NBA Playoff Odds - 30 Apr

The first round has come to an end, and the second round starts tomorrow, so today is the perfect time to update the odds of each team advancing in the playoffs. Three teams that I originally predicted to be here at this point have gone home, but Oklahoma City and Memphis were my #1 and #3 underdogs, so neither was a huge surprise. Atlanta, however, blew me out of the water by manhandling the Magic, but I don't expect that to continue against Chicago. Here are the updated odds, with change from Monday in parentheses.

Odds of Making Conference Finals

1. Chicago - 96.1% (+11.3)

2. Miami - 71.7% (-1.0)

3. Oklahoma City - 62.4% (+9.1)

4. LA Lakers - 60.6% (+10.0)

5. Dallas - 39.4% (+6.6)

6. Memphis - 37.6% (+19.0)

7. Boston - 28.3% (+1.2)

8. Atlanta - 3.9% (N/A)

Memphis made a strong move up this week because they made it out of the first round, which was only a 56% chance a week ago, so the odds of San Antonio making the Conference Finals were absorbed into the other Western Conference contenders, all of which strengthened their chances with the Spurs' defeat. Chicago faces the weakest team possible for the second straight round, and if that trend continues they will face Boston and Memphis in the remaining rounds.

Odds of making the NBA Finals

1. Chicago - 53.1% (+9.2)

2. LA Lakers - 40.3% (+10.7)

3. Miami - 37.2% (-5.0)

4. Oklahoma City - 24.8% (-1.5)

5. Dallas - 23.3% (+6.2)

6. Memphis - 11.6% (+5.1)

7. Boston - 9.4% (-0.8)

8. Atlanta - 0.2% (N/A)

Chicago's odds are so high because they most likely will be in the Conference Finals without a fight, while Miami has to go through a very tough Boston team that has been to two Finals in three years. The Lakers are becoming a stronger favorite in the West, thanks to the Spurs losing and giving LA home court for the next two rounds.

Odds of Winning the Championship

1. Chicago - 34.0% (+5.9)

2. Miami - 24.9% (-4.6)

3. LA Lakers - 17.5% (+5.3)

4. Dallas - 8.4% (+2.4)

5. Oklahoma City - 8.2% (-1.2)

6. Boston - 4.2% (-0.5)

7. Memphis - 2.9% (N/A)

8. Atlanta - 0.0% (N/A)

The odds are over 75% that Chicago, Miami, or the Lakers will win the championship, which should not surprise many people. Dallas and Oklahoma City could have a chance, while Boston and Memphis are pretty unlikely. Atlanta will not win the championship, barring injuries to LeBron, Kobe, Rose, Dirk, Durant, Rondo, and Z-Bo.

NBA Player of the Day

Zach Randolph - MEM - 31 pts, 11 reb, 2 ast, 12-22 FG, 7-8 FT

Randolph took over the 4th quarter for Memphis last night, scoring 17 points in the final period, including the clinching free throws in the closing seconds. It was the first ever series win for the Grizzlies, and only the 4th time in history that an 8th seed upset the top seed in the conference.

Predictions - 30 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

MLB

Angels at Rays - Rays by 0.3

Cardinals at Braves - Braves by 0.1

Mets at Phillies - Phillies by 1.2

Blue Jays at Yankees - Jays by 1.3

Rangers at Athletics - A's by 1.0

Giants at Nationals - Nats by 0.6

Tigers at Indians - Indians by 1.7

Brewers at Astros - Brewers by 2.0

Mariners at Red Sox - Sox by 1.7

Orioles at White Sox - Sox by 1.0

Twins at Royals - Royals by 0.9

Marlins at Reds - Marlins by 1.3

Cubs at Diamondbacks - D-Backs by 3.4

Pirates at Rockies - Rockies by 0.9

Padres at Dodgers - Dodgers by 0.8

Prediction Results - 29 Apr

NBA Playoffs: 1-0 (1.000) 33-11 overall (.750)

MLB: 6-9 (.400) 130-117 overall (.526)

Upsets: 2-2 (.500) 217-145 overall (.599)