Saturday, August 31, 2019

Top 50 NFL Quarterbacks: #2 - Joe Montana


Joe Montana

Joe Montana was a 3rd round pick by the 49ers in 1979, but hardly even saw the field as a rookie. He took over the starting job midway through his second season, but both he and the team were horrible. That would all change in his 3rd season.

1981 would be the first year that he showed his true promise. He led the league in completion percentage with 63.7%, threw 3565 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, and led the 49ers to the best record in the league at 13-3. In his first ever playoff appearance, he was able to get past the Giants and Cowboys to reach his first Super Bowl, then won the Super Bowl MVP after throwing 157 yards and a touchdown while running for another.

The 1982 season was a strange one for Montana. The season was shortened to 9 games by a strike, but he led the league in touchdowns with 17 and had the highest per-game yardage of his career, but the 49ers finished at 3-6 the year after winning it all.

His personal rise continued in 1983, as he reached 3910 passing yards and 26 touchdowns, and the team made it back to the playoffs, advancing as far as the NFC title game before falling to Washington, ending up one game short of getting back to the championship.

He finally put it all together in 1984, with 3630 yards and 28 touchdowns, while San Francisco finished at 15-1, becoming the first team in history to reach 15 wins in a regular season. Despite throwing more picks than touchdowns in the first two playoff games, the 49ers still advanced to the Super Bowl again, where Montana put on a show, throwing 331 yards and 3 touchdowns while winning his second Super Bowl MVP.

They followed up their second Super Bowl win with another dud, although Montana did have a pretty good season overall. The 49ers barely made it into the playoffs, then lost in the wild card game, meaning that they followed up a championship season with no playoff wins just like before.

Montana suffered a serious back injury during week one of the 1986 season, and he was told by doctors that he should retire, but after surgery and rehab, he came back to finish out the season, and though his numbers for the season looked terrible, he won the Comeback Player of the Year award for making it back from such a terrible injury.

He missed 5 more game in 1987 due to injury, but set a career high with 31 touchdowns, which led the league for the entire season. That is also the season that Steve Young first joined the team, and he started to show some promise filling in for Montana through injuries. The Niners would fail to win a playoff game for the third season in a row, leading many to wonder whether Montana should be replaced by Young permanently.

Young did start a few games in 1988, and Montana's numbers took a hit as a result, but the 49ers would make the playoffs, and Montana would lead a great playoff run, with a total of 8 touchdowns and only 1 interception in the three games, and it ended with a 3rd Super Bowl victory. He threw 357 yards and 2 touchdowns in the Super Bowl, with 215 of those yards going to Jerry Rice, who took home the MVP.

Despite being a 3-time champion, Montana had never won a regular-season MVP, but that changed in 1989, when he put up his best season ever. He completed 70.2% of his passes, which led the league for the 5th time, and had 26 touchdowns with only 8 picks, and the 49ers finished at 14-2, best in the league by far. That year's playoff run was one of the greatest of all time, with a total of 800 yards and 11 touchdowns without an interception over 3 games, a feat only matched by Joe Flacco in 2012. His Super Bowl performance was also one of the best ever, with 297 yards and 5 touchdowns without an interception, earning him a 3rd Super Bowl MVP, becoming the first player ever to achieve that feat.

He was great again in 1990, taking home his second straight MVP award while setting a career high with 3944 passing yards, but his interceptions did double to 16, which makes it rank just a notch lower in his career hierarchy. They seemed well on their way to a third straight Super Bowl win, which has never been achieved, but he suffered a severe elbow injury late in the NFC title game, which allowed the Giants to end their chance at a three-peat.

The elbow injury turned out to be very severe, causing Montana to miss nearly two full seasons, with only a relief appearance in the final game of 1992 in that entire time. After the season ended, a full-blown quarterback controversy ensued, due to Steve Young leading them to the playoffs and winning the MVP in 1992. The result was that Montana was traded to Kansas City prior to the 1993 season, allowing him to continue his career.

He was definitely not the same player with the Chiefs, tossing a career low in yardage for a season in which he started most of the games, and had only 13 touchdown passes, but he did get the Chiefs to the AFC title game, which didn't do much for his ranking, but shows that he was a winner. He played one more mediocre season before retiring.

While many consider Montana the greatest of all time due to his 4-0 record in Super Bowls, his injury-plagued career was cut short, causing him to miss out on several years that could have catapulted him to the top. He had only 2 MVP seasons, but 3 Super Bowl MVP's and 4 championships. He had 9 seasons as an elite quarterback in the NFL, comprising the entire decade of the 1980's, other than the 1986 season that he nearly missed. He was the greatest QB of all time until the end of the 2017 season, when he was surpassed by a passer whose career was nearly twice as long, but there is no doubt that Montana is one of the greatest to ever play the game.



Wednesday, August 28, 2019

NCAA Football Predictions - 29 Aug thru 2 Sep

Upset picks are in italics.

Thursday

UCLA at Cincinnati - Bearcats by 21
Wagner at UConn - Seahawks by 8.5
Albany at Central Michigan - Chippewas by 19.5
Morgan State at Bowling Green - Falcons by 3.5
Robert Morris at Buffalo - Bulls by 18
Florida A&M at (17) UCF - Knights by 46.5
Central Arkansas at Western Kentucky - Hilltoppers by 18.5
Gardner-Webb at Charlotte - 49ers by 19
Georgia Tech at (1) Clemson - Tigers by 42
FIU at Tulane - Green Wave by 7
Alabama State at UAB - Blazers by 24.5
Texas State at (12) Texas A&M - Aggies by 37.5
South Dakota State at Minnesota - Gophers by 31
Kent State at Arizona State - Sun Devils by 14
Northern Colorado at San Jose State - Spartans by 9.5
(14) Utah at BYU - Utes by 6.5

Friday

Rice at Army - Black Knights by 37.5
Tulsa at (18) Michigan State - Spartans by 28
(19) Wisconsin at South Florida - Badgers by 6.5
UMass at Rutgers - Scarlet Knights by 14.5
Utah State at Wake Forest - Aggies by 1.5
Purdue at Nevada - Wolf Pack by 3
Colorado State vs. Colorado - Buffaloes by 18.5
Oklahoma State at Oregon State - Cowboys by 8.5

Saturday

Florida Atlantic at (5) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 21.5
Northern Iowa at (21) Iowa State - Cyclones by 25
South Alabama at (24) Nebraska - Cornhuskers by 33
Akron at Illinois - Illini by 4.5
Indiana vs. Ball State - Hoosiers by 21
Howard at Maryland - Terrapins by 28.5
Indiana State at Kansas - Jayhawks by 11.5
Toledo at Kentucky - Wildcats by 16.5
Ole Miss at Memphis - Tigers by 16
Mississippi State vs. Louisiana - Bulldogs by 13
East Carolina at NC State - Wolfpack by 28.5
James Madison at West Virginia - Mountaineers by 27.5
Rhode Island at Ohio - Bobcats by 26
Eastern Washington at (13) Washington - Huskies by 32.5
Bucknell at Temple - Owls by 24
Duke vs. (2) Alabama - Crimson Tide by 26.5
Idaho at (15) Penn State - Nittany Lions by 28
Colgate at Air Force - Falcons by 22
Holy Cross at Navy - Midshipmen by 12
Eastern Michigan at Coastal Carolina - Eagles by 7.5
South Carolina vs. North Carolina - Gamecocks by 14.5
Georgia State at Tennessee - Volunteers by 32
East Tennessee State at Appalachian State - Mountaineers by 42.5
Northwestern at (25) Stanford - Cardinal by 9
Portland State at Arkansas - Razorbacks by 31.5
Montana State at Texas Tech - Red Raiders by 28.5
Virginia Tech at Boston College - Eagles by 12.5
(22) Syracuse at Liberty - Orange by 7.5
Sam Houston State at New Mexico - Lobos by 12
Incarnate Word at UTSA - Roadrunners by 3.5
Campbell at Troy - Trojans by 25
UC Davis at California - Golden Bears by 17.5
VMI at Marshall - Thundering Herd by 25.5
Norfolk State at Old Dominion - Monarchs by 5
Alcorn State at Southern Miss - Golden Eagles by 23.5
Illinois State at Northern Illinois - Huskies by 29.5
Monmouth at Western Michigan - Broncos by 17.5
SMU at Arkansas State - Mustangs by 1
Boise State vs. Florida State - Seminoles by 1.5
Nicholls at Kansas State - Wildcats by 22.5
Stephen F Austin at Baylor - Bears by 29
(3) Georgia at Vanderbilt - Bulldogs by 9.5
Georgia Southern at (6) LSU - Tigers by 20
Middle Tennessee at (7) Michigan - Wolverines by 21
(11) Oregon vs. (16) Auburn - Tigers by 5
Miami (OH) at (20) Iowa - Hawkeyes by 26.5
Missouri at Wyoming - Tigers by 18
Abilene Christian at North Texas - Mean Green by 30.5
Virginia at Pittsburgh - Panthers by 2
Louisiana Tech at (10) Texas - Longhorns by 17
Houston Baptist at UTEP - Huskies by 9.5
Arkansas-Pine Bluff at TCU - Horned Frogs by 32
Grambling at UL Monroe - Warhawks by 16
Weber State at San Diego State - Aztecs by 21
New Mexico State at (23) Washington State - Cougars by 25
Southern Utah at UNLV - Rebels by 11.5
Fresno State at USC - Trojans by 3

Sunday

Houston at (4) Oklahoma - Sooners by 15

Monday

(9) Notre Dame at Louisville - Irish by 20.5

Results

NCAAF: 2-0 (1.000)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000)

Top 50 NFL Quarterbacks: #3 - Steve Young


Steve Young

Steve Young had quite a long career in the NFL before becoming a star player, finally becoming a starter in the league at age 30. He spent 2 years playing for a horrible Buccaneers team before he was traded to the 49ers to back up Joe Montana in 1987, but ended up becoming one of the best players ever.

When Joe Montana went down with an elbow injury at the end of the 1990 season, Young took over at the helm of a team that had just narrowly missed a third straight Super Bowl win. He ended up missing 5 games in 1991 due to a knee injury, but he was already the best QB in the league in a down year for passers overall. Unfortunately, the result was a 10-6 record without a playoff berth.

In his second season as a starter for San Francisco, he threw 3465 yards, #2 in the league, while leading the league in completion percentage at 66.7% and touchdowns with 25, while tossing only 7 picks all year. The 49ers finished at 14-2, best in the league, and Young was awarded the MVP, but the season ended with a loss to Dallas in the NFC Championship Game.

He was even better in 1993, increasing his passing yardage to 4023, touchdowns to 29, and completion percentage to 68.0%. The 49ers won the division again, but once again they lost to Dallas in the NFC title game. He had been the best passer in the league for 3 years, but hadn't been able to break through that final barrier.

The next season was the best of his career in many ways. He led the league in touchdowns and completion percentage, both new career highs, led the 49ers to a 13-3 record, and won another MVP award. The playoffs were different this time, with Young leading them past Dallas in the NFC title game to get back to the Super Bowl for the first time as a starter. His performance in the Super Bowl was the best of all time, with 325 yards and 6 touchdowns, which set a Super Bowl record, as the 49ers destroyed the Chargers 49-26. He is the only player in Super Bowl history to lead all players in both passing and rushing yards in the championship game.

Over the next three seasons a series of minor injuries hampered him, causing him to miss several games, but he still led the league in completion percentage each season. All 3 of those seasons ended with losses to Green Bay in the playoffs. 

He had a renaissance season in 1998, when he set new career highs in passing yards and touchdowns, once again ranking as the best quarterback in the league, but the season still ended with a playoff loss. He had 2 concussions within the first 3 weeks in 1999, and ended up having to retire as a result.

In addition to being a great passer, Young was one of the best running quarterbacks throughout his career, leading all passers in rushing yards 3 times and coming in second twice. He is currently #3 all-time in rushing yards by a QB, and #2 in rushing touchdowns, and is also the all-time playoff leader in both categories. He led the league in touchdown passes a record 4 times, and completion percentage 5 times. And even though he only reached one Super Bowl as a starter, it was the best performance by a quarterback in the history of the title game. Add it all together, and you have one of the greatest players of all time.



Monday, August 26, 2019

Top 50 NFL Quarterbacks: #4 - Peyton Manning


Peyton Manning

Peyton Manning is always included in conversations about the greatest quarterbacks of all time, but he is rarely called the greatest due to the fact that despite his amazing regular season statistics, he won only 2 Super Bowls in his career. While he may not be the greatest champion in league history, he is possibly the greatest regular season player ever, and had greater longevity than nearly every other QB in history.

He began his career as a #1 pick in 1998, going to the Indianapolis Colts, where he was immediately inserted as the starting quarterback. In his 18 seasons, he has only missed a total of 22 games, comprising the entire 2011 season, when he sat out due to two neck surgeries, and 6 games in his final season. His rookie season and his final season were the only times in his entire career when he wasn't one of the top passers in the entire league.

He vaulted to the top of the league in his second season, with 4135 yards, 26 touchdowns, and only 15 interceptions, and the Colts improved by 10 games, to 13-3. They would lose in their first playoff game, however, which would become a pattern in his career, with 9 seasons ending with a loss in his first playoff game.

In his third season, he led the league with 4413 yards and 33 touchdowns, the first of many times he would lead the league in each. He failed to win a playoff game once again, and didn't even get the Colts to the playoff the following year. It would be the final time he would miss the playoffs. 

In 2003, he led the league in yardage for the second time, winning his first MVP award while leading Indy to a 12-4 record, and once the playoffs started, he finally got things on track. In his first ever playoff win, he threw 377 yards and 5 touchdowns, destroying the Broncos 41-10. He threw 304 yards and 3 touchdowns in the next round, getting to his first AFC title game, where the Colts fell to Tom Brady and the Patriots 24-14.

He followed up his first MVP season with a repeat performance, throwing 4557 yards, his best to that point, along with 49 touchdowns, which broke Dan Marino's long-standing record of 48, and had only 10 interceptions. He was awarded his 2nd MVP for that amazing performance, but fell to New England in the playoffs again.

In 2005 he posted his worst statistical season since he was a rookie, missing the 4000 yard mark for only the second time in his career, but the Colts finished with a 14-2 record, the best of Manning's career. It was Pittsburgh that would end his season early this time, the third straight season he fell to the eventual champions in the playoffs.

In 2006 he was back on top, leading the league in touchdown passes for the third time, and he finally exorcised his playoff demons, taking out the Patriots in the AFC title game and reaching his first Super Bowl. He was not great in that game, with 247 yards and 1 touchdown, but it was enough for him to earn the Super Bowl MVP.

He was his usual great self in 2007, but was overshadowed by Tom Brady, who broke his record when he reached 50 touchdown passes while leading the Patriots to an undefeated season. Manning would bow out in his first playoff game once again. When Brady was hurt at the beginning of 2008, Manning looked to have a clear path to another title, but despite winning his 3rd MVP, he couldn't get past his first playoff opponent again.

In 2009 he was even better, with 4500 yards and 33 touchdowns, and the Colts were better also, getting back to 14-2. He pushed right through the playoffs, getting to the Super Bowl for the second time, and while he played better than the previous game, his 333 yards and 1 touchdown weren't enough to stop Drew Brees and the Saints.

In 2010 he set a new career high with 4700 yards, but the Colts only won 10 games, their lowest total in 8 years. After another first round playoff exit, he went to a doctor about neck pain that he had been having for several years, and discovered that he would need surgery on his neck, and the recovery cost him the entire 2011 season. Nervous about how he would fare after his return, the Colts released him before the 2012 season.

He signed with Denver during the offseason, and posted one of the best seasons of his career, with 4659 yards and 37 touchdowns while leading the Broncos to a 13-3 record. He was awarded the Comeback Player of the Year Award for his great season, but was also back to his old tricks in the playoffs, losing in the first game once again.

The 2013 season would be truly historic, and ranks as one of the best seasons ever by any quarterback. He broke Drew Brees' passing yard record when he finished with 5477, and he broke Tom Brady's touchdown record with 55. He also threw only 10 interceptions all season, and was one of the easiest choices for MVP in history. The first two playoff games went great, with another win over Tom Brady and the Patriots in the AFC title game earning a third Super Bowl berth, but the big game couldn't have gone much worse, and they were destroyed 43-8.

In 2014 he became one of the oldest passers ever to play at an elite level, passing for 4727 yards and 39 touchdowns, a bit lower than the previous season but still better than most of the league. He was disappointed with another quick playoff exit, continuing his career trend.

He had his worst statistical season in 2015, battling foot issues that were serious enough that the iron man sat out 6 games in the middle of the season. He came back for the playoffs, and they ran through the competition to get Peyton his second Super Bowl title, though it was the defense that won, and not anything in particular that Manning did.

Manning threw for over 4000 yards 14 times, a league record, and over 30 touchdowns 9 times, which trails only Drew Brees' 10. He has a record 5 MVP's, and owns the single season records for both touchdowns and yardage, along with the career record for touchdowns. But while he dominated the regular season like no other, he was rarely on top of his game in the playoffs, losing his first playoff game 9 times, many of which were upsets, but there is no doubt that he is one of the greatest to ever play the game.



Saturday, August 24, 2019

Friday, August 23, 2019

Top 50 NFL Quarterbacks: #5 - Otto Graham


Otto Graham

Otto Graham was the first great quarterback who started his career as a quarterback, an heir to Luckman and Baugh, the creators of the position. Graham is one of the greatest winners in the history of football, advancing to the championship game in all 10 seasons of his career, although the first 4 came in the AAFC, a small league that was eventually absorbed by the NFL.

The NFL does not consider AAFC statistics official, so Graham's first 4 seasons are not usually counted toward his career numbers, but since multiple teams from the AAFC joined the NFL when the league folded, and the Browns won the first title after the two merged, I feel the league should be seen as an equal and the stats should be counted.

When the AAFC and the Cleveland Browns finally joined the NFL in 1950, Graham had already won 4 straight championships in his first 4 seasons as a professional. In that season, Graham's numbers dropped significantly against slightly superior competition, but Cleveland still won their division and advanced to the title game, where they defeated the LA Rams, with Graham throwing 298 yards and 4 touchdowns.

In 1951, he played a little better during the regular season, and Cleveland finished at 11-1, but his 3 picks in the title game caused him to finish his season with a loss for the first time in his career. He bounced back the next season by leading the NFL in yardage, completions, attempts, touchdowns, and interceptions, and Cleveland's 8-4 record was good enough to get them back to the championship game, but he again choked in the championship, going without a touchdown pass.

In 1953 he decreased with pass attempts, but kept his passing yardage at the top of the league, which led to him leading the league in completion percentage, earning him the MVP while the Browns went 11-1. He again went without a TD in the title game, though, which caused their third straight failure to win a title.

He dropped his numbers back closer to the league average the next year, but still pushed the Browns to the title game, where he finally pulled it together, tossing 3 touchdowns as they knocked out the Lions, who had defeated them in 2 previous title games, 56-10.

In 1955, he had his least successful statistical season, yet was rewarded with his 2nd MVP award. He led them to the title game once again, playing just well enough to get them one last title before he retired at the end of the season. After he retired, the Browns missed the playoffs for the first time in their history, finishing with a losing record in 1956.

In all, he played 6 NFL seasons and 10 overall, getting to the championship game every single season and winning the title 7 times, 4 in the AAFC and 3 in the NFL. His overall career winning percentage was 81.4%, the highest of any player in history, and he was twice the league MVP. He is the only player in the history of pro sports to reach the title game in every season of his career (Bill Russell was close), and the only player with more total championships than Tom Brady, but his short career leaves him at #5 among the best of all time.


Wednesday, August 21, 2019

Top 50 NFL Quarterbacks: #6 - Aaron Rodgers


Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers spent 3 years backing up another one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, Brett Favre, to open his career, but in the 11 years since, he has proven that he is also one of the greatest ever to play the position.

His first season as a starter was his worst full season until last year, as he finished with "only" 4038 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. In his full seasons since, he has had fewer yards only twice, fewer touchdowns once, and has never had more interceptions. It was also the last time the Packers would miss the playoffs for nearly a decade.

In 2009, he was already the best QB in the entire league, throwing for 4434 yards, 30 touchdowns, and only 7 picks, and the Packers finished at 11-5. They lost in the wild card game to the Arizona Cardinals, but it wasn't because of Rodgers. He finished his first playoff start with 423 yards and 4 touchdowns, but was outplayed by Kurt Warner in a 51-45 shootout loss.

He completed his ascension to the peak in his third season, when he had a pretty good regular season, but destroyed the competition in the playoffs. In the first two games combined, he threw over 540 yards and 6 touchdowns without an interception. After a rough game against Chicago that they still won 21-14, he made it to the Super Bowl and had a great game, with 304 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no interceptions for the third time in the postseason. That performance made him the Super Bowl MVP.

Right after the best postseason of his career, he came back with the best regular season of his career, and one of the greatest of all time. He threw career highs of 4643 yards and 45 touchdowns, and had only 6 interceptions all season. The team finished the season 15-1, and Rodgers was named the league's MVP, as if there could be any question after a season of that magnitude.

He was great again in 2012, with 4295 yards and 39 touchdowns, a little lower than the season before, but the season ended early again with a loss in the divisional round of the playoffs. He was on pace for another great season in 2013, but broke his collarbone and missed the final 7 games.

He came back at full strength in 2013, with 4381 yards and 38 touchdowns with a new career-low of 5 picks, and Green Bay finished at 12-4, tied for the best in the NFC. He was awarded his second NFL MVP award after the season, and he led the Pack to the NFC title game, where they lost a close one to Seattle, 28-22.

In 2016 he had another great season, leading the league in touchdowns with 40, and became one of only 4 passers ever to record 40 more than once, joining Brees, Manning, and Marino. He also led the Packers back to the NFC title game for the third time in his career, with numbers in 3 games that nearly mirrored his numbers in 4 games from the Super Bowl season, but they fell short of the ultimate prize again.

His 2017 season ended early after another broken collarbone, and the Packers missed the playoffs for the first time since his first season as a starter. The team struggled again in 2018, but Rodgers was his usual efficient self, throwing 25 touchdowns with only 2 interceptions all season. 

Rodgers has been one of the top quarterbacks in the league for most of his career. He has never had fewer than 3800 yards or 25 touchdowns, and never more than 13 interceptions in a full season. His career TD:INT ratio is more than 4:1, which is by far the best in history. Add in 2 MVP's and a Super Bowl MVP, and you have one of the greatest in history, and he should still have several good years ahead of him.


Monday, August 19, 2019

Top 50 NFL Quarterbacks: #7 - Drew Brees


Drew Brees

Drew Brees was not expected to be one of the all-time greats when his career began, as he was considered small for an NFL quarterback and didn't come from a traditional college powerhouse. He was drafted by the San Diego Chargers in the second round of the 2001 NFL Draft, but only saw action in one game during his rookie season.

He won the starting job from Doug Flutie before the 2002 season, and was a usable starter, but did nothing of note. His second season as a starter was a disaster, and he lost his starting job back to Flutie midway through the season. When San Diego picked up Philip Rivers on Draft Day in 2004, it appeared that Brees was headed out of town, but that isn't quite what happened.

His impending replacement seemed to wake him up, and he started to show flashes of his future brilliance in 2004, putting up 3159 yards and 27 touchdowns with only 7 interceptions. He also had his first playoff appearance, although it ended quickly, going down 20-17 in the wild card round. He was about as good in 2005, but tore his labrum and rotator cuff in his throwing shoulder in the final game of the season, and San Diego did not want to commit much to him, so he walked away, signing with New Orleans, which turned out to be the best decision he ever made.

In his first season with the Saints, he led the league in passing with 4418 yards, which would turn out to be one of the lowest totals of his Saints career, and led the Saints to the playoffs, one season after they finished 3-13. Not only did they make the playoffs, they went clear to the NFC Championship Game, where they fell to the Bears, but it was just the start of something great.

After putting up nearly the same numbers in 2007 but missing the playoffs, he had an amazing season in 2008, becoming only the second player in league history to reach 5000 yards, coming up just 15 yards short of breaking Dan Marino's 24-year-old record. He also led the league with 34 touchdown passes, but New Orleans missed the playoffs again, making his amazing season a little less meaningful.

In 2009 he had the lowest passing yard total of his Saints career, reaching "only" 4388, but did lead the league with 34 touchdowns, and New Orleans led the NFC with a 13-3 record. He had a great postseason, throwing three touchdowns in each of the playoff games leading up to the Super Bowl, which was a first in Saints history. In the Super Bowl, he outplayed Peyton Manning by throwing 288 yards and 2 touchdowns as the Saints won 31-17, earning Brees the Super Bowl MVP.

His follow-up season wasn't quite as good, with 4620 yards, 33 touchdowns, and a career-high 22 interceptions, and the Saints ended up losing in the wild card round. 2011, however, was a different story, as he destroyed Dan Marino's yardage record, breaking it with a week to spare and ending up with 5476. He also led the league in touchdowns with 46 and set another record with a 71.2% completion percentage. He was also great in the playoffs, throwing 466 yards and 3 touchdowns in a wild card win, then throwing 462 yards and 4 touchdowns in a loss to the 49ers in the divisional round.

The Saints were severely hampered by the Bountygate scandal the next year, causing them to win only 7 games as several players and coaches were suspended during the season, but Brees was his usual awesome self, leading the league with 5177 yards and 43 touchdowns. He also became the first and only player to reach 5000 yards in consecutive seasons.

In 2013 he did it again, passing for 5162 yards and 39 touchdowns, but was overshadowed by Peyton Manning breaking his yardage record by a single yard while setting the touchdown record as well. He did get the full-strength Saints back to the playoffs, but they only reached the second round of the playoffs.

The 2014 season was a bit of a disappointment for Brees, as he missed the 5000 yards plateau for the first time in 4 years, ending the season just short at 4952, which was still enough to lead the league, and the Saints missed the playoffs despite playing in the weakest division. While that would still be considered a career year for most players, for Brees it was a little lackluster.

The last 4 years have been full of records and milestones. In 2015 he tied the record for touchdown passes in a game with 7. He also led the league in passing yards for the season, and repeated the feat in 2016, giving him 7 seasons as the top dog, which is also a record. He also surpassed 5000 yards again in 2016 for the 5th time in his career, and he owns five of the eleven 5000 yard seasons in history, with 6 others (Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, Patrick Mahomes, Ben Roethlisberger, and Matthew Stafford) reaching that level once each.

In 2018, he broke 2 of the big passing records, breaking Brett Favre's record for career completions in Week 3, then breaking Peyton Manning's record for career yardage in Week 5. He is also within striking distance of Peyton's career touchdown record this season, needing only 20 to become the all-time leader, though Tom Brady is also right on his heels, needing only 23 himself.

Brees has had less playoff success than most of the other members of the top 10, but he did have a big Super Bowl victory and one other great playoff run two years later. What qualifies him to be this high is his record-setting passing. In addition to the records listed above, he also holds the record for most consecutive 4000 yard seasons, with 12, a streak that came to an end last season after he fell 8 yards short of that number. He also has the highest completion percentage in a season, which he has broken twice, and the highest in a career. He was the first QB ever to throw 40 touchdowns in back-to-back seasons, and holds the record for most consecutive games with a touchdown pass, breaking a very old record belonging to Johnny Unitas. There is no doubt that he is one of the greatest to ever play the game.



Saturday, August 17, 2019

NCAA Football Preseason Rankings

A whole new season of college football is starting next week, and though there have been a lot of changes throughout the country, a couple of things never seem to change, those being the two teams at the top, Clemson and Alabama. I have analyzed every team's roster, depth chart, and schedule and used them to adjust their final ranking from last season to determine their preseason rank and projected final regular season record.

The defending champs start out at #1, and they should finish there as well, as they are projected as the only team to finish undefeated, with a 91.6% chance of that happening, which is the highest I have ever seen in my years of ranking teams. Their only real chance at a loss is in the final week of the season, when they face South Carolina in their rivalry game.

Alabama has a 27.6% chance of finishing undefeated, but their path is much tougher, with several tough SEC road games, and they are one of 5 SEC teams in the top 10. (By contrast, there is no other ACC team in the top 25.) The Tide will be favored in all of their games, but there are plenty of chances to slip up.

In addition to the two perennials, I am projecting Oklahoma, led by former Alabama QB Jalen Hurts, and Utah, as Pac 12 champs, to snag the final 2 spots in this year's playoff. UCF will again be in the running, but they will need to win every game, especially their trip to Cincinnati at the start of October, and hope all of the other major conference champs lose at least 2 games.

Below are my full preseason rankings, with last year's final ranking included, and projected conference champs in bold:







Proj


Rank
LW
Team
Rating
W
L
W
L
SOS
MOV
1
1
Clemson
-32.87
0
0
12
0


2
2
Alabama
-27.98
0
0
11
1


3
15
UCF
-24.75
0
0
11
1


4
12
Florida
-22.77
0
0
9
3


5
20
Appalachian St
-20.76
0
0
11
1


6
10
LSU
-19.69
0
0
9
3


7
3
Georgia
-19.35
0
0
9
3


8
11
Missouri
-18.54
0
0
9
3


9
28
Utah
-17.47
0
0
10
2


10
6
Oklahoma
-17.4
0
0
10
2


11
46
Michigan St
-17.24
0
0
10
2


12
4
Notre Dame
-16.77
0
0
10
2


13
8
Michigan
-15.86
0
0
9
3


14
18
Iowa
-15.58
0
0
9
3


15
29
Cincinnati
-15.39
0
0
10
2


16
9
Texas A&M
-14.99
0
0
7
5


17
23
Kentucky
-14.64
0
0
8
4


18
5
Mississippi St
-14.3
0
0
8
4


19
16
Auburn
-13.8
0
0
7
5


20
27
Texas
-13.69
0
0
9
3


21
34
South Carolina
-11.61
0
0
5
7


22
14
Utah State
-11.25
0
0
9
3


23
7
Ohio State
-11.14
0
0
8
4


24
58
Nebraska
-11
0
0
8
4


25
36
Wisconsin
-10.96
0
0
8
4


26
31
Miami
-10.55
0
0
9
3


27
24
Washington
-10.46
0
0
9
3


28
59
TCU
-10.27
0
0
8
4


29
98
Arkansas
-9.799
0
0
7
5


30
42
Boston College
-9.772
0
0
8
4


31
72
Indiana
-9.483
0
0
8
4


32
48
Minnesota
-9.185
0
0
8
4


33
45
Oregon
-9.047
0
0
8
4


34
74
Tennessee
-8.575
0
0
6
6


35
70
North Texas
-8.509
0
0
9
3


36
25
Washington St
-8.362
0
0
8
4


37
13
Fresno State
-8.318
0
0
9
3


38
82
Northern Illinois
-7.799
0
0
7
4


39
33
Virginia
-7.798
0
0
9
3


40
30
Army
-7.6
0
0
11
2


41
65
Baylor
-7.074
0
0
8
4


42
68
USC
-7.047
0
0
6
6


43
73
Houston
-6.975
0
0
7
5


44
60
Maryland
-6.846
0
0
6
6


45
19
Syracuse
-6.652
0
0
7
5


46
49
BYU
-6.611
0
0
7
5


47
35
Stanford
-6.528
0
0
7
5


48
51
Texas Tech
-6.486
0
0
7
5


49
17
Penn State
-6.19
0
0
6
6


50
21
West Virginia
-5.786
0
0
6
6


51
84
Tulane
-5.585
0
0
7
5


52
38
Pittsburgh
-5.538
0
0
7
5


53
41
Vanderbilt
-5.516
0
0
5
7


54
37
Oklahoma State
-5.381
0
0
7
5


55
22
NC State
-5.295
0
0
7
5


56
61
Wake Forest
-5.249
0
0
7
5


57
52
Memphis
-4.942
0
0
8
4


58
88
Florida State
-4.478
0
0
6
6


59
55
Georgia Southern
-4.356
0
0
8
4


60
32
Ohio
-3.944
0
0
9
3


61
67
Marshall
-3.451
0
0
8
4


62
76
Florida Intl
-3.058
0
0
8
4


63
54
Troy
-3.01
0
0
8
4


64
40
Iowa State
-2.962
0
0
6
6


65
62
Toledo
-2.882
0
0
8
4


66
95
SMU
-2.851
0
0
7
5


67
26
Boise State
-2.849
0
0
8
4


68
56
Temple
-2.224
0
0
7
5


69
44
Northwestern
-2.199
0
0
6
6


70
79
Virginia Tech
-2.015
0
0
7
5


71
87
Southern Miss
-1.689
0
0
7
5


72
47
UAB
-1.612
0
0
8
4


73
85
Louisiana
-1.365
0
0
7
5


74
39
Duke
-1.283
0
0
5
7


75
92
Louisiana Tech
-1.02
0
0
8
4


76
75
Air Force
-0.344
0
0
7
5


77
53
Arizona State
-0.078
0
0
6
6


78
101
South Florida
0.052
0
0
7
5


79
83
Arizona
0.423
0
0
5
7


80
63
Mid Tennessee
0.569
0
0
6
6


81
71
Kansas State
0.691
0
0
5
7


82
78
Eastern Michigan
0.829
0
0
7
5


83
93
San Diego State
0.96
0
0
7
5


84
90
UCLA
0.989
0
0
4
8


85
89
Colorado
1.121
0
0
5
7


86
125
Central Michigan
2.308
0
0
6
6


87
43
Purdue
2.518
0
0
4
8


88
66
Arkansas State
2.715
0
0
7
5


89
100
Charlotte
2.865
0
0
6
6


90
91
North Carolina
3.027
0
0
3
9


91
111
West Kentucky
3.105
0
0
6
6


92
80
Nevada
3.787
0
0
7
5


93
57
Buffalo
3.836
0
0
6
6


94
102
Hawaii
3.94
0
0
5
8


95
77
California
4.087
0
0
4
8


96
86
Wyoming
4.141
0
0
6
6


97
94
West Michigan
4.275
0
0
6
6


98
50
Georgia Tech
4.941
0
0
4
8


99
105
Liberty
5.418
0
0
6
6


100
81
Florida Atlantic
5.652
0
0
5
7


101
97
Louisiana Monroe
5.786
0
0
6
6


102
103
Tulsa
6.086
0
0
4
8


103
69
Miami (OH)
6.22
0
0
5
7


104
64
Ole Miss
6.345
0
0
3
9


105
119
Oregon State
7.655
0
0
3
9


106
121
Louisville
8.245
0
0
2
10


107
109
Akron
9.31
0
0
5
7


108
113
Rutgers
9.444
0
0
2
10


109
106
Illinois
9.47
0
0
4
8


110
117
Kent State
9.497
0
0
4
8


111
99
Navy
9.623
0
0
4
8


112
110
New Mexico
9.668
0
0
5
7


113
107
UNLV
10.11
0
0
5
7


114
96
Kansas
10.57
0
0
2
10


115
108
Ball State
11.42
0
0
3
9


116
126
New Mexico St
12.33
0
0
3
9


117
116
San Jose State
12.51
0
0
3
9


118
104
Coastal Carolina
12.63
0
0
4
8


119
112
Old Dominion
17.04
0
0
3
9


120
122
South Alabama
17.29
0
0
2
10


121
115
Texas State
18.19
0
0
3
9


122
127
UT San Antonio
18.21
0
0
3
9


123
124
Bowling Green
18.22
0
0
2
10


124
123
East Carolina
18.55
0
0
2
9


125
120
Georgia State
18.86
0
0
2
10


126
114
UMass
19.32
0
0
3
9


127
118
Colorado State
19.74
0
0
1
11


128
128
Rice
25.41
0
0
1
11


129
130
Connecticut
30.58
0
0
1
11


130
129
UTEP
31.6
0
0
1
11