NBA Playoff Odds - 7 May

There are no NBA Playoff games today, as all 8 teams are travelling to the homes of the lower seeds today. Since all 4 series are tied at 1-1, they have all essentially become 5-game series with the lower seeds now owning home court advantage, so the odds of the lower seeds advancing have increased since the weekend. Here are my updated odds for each team advancing through each remaining round and winning it all.

Odds of Winning Second Round

1. Warriors - 87.2% (-6.3)
2. Clippers - 78.3% (+5.3)
3. Hawks - 70.9% (-7.1)
4. Cavaliers - 53.0% (-5.5)
5. Bulls - 47.0% (+5.5)
6. Wizards - 29.1% (+7.1)
7. Rockets - 21.7% (-5.3)
8. Grizzlies - 12.8% (+6.3)

The upsets by the 5-seeds had a slightly larger impact than the 3-seeds' upsets, since they were less likely to happen, with Memphis nearly doubling its odds of escaping this round.

Odds of Making NBA Finals

1. Warriors - 65.0% (-7.3)
2. Cavaliers - 34.3% (-2.3)
3. Hawks - 33.3% (-2.5)
4. Clippers - 29.0% (+6.4)
5. Bulls - 27.4% (+3.7)
6. Wizards - 5.0% (+1.2)
7. Rockets - 3.3% (-0.3)
8. Grizzlies - 2.7% (+1.2)

The Clippers stole home court from Houston and watched Golden State drop a game, which gave a huge boost to LA in just 2 games.

Odds of Winning NBA Finals

1. Warriors - 56.0% (-6.4)
2. Clippers - 20.9% (+5.1)
3. Cavaliers - 8.5% (+0.1)
4. Hawks - 6.6% (+0.0)
5. Bulls - 5.4% (+0.9)
6. Rockets - 1.4% (-0.2)

Golden State's odds may have dropped after losing for the first time this postseason, but they are still the huge favorite to walk away with their first title in 40 years.

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 1-1 (.500) 33-16 overall (.674)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 2-1 overall (.667)

Predictions - 6 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

Chicago at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 3
LA Clippers at Houston - Clippers by 2

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 1-1 (.500) 32-15 overall (.681)

Predictions - 5 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

Washington at Atlanta - Hawks by 5
Memphis at Golden State - Warriors by 10

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 1-1 (.500) 31-14 overall (.689)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 2-0 overall (1.000)

Predictions - 4 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

Chicago at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 3
LA Clippers at Houston - Clippers by 1

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 1-1 (.500) 30-13 overall (.698)

NBA Playoff Odds - 3 May

The first round has ended, with only 2 lower seeds advancing out of the first round, both from the #5 position. Round 2 starts today, so I've updated my odds of each team continuing to advance through the playoffs, along with my picks for the winner and length of each remaining round, which have changed just slightly since the playoffs began.

Odds of Winning Second Round

1. Warriors - 93.5% (-0.4)
2. Hawks - 78.0% (+16.6)
3. Clippers - 73.0% (+39.1)
4. Cavaliers - 58.5% (-13.8)
5. Bulls - 41.5% (+14.7)
6. Rockets - 27.0% (+5.2)
7. Wizards - 22.0% (-13.2)
8. Grizzlies - 6.5% (+0.7)

The Clippers, Hawks, and Bulls all improved their odds of winning this round by a lot over the past 5 days, mostly due to finishing out their first round series. The Wizards' odds dropped off due to Atlanta beating Brooklyn, which had a 15.9% chance 5 days ago of taking the series and giving Washington home court in the next round.

Odds of Making NBA Finals

1. Warriors - 72.3% (+3.5)
2. Cavaliers - 36.6% (-15.0)
3. Hawks - 35.8% (+9.7)
4. Bulls - 23.7% (+8.8)
5. Clippers - 22.6% (+12.7)
6. Wizards - 3.8% (-3.2)
7. Rockets - 3.6% (+0.9)
8. Grizzlies - 1.5% (+0.3)

The Spurs' loss in the first round boosted both the Clippers, who weren't expected to be here, and the Warriors, who expected to face them in the conference finals. Cleveland was not happy to see both Atlanta and Chicago wake up from their doldrums to advance, making the Eastern Conference race a very tight one.

Odds of Winning NBA Finals

1. Warriors - 62.4% (+2.2)
2. Clippers - 15.8% (+8.7)
3. Cavaliers - 8.4% (-3.0)
4. Hawks - 6.6% (+3.0)
5. Bulls - 4.5% (+2.8)
6. Rockets - 1.6% (+0.3)

Neither 5-seed is going to win three straight series on the road, so they aren't even worth showing here. The Clippers earned the biggest boost after knocking out the defending champs, with only Cleveland slipping after seeing its biggest competition stay alive.

Playoff Picks

Second Round

Hawks over Wizards in 6
Cavaliers over Bulls in 7
Warriors over Grizzlies in 5
Clippers over Rockets in 6

The only two changes I made here were switching out Toronto and San Antonio for Washington and LA. The series length predictions are all the same as originally predicted.

Conference Finals

Cavaliers over Hawks in 7
Warriors over Clippers in 7

I changed Golden State's opponent here, but not the length of the series. I also switched my Eastern Conference pick to Cleveland winning in 7 rather than Atlanta.

NBA Finals

Warriors over Cavaliers in 6

Just switching opponents in the Finals, but still taking Golden State to get their first title in 40 years.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

Washington at Atlanta - Hawks by 6
Memphis at Golden State - Warriors by 9

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 1-0 (1.000) 29-12 overall (.707)

Predictions - 2 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

San Antonio at LA Clippers - Clippers by 1

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 1-0 (1.000) 28-12 overall (.700)

Predictions - 1 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

Atlanta at Brooklyn - Hawks by 4

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 1-1 (.500) 27-12 overall (.692)