NBA Playoff Odds - 27 Apr

We're one week into the NBA Playoffs, and 3 teams are already on the brink of elimination, while 2 underdogs have taken 2-1 leads into game 4, which will be played on the home court of the underdog. 2 more teams are looking to go up 3-0 today, while Memphis and the Clippers have been the only teams to hold serve at home for their series. Here are each team's updated odds of advancing in the playoffs, with percentage change in parentheses.

Odds of Winning First Round

Miami - 99.9% (+3.7)
New York - 99.1% (+15.0)
San Antonio - 98.9% (+22.6)
Oklahoma City - 95.5% (+11.1)
Indiana - 91.5% (+15.8)
LA Clippers - 78.1% (+13.1)
Chicago - 61.4% (+30.4)
Golden State - 55.9% (+34.8)

Odds of Making Conference Finals

Miami - 88.8% (+6.8)
Oklahoma City - 70.0% (+8.2)
San Antonio - 67.5% (+26.7)
New York - 63.5% (+8.9)
Indiana - 34.9% (-0.2)
LA Clippers - 24.4% (+0.6)
Denver - 18.3% (-28.1)
Golden State - 13.8% (+6.9)
Brooklyn - 5.9% (-7.9)
Chicago - 5.3% (+2.1)
Memphis - 4.4% (-4.9)
Atlanta - 1.4% (-4.8)
Houston - 1.3% (-3.8)

Odds of Making NBA Finals

Miami - 63.3% (+2.5)
Oklahoma City - 53.3% (+6.2)
San Antonio - 23.7% (+9.9)
New York - 23.4% (+2.8)
LA Clippers - 13.2% (+0.0)
Indiana - 10.2% (-1.1)
Denver - 5.5% (-12.5)
Golden State - 2.0% (+1.0)
Memphis - 1.78% (-2.3)
Brooklyn - 1.77% (-3.4)
Chicago - 1.1%

Odds of Winning Championship

Oklahoma City - 36.1% (+3.4)
Miami - 32.2% (+0.6)
San Antonio - 11.5% (+5.1)
New York - 7.1% (+0.9)
LA Clippers - 6.7% (-0.4)
Denver - 2.4% (-6.9)
Indiana - 2.3% (-0.5)

The hottest team over the first week of the playoffs has been the San Antonio Spurs, who have been in complete control of their series against the Lakers, and have therefore had the largest increase in odds of advancing through each round. The coldest team has been the Nuggets, who I predicted would take care of Golden State in 5 games, but is down 2-1 at this point, with their only win coming on a last-second layup by Andre Miller. The Nuggets are not out of it, and they actually have the best chance of overcoming a series deficit right now, but they will need to win at least once on the road to do it. On a final note, these odds can not take injuries into account, because the impact of a player sitting out can't be known until the team plays. Golden State has gone 2-0 since David Lee went down, and Indiana and New York have yet to lose despite injuries to important players. We won't know how Russell Westbrook's injury will impact the Thunder until we see them play without him.

NBA Playoff Predictions

The NBA Playoffs start today, with 16 teams vying for the title of NBA Champion. While there may technically be 16 teams still alive, how many of those teams have a realistic chance of winning the title, and how many actually have a good chance? I've crunched the numbers for every game for the entire season, factoring in home court advantage, strength of schedule, and momentum, then figured out the odds of any potential matchup and series length to determine which teams you should be watching for this year. In general, the favorites should do pretty well, but there could be some surprises. Here are my odds for each team advancing and my predictions for which teams will win each series:

Odds of Winning First Round

(1) Miami over (8) Milwaukee - 96.2%
(1) Oklahoma City over (8) Houston - 84.4%
(2) New York over (7) Boston - 84.1%
(3) Denver over (6) Golden State - 78.9%
(2) San Antonio over (7) LA Lakers - 76.3%
(3) Indiana over (6) Atlanta - 75.7%
(4) Brooklyn over (5) Chicago - 69.0%
(4) LA Clippers over (5) Memphis - 65.0%

Odds of Making Conference Finals

Miami - 82.0%
Oklahoma City - 61.8%
New York - 54.6%
Denver - 46.4%
San Antonio - 40.8%
Indiana - 35.1%
LA Clippers - 23.8%
Brooklyn - 13.8%
Memphis - 9.3%
Golden State - 6.9%
Atlanta - 6.2%
LA Lakers - 5.8%
Houston - 5.1%
Boston - 4.1%
Chicago - 3.2%
Milwaukee - 1.0%

Odds of Making NBA Finals

Miami - 60.8%
Oklahoma City - 47.1%
New York - 20.6%
Denver - 18.0%
San Antonio - 13.8%
LA Clippers - 13.2%
Indiana - 11.3%
Brooklyn - 5.2%
Memphis - 4.1%
Houston - 1.9%
Golden State - 1.0%

Odds of Winning Championship

Oklahoma City - 32.7%
Miami - 31.6%
Denver - 9.3%
LA Clippers - 7.1%
San Antonio - 6.4%
New York - 6.2%
Indiana - 2.8%
Memphis - 1.7%

Odds of Various Finals Matchups

2 Former ROY's - 61.6%
2 Scoring Leaders - 50.2%
2012 rematch (Heat vs. Thunder) - 28.6%
2 Former Sixth Men of the Year - 18.2%
2 Former Finals MVP's - 17.0%
2 Former MVP's - 9.1%
2 Teams with no championships (Nets or Pacers vs. Clippers, Grizzlies or Nuggets) - 5.8%
2 Former MIP's - 3.1%
2 Lower Seeds - 0.2%
2 Former DPOY's - 0.2%
2 Teams that Missed 2012 Playoffs - 0.2%
2010 rematch (Lakers vs. Celtics) (AKA Rebounding Leaders) - 0.004%

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.
Regular season results in parentheses.

First Round

Heat over Bucks in 4 (Heat 3-1)
Knicks over Celtics in 5 (Knicks 3-1)
Pacers over Hawks in 5 (Tied 2-2)
Nets over Bulls in 6 (Chicago 3-1)

Thunder over Rockets in 5 (Thunder 2-1)
Spurs over Lakers in 5 (Spurs 2-1)
Nuggets over Warriors in 5 (Nuggets 3-1)
Clippers over Grizzlies in 6 (Clippers 3-1)

Second Round

Heat over Nets in 5 (Heat 3-0)
Knicks over Pacers in 7 (Tied 2-2)
Thunder over Clippers in 6 (Thunder 3-0)
Nuggets over Spurs in 7 (Tied 2-2)

Conference Finals

Heat over Knicks in 6 (Knicks 3-1)
Thunder over Nuggets in 6 (Nuggets 3-1)

NBA Finals

Thunder over Heat in 7 (Heat 2-0)

There you go. It looks very likely that we will see a rematch of last season's Finals, which has happened 12 times previously in 66 seasons, but only once in the last 23 years, when Utah and Chicago met in 1997 and 1998. I plan to update my odds again after each team has played its first 2 games, so watch for that next week and see what changes come with those results.

NBA Rankings - 13 Apr

There are only 2 or three games left for each team, but only one team knows where it will be seeded once the playoffs begin, meaning that there will still be a lot of meaningful games over the next few days, especially since there is still a playoff spot available, and an injury to Kobe Bryant has added a new twist to that drama as well. Here are my current rankings, with teams grouped by similar level of performance and projected finish and seeding included as well.

TW. (LW) Team (Week) Overall (Projected) Seed (Change)
1. (1) Oklahoma City (3-1) 59-21 (61-21) 1W

2. (2) Miami (4-0) 63-16 (66-16) 1E (+1)

3. (3) San Antonio (2-1) 58-21 (60-22) 2W
4. (4) LA Clippers (3-0) 53-26 (55-27) 4W (+1)
5. (5) Denver (2-1) 54-25 (56-26) 3W

6. (6) Memphis (3-0) 54-25 (56-26) 5W (+1)
7. (9) New York (3-1) 52-27 (54-28) 2E (+1)
8. (8) Houston (1-2) 44-35 (46-36) 6W (-1)
9. (7) Indiana (1-2) 49-30 (51-31) 3E (-1)

10. (10) Brooklyn (4-0) 47-32 (49-33) 4E (+1)

11. (12) Golden State (1-3) 45-35 (46-36) 7W (-1)
12. (11) LA Lakers (3-1) 43-37 (44-38) 8W (+1)

13. (13) Utah (2-1) 42-38 (43-39) 9W (+1)
14. (16) Atlanta (2-1) 44-36 (45-37) 5E (+1)
15. (14) Dallas (2-1) 39-40 (41-41) 10W (+1)

16. (15) Chicago (1-3) 43-36 (44-38) 6E (-2)
17. (17) Boston (1-2) 40-39 (41-41) 7E (-1)
18. (18) Minnesota (1-3) 29-50 (30-52) 12W (-1)

19. (20) Milwaukee (1-3) 37-42 (38-44) 8E (-1)
20. (21) Washington (1-4) 29-51 (30-52) 11E (-1)
21. (19) Portland (0-3) 33-46 (34-48) 11W (-1)
22. (22) Sacramento (1-2) 28-51 (29-53) 13W
23. (24) New Orleans (1-3) 27-53 (28-54) 14W
24. (25) Toronto (2-1) 31-48 (32-50) 10E (+1)
25. (23) Philadelphia (1-3) 32-47 (33-49) 9E (-1)

26. (27) Detroit (3-1) 28-52 (29-53) 12E (+2)
27. (26) Cleveland (1-3) 24-55 (25-57) 13E (-1)

28. (29) Orlando (1-1) 20-59 (21-61) 14E
29. (28) Phoenix (1-2) 24-55 (25-57) 15W (+1)

30. (30) Charlotte (0-3) 18-61 (19-63) 15E

Playoff Tiebreaker Scenarios

Eastern Conference

Miami is locked into the #1 seed, and has been for weeks. This is the only spot with no drama.

New York/Indiana - Indiana owns the tiebreaker between these two teams, but in order to take advantage of it, they will have to win their final three games, including road games at New York and Boston, and the Knicks would have to lose all three, including a game at Charlotte. The Knicks are nearly a guarantee to be #2.

Indiana/Brooklyn - The Nets own the tiebreaker over the Pacers, and they could actually use it. Their final three games are all against teams that will miss the playoffs, while the Pacers play two road games against playoff teams. Indiana's 2-game lead could easily evaporate and drop them into a second-round matchup with Miami.

Atlanta/Chicago - Chicago owns the tiebreaker over Atlanta, and with each team playing a tough road game (Atlanta at New York and Chicago at Miami), this could happen. The Bulls have been horrible lately, except in that upset win against New York, which came out of nowhere, so they could lose against either Orlando or Washington and end up stuck in 6th.

Chicago/Boston - Chicago owns the tiebreaker between these two, so Boston can't pass Chicago even if they win out and Chicago loses the rest and the teams end up tied.

Boston/Milwaukee - Milwaukee has the tiebreaker here, but they would have to win all three of their remaining games, which would require beating Denver and Oklahoma City. With how bad the Bucks have been all year, this is highly unlikely.

Western Conference

Oklahoma City/San Antonio - The Thunder have the tiebreaker over San Antonio, and only two home games remaining, against Sacramento and Milwaukee, and they would have to lose one of them for the Spurs to have a chance at the top seed. Even then, the Spurs would have to beat both Golden State and the Lakers on the road and Minnesota at home, or hope that Oklahoma City blows two easy home wins.

Denver/LA Clippers - If these two end up tied, the Clippers would get the higher seed even though Denver won the season series, thanks to LA winning the Pacific Division, which is the first tiebreaking criterion. It is possible for Memphis to finish in third by itself and thus knock Denver to #5 by losing this tiebreaker.

Denver/Memphis - Denver has the tiebreaker over Memphis, which is why they are currently in third despite having the same record as the Grizzlies. If they end up tied, Memphis will be the #5 seed, because neither can win its division, and only one non-division-winner can get a top 4 seed.

LA Clippers/Memphis -  LA wins this tiebreaker because they won their division, although it is interesting to note that in the case that the #5 team has a better record than the #4 seeded Clippers, the home-court advantage goes to the team with the better record, not the higher seed. The Clippers get home court in a tie due to their division title.

Denver/Memphis/LA Clippers - The Clippers would get the #3 seed in a 3-way tie due to their division title, which would leave the other two in a 2-way tie, which would still be won by Denver.

Golden State/Houston - Houston owns the tiebreaker between these two, and it is very likely that the two will finish with the same record, so Houston has an excellent shot at the #6 spot and avoiding the Spurs in the first round.

Golden State/LA Lakers - The Lakers also have the tiebreaker over the Warriors, so the Lakers, who have yet to clinch a playoff berth, could conceivably finish as high as #6 with only 2 games left. Unfortunately, they have to play both San Antonio and Houston, both of which have something to play for, with Kobe Bryant out due to his Achilles injury last night.

Golden State/Houston/LA Lakers - If these three all finish with the same record, which would require Golden State to lose its last two, LA to win its last two, and Houston to beat either Sacramento or Phoenix and lose to the other, LA would get the #6 seed by finishing with the same record as Houston among the three, knocking Golden State to #8, then taking the tiebreaker over Houston due to having a better conference record.

Houston/LA Lakers - Right now, Houston has the lead in the season series 2-1, but the two teams face each other to finish the season, which means that LA owns the tiebreaker. If the Lakers win that game, they would win the tiebreaker due to a better conference record, but if the Rockets win that game, the two can't end up tied, so Houston would finish ahead.

Houston/LA Lakers/Utah - For this to happen, Utah would have to win its final two game, Houston would have to lose all three, and the Lakers would have to lose to San Antonio, so this scenario is actually possible, although Houston plays both Sacramento and Phoenix, so losing three would be tough to do. In this case, Houston would get the #6 seed due to a 5-3 record against the other two, and Utah would be #8 by beating LA 2-1 in the season series.

Houston/Utah - Although these two teams can mathematically end up tied, it would require the Lakers to be either included in the tie, which is a situation already detailed above, or for the Lakers to finish ahead of both, in which case Utah would be left out because Houston won the season series.

LA Lakers/Utah - Utah owns the tiebreaker as stated above, but they need LA to lose at least once, and hopefully twice, and they must beat one of their final two opponents and probably both in order for this to happen.

The numbers are saying that Utah will miss the playoffs, but there is no way to account for the injury to Kobe Bryant, so who knows how things will turn out. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

NBA Rankings - 6 Apr

We're down to the final week and a half of the regular season, and there are only 7 teams still alive for the final 4 playoff spots, since Portland was eliminated this week. The race for #8 in the West is very intriguing, with Utah and LA switching spots every few days, and Dallas still hanging in and hoping for a miracle. The Clippers will clinch the Pacific Division with their next win or Golden State's next loss, and with it a guaranteed #4 spot (or higher) in the playoffs. Here are my current rankings, with teams grouped by similar level of performance and projected record, seed, and change since last week included after current record.

TW. (LW) Team (Week) Overall (Projected) Seed (Change)
1. (1) Oklahoma City (3-0) 56-20 (61-21) 1W (+1)

2. (2) Miami (2-1) 59-16 (65-17) 1E
3. (3) San Antonio (1-3) 56-20 (60-22) 2W (-2)
4. (4) LA Clippers (1-2) 50-26 (54-28) 4W (-1)
5. (5) Denver (2-0) 52-24 (56-26) 3W

6. (7) Memphis (3-1) 51-25 (55-27) 5W (+1)
7. (6) Indiana (2-1) 48-28 (52-30) 3E
8. (8) Houston (4-0) 43-33 (47-35) 6W (+2)
9. (9) New York (4-0) 49-26 (53-29) 2E (+2)

10. (10) Brooklyn (1-2) 43-32 (48-34) 4E
11. (11) LA Lakers (3-0) 40-36 (43-39) 8W (+1)
12. (12) Golden State (3-0) 44-32 (47-35) 7W (+1)

13. (16) Utah (3-1) 40-37 (42-40) 9W (+1)
14. (17) Dallas (2-2) 37-39 (40-42) 10W
15. (15) Chicago (3-2) 42-33 (46-36) 5E
16. (14) Atlanta (2-2) 42-35 (44-38) 6E (-1)
17. (13) Boston (1-3) 39-37 (42-40) 7E (-1)
18. (19) Minnesota (2-2) 28-47 (31-51) 12W
19. (18) Portland (0-4) 33-43 (35-47) 11W (-2)
20. (20) Milwaukee (1-3) 36-39 (39-43) 8E (-1)
21. (21) Washington (2-1) 28-47 (31-51) 11E (+1)

22. (22) Sacramento (0-3) 27-49 (29-53) 13W (-1)
23. (24) Philadelphia (2-1) 31-44 (34-48) 9E (+1)
24. (25) New Orleans (1-2) 26-50 (28-54) 14W
25. (23) Toronto (2-2) 29-47 (31-51) 10E

26. (26) Cleveland (1-3) 23-52 (26-56) 13E

27. (28) Detroit (1-2) 25-51 (27-55) 12E

28. (27) Phoenix (0-3) 23-53 (24-58) 15W (-1)
29. (29) Orlando (0-4) 19-58 (21-61) 14E

30. (30) Charlotte (1-3) 18-58 (19-63) 15E

The hottest team in the league for the second straight week is New York, which has extended its winning streak to 11 with 4 of those coming this week. Last week it was JR Smith leading the way, and this week it's been Carmelo Anthony, who has reached 40 points or more in 3 straight games, including 50 points in a road win over the mighty Miami Heat, giving them the season series win 3-1, and setting up an interesting potential Eastern Conference Finals showdown.

Detroit has been playing better as of late, even though it is meaningless at this point. They played their last 3 games on the road, winning at Toronto and nearly beating both Chicago and Boston, who will be participating in this year's playoffs. Greg Monroe has been a bright spot all season, and has been especially good lately, scoring 24 in each of the last 2 games and grabbing at least 10 rebounds in 5 of the last 7 games.

Orlando may not have won this week, but they played 4 road games against playoff teams, and kept 3 of those games to single-digit losses, including a 1-point loss at Chicago last night. No matter how they finish the season, the Magic have a pretty good shot at the top pick in the draft, since they are almost guaranteed to finish with the second-worst record in the league.

Golden State had a perfect week, winning all three of its games, and it came at a good time for the Warriors, because the Rockets, with whom they are jockeying for the #6 seed, were equally hot this week. Although I had Golden State ahead of Houston a week ago, I now project both teams to finish at 47-35, and since Houston has won the season series, that would leave the Warriors to face San Antonio in the first round, instead of the much more desirable Denver Nuggets.