We're one week into the NBA Playoffs, and 3 teams are already on the brink of elimination, while 2 underdogs have taken 2-1 leads into game 4, which will be played on the home court of the underdog. 2 more teams are looking to go up 3-0 today, while Memphis and the Clippers have been the only teams to hold serve at home for their series. Here are each team's updated odds of advancing in the playoffs, with percentage change in parentheses.
Odds of Winning First Round
Miami - 99.9% (+3.7)
New York - 99.1% (+15.0)
San Antonio - 98.9% (+22.6)
Oklahoma City - 95.5% (+11.1)
Indiana - 91.5% (+15.8)
LA Clippers - 78.1% (+13.1)
Chicago - 61.4% (+30.4)
Golden State - 55.9% (+34.8)
Odds of Making Conference Finals
Miami - 88.8% (+6.8)
Oklahoma City - 70.0% (+8.2)
San Antonio - 67.5% (+26.7)
New York - 63.5% (+8.9)
Indiana - 34.9% (-0.2)
LA Clippers - 24.4% (+0.6)
Denver - 18.3% (-28.1)
Golden State - 13.8% (+6.9)
Brooklyn - 5.9% (-7.9)
Chicago - 5.3% (+2.1)
Memphis - 4.4% (-4.9)
Atlanta - 1.4% (-4.8)
Houston - 1.3% (-3.8)
Odds of Making NBA Finals
Miami - 63.3% (+2.5)
Oklahoma City - 53.3% (+6.2)
San Antonio - 23.7% (+9.9)
New York - 23.4% (+2.8)
LA Clippers - 13.2% (+0.0)
Indiana - 10.2% (-1.1)
Denver - 5.5% (-12.5)
Golden State - 2.0% (+1.0)
Memphis - 1.78% (-2.3)
Brooklyn - 1.77% (-3.4)
Chicago - 1.1%
Odds of Winning Championship
Oklahoma City - 36.1% (+3.4)
Miami - 32.2% (+0.6)
San Antonio - 11.5% (+5.1)
New York - 7.1% (+0.9)
LA Clippers - 6.7% (-0.4)
Denver - 2.4% (-6.9)
Indiana - 2.3% (-0.5)
The hottest team over the first week of the playoffs has been the San Antonio Spurs, who have been in complete control of their series against the Lakers, and have therefore had the largest increase in odds of advancing through each round. The coldest team has been the Nuggets, who I predicted would take care of Golden State in 5 games, but is down 2-1 at this point, with their only win coming on a last-second layup by Andre Miller. The Nuggets are not out of it, and they actually have the best chance of overcoming a series deficit right now, but they will need to win at least once on the road to do it. On a final note, these odds can not take injuries into account, because the impact of a player sitting out can't be known until the team plays. Golden State has gone 2-0 since David Lee went down, and Indiana and New York have yet to lose despite injuries to important players. We won't know how Russell Westbrook's injury will impact the Thunder until we see them play without him.
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