, so this week's breakthrough helped out their ranking.

Detroit started this week with a 4-game winning streak before falling to Seattle last night, but their last two wins over the White Sox were especially impressive, with a combined score of 12-0 between the two. That performance lifted the Tigers from the bottom five into the top 10 in just one week, although movement in April is always more exaggerated.

Florida had an awesome week, sweeping the Pirates and beating the Dodgers twice, while taking their weekend series over Colorado 2-1, which is no small feat considering the Rockies have the league's best record. They have played 8 straight at home, which changes this week when they travel to Cincinnati and Saint Louis, but if they can keep up their hot streak, they could challenge for the top spot next week.

Ice Cold

San Francisco needed extra innings last night to win for the first time in a week against perennial basement-dweller Pittsburgh, and didn't come closer than 3 runs in their four losses. The losses did come to very good Atlanta and Colorado teams, but you'd expect more out of last year's World Series champions.

Cleveland lost the #1 ranking this week by losing three straight games over the weekend, including two embarrassing losses to the Minnesota Twins. They came back with a victory over Kansas City last night, and they've got a very tough series coming up against Detroit this weekend.

San Diego has an excuse for their performance this week, after playing 8 games in 7 days, 3 of which went into extra innings. They also had to play the last 6 games against Philadelphia and Atlanta, two of the favorites in the NL East, and they did manage to steal one from the Braves.

Predictions - 27 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

76ers at Heat - Heat by 10

Grizzlies at Spurs - Spurs by 5

Nuggets at Thunder - Thunder by 2

MLB

Dodgers at Marlins - Dodgers by 1.4

Reds at Brewers - Brewers by 0.5

Rockies at Cubs - Rockies by 1.9

Braves at Padres - Braves by 2.6

Phillies at Diamondbacks - Phillies by 1.2

Athletics at Angels - Angels by 3.9

Red Sox at Orioles - Red Sox by 3.1

Royals at Indians - Indians by 1.9

Mariners at Tigers - Tigers by 1.7

White Sox at Yankees - Yankees by 4.0

Mets at Nationals - Mets by 0.8

Giants at Pirates - Giants by 0.0

Blue Jays at Rangers - Rangers by 2.1

Cardinals at Astros - Cards by 5.2

Rays at Twins - Rays by 0.9

NBA Player of the Day

Luol Deng - CHI - 24 pts, 6 reb, 7 ast, 3 stl, 7-14 FG, 3-5 3P, 7-8 FT

Deng may not have scored as much as Rose last night, but he did hand out more assists than his point guard and hit a couple of very important 3-pointers for the Bulls as they finally played like a #1 seed in eliminating the Indiana Pacers in game 5 of their first round series. It was by far his best game of the postseason so far, and a good sign for the advancing Bulls.

Prediction Results - 26 Apr

NBA Playoffs: 3-0 (1.000) 28-9 overall (.757)

MLB: 9-5 (.643) 109-98 overall (.527)

Upsets: 3-0 (1.000) 211-139 (.603)

Predictions - 26 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Hawks at Magic - Magic by 8

Pacers at Bulls - Bulls by 10

Hornets at Lakers - Lakers by 7

MLB

Red Sox at Orioles - Orioles by 0.2

Royals at Indians - Indians by 1.6

Mariners at Tigers - Mariners by 1.4

White Sox at Yankees - Yankees by 1.3

Mets at Nationals - Mets by 1.6

Giants at Pirates - Giants by 0.7

Dodgers at Marlins - Marlins by 0.1

Blue Jays at Rangers - Rangers by 4.1

Rockies at Cubs - Rockies by 6.5

Cardinals at Astros - Cards by 2.2

Rays at Twins - Rays by 0.8

Reds at Brewers - Reds by 2.5

Phillies at Diamondbacks - Phillies by 3.2

Athletics at Angels - Angels by 1.6

Braves at Padres - Braves by 0.6

NBA Player of the Day

Ty Lawson - DEN - 27 pts, 3 reb, 3 ast, 8-16 FG, 2-4 3P, 9-9 FT

Lawson set a new career playoff high with 27 points last night as the Denver Nuggets staved off elimination at home by beating the Thunder 104-101. Lawson hit two free throws in the final seconds that gave Denver a 5-point lead and provided the cushion they needed when Kevin Durant hit a 3-pointer just seconds later.

Prediction Results - 25 Apr

NBA Playoffs: 3-0 (1.000) 25-9 overall (.735)

MLB: 4-5 (.444) 100-93 overall (.518)

Upsets: 3-0 (1.000) 208-139 overall (.599)

NBA Playoff Odds - 25 Apr

With the first round of the playoffs drawing to a close, each team's odds of advancing in the playoffs and winning the championship has changed, some more dramatically than others. I have recalculated the odds of each team winning each possible game and matchup remaining, and the results are listed below. Percentage change from my playoff preview are in parentheses.

Odds of Winning First Round

1. Boston - 100.0% (+19.5)

2. Chicago - 99.1% (+1.6)

3. Miami - 98.9% (+7.7)

4. Oklahoma City - 93.4% (+49.0)

5. LA Lakers - 77.7% (-9.1)

6. Dallas - 67.0% (-1.7)

7. Atlanta - 65.0% (+57.4)

8. Memphis - 56.7% (+27.7)

To find the other 8 teams' odds, just subtract their opponent's odds from 100%. Boston has already completed their first round series, meaning that New York has no chance of advancing (since they've been eliminated). Oklahoma City and Memphis are the surprises of the playoffs so far, and Chicago and Dallas are the two that are just about where they were expected to be.

Odds of Advancing to the Conference Finals

1. Chicago - 84.8% (+15.1)

2. Miami - 72.7% (+2.0)

3. Oklahoma City - 53.3% (+31.7)

4. LA Lakers - 50.6% (-7.8)

5. Dallas - 32.8% (+3.3)

6. Boston - 27.1% (+2.3)

7. San Antonio - 24.1% (-14.1)

8. Memphis - 18.6% (+10.0)

9. Orlando - 11.2% (-18.5)

10. Portland - 10.8% (+1.9)

11. New Orleans - 5.8% (N/A)

Chicago's leap to the top has less to do with it's own success and more to do with Atlanta's 3-1 series lead on Orlando, which was totally unexpected. Oklahoma City has gone from possible first round upset victim to probable Conference Final participant in just over a week, and New Orleans' strong performance against Los Angeles so far has given it a little glimmer of hope, while Denver is most likely not going to make it two rounds.

Odds of Making the NBA Finals

1. Chicago - 43.9% (+2.6)

2. Miami - 42.2% (+3.6)

3. LA Lakers - 29.6% (-4.4)

4. Oklahoma City - 26.3% (+17.1)

5. Dallas - 17.1% (+2.8)

6. San Antonio - 13.7% (-6.8)

7. Boston - 10.2% (+1.8)

8. Memphis - 6.5% (N/A)

There are 3 Eastern Conference teams that could realistically make the Finals, and 5 Western Conference squads still in contention. Boston is the definite underdog of the 3 in the East, while the West is much more wide open. Denver and Orlando both dropped from this list this week, with Memphis adding its name to the list, which would be a major accomplishment for a team that had never won a playoff game just over a week ago.

Odds of Winning the Championship

1. Miami - 29.5% (+4.5)

2. Chicago - 28.1% (+1.3)

3. LA Lakers - 12.2% (-3.1)

4. Oklahoma City - 9.4% (N/A)

5. Dallas - 6.0% (+0.9)

6. San Antonio - 5.7% (-2.8)

7. Boston - 4.7% (N/A)

Boston and Oklahoma City have thrown their hats in as potential champions this year, while Denver and Orlando have caved in under the pressure of the playoffs. Oklahoma City has been the most impressive team in the West so far, with Miami taking that same honor in the East. The Eastern Conference's odds of winning the title have increased from 60.2% to 63.7%.

NBA Player of the Day

Chris Paul - NOH - 27 pts, 13 reb, 15 ast, 2 stl, 7-14 FG, 2-4 3P, 11-11 FT

Paul's historic triple-double over the Lakers has caused the Lakers to look vulnerable and the Hornets to look underrated in their first round series. Paul was only the second player in history to record at least 25 points, 10 rebounds, and 15 assists in a playoff game, and the other one was Oscar Robertson, who did it twice in the 1960's. And he did all that without David West, the team's leading scorer, who is out for the playoffs with an ACL injury.

Predictions - 25 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Spurs at Grizzlies - Grizz by 1

Trail Blazers at Mavericks - Mavs by 5

Thunder at Nuggets - Nuggets by 3

MLB

White Sox at Yankees - Yankees by 2.7

Nationals at Pirates - Nats by 4.2

Dodgers at Marlins - Marlins by 1.7

Blue Jays at Rangers - Jays by 2.0

Rockies at Cubs - Rockies by 2.3

Reds at Brewers - Brewers by 0.6

Phillies at Diamondbacks - Phillies by 1.2

Athletics at Angels - Angels by 2.1

Braves at Padres - Braves by 1.9

Prediction Results - 24 Apr

NBA Playoffs: 1-3 (.250) 22-9 overall (.710)

MLB: 9-6 (.600) 96-88 overall (.522)

Upsets: 2-1 (.667) 205-139 overall (.596)

Predictions - 24 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Heat at 76ers - Heat by 4

Celtics at Knicks - Celtics by 1

Magic at Hawks - Magic by 3

Lakers at Hornets - Lakers by 2

MLB

White Sox at Tigers - Tigers by 4.5

Rays at Blue Jays - Rays by 0.3

Diamondbacks at Mets - D-Backs by 3.6

Rockies at Marlins - Marlins by 2.9

Yankees at Orioles - Yankees by 3.0

Nationals at Pirates - Nats by 0.2

Indians at Twins - Indians by 6.2

Astros at Brewers - Brewers by 2.2

Dodgers at Cubs - Cubs by 2.0

Royals at Rangers - Rangers by 1.3

Red Sox at Angels - Angels by 5.2

Phillies at Padres - Phillies by 0.9

Braves at Giants - Braves by 0.3

Athletics at Mariners - Mariners by 0.8

Reds at Cardinals - Reds by 0.4

NBA Player of the Day

Brandon Roy - POR - 24 pts, 4 reb, 5 ast, 9-13 FG, 2-5 3P, 4-5 FT

He's come a long way in just two games. Nearly forgotten this season after undergoing multiple knee surgeries, Roy controlled the entire 4th quarter, rallying Portland from a 23-point deficit and scoring 18 points of his own in the final period. To add to the magical night, Roy was also the one to hit the game-winning jumper with less than a minute left in the game.

Prediction Results - 23 Apr

NBA Playoffs: 2-2 (.500) 21-6 overall (.778)

MLB: 7-8 (.467) 87-82 overall (.515)

Upsets: 4-2 (.667) 203-138 overall (.595)