NBA Rankings - 13 Apr

There are only 2 or three games left for each team, but only one team knows where it will be seeded once the playoffs begin, meaning that there will still be a lot of meaningful games over the next few days, especially since there is still a playoff spot available, and an injury to Kobe Bryant has added a new twist to that drama as well. Here are my current rankings, with teams grouped by similar level of performance and projected finish and seeding included as well.

TW. (LW) Team (Week) Overall (Projected) Seed (Change)
1. (1) Oklahoma City (3-1) 59-21 (61-21) 1W

2. (2) Miami (4-0) 63-16 (66-16) 1E (+1)

3. (3) San Antonio (2-1) 58-21 (60-22) 2W
4. (4) LA Clippers (3-0) 53-26 (55-27) 4W (+1)
5. (5) Denver (2-1) 54-25 (56-26) 3W

6. (6) Memphis (3-0) 54-25 (56-26) 5W (+1)
7. (9) New York (3-1) 52-27 (54-28) 2E (+1)
8. (8) Houston (1-2) 44-35 (46-36) 6W (-1)
9. (7) Indiana (1-2) 49-30 (51-31) 3E (-1)

10. (10) Brooklyn (4-0) 47-32 (49-33) 4E (+1)

11. (12) Golden State (1-3) 45-35 (46-36) 7W (-1)
12. (11) LA Lakers (3-1) 43-37 (44-38) 8W (+1)

13. (13) Utah (2-1) 42-38 (43-39) 9W (+1)
14. (16) Atlanta (2-1) 44-36 (45-37) 5E (+1)
15. (14) Dallas (2-1) 39-40 (41-41) 10W (+1)

16. (15) Chicago (1-3) 43-36 (44-38) 6E (-2)
17. (17) Boston (1-2) 40-39 (41-41) 7E (-1)
18. (18) Minnesota (1-3) 29-50 (30-52) 12W (-1)

19. (20) Milwaukee (1-3) 37-42 (38-44) 8E (-1)
20. (21) Washington (1-4) 29-51 (30-52) 11E (-1)
21. (19) Portland (0-3) 33-46 (34-48) 11W (-1)
22. (22) Sacramento (1-2) 28-51 (29-53) 13W
23. (24) New Orleans (1-3) 27-53 (28-54) 14W
24. (25) Toronto (2-1) 31-48 (32-50) 10E (+1)
25. (23) Philadelphia (1-3) 32-47 (33-49) 9E (-1)

26. (27) Detroit (3-1) 28-52 (29-53) 12E (+2)
27. (26) Cleveland (1-3) 24-55 (25-57) 13E (-1)

28. (29) Orlando (1-1) 20-59 (21-61) 14E
29. (28) Phoenix (1-2) 24-55 (25-57) 15W (+1)

30. (30) Charlotte (0-3) 18-61 (19-63) 15E

Playoff Tiebreaker Scenarios

Eastern Conference

Miami is locked into the #1 seed, and has been for weeks. This is the only spot with no drama.

New York/Indiana - Indiana owns the tiebreaker between these two teams, but in order to take advantage of it, they will have to win their final three games, including road games at New York and Boston, and the Knicks would have to lose all three, including a game at Charlotte. The Knicks are nearly a guarantee to be #2.

Indiana/Brooklyn - The Nets own the tiebreaker over the Pacers, and they could actually use it. Their final three games are all against teams that will miss the playoffs, while the Pacers play two road games against playoff teams. Indiana's 2-game lead could easily evaporate and drop them into a second-round matchup with Miami.

Atlanta/Chicago - Chicago owns the tiebreaker over Atlanta, and with each team playing a tough road game (Atlanta at New York and Chicago at Miami), this could happen. The Bulls have been horrible lately, except in that upset win against New York, which came out of nowhere, so they could lose against either Orlando or Washington and end up stuck in 6th.

Chicago/Boston - Chicago owns the tiebreaker between these two, so Boston can't pass Chicago even if they win out and Chicago loses the rest and the teams end up tied.

Boston/Milwaukee - Milwaukee has the tiebreaker here, but they would have to win all three of their remaining games, which would require beating Denver and Oklahoma City. With how bad the Bucks have been all year, this is highly unlikely.

Western Conference

Oklahoma City/San Antonio - The Thunder have the tiebreaker over San Antonio, and only two home games remaining, against Sacramento and Milwaukee, and they would have to lose one of them for the Spurs to have a chance at the top seed. Even then, the Spurs would have to beat both Golden State and the Lakers on the road and Minnesota at home, or hope that Oklahoma City blows two easy home wins.

Denver/LA Clippers - If these two end up tied, the Clippers would get the higher seed even though Denver won the season series, thanks to LA winning the Pacific Division, which is the first tiebreaking criterion. It is possible for Memphis to finish in third by itself and thus knock Denver to #5 by losing this tiebreaker.

Denver/Memphis - Denver has the tiebreaker over Memphis, which is why they are currently in third despite having the same record as the Grizzlies. If they end up tied, Memphis will be the #5 seed, because neither can win its division, and only one non-division-winner can get a top 4 seed.

LA Clippers/Memphis -  LA wins this tiebreaker because they won their division, although it is interesting to note that in the case that the #5 team has a better record than the #4 seeded Clippers, the home-court advantage goes to the team with the better record, not the higher seed. The Clippers get home court in a tie due to their division title.

Denver/Memphis/LA Clippers - The Clippers would get the #3 seed in a 3-way tie due to their division title, which would leave the other two in a 2-way tie, which would still be won by Denver.

Golden State/Houston - Houston owns the tiebreaker between these two, and it is very likely that the two will finish with the same record, so Houston has an excellent shot at the #6 spot and avoiding the Spurs in the first round.

Golden State/LA Lakers - The Lakers also have the tiebreaker over the Warriors, so the Lakers, who have yet to clinch a playoff berth, could conceivably finish as high as #6 with only 2 games left. Unfortunately, they have to play both San Antonio and Houston, both of which have something to play for, with Kobe Bryant out due to his Achilles injury last night.

Golden State/Houston/LA Lakers - If these three all finish with the same record, which would require Golden State to lose its last two, LA to win its last two, and Houston to beat either Sacramento or Phoenix and lose to the other, LA would get the #6 seed by finishing with the same record as Houston among the three, knocking Golden State to #8, then taking the tiebreaker over Houston due to having a better conference record.

Houston/LA Lakers - Right now, Houston has the lead in the season series 2-1, but the two teams face each other to finish the season, which means that LA owns the tiebreaker. If the Lakers win that game, they would win the tiebreaker due to a better conference record, but if the Rockets win that game, the two can't end up tied, so Houston would finish ahead.

Houston/LA Lakers/Utah - For this to happen, Utah would have to win its final two game, Houston would have to lose all three, and the Lakers would have to lose to San Antonio, so this scenario is actually possible, although Houston plays both Sacramento and Phoenix, so losing three would be tough to do. In this case, Houston would get the #6 seed due to a 5-3 record against the other two, and Utah would be #8 by beating LA 2-1 in the season series.

Houston/Utah - Although these two teams can mathematically end up tied, it would require the Lakers to be either included in the tie, which is a situation already detailed above, or for the Lakers to finish ahead of both, in which case Utah would be left out because Houston won the season series.

LA Lakers/Utah - Utah owns the tiebreaker as stated above, but they need LA to lose at least once, and hopefully twice, and they must beat one of their final two opponents and probably both in order for this to happen.

The numbers are saying that Utah will miss the playoffs, but there is no way to account for the injury to Kobe Bryant, so who knows how things will turn out. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.