NBA Playoff Odds

With the playoffs starting tomorrow, I decided to give an update on each team's odds of advancing in the playoffs and winning the title. After leading the league for nearly the entire season, the Spurs dropped to the #2 overall seed on the final day of the season, allowing Chicago the right to play on their home court to start every series and in any game 7 that may occur, a huge advantage to give an already good team.

Odds of a First Round Sweep

1. Chicago - 38.5%

2. Orlando - 26.7%

3. Miami - 24.9%

4. LA Lakers - 20.3%

5. Boston - 15.7%

6. San Antonio - 11.1%

7. Dallas - 10.2%

8. Denver - 7.9%

Odds of Winning First Round Series

1. Chicago - 97.5%

2. Orlando - 92.4%

3. Miami - 91.2%

4. LA Lakers - 86.8%

5. Boston - 80.5%

6. San Antonio - 71.0%

7. Dallas - 68.7%

8. Denver - 55.6%

To determine the other teams' odds of winning, just subtract their opponents' odds of winning from 100%. The only team with odds over 50% of pulling a first round upset is Denver, although Portland and Memphis are also very dangerous and could beat one of the Texas teams. The odds of a first-round upset occurring in the Eastern Conference are slim, at about 38.4%

Odds of Advancing to the Conference Finals

1. Miami - 70.7%

2. Chicago - 69.7%

3. LA Lakers - 58.4%

4. San Antonio - 38.2%

5. Denver - 31.6%

6. Orlando - 29.7%

7. Dallas - 29.5%

8. Boston - 24.8%

9. Oklahoma City - 21.6%

10. Portland - 8.9%

11. Memphis - 8.6%

The odds of the other teams advancing through 2 rounds and making the Conference Finals are below 4%, and therefore pretty unlikely. There is also a large dropoff between #9 and #10 on this list, but Portland and Memphis could make it if they can survive Texas in the first round. It should also be noted that Memphis has yet to win a playoff game in their history, so making it this far would already be a huge accomplishment.

Odds of making the NBA Finals

1. Chicago - 41.3%

2. Miami - 38.6%

3. LA Lakers - 34.0%

4. San Antonio - 20.5%

5. Denver - 16.2%

6. Dallas - 14.3%

7. Orlando - 11.2%

8. Oklahoma City - 9.2%

9. Boston - 8.4%

If Denver were to make the NBA Finals, and there is nearly a one in six chance that they will, it would be the first time in franchise history. It would also be the first time that Oklahoma City made it there, although they did make it to the Finals in Seattle back in the 90's.

Odds of Winning the Championship

1. Chicago - 26.8%

2. Miami - 25.0%

3. LA Lakers - 15.3%

4. San Antonio - 8.5%

5. Denver - 6.7%

6. Dallas - 5.1%

7. Orlando - 4.9%

Even though the Eastern Conference is not nearly as deep as the West, the top of the East is so strong that the odds of the NBA Champion coming from the Eastern Conference this season are 60.2%. Miami and Chicago are nearly even overall, but the advantage goes to Chicago because of the home court advantage it earned by playing so well over the last month of the season.

Finals Matchup Odds

Lakers vs. Celtics (again) - 2.9%

Carmelo Trade (Knicks vs. Nuggets) - 0.03%

Scoring Champs (Heat vs. Lakers or Thunder) - 16.7%

Going Green (Celtics vs. Mavericks) - 1.2%

Phil Jackson's teams (Lakers vs. Bulls) - 14.0%

Mammals (Bulls vs. Grizzlies) - 1.1%

MVP vs. MVP (not including Rose) - 32.3%

MVP vs. MVP (including Rose) - 60.7%

#1's - 8.4%

#8's - 0.000004%

Two Teams with no Championships - 3.8%

The last time two teams that had never won the championship met in the Finals was 2006, when Dallas and Miami played for the championship. The Lakers and Celtics have met 12 times in the Finals, by far the most commonly occurring matchup in history.

My Picks

Upset picks are in italics.

First Round

Bulls over Pacers in 4

Heat over 76ers in 5

Celtics over Knicks in 5

Magic over Hawks in 5

Spurs over Grizzlies in 5

Lakers over Hornets in 5

Mavericks over Trail Blazers in 5

Nuggets over Thunder in 6

Second Round

Bulls over Magic in 5

Heat over Celtics in 5

Nuggets over Spurs in 6

Lakers over Mavericks in 7

Conference Finals

Bulls over Heat in 7

Lakers over Nuggets in 7

NBA Finals

Bulls over Lakers in 6

Predictions - 15 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

MLB

Orioles at Indians - Indians by 0.5

Rangers at Yankees - Rangers by 2.7

Brewers at Nationals - Brewers by 0.8

Marlins at Phillies - Phillies by 4.1

Blue Jays at Red Sox - Blue Jays by 4.9

Twins at Rays - Rays by 1.1

Pirates at Reds - Reds by 4.5

Mets at Braves - Braves by 1.9

Padres at Astros - Astros by 0.3

Angels at White Sox - Angels by 1.1

Mariners at Royals - Royals by 2.4

Cubs at Rockies - Rockies by 3.4

Giants at Diamondbacks - Giants by 2.6

Tigers at Athletics - Athletics by 0.2

Cardinals at Dodgers - Cardinals by 3.1

Prediction Results - 14 Apr

MLB: 5-6 (.455) 24-23 overall (.511)

Upsets: 1-2 (.333) 182-125 overall (.593)