NFL Preseason Rankings - 2014

Last season, I picked Seattle to beat Denver in the Super Bowl before the season ever began, and that prediction turned out to be correct. It has been 10 years since a team has successfully defended its Super Bowl title, and Seattle is trying to break that streak, but it won't be easy to even win their own division. Starting with last season's final data, I have analyzed each team's roster moves and schedule and combined it all together to project each team's record for this season, as well as full playoff results. My initial rankings are below:

				Record		Proj		SOS
Rank	LW	Team	Rating	W	L	W	L	Curr	Overall
1	2	San Francisco	-16.5612			13	3		4
2	1	Seattle	-15.7751			13	3		6
3	5	Carolina	-7.07886			11	5		13
4	10	San Diego	-6.35415			10	6		8
5	16	Miami	-6.17126			11	5		28
6	8	Kansas City	-4.39326			9	7		7
7	9	Cincinnati	-4.32669			11	5		21
8	7	New England	-3.93026			9	7		23
9	11	Indianapolis	-3.84052			11	5		30
10	3	Denver	-3.51162			8	8		5
11	4	New Orleans	-3.41952			9	7		19
12	6	Arizona	-3.39549			8	8		3
13	19	Tampa Bay	-3.07649			10	6		16
14	26	NY Jets	-3.01029			9	7		15
15	14	Dallas	-2.43692			9	7		14
16	13	Philadelphia	0.478901			8	8		18
17	12	Saint Louis	1.229065			6	10		2
18	22	Buffalo	2.81265			7	9		27
19	17	Detroit	2.962201			7	9		24
20	18	Pittsburgh	3.392732			8	8		26
21	21	Atlanta	3.49321			7	9		9
22	20	Green Bay	5.502388			6	10		11
23	31	Washington	5.734292			6	10		10
24	24	Chicago	6.395868			6	10		17
25	15	Tennessee	6.65067			7	9		32
26	27	Minnesota	7.212893			6	10		22
27	23	Baltimore	7.531852			6	10		20
28	25	NY Giants	8.208296			5	11		12
29	30	Oakland	8.460439			4	12		1
30	28	Houston	9.991276			6	10		31
31	32	Jacksonville	12.0842			5	11		29
32	29	Cleveland	12.21521			4	12		25

The San Francisco 49ers have one of the league's toughest schedules, playing 6 games within their own division and 4 against the equally tough AFC West, but this is a solid team that was in the Super Bowl just 2 years ago, still has Frank Gore, who has broken 1000 yards in 7 of the past 8 seasons, and will be getting Michael Crabtree back from an injury. Whether or not they beat Seattle in the division, they will be playoff bound again.

Nearly half of Super Bowl participants in the past decade have missed the playoffs completely the following season, but Seattle does not look like the next victim of that curse. The Seahawks have a schedule that is nearly as tough as San Fran's, but they also have the league's best defense and a very capable young quarterback, along with Marshawn Lynch, who is coming off his third straight season of at least 1200 yards and 11 touchdowns.

San Diego barely made it into the playoffs last season after winning their final 4 games, but this season they will be looking to win the division, with Denver coming off an embarrassing Super Bowl loss and losing a lot of players to free agency, suspension, and injury. Will the Chargers finally win their first Super Bowl this season? Not likely, but they at least have a shot at getting there.

Miami looks to be one of the most improved teams in the league this season, with last season's distractions behind them and a very soft schedule that includes only 6 teams that made the playoffs last year. They lured Knowshon Moreno from Denver, but they will have to see how he recovers from his knee injury. Ryan Tannehill, meanwhile, continues to improve heading into his 3rd year, so this could be the year the Patriots finally hand over the division title.

Playoff Predictions

Wild Card

(6) Tampa Bay over (3) Dallas

(5) Seattle over (4) Detroit

(6) New England over (3) Cincinnati

(4) San Diego over (5) NY Jets

Divisional Round

(1) San Francisco over (6) Tampa Bay

(5) Seattle over (2) Carolina

(6) New England over (1) Indianapolis

(4) San Diego over (2) Miami

Conference Championships

(5) Seattle over (1) San Francisco

(4) San Diego over (6) New England

Super Bowl

Seattle over San Diego

College Football Predictions - 27 Aug to 1 Sep

Upset picks are in italics.

Wednesday

Abilene Christian at Georgia State - Wildcats by 4

Thursday

(21) Texas A&M at (9) South Carolina - Gamecocks by 26
Wake Forest at Louisiana-Monroe - Warhawks by 12
Eastern Illinois at Minnesota - Golden Gophers by 32
Howard at Akron - Zips by 30
Presbyterian at Northern Illinois - Huskies by 28
Chattanooga at Central Michigan - Chippewas by 24
Idaho State at Utah - Utes by 45
Boise State vs. (18) Ole Miss - Rebels by 1
Cal Poly at New Mexico State - Mustangs by 10
Tulane at Tulsa - Green Wave by 23
Temple at Vanderbilt - Owls by 1
Rutgers at Washington State - Cougars by 28
North Dakota at San Jose State - Spartans by 16
Weber State at (19) Arizona State - Sun Devils by 54

Friday

BYU at Connecticut - Cougars by 11
Villanova at Syracuse - Orange by 33
Jacksonville State at (8) Michigan State - Spartans by 57
Bowling Green at Western Kentucky - Falcons by 13
Colorado State vs. Colorado - Rams by 1
UTSA at Houston - Cougars by 33
UNLV at Arizona - Wildcats by 20

Saturday

Penn State vs. UCF - Nittany Lions by 7
(7) UCLA at Virginia - Bruins by 21
Delaware at Pittsburgh - Panthers by 35
Appalachian State at Michigan - Wolverines by 28
North Dakota State at Iowa State - Cyclones by 28
Indiana State at Indiana - Hoosiers by 20
Northern Iowa at Iowa - Hawkeyes by 51
(5) Ohio State at Navy - Buckeyes by 5
Western Michigan at Purdue - Boilermakers by 25
Troy at UAB - Trojans by 15
Tennessee-Martin at Kentucky - Wildcats by 16
Youngstown State at Illinois - Fightin Illini by 12
Wofford at Georgia Tech - Yellowjackets by 33
Georgia Southern at NC State - Wolfpack by 12
Colgate at Ball State - Cardinals by 17
Nicholls State at Air Force - Falcons by 15
Southern Utah at Nevada - Wolf Pack by 22
Boston College at Massachusetts - Minutemen by 8
James Madison at Maryland - Terrapins by 46
Florida Atlantic at (22) Nebraska - Cornhuskers by 15
California at Northwestern - Wildcats by 13
West Virginia vs. (2) Alabama - Crimson Tide by 37
Duquesne at Buffalo - Bulls by 10
Hampton at Old Dominion - Monarchs by 5
Rice at (17) Notre Dame - Fighting Irish by 12
Marshall at Miami (OH) - Thundering Herd by 28
South Dakota State at (24) Missouri - Tigers by 39
Montana at Wyoming - Cowboys by 2
Portland State at Oregon State - Beavers by 44
UC Davis at (11) Stanford - Cardinal by 57
Arkansas at (6) Auburn - Tigers by 35
William & Mary at Virginia Tech - Hokies by 38
(16) Clemson at (12) Georgia - Bulldogs by 20
Elon at Duke - Blue Devils by 39
Liberty at (23) North Carolina - Tar Heels by 53
Ohio at Kent State - Golden Flashes by 30
Morgan State at Eastern Michigan - Eagles by 2
New Hampshire at Toledo - Rockets by 15
Savannah State at Middle Tennessee - Blue Raiders by 17
Bethune-Cookman at FIU - Golden Panthers by 3
Northern Arizona at San Diego State - Aztecs by 15
Idaho at Florida - Gators by 42
Austin Peay at Memphis - Tigers by 34
Western Carolina at South Florida - Bulls by 10
Louisiana Tech at (4) Oklahoma - Sooners by 22
Samford at TCU - Horned Frogs by 36
Central Arkansas at Texas Tech - Red Raiders by 32
Montana State at Arkansas State - Red Wolves by 14
Southern at Louisiana-Lafayette - Ragin Cajuns by 38
Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Texas State - Bobcats by 20
Stephen F Austin at (20) Kansas State - Wildcats by 41
Fresno State at (15) USC - Trojans by 30
Southern Miss at Mississippi State - Bulldogs by 64
UTEP at New Mexico - Lobos by 20
North Texas at Texas - Longhorns by 37
North Carolina Central at East Carolina - Pirates by 33
(1) Florida State vs. Oklahoma State - Seminoles by 23
(14) Wisconsin vs. (13) LSU - Badgers by 20
(25) Washington at Hawaii - Huskies by 17
South Dakota at (3) Oregon - Ducks by 64

Sunday

Utah State at Tennessee - Volunteers by 13
SMU at (10) Baylor - Bears by 65

Monday

Miami (FL) at Louisville - Hurricanes by 6

College Football Preseason Rankings

In two weeks, football will be back, so it is time for my annual college football preview. As usual, I have taken each team's final rating from last season, adjusted it for all roster changes, and used that to determine each team's preliminary season rating. I then analyzed each team's schedule in order to determine strength of schedule and projected final record. Here are my first rankings of the 2014 season:

				Record		Proj		SOS
Rank	LW	Team	Rating	W	L	W	L	Curr	Overall
1	2	Oregon	-38.679			11	2		15
2	3	Baylor	-36.418			12	0		73
3	1	Florida State	-35.893			12	1		79
4	9	Auburn	-35.283			11	1		22
5	11	UCLA	-34.821			11	2		1
6	23	Michigan State	-32.12			11	2		51
7	4	Alabama	-31.625			12	1		53
8	5	Stanford	-31.557			9	3		2
9	6	Arizona State	-29.341			10	2		9
10	33	North Carolina	-27.785			11	2		41
11	43	Iowa	-26.031			11	2		65
12	41	Houston	-24.819			11	1		101
13	40	Washington State	-24.526			8	4		8
14	29	Mississippi State	-23.961			10	2		80
15	15	South Carolina	-23.475			10	3		32
16	17	USC	-23.421			8	4		11
17	25	Brigham Young	-21.821			10	2		44
18	30	Miami (FL)	-20.726			9	3		19
19	10	Ohio State	-20.549			9	3		27
20	18	Georgia	-20.506			9	3		37
21	69	Maryland	-20.48			9	3		25
22	26	Utah	-20.056			6	6		7
23	42	Bowling Green	-18.755			12	1		115
24	32	Oregon State	-18.399			7	5		12
25	35	Texas	-17.318			8	4		20
26	31	Kansas State	-16.339			8	4		35
27	28	Ole Miss	-15.511			8	4		17
28	54	Tennessee	-14.609			8	4		28
29	39	Boise State	-14.58			10	3		59
30	37	Duke	-14.191			8	4		66
31	8	Missouri	-13.969			9	3		60
32	14	Wisconsin	-13.389			9	3		58
33	72	Louisiana-Lafayette	-13.22			10	2		117
34	13	Oklahoma State	-13.1			7	5		23
35	38	Virginia Tech	-12.636			8	4		57
36	45	Marshall	-10.98			12	1		128
37	51	Navy	-10.844			10	2		87
38	55	TCU	-10.675			8	4		46
39	7	Washington	-10.576			7	6		21
40	52	Pittsburgh	-10.281			7	5		36
41	24	Louisville	-9.4603			8	4		84
42	53	Nebraska	-9.0258			7	5		33
43	63	Penn State	-8.9325			7	5		45
44	93	Memphis	-8.8038			8	4		76
45	107	Army	-8.6699			9	3		95
46	86	Virginia	-8.3483			4	8		5
47	49	East Carolina	-8.0588			8	4		77
48	64	Syracuse	-7.9426			8	4		67
49	20	Georgia Tech	-7.9247			6	6		30
50	44	Texas Tech	-7.3359			7	5		39
51	27	Utah State	-7.2728			9	4		93
52	60	Minnesota	-7.1439			7	5		48
53	46	Michigan	-6.8343			6	6		34
54	21	Oklahoma	-6.7044			6	6		38
55	47	Florida	-6.6786			7	5		47
56	82	Arkansas	-5.926			5	7		24
57	105	Connecticut	-5.54			7	5		72
58	12	Clemson	-5.318			7	5		61
59	67	Northwestern	-5.2868			7	5		55
60	108	Akron	-4.7878			8	4		108
61	59	Cincinnati	-3.5719			6	6		62
62	85	Nevada	-3.2731			8	5		74
63	56	Northern Illinois	-2.9683			10	3		118
64	91	Iowa State	-2.8011			5	7		26
65	22	Texas A&M	-2.2577			6	6		29
66	34	UCF	-1.6331			6	6		75
67	94	Rutgers	-1.6304			4	8		13
68	66	Colorado State	-1.578			8	4		112
69	79	Colorado	-1.0588			4	8		10
70	68	Western Kentucky	-0.4726			7	5		88
71	19	Arizona	0.16451			4	8		6
72	74	South Alabama	0.16593			7	5		89
73	75	Florida Atlantic	0.50266			8	4		105
74	111	Central Michigan	1.17009			9	3		124
75	50	Fresno State	1.43451			6	6		78
76	97	Temple	2.46066			5	7		64
77	112	Purdue	2.501			5	7		63
78	99	California	2.69805			2	10		3
79	80	UTSA	3.15439			7	6		97
80	78	Tulane	3.21642			5	7		52
81	110	New Mexico	3.91878			6	6		94
82	57	Indiana	4.814			3	9		16
83	36	Notre Dame	4.83516			2	10		4
84	88	West Virginia	4.91057			3	9		14
85	106	Texas State	5.31239			9	3		127
86	101	Kent State	5.91744			5	7		83
87	16	LSU	6.52336			4	8		42
88	65	Ball State	7.91355			6	6		90
89	81	Middle Tennessee	8.01945			6	6		109
90	48	Vanderbilt	8.10352			4	8		50
91	83	Kentucky	8.73604			4	8		54
92	77	San Jose State	8.97394			4	8		70
93	92	San Diego State	9.99748			5	7		81
94	113	Louisiana Tech	10.1942			6	6		104
95	114	Air Force	10.2012			4	8		86
96	70	Toledo	10.2141			5	7		91
97	62	Arkansas State	11.2378			6	6		107
98	100	Hawaii	11.8799			4	9		85
99	71	Rice	11.9024			6	6		106
100	87	Troy	12.0606			7	5		121
101	90	North Carolina State	12.9032			5	7		82
102	84	Illinois	13.6395			2	10		31
103	109	South Florida	14.6878			3	9		71
104	58	North Texas	14.8962			6	6		125
105	89	UNLV	15.0719			3	10		69
106	76	Buffalo	15.5466			5	7		100
107	98	Louisiana-Monroe	15.9459			5	7		119
108		Appalachian State	16.1273			6	6		126
109	104	Kansas	18.9447			1	11		18
110	118	UTEP	19.014			4	8		113
111		Georgia Southern	19.273			4	8		120
112		Old Dominion	19.9359			4	8		116
113	73	Wake Forest	22.2984			2	10		49
114	116	Western Michigan	22.4822			3	9		111
115	119	Massachusetts	22.5638			3	9		99
116	125	Florida International	22.6064			3	9		114
117	123	Miami (OH)	22.6786			3	9		103
118	102	Wyoming	22.8144			1	11		43
119	124	Eastern Michigan	22.9376			2	10		92
120	95	Southern Methodist	23.1744			1	11		40
121	61	Boston College	25.3535			1	11		56
122	117	Georgia State	29.4433			2	10		110
123	120	Idaho	29.8678			2	10		123
124	96	Ohio	30.4982			2	10		102
125	103	Tulsa	31.2688			1	11		68
126	115	UAB	31.9066			2	10		98
127	122	Southern Miss	34.6062			1	11		96
128	121	New Mexico State	35.192			1	11		122

As usual, the Pac 12 is dominating the Strength of Schedule rankings, due to a 9-game conference schedule and a large number of quality teams, a combination no other conference can claim. For that reason, the conference has 4 of the top 10 teams and 8 of the top 25, including the #1 overall team, Oregon, who is projected to lose twice, with a schedule that includes Michigan State, Stanford, and UCLA, plus a potential rematch with UCLA in the Pac 12 title game, which would mean 4 games against the top 8 teams. If any Pac 12 team finishes undefeated, they should be the automatic top seed in the first college football playoff.

The only team projected to finish undefeated is Baylor, the class of the Big 12, which is returning a large portion of a team that finished 11-2 last season, with both losses to teams in the top 11. They will be helped along this season by a weak schedule, ranked in the bottom half of the nation, including only one opponent in my preseason top 25, #25 Texas. The Bears must finish undefeated to have a shot at the playoffs.

Last year's champions, the Florida State Seminoles, look to be in the running again this year, with the bulk of their lineup returning, a schedule that includes a load of cupcakes, and the confidence and momentum that comes from winning a championship decisively. Their only real test in the regular season will be a trip to Miami in mid-November, and they will also have to navigate the ACC title game, a hurdle Baylor will not have to face.

This year's SEC title should once again come down to the result of the Iron Bowl, where Auburn will be visiting Alabama in the rematch of one of the most exciting finishes in college football history. The Tigers look like the better team right now, but the Crimson Tide will have home field advantage in the rivalry game, so they are my pick to take the 4th and final spot in the playoff.

I will update my rankings weekly throughout the season, usually on the day after the week's final game has been played, and I will also post my predictions for each week's games before the week's slate of games begins. Last season I correctly predicted the winner in 77.5% of college football games, up 2% from the previous season, and I hope to top that number this season.