Thursday, April 14, 2011

Predictions - 14 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.
Possible upsets are underlined.

MLB

Rockies at Mets - Rockies by 1.3
Rockies at Mets - Mets by 2.7
Twins at Rays - Rays by 2.8
Orioles at Yankees - Orioles by 0.8
Phillies at Nationals - Phillies by 1.4
Brewers at Pirates - Brewers by 0
Marlins at Braves - Braves by 0.9
Padres at Astros - Padres by 0.2
Mariners at Royals - Royals by 3.5
Tigers at Athletics - Athletics by 4.1
Cardinals at Dodgers - Dodgers by 0.5

NBA Player of the Day

Kobe Bryant - LAL - 36 pts, 9 reb, 6 ast, 13-24 FG, 1-2 3P, 9-10 FT
Not only did Kobe outscore all other players in the league last night, but he also hit a game-tying 3-pointer with 5 seconds left in regulation and blocked the potential game-tying shot at the buzzer to send the Lakers to overtime, where they ran away from the Sacramento Kings and wrapped up the #2 seed in the Western Conference.

Prediction Results - 13 Apr

NBA: 8-7 (.533) 733-315 overall (.699)
MLB: 7-7 (.500) 19-17 overall (.528)
Upsets: 4-2 (.667) 181-123 overall (.595)

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

MLB Rankings - 13 Apr

To go along with my first baseball predictions of the season yesterday, I'm debuting my Major League Baseball rankings today. I've split up the offensive and defensive ratings to create my formula, and averaged the two together to come up with the overall rankings below. Each team's name is followed by its overall record, offensive ranking, and defensive ranking.

1. Texas (9-2) (2) (4)
2. Cincinnati (8-3) (1) (9)
3. Colorado (7-2) (7) (1)
4. Toronto (5-6) (3) (6)
5. Chi Sox (7-4) (12) (2)
6. Arizona (5-5) (6) (7)
7. Philadelphia (7-3) (4) (13)
8. Atlanta (5-6) (14) (5)
9. Oakland (5-6) (9) (12)
10. Cleveland (8-3) (10) (10)
11. LA Angels (6-5) (18) (3)
12. Pittsburgh (5-5) (8) (20)
13. Washington (5-5) (5) (24)
14. Seattle (4-7) (17) (11)
15. Kansas City (6-4) (11) (18)
16. Milwaukee (5-5) (16) (15)
17. Baltimore (6-3) (19) (8)
18. Tampa Bay (3-8) (13) (28)
19. Minnesota (4-6) (22) (16)
20. NY Yankees (5-4) (15) (29)
21. San Francisco (5-6) (20) (26)
22. Saint Louis (4-7) (23) (23)
23. LA Dodgers (6-5) (21) (27)
24. NY Mets (4-6) (27) (14)
25. Detroit (4-7) (26) (21)
26. Chi Cubs (5-6) (25) (22)
27. San Diego (4-6) (28) (19)
28. Florida (5-5) (24) (30)
29. Houston (3-8) (30) (17)
30. Boston (2-9) (29) (25)

I'll have a bit more analysis of my rankings in next week's edition of the baseball rankings.

NBA Player of the Day

Pau Gasol - LAL - 17 pts, 17 reb, 5 ast, 7-12 FG, 3-4 FT
17 points may be the lowest output of any Player of the Day I've named all season, but adding 17 points to the mix and beating the top-seeded Spurs certainly make this a very strong performance from Gasol. They'll need more games like this in the playoffs, especially if Andrew Bynum ends up missing more time with his latest knee injury.

Predictions - 13 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.
Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Knicks at Celtics - Celtics by 7
Nets at Bulls - Bulls by 17
Wizards at Cavaliers - Cavs by 2
Hornets at Mavericks - Mavs by 6
Rockets at Timberwovles - Rockets by 6
Pacers at Magic - Magic by 9
Pistons at 76ers - 76ers by 8
Bucks at Thunder - Thunder by 9
Nuggets at Jazz - Nuggets by 5
Heat at Raptors - Heat by 10
Hawks at Bobcats - Hawks by 0
Trail Blazers at Warriors - Blazers by 2
Grizzlies at Clippers - Grizz by 3
Lakers at Kings - Lakers by 7
Spurs at Suns - Spurs by 4

MLB

Rangers at Tigers - Tigers by 1
Royals at Twins - Royals by 1
Athletics at White Sox - Athletics by 0
Blue Jays at Mariners - Blue Jays by 3
Reds at Padres - Reds by 3
Phillies at Nationals - Nats by 0
Brewers at Pirates - Pirates by 0
Indians at Angels - Indians by 2
Orioles at Yankees - Orioles by 0
Marlins at Braves - Braves by 5
Rockies at Mets - Rockies by 8
Rays at Red Sox - Rays by 2
Cubs at Astros - Cubs by 4
Cardinals at Diamondbacks - D-Backs by 9
Dodgers at Giants - Giants by 3

Prediction Results - 12 Apr

NBA: 3-0 (1.000) 725-308 overall (.702)
MLB: 5-7 (.417) 12-10 overall (.545)
Upsets: 4-1 (.800) 177-121 overall (.594)

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Predictions - 12 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.
Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Bulls at Knicks - Bulls by 4
Grizzlies at Trail Blazers - Blazers by 3
Spurs at Lakers - Lakers by 3

MLB

Rangers at Tigers - Rangers by 7
Orioles at Yankees - Yankees by 0
Phillies at Nationals - Phillies by 3
Brewers at Pirates - Pirates by 2
Rays at Red Sox - Red Sox by 1
Marlins at Braves - Marlins by 3
Rockies at Mets - Rockies by 8
Cubs at Astros - Astros by 5
Athletics at White Sox - White Sox by 3
Royals at Twins - Royals by 0
Cardinals at Diamondbacks - D-Backs by 2
Indians at Angels - Angels by 2
Reds at Padres - Padres by 2
Blue Jays at Mariners - Blue Jays by 2
Dodgers at Giants - Giants by 1

NBA Player of the Day

LeBron James - MIA - 34 pts, 10 reb, 7 ast, 3 stl, 10-21 FG, 2-4 3P, 12-14 FT
LeBron isn't quite ready to give up on earning his 3rd straight MVP just yet, and he used a big game against a depleted Atlanta Hawks team to show just how valuable he is. The win clinched the #2 seed in the East for Miami, which will allow them to have home court advantage for at least the first two rounds of the playoffs.

Prediction Results - 11 Apr

NBA: 6-5 (.545) 722-308 overall (.701)
Upsets: 0-2 (.000) 173-120 overall (.590)

Monday, April 11, 2011

NBA Rankings - 11 Apr

This week I've increased the strength of the momentum factor in my formula in hopes of being able to continue increasing the accuracy of my predictions, and as a result there is a bit more movement than usual in this week's rankings. Each team's name is followed by its weekly record, overall record, rating, and previous ranking.

1. Chicago (4-0) (60-20) -8.12 (3)
2. Miami (2-1) (56-24) -7.64 (1)
3. LA Lakers (0-4) (55-25) -7.11 (2)
4. Denver (2-2) (49-31) -6.99 (6)
5. San Antonio (3-0) (61-19) -6.91 (4)
6. Oklahoma City (4-0) (54-26) -5.80 (9)
7. Orlando (2-1) (50-30) -5.53 (7)
8. Boston (2-2) (55-25) -5.46 (5)
9. Dallas (2-1) (55-25) -5.18 (8)
10. Memphis (2-1) (46-34) -4.47 (10)
11. Houston (1-2) (42-38) -4.19 (11)
12. Portland (2-1) (47-33) -4.14 (12)
13. New Orleans (2-1) (46-34) -2.69 (13)
14. Philadelphia (1-2) (41-39) -2.34 (14)
15. New York (4-0) (42-38) -1.79 (15)
16. Phoenix (1-3) (38-42) -0.38 (17)
17. Milwaukee (2-2) (33-47) -0.10 (18)
18. Indiana (2-1) (37-44) 0.45 (19)
19. Atlanta (0-3) (44-36) 0.48 (16)
20. Golden State (2-1) (35-45) 0.51 (21)
21. Utah (1-2) (37-43) 1.12 (20)
22. LA Clippers (1-3) (31-50) 1.34 (22)
23. Detroit (3-1) (29-51) 2.48 (23)
24. Sacramento (2-2) (24-56) 3.13 (25)
25. Charlotte (0-4) (32-48) 3.73 (24)
26. Minnesota (0-3) (17-63) 4.76 (26)
27. Toronto (1-3) (22-58) 5.17 (27)
28. New Jersey (1-3) (24-56) 5.46 (28)
29. Washington (2-2) (22-58) 6.64 (29)
30. Cleveland (2-2) (17-63) 7.80 (30)

Feeling Hoppy

Last week there was talk that Oklahoma City could fall behind Denver into the 5th spot in the West, but they made sure to end that talk this week with four straight wins, including 2 over those Denver Nuggets. They capped off a perfect week with a huge road upset of the Lakers last night, which put them only one game behind the Lakers and Mavericks for the 2nd seed in the West. What a difference a week makes.

The Dallas Mavericks rebounded from a loss to Denver early in the week by beating down the Clippers and Suns over the weekend, which was enough to pull them into a tie with Los Angeles for the #2 spot in the West. They still have two tough games left, but even their recent 4-game losing streak didn't knock them out of contention.

The New York Knicks won four straight this week, including two close wins over the teams closest to them in the Eastern Conference standings and two blowouts of teams that have known they will miss the playoffs for months. Their seven straight wins negated the damage caused by the preceding 6-game losing streak, and they are now sitting in 6th place in the East.

Laying Eggs

If you were paying close attention to my rankings above, you may have noticed that the worst team in the playoffs is not the Indiana Pacers, but the Atlanta Hawks, who may still end up with the East's 5th seed. They got consistently worse this week, losing by 7 to San Antonio, then 12 to the Pacers, and finally 32 to the Wizards.

10 days ago, the Lakers were looking unstoppable, having won 17 of 18 games since the All-Star Break, but this week they failed to win a single game, and two of those games were against non-playoff competition. Just when it looked like the had the second seed all sewn up, now they're in a 3-way dogfight with just two games to go.

Boston didn't play a close game all week, but that wasn't necessarily a good thing. They did win two of those games, but both were against teams much lower in the rankings than the Celtics. The bad part was the two road losses to the other top Eastern teams, Chicago and Miami, who both beat Boston by at least 16 points, showing that there may be a new team representing the East in this year's Finals.

NBA Player of the Day

Derrick Rose - CHI - 39 pts, 3 reb, 5 ast, 13-17 FG, 3-5 3P, 10-10 FT
Even though they Bulls have already clinched the best record in the East, Rose has not let up, beating yet another of the top contenders in the East yesterday in Orlando by scoring 39 points and hitting four important free throw down the stretch in a probably second round playoff preview.

Predictions - 11 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.
Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Heat at Hawks - Heat by 5
Bobcats at Nets - Nets by 1
Magic at 76ers - Magic by 1
Celtics at Wizards - Celtics by 9
Cavaliers at Pistons - Pistons by 8
Jazz at Hornets - Hornets by 7
Raptors at Bucks - Bucks by 8
Mavericks at Rockets - Rockets by 2
Warriors at Nuggets - Nuggets by 10
Thunder at Kings - Thunder by 6
Timberwolves at Suns - Suns by 8

Prediction Results - 10 Apr

NBA: 4-5 (.444) 716-303 overall (.703)
Upsets: 2-2 (.500) 173-118 overall (.595)

Sunday, April 10, 2011

Predictions - 10 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.
Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Bulls at Magic - Magic by 1
Celtics at Heat - Heat by 4
Nets at Raptors - Raptors by 3
Hornets at Grizzlies - Grizz by 3
Pistons at Bobcats - Bobcats by 3
Knicks at Pacers - Pacers by 1
Suns at Mavericks - Mavs by 7
Kings at Warriors - Warriors by 6
Thunder at Lakers - Lakers by 5

NBA Player of the Day

Ty Lawson - DEN - 37 pts, 7 reb, 6 ast, 11-16 FG, 10-11 3P, 5-6 FT
Lawson had the best night of his career by far last night, breaking the career high of 28 points he had set 5 nights earlier and tying his career high with 7 rebounds in the same game. He also set a new NBA record for most consecutive 3-pointers made to start a game without a miss, with 10 in a row going in before he missed one at the 3rd quarter buzzer. His previous career high for 3-pointers was 3 in a game, and he outscored Minnesota 24-18 by himself in the 3rd quarter.

Prediction Results - 9 Apr

NBA: 4-1 (.800) 712-298 overall (.705)

Saturday, April 9, 2011

Coming Soon: Baseball Predictions

Baseball season has started, but you may have noticed that I haven't published any baseball predictions here on my blog yet. That is because predicting the outcome of baseball games is much trickier than basketball and football, the other sports I've been predicting for years. There are a couple of reasons for this.

The biggest difference between baseball and the other sports is the pitching rotation. In predicting football or basketball games, the lineup on the court or field does not vary much from game to game, excepting cases involving trades or injuries. In baseball, the pitcher, probably the most important player on the field, rotates from day to day. It would be somewhat like a football team using 5 different quarterback and switching them each week. Because of that, I can't just duplicate my regular formula and apply it to baseball. What I've done is separate out each team's defensive ratings by starting pitcher and score each separately. When predicting football or basketball, it usually takes about 4 games before there is enough data to make reasonable assumptions about future games, and the same stands true for baseball, but with this reworked formula, that means that each pitcher will have to start 4 games before the formula becomes regularly accurate. I'm currently testing the formula daily and watching for signs that enough matchups have taken place to make it accurate enough to publish. That could happen next week, or it may still be two weeks away, but it is forthcoming.

The other obstacle in predicting baseball is the lower scoring outputs. In football, each scoring play is worth between 2 and 8 points, but in basketball and baseball you can only score between 1 and 4 points on a single play. In basketball it is much more common to score almost 50% of the time the ball is in play, but that is not the case in baseball, where 10 points is considered extremely high scoring. This means that the difference between two teams is much less, and one extra score can have a much larger impact than it would in the other sports.

With that being said, I still believe that my formula will produce a good winning percentage once enough data has been gathered. Keep watching, and I promise that baseball predictions and rankings will be coming soon.

NBA Player of the Day

Zach Randolph - MEM - 27 pts, 15 reb, 4 ast, 4 stl, 10-18 FG, 7-10 FT
Randolph's game was larger than the man himself last night, and he capped it off with two free throw in the final 5 seconds to clinch the victory and the final available playoff spot in the entire league as the Grizzlies held off a late surge from Sacramento. The Grizzlies made the playoffs for the first time in 5 years, and hope to win a playoff game for the first time in franchise history later this month.

Predictions - 9 Apr

NBA

Hawks at Wizards - Hawks by 5
Clippers at Rockets - Rockets by 8
Cavaliers at Bucks - Bucks by 11
Jazz at Spurs - Spurs by 11
Timberwolves at Nuggets - Nuggets by 13

Prediction Results - 8 Apr

NBA: 10-2 (.833) 708-297 overall (.704)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 171-116 overall (.596)

Friday, April 8, 2011

NBA MVP Rankings - 8 Apr

With only one week left in the regular season, the top two records in the league have basically been clinched, one by a team with lots of stars but no superstar, and the other by a team led by a true young superstar. Barring a huge collapse from Chicago to end the season, it is looking like Derrick Rose will be the MVP in 2011, but there are still a few players positioning themselves for second place. Here are the second-to-last rankings of the season, with last week's rankings in parentheses.

Most Valuable Player

1. Derrick Rose - CHI - 25.1 pts, 4.2 reb, 7.9 ast (3)
Rose hit for 30 points twice this week, the most important coming in last night's win over Boston that basically locked up the top seed in the East, and the Bulls have won 5 straight games. They now sit 1/2 game behind the Spurs for the best record in the league, and if Rose can lead Chicago past them, he will not lose the MVP race.

2. LeBron James - MIA - 26.7 pts, 7.5 reb, 7.0 ast (1)
LeBron played pretty well last night, tallying 29 points and 8 assists on the night, but his Heat lost for the second time in 9 days to a team that will miss the playoffs, and along with it lost their shot at the top seed in the East, which means a probable second round date with Boston.

3. Dwyane Wade - MIA - 25.7 pts, 6.5 reb, 4.5 ast (2)
Wade sat out Miami's loss to Milwaukee last night, and his slim MVP chances have all but evaporated now that the Heat won't finish at the top of the East. Without being the best player on his own team, he won't get many votes as the most valuable player in the league.

4. Kobe Bryant - LAL - 25.1 pts, 5.1 reb, 4.7 ast (4)
Kobe would have moved up into third place this week if the Lakers hadn't gone from incredibly hot to a 3-game losing streak almost overnight. The loss to Utah can be pinned directly on Kobe, after he let the ball slip out of his hands in the final seconds of a 1-point loss.

5. Kevin Durant - OKC - 27.8 pts, 6.9 reb, 2.8 ast (6)
Durant had 32 points and 9 rebounds in Oklahoma City's win over Denver this week, which was doubly important for the Thunder, who will likely face the Nuggets in the first round of the playoffs. To add to that, the Nuggets had been one of the hottest teams in the league heading into that game, and the Thunder shut them down behind Durant's leadership.

6. Pau Gasol - LAL - 18.9 pts, 10.1 reb, 3.3 ast (5)
Pau did not reach 20 points in any of the Lakers' 4 games this week, and the Lakers lost 3 of 4. The Lakers are a team that needs both of their stars hitting on all cylinders to be successful, and Kobe has been doing his job, for the most part.

7. Russell Westbrook - OKC - 21.8 pts, 4.6 reb, 8.2 ast (7)
It wasn't a great week for Westbrook, but he didn't do enough damage to his overall season to justify dropping him any farther in the rankings. There is a good chance that he could be passed up next week, but that depends on how Dwight Howard finishes.

8. Dwight Howard - ORL - 23.1 pts, 14.1 reb, 2.4 blk (9)
Howard scored 31 points against Toronto on Sunday, then had 18 points and 17 rebounds against Milwaukee on Tuesday, but in Wednesday's game against Charlotte he was charged with his 18th technical of the season, meaning that he will have to sit out Orlando's showdown with Chicago on Sunday.

9. Dirk Nowitzki - DAL - 23.0 pts, 7.0 reb, 2.5 ast (8)
Dallas has lost four straight games, and Dirk's highest scoring output of the week was 20 points in their loss to Denver on Wednesday. If they're not careful, they'll slip down to the 4th seed and have to face the red-hot Nuggets in the first round.

10. LaMarcus Aldridge - POR - 21.8 pts, 8.7 reb, 2.1 ast (10)
Aldridge did nothing special this week, other than keeping his Trail Blazers in the 6th spot in the West. With a playoff berth already wrapped up, Aldridge needs to make sure he can stay healthy for the playoffs, because the last thing Portland needs is another injury.

Rookie of the Year

1. Blake Griffin - LAC - 22.5 pts, 12.2 reb, 3.7 ast (1)
Griffin put on a show in his hometown on Wednesday, scoring 35 points to go with 11 rebounds and 8 dunks as the Clippers nearly pulled off the huge upset of the Thunder, who clinched their division title that night.

2. John Wall - WAS - 16.3 pts, 4.6 reb, 8.5 ast (2)
Wall came back after missing a game and a half with a very strong week, scoring 26 points to go with his 12 assists against Detroit, and helping the Wizards to their first 3-game winning streak of the season.

3. DeMarcus Cousins - SAC - 14.1 pts, 8.7 reb, 2.5 ast (3)
Cousins posted two straight double-doubles in Texas this week, a pretty good feat for any rookie, especially one who had not posted back-to-back double-doubles in three weeks.

4. Greg Monroe - DET - 9.3 pts, 7.4 reb, 1.3 ast (5)
Cousins wasn't the only rookie not named Blake Griffin to post consecutive double-doubles this week. Greg Monroe did it too, and both of his came with 20-point scoring outputs as well.

5. Landry Fields - NYK - 9.8 pts, 6.3 reb, 1.9 ast (4)
Fields has become the forgotten man in New York lately, averaging under 5 points, 3 rebounds, and 2 assists per game in New York's five-game winning streak. Maybe it would have been better if he had been sent to Denver in the Carmelo trade.

Sixth Man of the Year

1. Lamar Odom - LAL - 14.3 pts, 8.7 reb, 3.0 ast (1)
I believe that Odom should have this award wrapped up, but I'm not sure that the voters quite see it that way yet. After he completely showed up the player (Jason Terry) that most believe to be his closest competitor a week ago, how can you argue with giving it to him?

2. Ramon Sessions - CLE - 13.0 pts, 3.2 reb, 5.2 ast (NR)
Sessions has returned to his role as a backup, which has made him eligible for this award once again, and the Cavaliers are playing better with him in that role, winning two in a row for the first time since early November.

3. Jason Terry - DAL - 15.9 pts, 1.9 reb, 4.2 ast (2)
Terry has only scored in double figures twice in the past five games, and the Mavericks have only won once in that time. With both him and Nowitzki struggling, Dallas is limping into the playoffs in a season where they were once threatening for the best record.

4. Shawn Marion - DAL - 12.3 pts, 6.8 reb, 1.3 ast (3)
At least one Maverick has been on his game this week. Shawn Marion averaged over 20 points per game this week while grabbing nearly 8 rebounds to go with it. Marion made 67% of his shots this week and looked like the Matrix of old for a while.

5. J.R. Smith - DEN - 12.1 pts, 4.1 reb, 2.2 ast (5)
Smith's 23 points in Dallas on Wednesday were enough to just barely keep him holding on to this spot ahead of Thaddeus Young, who was at #4 last week. The Nuggets seem to be just fine with Smith streakiness, just considering it a bonus when he's on.

Most Improved Player

1. Dorell Wright - GSW - +9.1 pts, +2.0 reb, +1.6 ast (1)
Wright shot under 25% for the week and dealt a bit of a blow to his MIP candidacy, but when looking at his improvement overall from last season, it's obvious that he should be among the top few candidates.

2. D.J. Augustin - CHA - +8.0 pts, +1.6 reb, +3.5 ast (2)
The Bobcats have finally been eliminated from playoff contention, but Augustin did all he could this week to keep them in range of the Pacers. Two straight games of 20+ points weren't quite enough, but Augustin should be a solid point guard for Charlotte going forward.

3. Kevin Love - MIN - +6.2 pts, +4.2 reb, +0.2 ast (3)
Love is most likely out for the season, but what a season it was for the new rebound king. He broke Moses Malone's modern record for consecutive double-doubles and played in his first All-Star Game, all despite playing for a team that is now in last place overall.

4. Nick Young - WAS - +8.8 pts, +1.3 reb, +0.6 ast (4)
Young is another player who had a huge improvement while playing for one of the league's worst teams. Young did not make an appearance in the All-Star Game, but it may not be too far off in his future if he continues his upward trend next season.

5. Jrue Holiday - PHI - +5.9 pts, +1.4 reb, +2.6 ast (5)
Philadelphia has slipped to the 7th spot in the East with 3 straight losses, but Holiday has scored in double figures in 9 straight games now, his third-longest streak of the season. He will be the only player from this list who gets to keep playing after next week.

NBA Player of the Day

Derrick Rose - CHI - 30 pts, 5 reb, 8 ast, 2 stl, 9-16 FG, 2-5 3P, 10-10 FT
Rose showed why he is the leading MVP candidate last night as he tore apart the Boston Celtics, Chicago's nearest competitor in the East, en route to a win that nearly clinched the top spot for the Bulls. Chicago will be the top seed in the East next time they win or Boston loses.

Predictions - 8 Apr

Upsets picks are in italics.
Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Hawks at Pacers - Pacers by 2
Knicks at Nets - Knicks by 4
Raptors at 76ers - 76ers by 10
Wizards at Celtics - Celtics by 16
Bulls at Cavaliers - Bulls by 13
Bucks at Pistons - Bucks by 1
Bobcats at Heat - Heat by 13
Suns at Hornets - Hornets by 5
Nuggets at Thunder - Thunder by 1
Kings at Grizzlies - Grizz by 10
Clippers at Mavericks - Mavs by 9
Lakers at Trail Blazers - Lakers by 1

Prediction Results - 7 Apr

NBA: 2-0 (1.000) 698-295 overall (.703)