It's once again time for my favorite post of the year. I have analyzed the results of all 5881 games that took place this season, adjusting for home court, strength of schedule, etc., then plugged those results into the bracket that was released on Sunday to determine which teams have the best odds of advancing through each round and winning the tournament. Hopefully this info is helpful to you in filling out your bracket.
Best Teams Left Out
29. Wake Forest
35. Oklahoma
44. Mississippi State
45. Oklahoma State
46. Texas A&M
47. SMU
49. Florida
Oklahoma State was ineligible for this year's tournament, but still had a decent season. The others all made appearances in my bracket updates throughout the season, including 2 (Texas A&M and SMU), that I had in my final bracket. Wake Forest lost their chance at the tournament when they lost to Boston College in the first round of the ACC Tournament, and Oklahoma lost 15 games this year, which no team has ever overcome to make the tournament. The top eligible team on this list last season, Memphis, ended up winning the NIT, so the Demon Deacons could be in for a good run in that competition.
Worst At-Large Teams Selected
50. Marquette
54. Iowa State
56. Creighton
60. Notre Dame
61. Wyoming
64. Miami
81. Rutgers
This list includes the two teams that made the field that I didn't correctly predict (Rutgers and Notre Dame), along with 5 others who were somewhat underwhelming for a good chunk of the season. Of the 5 teams that made this list last season, 4 did not win a single game in the tournament.
Teams that are Better than their Seed
1. Virginia Tech
2. San Francisco
3. Houston
4. Memphis
5. Loyola-Chicago
6. Michigan
7. Vermont
8. Iowa
9. LSU
10. Indiana
11. South Dakota State
Many of these teams were seeded lower than their talent would suggest due to the overall weakness of their schedules, but they are good bets to go farther than expected in the tournament. The 8 teams on this list last season won a total of 12 games, 9 more than was expected based on their seeds, including USC, a 6-seed who reached the Elite 8, and UCLA, an 11 who reached the Final Four. This is a good place to start looking for upsets.
Teams that are Worse than their Seed
1. Providence
2. Wisconsin
3. Colorado State
4. Creighton
5. Michigan State
6. USC
7. TCU
8. Marquette
9. Miami
10. Rutgers
These teams are good bets to exit the tournament early. The 10 teams on this list last season won a total of only 5 games, 8 fewer than expected, and none of them won more than one game or reached the Sweet 16. Picking one of these teams to make a deep run would probably be pretty dangerous.
Projected First Round Upsets
9.8
This number has dropped from last season, when it sat at 10.1, and there were exactly 10 upsets in the first round. It is probably best to pick somewhere between 8 and 11 this season.
Most Likely First Round Upsets
(9) Memphis over (8) Boise State - 53.1%
(10) San Francisco over (7) Murray State - 52.7%
(11) Michigan over (6) Colorado State - 51.1%
(10) Loyola Chicago over (7) Ohio State - 50.6%
(10) Davidson over (7) Michigan State - 49.4%
(9) TCU over (8) Seton Hall - 47.8%
(11) Virginia Tech over (6) Texas - 47.7%
(13) South Dakota State over (4) Providence - 47.6%
(10) Miami over (7) USC - 45.5%
(9) Marquette over (8) North Carolina - 44.0%
(9) Creighton over (8) San Diego State - 42.9%
(12) Wyoming/Indiana over (5) Saint Mary's - 41.5%
(13) Vermont over (4) Arkansas - 40.8%
There are 4 lower seeds that I am favoring to win in the first round, and 9 others with a very good chance at pulling one off. I put 9 potential upsets on this list last season, and 3 happened, including the top 2 on the list, but most of last year's upsets were a little more unlikely. Still, this is not a bad place to start when picking upsets.
Most Likely #15 or #16 to Win a Game
(15) Delaware over (2) Villanova - 14.0%
(15) Saint Peter's over (2) Kentucky - 13.8%
(15) Jacksonville State over (2) Auburn - 11.9%
(15) CSU Fullerton over (2) Duke - 10.8%
(16) Norfolk State over (1) Baylor - 10.6%
These don't happen often for a reason, but there is about a 50-50 shot that we'll see one this year, so if you feel like taking a risk, these 5 are the ones that are much more likely to happen. Last year, #15 Oral Roberts upset #2 Ohio State, and they were one of the 3 on my list that had a possibility of pulling it off.
Most Likely Cinderellas
(11) Virginia Tech - 21.9%
(10) Loyola-Chicago - 20.6%
(10) San Francisco - 19.9%
(11) Michigan - 18.9%
(13) Vermont - 18.81%
(10) Davidson - 18.77%
(11) Iowa State - 18.7%
(13) South Dakota State - 17.7%
(12) Wyoming/Indiana - 14.8%
(10) Miami - 13.7%
(11) Rutgers/Notre Dame - 13.3%
(12) UAB - 12.8%
(13) Chattanooga - 11.7%
(12) New Mexico State - 11.0%
(12) Richmond - 10.8%
There were 4 double-digit seeds that made it to at least the Sweet 16 last year, and three of them were among the 10 most likely on my list. There are several good options on this list, and it's very likely that at least a couple teams from this list will still be playing next week.
Projected Number of Cinderellas
2.9
Last year's projection was 3.1, so the total of 4 was right in the expected range. Between 2 and 4 seems very likely again this year.
#1 Seeds in the Final Four
1.1
Last year's projection was 1.4, and 2 ended up reaching the Final Four. This year it seems even less likely that we will see multiple #1 seeds in the Final Four, so don't give in to the temptation to just keep all of the #1 seeds alive, because they are all vulnerable to some extent, this year more than usual.
Odds of a #1 Seed Winning the Championship
38.1%
This is the lowest number I can recall in this section. Last year's odds were 52.4%, and for the 4th season in a row, a #1 seed took home the title. If a lower seed is ever going to pull it off, this might be the year.
Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams
(1) Gonzaga - 74.0%
(1) Arizona - 71.0%
(1) Kansas - 66.5%
(2) Auburn - 63.9%
(1) Baylor - 61.3%
(3) Tennessee - 59.8%
(2) Kentucky - 59.1%
(2) Duke - 59.0%
(2) Villanova - 55.7%
(4) UCLA - 55.4%
(3) Texas Tech - 52.2%
(5) Iowa - 50.8%
(3) Purdue - 48.8%
(5) Houston - 48.0%
(6) LSU - 41.5%
(5) UConn - 37.5%
(4) Arkansas - 32.7%
(3) Wisconsin - 30.4%
9 of last season's Sweet 16 had over a 30% chance of reaching that point before the tournament started, so there were several surprise teams, but most of the teams at the top of the list were still around after the opening weekend.
Most Likely Final Four Teams
(1) Gonzaga - 37.9%
(1) Arizona - 27.5%
(1) Kansas - 25.9%
(2) Auburn - 25.0%
(2) Kentucky - 21.6%
(1) Baylor - 20.6%
(3) Tennessee - 18.6%
(4) UCLA - 16.9%
(2) Duke - 16.6%
(2) Villanova - 15.5%
(5) Houston - 15.3%
(5) Iowa - 14.8%
(3) Texas Tech - 13.6%
(3) Purdue - 12.8%
Last year there were only 9 teams with at least a 10% chance of making the Final Four, and this year there are 14, so this field is definitely more wide-open than last year. 3 of the top 5 teams on last season's list made it to the final weekend, so these are definitely the best teams to pick for a deep run.
Most Likely Champions
(1) Gonzaga - 15.5%
(1) Arizona - 9.4%
(1) Kansas - 7.5%
(2) Auburn - 7.1%
(2) Kentucky - 6.4%
(1) Baylor - 5.7%
(3) Tennessee - 5.2%
(5) Houston - 4.6%
(4) UCLA - 4.32%
(2) Duke - 4.30%
(2) Villanova - 4.0%
(5) Iowa - 3.6%
(3) Texas Tech - 3.4%
(3) Purdue - 2.9%
Last year, only 9 teams made this list with at least a 2% chance of winning it all, and the title went to Baylor, who was #4 on the list, the first time since 2016 that the winner wasn't in the top 2 on my list. There are 14 teams on this list this season, and any of them could realistically win it all, and Gonzaga is even less of a favorite than last year, when they had a 26% chance of winning the championship.
Most Common Nicknames
Wildcats - 4
Tigers - 4
Bulldogs - 3
Raiders/Red Raiders - 3
Hurricanes/Cylcones - 2
Bears/Bruins - 2
Spartans - 2
Catamounts/Cougars - 2
Teams by State
Texas - 7
California - 6
Virginia - 4
Alabama - 4
Tennessee - 3
New Jersey - 3
Indiana - 3
Ohio - 3
North Carolina - 2
Illinois - 2
Connecticut - 2
Kentucky - 2
Michigan - 2
Iowa - 2
Rhode Island - 2
Wisconsin - 2
Arkansas - 1
Arizona - 1
Colorado - 1
Florida - 1
Georgia - 1
Idaho - 1
Delaware - 1
Kansas - 1
Louisiana - 1
Montana - 1
Nebraska - 1
New Mexico - 1
New York - 1
Pennsylvania - 1
South Dakota - 1
Vermont - 1
Washington - 1
Wyoming - 1
My Picks
First Round Winners
(1) Gonzaga
(9) Memphis
(5) UConn
(13) Vermont
(6) Alabama
(3) Texas Tech
(10) Davidson
(2) Duke
(1) Baylor
(9) Marquette
(12) Wyoming/Indiana
(4) UCLA
(11) Virginia Tech
(3) Purdue
(10) San Francisco
(2) Kentucky
(1) Arizona
(9) TCU
(5) Houston
(4) Illinois
(11) Michigan
(3) Tennessee
(10) Loyola-Chicago
(2) Villanova
(1) Kansas
(9) Creighton
(5) Iowa
(13) South Dakota State
(6) LSU
(3) Wisconsin
(10) Miami
(2) Auburn
That is a total of 13 first round upsets, probably a little high, but it's been a crazy season and I'm hoping for a crazy tournament to wrap it up.
Sweet 16
(1) Gonzaga
(13) Vermont
(6) Alabama
(2) Duke
(1) Baylor
(4) UCLA
(11) Virginia Tech
(2) Kentucky
(1) Arizona
(5) Houston
(3) Tennessee
(2) Villanova
(1) Kansas
(5) Iowa
(6) LSU
(2) Auburn
I've got all of the #1's and #2 advancing this far, along with a couple of Cinderella teams. There are 5 SEC teams at this point, with 2 each from the Pac 12, Big 12, and ACC.
Elite Eight
(1) Gonzaga
(2) Duke
(4) UCLA
(2) Kentucky
(5) Houston
(3) Tennessee
(5) Iowa
(2) Auburn
This is where the big teams start to go down, with 3 #1 seeds falling in this round alone. 3 SEC teams remain alive, the only conference with multiple teams left.
Final Four
(1) Gonzaga
(4) UCLA
(5) Houston
(5) Iowa
Now the #2 seeds fall, leaving behind Gonzaga and 3 slight surprise teams playing on to the final weekend.
Championship
(1) Gonzaga
(5) Iowa
#1 overall seed Gonzaga reaches the title game yet again, where they face the Big 10 champs from Iowa.
Champion
(1) Gonzaga
I am picking the Bulldogs to win just like I did last year, even though they fell just short last time. Their odds might not be as good, but with how wide-open the field is, much of their toughest competition may fall earlier than expected, paving the way for their first-ever title.
