Out of 16 NFL games last week, 10 of them ended with the underdog winning, starting with the Giants on Thursday night and finishing up with the Seahawks upsetting Green Bay on Monday night. All of those upsets equal a huge shift in the rankings, with #1 Houston among the few teams that didn't see a huge rise or drop. Here are the updated rankings, with ESPN's Power Rankings in parentheses.
TW. (LW) Team (Record) Result (ESPN)
1. (1) Houston (3-0) W (1)
2. (9) Atlanta (3-0) W (2)
3. (6) Denver (1-2) L (14)
4. (4) Arizona (3-0) W (5)
5. (2) Seattle (2-1) W (10)
6. (7) Pittsburgh (1-2) L (16)
7. (10) New England (1-2) L (8)
8. (18) NY Jets (2-1) W (17)
9. (13) Miami (1-2) L (29)
10. (5) Baltimore (2-1) W (3)
11. (11) Green Bay (1-2) L (7)
12. (16) San Diego (2-1) L (13)
13. (24) Jacksonville (1-2) W (30)
14. (19) Chicago (2-1) W (11)
15. (3) San Francisco (2-1) L (4)
16. (28) Minnesota (2-1) W (21)
17. (26) Buffalo (2-1) W (19)
18. (14) Philadelphia (2-1) L (9)
19. (17) Dallas (2-1) W (12)
20. (20) NY Giants (2-1) W (6)
21. (29) Oakland (1-2) W (27)
22. (30) Indianapolis (1-2) L (31)
23. (22) Tampa Bay (1-2) L (20)
24. (8) Detroit (1-2) L (18)
25. (31) Kansas City (1-2) W (26)
26. (25) Cincinnati (2-1) W (15)
27. (21) Cleveland (0-3) L (32)
28. (12) Saint Louis (1-2) L (25)
29. (15) Washington (1-2) L (22)
30. (32) Tennessee (1-2) W (24)
31. (23) Carolina (1-2) L (23)
32. (27) New Orleans (0-3) L (28)
Perhaps the biggest surprise of the weekend was the Minnesota Vikings' victory over the San Francisco 49ers, where Christian Ponder outplayed Alex Smith and put the game away in the fourth quarter with his third touchdown of the day, which came after the 49ers scored twice in the third quarter to pull within 4 points. The two teams, which began the week ranked among the top and bottom 5 teams, are now virtually tied in the middle of the rankings and have the same record.
Denver may have a losing record, but they still find themselves ranked #3 after losing to each of the top 2 teams by 6 points. The Broncos have made a bad habit of falling behind early and then making a furious fourth quarter rally before falling short at the end. The good news is that Peyton Manning is looking better each week, and they play the 1-2 Raiders this weekend, which should allow them to get back to .500.
Washington skyrocketed to the top of the rankings after they defeated New Orleans to open the season, but after losing to Saint Louis and Cincinnati and watching the Saints lose twice more, it is obvious that the Saints were vastly overrated and that the Redskins, while boasting a strong offense led by Robert Griffin III, are about as good as was expected when the season began.
The Detroit Lions have been a big disappointment so far this season, winning in the final seconds against Saint Louis before losing to a good 49ers team and a very weak Titans squad. This weekend, they face the Vikings team that just beat San Francisco, who has already beaten the Redskins, so logic dictates that the Lions will continue their downward spiral.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Thursday
Cleveland at Baltimore - Ravens by 23
Sunday
Carolina at Atlanta - Falcons by 45
New England at Buffalo - Patriots by 6
Minnesota at Detroit - Vikings by 8
San Diego at Kansas City - Chargers by 10
Seattle at Saint Louis - Seahawks by 20
San Francisco at NY Jets - Jets by 12
Tennessee at Houston - Texans by 45
Oakland at Denver - Broncos by 24
Miami at Arizona - Cardinals by 8
Cincinnati at Jacksonville - Jaguars by 15
New Orleans at Green Bay - Packers by 31
Washington at Tampa Bay - Buccaneers by 8
NY Giants at Philadelphia - Eagles by 5
Monday
Chicago at Dallas - Cowboys by 1
Prediction Results
NFL: 7-9 (.438) 27-21 overall (.563)
Upsets: 4-3 (.571) 6-6 overall (.500)
Thursday, September 27, 2012
Wednesday, September 26, 2012
Touchdown, Seattle
The most controversial play since the famous Immaculate Reception in 1972 took place two nights ago, and the vast majority of fans believe that the play was called incorrectly, 87% according to ESPN's SportsNation. The league, however, agreed with the referees' decision on Tuesday morning. While I may be in the minority, I agree with the league's decision, and here are the reasons why:
One of the most controversial parts of the play was the shove by Golden Tate on a Green Bay defender just before he leaped to attempt the catch. The play should have been called as pass interference, but if you look at the history of similar plays in both NFL and college football (I viewed at least a dozen on YouTube), you will see that the same call could have been made during many of the most famous "Hail Mary" plays in history, including the final play of last season's Michigan State-Wisconsin game, where there was an obvious shove in the back by a Michigan State player just before the ball came down in the hands of the Spartans. The only difference is that in this case the offender happened to be the player who ultimately was awarded the touchdown. It is a common practice, whether right or wrong, to overlook pass interference on game-ending Hail Mary plays, which allows the game to be decided by players on the field rather than an official, and this game was a prime example.
It is also widely believed that the final pass was intercepted by M.D. Jennings, but after seeing the replay at least 20 times, I believe the call on the field was correct. Jennings did indeed get his hands on the ball first, while in air, but Tate grabbed onto the ball with both hands before Jennings touched down, and when Tate came down, Jennings was right on top of him, face to face, the ball gripped between the two players. Since both player had simultaneous possession of the football, NFL rules dictate that the tie goes to the offensive player, who in this case was Tate.
After the two players hit the ground, Jennings attempted to wrestle the ball away from Tate by rolling away from him, which provided the first clear look at the football since he had grabbed it from the air, and that view has been used by many as "proof" that the ball was intercepted, since Tate had only one hand on the ball and Jennings had the ball pinned against his chest, but that all happened after the players were down by contact.
There are many cases in which the ball changes hands at the bottom of a pile and the player who ends up with the ball is awarded possession when the pile is broken up, and in this case, the player who came out holding the ball when the referees had pulled all of the players off the pile was Golden Tate, lying flat on his back, holding the ball out for the world to see in his left hand.
There was also the fact that the two officials nearest to the play gave opposite signals while the players were on the ground. While they obviously saw the play differently, the first signal given was of a touchdown, which becomes the official call on the field, which can then be overturned on review if there is irrefutable video evidence that the call is incorrect. Because there was no proof that Jennings ever had sole possession of the football while touching the ground, there was no way that the call on the field could be overturned, so no matter which way you look at it, the play was called correctly.
It is my belief that because of the proliferation of incorrect calls by the replacement referees over the first few weeks of the season and their inconclusive ruling at the end of the game are the reasons that there has been such a huge uproar about the outcome of this game, as well as the relative popularity of the Green Bay Packers as opposed to the Seattle Seahawks. Although I feel that the replacement referees have not been doing as good a job as the regular referees, in this case I believe that they fulfilled their responsibilities correctly.
One of the most controversial parts of the play was the shove by Golden Tate on a Green Bay defender just before he leaped to attempt the catch. The play should have been called as pass interference, but if you look at the history of similar plays in both NFL and college football (I viewed at least a dozen on YouTube), you will see that the same call could have been made during many of the most famous "Hail Mary" plays in history, including the final play of last season's Michigan State-Wisconsin game, where there was an obvious shove in the back by a Michigan State player just before the ball came down in the hands of the Spartans. The only difference is that in this case the offender happened to be the player who ultimately was awarded the touchdown. It is a common practice, whether right or wrong, to overlook pass interference on game-ending Hail Mary plays, which allows the game to be decided by players on the field rather than an official, and this game was a prime example.
It is also widely believed that the final pass was intercepted by M.D. Jennings, but after seeing the replay at least 20 times, I believe the call on the field was correct. Jennings did indeed get his hands on the ball first, while in air, but Tate grabbed onto the ball with both hands before Jennings touched down, and when Tate came down, Jennings was right on top of him, face to face, the ball gripped between the two players. Since both player had simultaneous possession of the football, NFL rules dictate that the tie goes to the offensive player, who in this case was Tate.
After the two players hit the ground, Jennings attempted to wrestle the ball away from Tate by rolling away from him, which provided the first clear look at the football since he had grabbed it from the air, and that view has been used by many as "proof" that the ball was intercepted, since Tate had only one hand on the ball and Jennings had the ball pinned against his chest, but that all happened after the players were down by contact.
There are many cases in which the ball changes hands at the bottom of a pile and the player who ends up with the ball is awarded possession when the pile is broken up, and in this case, the player who came out holding the ball when the referees had pulled all of the players off the pile was Golden Tate, lying flat on his back, holding the ball out for the world to see in his left hand.
There was also the fact that the two officials nearest to the play gave opposite signals while the players were on the ground. While they obviously saw the play differently, the first signal given was of a touchdown, which becomes the official call on the field, which can then be overturned on review if there is irrefutable video evidence that the call is incorrect. Because there was no proof that Jennings ever had sole possession of the football while touching the ground, there was no way that the call on the field could be overturned, so no matter which way you look at it, the play was called correctly.
It is my belief that because of the proliferation of incorrect calls by the replacement referees over the first few weeks of the season and their inconclusive ruling at the end of the game are the reasons that there has been such a huge uproar about the outcome of this game, as well as the relative popularity of the Green Bay Packers as opposed to the Seattle Seahawks. Although I feel that the replacement referees have not been doing as good a job as the regular referees, in this case I believe that they fulfilled their responsibilities correctly.
Tuesday, September 25, 2012
College Football Rankings - 25 Sep
The upsets still aren't rolling freely in college football, with nearly every ranked team winning this week, but there was still plenty of movement in the rankings, thanks to several teams playing far above or below expectations. The teams ranked #2 and #3 in the national rankings are the prime examples, as Oregon destroyed Arizona on Saturday night while LSU struggled to hold on against Auburn. Here are the newly updated rankings, along with my predictions for every game for the coming weekend.
TW. (LW) Team (Record) Result (AP)
1. (16) Oregon (4-0) W (2)
2. (8) Alabama (4-0) W (1)
3. (3) Cincinnati (2-0) BYE (36)
4. (5) Georgia (4-0) W (5)
5. (2) Florida State (4-0) W (4)
6. (4) Kansas State (4-0) W (7)
7. (7) Texas (3-0) BYE (12)
8. (1) LSU (4-0) W (3)
9. (10) Florida (4-0) W (11)
10. (25) South Carolina (4-0) W (6)
11. (NR) Clemson (3-1) L (17)
12. (17) Texas A&M (2-1) W (35)
13. (13) Texas Tech (3-0) BYE (36)
14. (NR) Oklahoma (2-1) L (16)
15. (NR) Stanford (3-0) BYE (8)
16. (NR) Virginia Tech (3-1) W (30)
17. (11) Oklahoma State (2-1) BYE (34)
18. (18) Purdue (2-1) BYE (41)
19. (24) Arizona State (3-1) W (39)
20. (NR) Mississippi State (4-0) W (21)
21. (NR) Notre Dame (4-0) W (10)
22. (NR) Oregon State (2-0) W (18)
23. (20) Middle Tennessee (2-1) BYE (NR)
24. (NR) San Jose State (3-1) W (NR)
25. (NR) Nebraska (3-1) W (22)
Dropped From Rankings
(6) Arizona (3-1) L (31)
(9) Toledo (3-1) W (NR)
(12) West Virginia (3-0) W (9)
(23) UCLA (3-1) L (27)
(21) Tulsa (3-1) W (NR)
(14) Iowa State (3-0) BYE (32)
(19) San Diego State (2-2) L (NR)
(15) Washington (2-1) BYE (NR)
(22) Fresno State (2-2) L (NR)
Ranked Teams by Conference
SEC - 7
Big 12 - 5
Pac 12 - 4
ACC - 3
Big 10 - 2
Big East - 1
Ind - 1
Sun Belt - 1
WAC - 1
Oregon was supposed to face a big challenge with Arizona coming to town, and the game was somewhat close in the first half, with the Ducks holding a 13-0 lead at halftime, but they came out smoking in the second half, and by the time they had finished dismantling the Wildcats on both sides of the ball, the scoreboard read 49-0 and the Ducks took over the top spot in my rankings. They should get another chance to put on a show when they go to Seattle to play Washington State this weekend.
Clemson may have lost for the first time this season, but in keeping the game with Florida State close, and even leading for the majority of the game, they proved that they do belong as one of the best teams in the country. They scored 37 points against a team that had given up only 3 all season, and they did it on the road, which makes it much more impressive. They have to wait until the final week of the season to meet another ranked team unless Virginia Tech plays really well in the next 2 weeks, so that could hurt their chances of climbing much higher.
Oregon State was the final team to finish its second game, and the result of the second was just as amazing as the first. The Beavers pulled off their second straight upset of an undefeated ranked opponent when they beat UCLA on the road to climb to 2-0 and join the rankings for the first time in a few years. They would have had a chance at a 3rd straight upset if Arizona hadn't completely collapsed against Oregon this weekend, but it would still be an impressive victory.
San Jose State pulled off an upset at San Diego State this weekend, which allowed them to replace the Aztecs in my top 25. While none of their 3 wins is especially outstanding, their season-opening 3-point loss at Stanford is now making them look like a pretty strong team, even if they are playing in the extremely weak WAC. They will have a couple of challenges left this season, but they have a very real chance at running the table and finishing the season at 11-1.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Thursday
(8) Stanford at Washington - Cardinal by 13
Friday
Hawaii at BYU - Cougars by 42
Saturday
Buffalo at Connecticut - Huskies by 4
Middle Tennessee at Georgia Tech - Yellowjackets by 2
Indiana at Northwestern - Wildcats by 6
(25) Baylor at (9) West Virginia - Mountaineers by 6
Stony Brook at Army - Seawolves by 11
Penn State at Illinois - Fighting Illini by 4
Missouri at UCF - Knights by 2
Minnesota at Iowa - Golden Gophers by 1
Ball State at Kent State - Cardinals by 4
North Carolina State at Miami - Hurricanes by 14
Arkansas at Texas A&M - Aggies by 38
Duke at Wake Forest - Blue Devils by 6
Nevada at Texas State - Wolf Pack by 27
Colorado State at Air Force - Falcons by 9
Miami-Ohio at Akron - Zips by 15
Tulsa at UAB - Golden Hurricane by 11
Marshall at Purdue - Boilermakers by 38
Troy at South Alabama - Trojans by 10
Tennessee at (5) Georgia - Bulldogs by 34
(17) Clemson at Boston College - Tigers by 20
Ohio at Massachusetts - Bobcats by 35
(14) Ohio State at (20) Michigan State - Spartans by 3
Idaho at North Carolina - Tar Heels by 14
Rhode Island at Bowling Green - Falcons
Houston vs. Rice - Cougars by 6
Louisiana Tech at Virginia - Bulldogs by 19
Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati - Bearcats by 31
San Jose State at Navy - Spartans by 37
Central Michigan at Northern Illinois - Huskies by 8
Louisiana-Monroe at Tulane - Warhawks by 21
Arizona State at California - Sun Devils by 12
North Texas at Florida Atlantic - Owls by 4
(24) Boise State at New Mexico - Lobos by 7
UCLA at Colorado - Bruins by 18
(4) Florida State at South Florida - Seminoles by 24
Texas Tech at Iowa State - Red Raiders by 19
(6) South Carolina at Kentucky - Gamecocks by 18
Towson at (3) LSU - Tigers
UTEP at East Carolina - Miners by 2
Florida International at Louisiana-Lafayette - Ragin Cajuns by 20
Western Kentucky at Arkansas State - Hilltoppers by 1
(15) TCU at SMU - Horned Frogs by 18
Toledo at Western Michigan - Rockets by 19
(12) Texas at Oklahoma State - Longhorns by 14
Wisconsin at (22) Nebraska - Cornhuskers by 10
Texas-San Antonio at New Mexico State - Roadrunners by 9
UNLV at Utah State - Aggies by 29
(19) Louisville at Southern Miss - Cardinals by 16
Mississippi at (1) Alabama - Crimson Tide by 32
(18) Oregon State at Arizona - Wildcats by 4
San Diego State at Fresno State - Bulldogs by 27
(2) Oregon vs. Washington State - Ducks by 49
Prediction Results
College Football: 43-17 (.717) 204-71 overall (.742)
Upsets: 3-6 (.333) 10-29 overall (.256)
TW. (LW) Team (Record) Result (AP)
1. (16) Oregon (4-0) W (2)
2. (8) Alabama (4-0) W (1)
3. (3) Cincinnati (2-0) BYE (36)
4. (5) Georgia (4-0) W (5)
5. (2) Florida State (4-0) W (4)
6. (4) Kansas State (4-0) W (7)
7. (7) Texas (3-0) BYE (12)
8. (1) LSU (4-0) W (3)
9. (10) Florida (4-0) W (11)
10. (25) South Carolina (4-0) W (6)
11. (NR) Clemson (3-1) L (17)
12. (17) Texas A&M (2-1) W (35)
13. (13) Texas Tech (3-0) BYE (36)
14. (NR) Oklahoma (2-1) L (16)
15. (NR) Stanford (3-0) BYE (8)
16. (NR) Virginia Tech (3-1) W (30)
17. (11) Oklahoma State (2-1) BYE (34)
18. (18) Purdue (2-1) BYE (41)
19. (24) Arizona State (3-1) W (39)
20. (NR) Mississippi State (4-0) W (21)
21. (NR) Notre Dame (4-0) W (10)
22. (NR) Oregon State (2-0) W (18)
23. (20) Middle Tennessee (2-1) BYE (NR)
24. (NR) San Jose State (3-1) W (NR)
25. (NR) Nebraska (3-1) W (22)
Dropped From Rankings
(6) Arizona (3-1) L (31)
(9) Toledo (3-1) W (NR)
(12) West Virginia (3-0) W (9)
(23) UCLA (3-1) L (27)
(21) Tulsa (3-1) W (NR)
(14) Iowa State (3-0) BYE (32)
(19) San Diego State (2-2) L (NR)
(15) Washington (2-1) BYE (NR)
(22) Fresno State (2-2) L (NR)
Ranked Teams by Conference
SEC - 7
Big 12 - 5
Pac 12 - 4
ACC - 3
Big 10 - 2
Big East - 1
Ind - 1
Sun Belt - 1
WAC - 1
Oregon was supposed to face a big challenge with Arizona coming to town, and the game was somewhat close in the first half, with the Ducks holding a 13-0 lead at halftime, but they came out smoking in the second half, and by the time they had finished dismantling the Wildcats on both sides of the ball, the scoreboard read 49-0 and the Ducks took over the top spot in my rankings. They should get another chance to put on a show when they go to Seattle to play Washington State this weekend.
Clemson may have lost for the first time this season, but in keeping the game with Florida State close, and even leading for the majority of the game, they proved that they do belong as one of the best teams in the country. They scored 37 points against a team that had given up only 3 all season, and they did it on the road, which makes it much more impressive. They have to wait until the final week of the season to meet another ranked team unless Virginia Tech plays really well in the next 2 weeks, so that could hurt their chances of climbing much higher.
Oregon State was the final team to finish its second game, and the result of the second was just as amazing as the first. The Beavers pulled off their second straight upset of an undefeated ranked opponent when they beat UCLA on the road to climb to 2-0 and join the rankings for the first time in a few years. They would have had a chance at a 3rd straight upset if Arizona hadn't completely collapsed against Oregon this weekend, but it would still be an impressive victory.
San Jose State pulled off an upset at San Diego State this weekend, which allowed them to replace the Aztecs in my top 25. While none of their 3 wins is especially outstanding, their season-opening 3-point loss at Stanford is now making them look like a pretty strong team, even if they are playing in the extremely weak WAC. They will have a couple of challenges left this season, but they have a very real chance at running the table and finishing the season at 11-1.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Thursday
(8) Stanford at Washington - Cardinal by 13
Friday
Hawaii at BYU - Cougars by 42
Saturday
Buffalo at Connecticut - Huskies by 4
Middle Tennessee at Georgia Tech - Yellowjackets by 2
Indiana at Northwestern - Wildcats by 6
(25) Baylor at (9) West Virginia - Mountaineers by 6
Stony Brook at Army - Seawolves by 11
Penn State at Illinois - Fighting Illini by 4
Missouri at UCF - Knights by 2
Minnesota at Iowa - Golden Gophers by 1
Ball State at Kent State - Cardinals by 4
North Carolina State at Miami - Hurricanes by 14
Arkansas at Texas A&M - Aggies by 38
Duke at Wake Forest - Blue Devils by 6
Nevada at Texas State - Wolf Pack by 27
Colorado State at Air Force - Falcons by 9
Miami-Ohio at Akron - Zips by 15
Tulsa at UAB - Golden Hurricane by 11
Marshall at Purdue - Boilermakers by 38
Troy at South Alabama - Trojans by 10
Tennessee at (5) Georgia - Bulldogs by 34
(17) Clemson at Boston College - Tigers by 20
Ohio at Massachusetts - Bobcats by 35
(14) Ohio State at (20) Michigan State - Spartans by 3
Idaho at North Carolina - Tar Heels by 14
Rhode Island at Bowling Green - Falcons
Houston vs. Rice - Cougars by 6
Louisiana Tech at Virginia - Bulldogs by 19
Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati - Bearcats by 31
San Jose State at Navy - Spartans by 37
Central Michigan at Northern Illinois - Huskies by 8
Louisiana-Monroe at Tulane - Warhawks by 21
Arizona State at California - Sun Devils by 12
North Texas at Florida Atlantic - Owls by 4
(24) Boise State at New Mexico - Lobos by 7
UCLA at Colorado - Bruins by 18
(4) Florida State at South Florida - Seminoles by 24
Texas Tech at Iowa State - Red Raiders by 19
(6) South Carolina at Kentucky - Gamecocks by 18
Towson at (3) LSU - Tigers
UTEP at East Carolina - Miners by 2
Florida International at Louisiana-Lafayette - Ragin Cajuns by 20
Western Kentucky at Arkansas State - Hilltoppers by 1
(15) TCU at SMU - Horned Frogs by 18
Toledo at Western Michigan - Rockets by 19
(12) Texas at Oklahoma State - Longhorns by 14
Wisconsin at (22) Nebraska - Cornhuskers by 10
Texas-San Antonio at New Mexico State - Roadrunners by 9
UNLV at Utah State - Aggies by 29
(19) Louisville at Southern Miss - Cardinals by 16
Mississippi at (1) Alabama - Crimson Tide by 32
(18) Oregon State at Arizona - Wildcats by 4
San Diego State at Fresno State - Bulldogs by 27
(2) Oregon vs. Washington State - Ducks by 49
Prediction Results
College Football: 43-17 (.717) 204-71 overall (.742)
Upsets: 3-6 (.333) 10-29 overall (.256)
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
NFL Rankings - 19 Sep
After only two weeks, there are only 6 undefeated teams remaining in the NFL. Some, like the Arizona Cardinals, are somewhat surprising, while a couple, like San Francisco and Houston, were a little more expected. Then there are the Saints, my preseason Super Bowl pick, who have yet to win a game. Here are my updated rankings, with ESPN Power Ranking in parentheses.
TW. (LW) Team (Record) Result (ESPN)
1. (6) Houston (2-0) W (2)
2. (12) Seattle (1-1) W (17)
3. (4) San Francisco (2-0) W (1)
4. (11) Arizona (2-0) W (14)
5. (1) Baltimore (1-1) L (6)
6. (8) Denver (1-1) L (10)
7. (18) Pittsburgh (1-1) W (9)
8. (23) Detroit (1-1) L (13)
9. (15) Atlanta (2-0) W (3)
10. (2) New England (1-1) L (5)
11. (10) Green Bay (1-1) W (4)
12. (26) Saint Louis (1-1) W (23)
13. (25) Miami (1-1) W (25)
14. (13) Philadelphia (2-0) W (7)
15. (3) Washington (1-1) L (20)
16. (21) San Diego (2-0) W (11)
17. (7) Dallas (1-1) L (15)
18. (5) NY Jets (1-1) L (18)
19. (14) Chicago (1-1) L (12)
20. (17) NY Giants (1-1) W (8)
21. (20) Cleveland (0-2) L (32)
22. (16) Tampa Bay (1-1) L (21)
23. (22) Carolina (1-1) W (19)
24. (28) Jacksonville (0-2) L (31)
25. (24) Cincinnati (1-1) W (16)
26. (19) Buffalo (1-1) W (22)
27. (9) New Orleans (0-2) L (24)
28. (29) Minnesota (1-1) L (29)
29. (31) Oakland (0-2) L (30)
30. (30) Indianapolis (1-1) W (27)
31. (32) Kansas City (0-2) L (28)
32. (27) Tennessee (0-2) L (26)
Seattle made a huge leap to the #2 slot, despite having lost a game already. That loss, however, came against the Arizona Cardinals, who just beat the AFC favorite New England Patriots, and Seattle had a dominant victory over the Dallas Cowboys in week 2, scoring in every possible way while holding Dallas to just 7 points. Seattle hosts Green Bay this week on Monday Night Football, and it seems like the Seahawks are being overlooked. They just may surprise a few people on national television.
Detroit followed up a weak win against the Saint Louis Rams with a decent showing against the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night, which allowed them to climb into the top ten despite losing. This week they will visit winless Tennessee, and I expect to see the blowout of the week in that game.
After Washington's huge upset of New Orleans in week one, they catapulted into the upper reaches of the rankings, but a loss to Saint Louis in week two, coupled with another loss from the Saints, dropped the Redskins back to earth and into the middle of the pack again. Their home opener against the Bengals this weekend should help get them back on track.
New Orleans' loss in week one looked like it could have been a fluke, but after losing to Carolina by the same margin in week two, it's time to recognize that these Saints may not be good enough to make the playoffs, let alone play in the Super Bowl on their home turf. If they can't beat Kansas City this weekend, it'll be time to write them off.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Thursday
NY Giants at Carolina - Panthers by 2
Sunday
Saint Louis at Chicago - Rams by 3
Buffalo at Cleveland - Browns by 6
Tampa Bay at Dallas - Cowboys by 13
Detroit at Tennessee - Lions by 25
Jacksonville at Indianapolis - Jaguars by 3
NY Jets at Miami - Dolphins by 7
San Francisco at Minnesota - 49ers by 23
Kansas City at New Orleans - Saints by 12
Cincinnati at Washington - Redskins by 17
Philadelphia at Arizona - Cardinals by 14
Atlanta at San Diego - Falcons by 2
Houston at Denver - Texans by 3
Pittsburgh at Oakland - Steelers by 17
New England at Baltimore - Ravens by 10
Monday
Green Bay at Seattle - Seahawks by 13
Prediction Results
NFL: 8-8 (.500) 20-12 overall (.625)
Upsets: 1-3 (.250) 2-3 overall (.400)
TW. (LW) Team (Record) Result (ESPN)
1. (6) Houston (2-0) W (2)
2. (12) Seattle (1-1) W (17)
3. (4) San Francisco (2-0) W (1)
4. (11) Arizona (2-0) W (14)
5. (1) Baltimore (1-1) L (6)
6. (8) Denver (1-1) L (10)
7. (18) Pittsburgh (1-1) W (9)
8. (23) Detroit (1-1) L (13)
9. (15) Atlanta (2-0) W (3)
10. (2) New England (1-1) L (5)
11. (10) Green Bay (1-1) W (4)
12. (26) Saint Louis (1-1) W (23)
13. (25) Miami (1-1) W (25)
14. (13) Philadelphia (2-0) W (7)
15. (3) Washington (1-1) L (20)
16. (21) San Diego (2-0) W (11)
17. (7) Dallas (1-1) L (15)
18. (5) NY Jets (1-1) L (18)
19. (14) Chicago (1-1) L (12)
20. (17) NY Giants (1-1) W (8)
21. (20) Cleveland (0-2) L (32)
22. (16) Tampa Bay (1-1) L (21)
23. (22) Carolina (1-1) W (19)
24. (28) Jacksonville (0-2) L (31)
25. (24) Cincinnati (1-1) W (16)
26. (19) Buffalo (1-1) W (22)
27. (9) New Orleans (0-2) L (24)
28. (29) Minnesota (1-1) L (29)
29. (31) Oakland (0-2) L (30)
30. (30) Indianapolis (1-1) W (27)
31. (32) Kansas City (0-2) L (28)
32. (27) Tennessee (0-2) L (26)
Seattle made a huge leap to the #2 slot, despite having lost a game already. That loss, however, came against the Arizona Cardinals, who just beat the AFC favorite New England Patriots, and Seattle had a dominant victory over the Dallas Cowboys in week 2, scoring in every possible way while holding Dallas to just 7 points. Seattle hosts Green Bay this week on Monday Night Football, and it seems like the Seahawks are being overlooked. They just may surprise a few people on national television.
Detroit followed up a weak win against the Saint Louis Rams with a decent showing against the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night, which allowed them to climb into the top ten despite losing. This week they will visit winless Tennessee, and I expect to see the blowout of the week in that game.
After Washington's huge upset of New Orleans in week one, they catapulted into the upper reaches of the rankings, but a loss to Saint Louis in week two, coupled with another loss from the Saints, dropped the Redskins back to earth and into the middle of the pack again. Their home opener against the Bengals this weekend should help get them back on track.
New Orleans' loss in week one looked like it could have been a fluke, but after losing to Carolina by the same margin in week two, it's time to recognize that these Saints may not be good enough to make the playoffs, let alone play in the Super Bowl on their home turf. If they can't beat Kansas City this weekend, it'll be time to write them off.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Thursday
NY Giants at Carolina - Panthers by 2
Sunday
Saint Louis at Chicago - Rams by 3
Buffalo at Cleveland - Browns by 6
Tampa Bay at Dallas - Cowboys by 13
Detroit at Tennessee - Lions by 25
Jacksonville at Indianapolis - Jaguars by 3
NY Jets at Miami - Dolphins by 7
San Francisco at Minnesota - 49ers by 23
Kansas City at New Orleans - Saints by 12
Cincinnati at Washington - Redskins by 17
Philadelphia at Arizona - Cardinals by 14
Atlanta at San Diego - Falcons by 2
Houston at Denver - Texans by 3
Pittsburgh at Oakland - Steelers by 17
New England at Baltimore - Ravens by 10
Monday
Green Bay at Seattle - Seahawks by 13
Prediction Results
NFL: 8-8 (.500) 20-12 overall (.625)
Upsets: 1-3 (.250) 2-3 overall (.400)
Tuesday, September 18, 2012
College Football Predictions - Sep 19 - 22
My prediction percentage for the season is sitting just under my goal of 75% so far, but my upset prediction percentage is much lower than I am comfortable with. This week I have 9 upset picks, and I will have to get a decent percentage on them in order to make my final record more reasonable.
Upset picks are in italics.
Wednesday
Kent State at Buffalo - Bulls by 58
Thursday
BYU at (24) Boise State - Cougars by 13
Friday
Baylor at Louisiana-Monroe - Warhawks by 1
Saturday
Massachusetts at Miami-Ohio - Redhawks by 16
UAB at (16) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 34
Bowling Green at Virginia Tech - Falcons by 4
UTEP at Wisconsin - Badgers by 25
Maryland at (8) West Virginia - Mountaineers by 50
Central Michigan at Iowa - Hawkeyes by 62
Virginia at (17) TCU - Horned Frogs by 22
Mississippi at Tulane - Green Wave by 1
Kentucky at (14) Florida - Gators by 37
Army at Wake Forest - Demon Deacons by 18
Norfolk State at Ohio - Bobcats
Northwestern Oklahoma State at Texas-San Antonio - Roadrunners
Connecticut at Western Michigan - Huskies by 2
Miami at Georgia Tech - Yellowjackets by 11
Oregon State at (19) UCLA - Bruins by 18
South Dakota at Northwestern - Wildcats
Eastern Michigan at (21) Michigan State - Spartans by 9
East Carolina at North Carolina - Tar Heels by 23
Idaho State at (25) Nebraska - Cornhuskers
Temple at Penn State - Nittany Lions by 29
Gardner-Webb at Pittsburgh - Panthers
Marshall at Rice - Thundering Herd by 3
VMI at Navy - Midshipmen
Kansas at Northern Illinois - Huskies by 22
Missouri at (7) South Carolina - Gamecocks by 8
Colorado at Washington State - Cougars by 21
South Florida at Ball State - Bulls by 6
Wyoming at Idaho - Cowboys by 2
Florida Atlantic at (1) Alabama - Crimson Tide by 32
California at (13) USC - Trojans by 19
Memphis at Duke - Tigers by 7
Citadel at North Carolina State - Wolfpack
(2) LSU at Auburn - LSU Tigers by 55
Rutgers at Arkansas - Scarlet Knights by 29
Utah State at Colorado State - Aggies by 18
Southern Miss at Western Kentucky - Hilltoppers by 26
South Carolina State at Texas A&M - Aggies
Troy at North Texas - Mean Green by 50
Stephen F Austin at Texas State - Bobcats
South Alabama at (23) Mississippi State - Bulldogs by 30
Alcorn State at Arkansas State - Red Wolves
(20) Louisville at Florida International - Cardinals by 32
Coastal Carolina at Toledo - Rockets
(18) Michigan at (11) Notre Dame - Fighting Irish by 15
Akron at Tennessee - Volunteers by 52
Vanderbilt at (5) Georgia - Bulldogs by 42
(15) Kansas State at (6) Oklahoma - Wildcats by 28
San Jose State at San Diego State - Aztecs by 16
(10) Clemson at (4) Florida State - Seminoles by 47
Syracuse at Minnesota - Orange by 7
New Mexico at New Mexico State - Lobos by 9
Fresno State at Tulsa - Golden Hurricane by 5
Louisiana Tech at Illinois - Bulldogs by 6
Air Force at UNLV - Falcons by 23
Utah at Arizona State - Sun Devils by 14
Nevada at Hawaii - Wolf Pack by 22
(22) Arizona at (3) Oregon - Wildcats by 11
Upset picks are in italics.
Wednesday
Kent State at Buffalo - Bulls by 58
Thursday
BYU at (24) Boise State - Cougars by 13
Friday
Baylor at Louisiana-Monroe - Warhawks by 1
Saturday
Massachusetts at Miami-Ohio - Redhawks by 16
UAB at (16) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 34
Bowling Green at Virginia Tech - Falcons by 4
UTEP at Wisconsin - Badgers by 25
Maryland at (8) West Virginia - Mountaineers by 50
Central Michigan at Iowa - Hawkeyes by 62
Virginia at (17) TCU - Horned Frogs by 22
Mississippi at Tulane - Green Wave by 1
Kentucky at (14) Florida - Gators by 37
Army at Wake Forest - Demon Deacons by 18
Norfolk State at Ohio - Bobcats
Northwestern Oklahoma State at Texas-San Antonio - Roadrunners
Connecticut at Western Michigan - Huskies by 2
Miami at Georgia Tech - Yellowjackets by 11
Oregon State at (19) UCLA - Bruins by 18
South Dakota at Northwestern - Wildcats
Eastern Michigan at (21) Michigan State - Spartans by 9
East Carolina at North Carolina - Tar Heels by 23
Idaho State at (25) Nebraska - Cornhuskers
Temple at Penn State - Nittany Lions by 29
Gardner-Webb at Pittsburgh - Panthers
Marshall at Rice - Thundering Herd by 3
VMI at Navy - Midshipmen
Kansas at Northern Illinois - Huskies by 22
Missouri at (7) South Carolina - Gamecocks by 8
Colorado at Washington State - Cougars by 21
South Florida at Ball State - Bulls by 6
Wyoming at Idaho - Cowboys by 2
Florida Atlantic at (1) Alabama - Crimson Tide by 32
California at (13) USC - Trojans by 19
Memphis at Duke - Tigers by 7
Citadel at North Carolina State - Wolfpack
(2) LSU at Auburn - LSU Tigers by 55
Rutgers at Arkansas - Scarlet Knights by 29
Utah State at Colorado State - Aggies by 18
Southern Miss at Western Kentucky - Hilltoppers by 26
South Carolina State at Texas A&M - Aggies
Troy at North Texas - Mean Green by 50
Stephen F Austin at Texas State - Bobcats
South Alabama at (23) Mississippi State - Bulldogs by 30
Alcorn State at Arkansas State - Red Wolves
(20) Louisville at Florida International - Cardinals by 32
Coastal Carolina at Toledo - Rockets
(18) Michigan at (11) Notre Dame - Fighting Irish by 15
Akron at Tennessee - Volunteers by 52
Vanderbilt at (5) Georgia - Bulldogs by 42
(15) Kansas State at (6) Oklahoma - Wildcats by 28
San Jose State at San Diego State - Aztecs by 16
(10) Clemson at (4) Florida State - Seminoles by 47
Syracuse at Minnesota - Orange by 7
New Mexico at New Mexico State - Lobos by 9
Fresno State at Tulsa - Golden Hurricane by 5
Louisiana Tech at Illinois - Bulldogs by 6
Air Force at UNLV - Falcons by 23
Utah at Arizona State - Sun Devils by 14
Nevada at Hawaii - Wolf Pack by 22
(22) Arizona at (3) Oregon - Wildcats by 11
Monday, September 17, 2012
College Football Rankings - 17 Sep
While there were not many upsets in the college football world over the weekend, there was plenty of movement in my rankings, mostly due to updates in strength of schedule. 14 teams moved into the top 25, and 14 others slipped below, in most cases due to no fault of their own, but the fault of their schedulers. Here are the top 25 teams at this point in the season, based on the strength of their past opponents and their performance against them.
TW. (LW) Team (Record) Result (AP)
1. (4) LSU (3-0) W (2)
2. (5) Florida State (3-0) W (4)
3. (17) Cincinnati (2-0) W (34)
4. (3) Kansas State (3-0) W (15)
5. (21) Georgia (3-0) W (5)
6. (NR) Arizona (3-0) W (22)
7. (NR) Texas (3-0) W (12)
8. (1) Alabama (3-0) W (1)
9. (NR) Toledo (2-1) W (NR)
10. (NR) Florida (3-0) W (14)
11. (NR) Oklahoma State (2-1) W (30)
12. (2) West Virginia (2-0) W (8)
13. (NR) Texas Tech (3-0) W (36)
14. (25) Iowa State (3-0) W (32)
15. (NR) Washington (2-1) W (NR)
16. (NR) Oregon (3-0) W (3)
17. (NR) Texas A&M (1-1) W (38)
18. (8) Purdue (2-1) W (NR)
19. (NR) San Diego State (2-1) W (NR)
20. (NR) Middle Tennessee (2-1) W (NR)
21. (NR) Tulsa (2-1) W (NR)
22. (NR) Fresno State (2-1) W (NR)
23. (9) UCLA (3-0) W (19)
24. (16) Arizona State (2-1) L (NR)
25. (NR) South Carolina (3-0) W (7)
Dropping Out
(14) Notre Dame (3-0) W (11)
(15) Nebraska (2-1) W (25)
(10) USC (2-1) L (13)
(13) BYU (2-1) L (NR)
(11) Louisville (3-0) W (20)
(23) Tennessee (2-1) L (35)
(20) Wisconsin (2-1) W (36)
(6) Ohio State (3-0) W (16)
(22) Oregon State (1-0) BYE (26)
(12) Mississippi State (3-0) W (23)
(7) TCU (2-0) W (17)
(19) Louisiana-Lafayette (2-1) L (NR)
(18) Baylor (2-0) W (27)
(24) Louisiana-Monroe (2-1) L (NR)
Ranked Teams by Conference
SEC - 6
Big 12 - 6
Pac 12 - 5
MWC - 2
ACC - 1
Big East - 1
MAC - 1
Big 10 - 1
CUSA - 1
Sun Belt - 1
While the Florida State Seminoles have only played one FBS opponent so far, their average score through three games has been 59-1, with the only score they've given up this season coming on a field goal by Murray State in the second quarter of their opening game. This week undefeated Clemson is coming to town, and we'll see if the Seminoles defense is as good when they play real opponents.
Arizona's big upset of Oklahoma State is looking even better now after the Cowboys blew another opponent out of the water on Saturday, and the Wildcats could be the dark horse of the Pac 12. We will certainly know more about them when they square off with Oregon this weekend in a game that should feature a ton of scoring.
You would think that a 52-0 win over the Arkansas Razorbacks would have been enough to keep Alabama in the top spot, but Arkansas is not as good as they've been in recent years. Louisiana-Monroe, the team that upset Arkansas last week, just got blown out by Oklahoma State, who was blown out by Arizona the previous week, so a shutout of the Razorbacks doesn't quite mean what it used to. Two more weak opponents should hold the Tide down for a while longer.
Prediction Results
College Football: 53-15 (.779) 161-54 overall (.749)
Upsets: 1-6 (.143) 7-23 overall (.233)
Watch for my weekend predictions later in the week.
TW. (LW) Team (Record) Result (AP)
1. (4) LSU (3-0) W (2)
2. (5) Florida State (3-0) W (4)
3. (17) Cincinnati (2-0) W (34)
4. (3) Kansas State (3-0) W (15)
5. (21) Georgia (3-0) W (5)
6. (NR) Arizona (3-0) W (22)
7. (NR) Texas (3-0) W (12)
8. (1) Alabama (3-0) W (1)
9. (NR) Toledo (2-1) W (NR)
10. (NR) Florida (3-0) W (14)
11. (NR) Oklahoma State (2-1) W (30)
12. (2) West Virginia (2-0) W (8)
13. (NR) Texas Tech (3-0) W (36)
14. (25) Iowa State (3-0) W (32)
15. (NR) Washington (2-1) W (NR)
16. (NR) Oregon (3-0) W (3)
17. (NR) Texas A&M (1-1) W (38)
18. (8) Purdue (2-1) W (NR)
19. (NR) San Diego State (2-1) W (NR)
20. (NR) Middle Tennessee (2-1) W (NR)
21. (NR) Tulsa (2-1) W (NR)
22. (NR) Fresno State (2-1) W (NR)
23. (9) UCLA (3-0) W (19)
24. (16) Arizona State (2-1) L (NR)
25. (NR) South Carolina (3-0) W (7)
Dropping Out
(14) Notre Dame (3-0) W (11)
(15) Nebraska (2-1) W (25)
(10) USC (2-1) L (13)
(13) BYU (2-1) L (NR)
(11) Louisville (3-0) W (20)
(23) Tennessee (2-1) L (35)
(20) Wisconsin (2-1) W (36)
(6) Ohio State (3-0) W (16)
(22) Oregon State (1-0) BYE (26)
(12) Mississippi State (3-0) W (23)
(7) TCU (2-0) W (17)
(19) Louisiana-Lafayette (2-1) L (NR)
(18) Baylor (2-0) W (27)
(24) Louisiana-Monroe (2-1) L (NR)
Ranked Teams by Conference
SEC - 6
Big 12 - 6
Pac 12 - 5
MWC - 2
ACC - 1
Big East - 1
MAC - 1
Big 10 - 1
CUSA - 1
Sun Belt - 1
While the Florida State Seminoles have only played one FBS opponent so far, their average score through three games has been 59-1, with the only score they've given up this season coming on a field goal by Murray State in the second quarter of their opening game. This week undefeated Clemson is coming to town, and we'll see if the Seminoles defense is as good when they play real opponents.
Arizona's big upset of Oklahoma State is looking even better now after the Cowboys blew another opponent out of the water on Saturday, and the Wildcats could be the dark horse of the Pac 12. We will certainly know more about them when they square off with Oregon this weekend in a game that should feature a ton of scoring.
You would think that a 52-0 win over the Arkansas Razorbacks would have been enough to keep Alabama in the top spot, but Arkansas is not as good as they've been in recent years. Louisiana-Monroe, the team that upset Arkansas last week, just got blown out by Oklahoma State, who was blown out by Arizona the previous week, so a shutout of the Razorbacks doesn't quite mean what it used to. Two more weak opponents should hold the Tide down for a while longer.
Prediction Results
College Football: 53-15 (.779) 161-54 overall (.749)
Upsets: 1-6 (.143) 7-23 overall (.233)
Watch for my weekend predictions later in the week.
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
NFL Rankings - 12 Sep
There were a few surprises in week one of the NFL season, the biggest coming as Robert Griffin III and the Washington Redskins upset the New Orleans Saints on the road, ensuring that the Saints will not finish with the perfect record I predicted just a week ago. They still have a shot at winning the Super Bowl in their home stadium, but they are not the favorite anymore. Here are the updated rankings, with ESPN Power Ranking in parentheses.
TW. (LW) Team (Record) (ESPN)
1. (3) Baltimore (1-0) (3)
2. (4) New England (1-0) (1)
3. (24) Washington (1-0) (15)
4. (2) San Francisco (1-0) (2)
5. (7) NY Jets (1-0) (17)
6. (14) Houston (1-0) (4)
7. (13) Dallas (1-0) (10)
8. (12) Denver (1-0) (9)
9. (1) New Orleans (0-1) (16)
10. (11) Green Bay (0-1) (5)
11. (23) Arizona (1-0) (20)
12. (9) Seattle (0-1) (26)
13. (6) Philadelphia (1-0) (12)
14. (5) Chicago (1-0) (8)
15. (15) Atlanta (1-0) (6)
16. (27) Tampa Bay (1-0) (21)
17. (17) NY Giants (0-1) (7)
18. (22) Pittsburgh (0-1) (11)
19. (8) Buffalo (0-1) (24)
20. (25) Cleveland (0-1) (31)
21. (19) San Diego (1-0) (14)
22. (16) Carolina (0-1) (23)
23. (10) Detroit (1-0) (13)
24. (18) Cincinnati (0-1) (18)
25. (20) Miami (0-1) (30)
26. (29) Saint Louis (0-1) (27)
27. (21) Tennessee (0-1) (22)
28. (28) Jacksonville (0-1) (29)
29. (26) Minnesota (1-0) (28)
30. (32) Indianapolis (0-1) (32)
31. (31) Oakland (0-1) (25)
32. (30) Kansas City (0-1) (19)
The move of the week was made by the Washington Redskins, led by rookie Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III, who was the first player every to be named the NFL Player of the Week in his very first game as a professional. Even more impressive is the fact that he outdueled former MVP Drew Brees in the process. Most star rookie quarterbacks don't lead their teams to the playoffs, but Griffin may break that trend.
The Arizona Cardinals also made a big move this week, even with starting quarterback John Skelton going down late in the game. Kevin Kolb, who was the starter at the beginning of last season, stepped in and led Arizona on the game-winning touchdown drive, then the Cardinals' defense made a goal line stand to protect the lead and open the season with a victory.
Tampa Bay, who looked so bad in losing their final 10 games last season that they ended the season as the lowest-ranked team in my standings, pulled off a shocker when they knocked off Cam Newton and the Panthers to open the season and gave Greg Schiano a great start to his professional head coaching career.
The Detroit Lions dropped 13 spots in my rankings despite winning their opening game, and it was due to the fact that they needed a last-second touchdown to defeat the Saint Louis Rams, who haven't had a winning season since Kurt Warner left, and have won 3 games or fewer in 4 of the past 5 seasons. A repeat playoff appearance will not be happening if they play like that the rest of the season.
I expected the Buffalo Bills to lose to the New York Jets last weekend, but mostly due to the home field advantage, so when the Jets annihilated the Bills in the opener, leading by as much as 34 points early in the third quarter, it signaled that Buffalo is not as good as they were last season, which wasn't even enough to make the playoffs.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Thursday
Chicago at Green Bay - Packers by 6
Sunday
Arizona at New England - Patriots by 19
Kansas City at Buffalo - Bills by 19
Cleveland at Cincinnati - Bengals by 1
Minnesota at Indianapolis - Vikings by 1
Oakland at Miami - Dolphins by 13
Tampa Bay at NY Giants - Giants by 3
Baltimore at Philadelphia - Ravens by 16
New Orleans at Carolina - Saints by 6
Houston at Jacksonville - Texans by 17
Washington at Saint Louis - Redskins by 19
Dallas at Seattle - Cowboys by 3
NY Jets at Pittsburgh - Jets by 13
Tennessee at San Diego - Chargers by 6
Detroit at San Francisco - 49ers by 25
Monday
Denver at Atlanta - Broncos by 1
Prediction Results
NFL: 12-4 (.750)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000)
TW. (LW) Team (Record) (ESPN)
1. (3) Baltimore (1-0) (3)
2. (4) New England (1-0) (1)
3. (24) Washington (1-0) (15)
4. (2) San Francisco (1-0) (2)
5. (7) NY Jets (1-0) (17)
6. (14) Houston (1-0) (4)
7. (13) Dallas (1-0) (10)
8. (12) Denver (1-0) (9)
9. (1) New Orleans (0-1) (16)
10. (11) Green Bay (0-1) (5)
11. (23) Arizona (1-0) (20)
12. (9) Seattle (0-1) (26)
13. (6) Philadelphia (1-0) (12)
14. (5) Chicago (1-0) (8)
15. (15) Atlanta (1-0) (6)
16. (27) Tampa Bay (1-0) (21)
17. (17) NY Giants (0-1) (7)
18. (22) Pittsburgh (0-1) (11)
19. (8) Buffalo (0-1) (24)
20. (25) Cleveland (0-1) (31)
21. (19) San Diego (1-0) (14)
22. (16) Carolina (0-1) (23)
23. (10) Detroit (1-0) (13)
24. (18) Cincinnati (0-1) (18)
25. (20) Miami (0-1) (30)
26. (29) Saint Louis (0-1) (27)
27. (21) Tennessee (0-1) (22)
28. (28) Jacksonville (0-1) (29)
29. (26) Minnesota (1-0) (28)
30. (32) Indianapolis (0-1) (32)
31. (31) Oakland (0-1) (25)
32. (30) Kansas City (0-1) (19)
The move of the week was made by the Washington Redskins, led by rookie Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III, who was the first player every to be named the NFL Player of the Week in his very first game as a professional. Even more impressive is the fact that he outdueled former MVP Drew Brees in the process. Most star rookie quarterbacks don't lead their teams to the playoffs, but Griffin may break that trend.
The Arizona Cardinals also made a big move this week, even with starting quarterback John Skelton going down late in the game. Kevin Kolb, who was the starter at the beginning of last season, stepped in and led Arizona on the game-winning touchdown drive, then the Cardinals' defense made a goal line stand to protect the lead and open the season with a victory.
Tampa Bay, who looked so bad in losing their final 10 games last season that they ended the season as the lowest-ranked team in my standings, pulled off a shocker when they knocked off Cam Newton and the Panthers to open the season and gave Greg Schiano a great start to his professional head coaching career.
The Detroit Lions dropped 13 spots in my rankings despite winning their opening game, and it was due to the fact that they needed a last-second touchdown to defeat the Saint Louis Rams, who haven't had a winning season since Kurt Warner left, and have won 3 games or fewer in 4 of the past 5 seasons. A repeat playoff appearance will not be happening if they play like that the rest of the season.
I expected the Buffalo Bills to lose to the New York Jets last weekend, but mostly due to the home field advantage, so when the Jets annihilated the Bills in the opener, leading by as much as 34 points early in the third quarter, it signaled that Buffalo is not as good as they were last season, which wasn't even enough to make the playoffs.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Thursday
Chicago at Green Bay - Packers by 6
Sunday
Arizona at New England - Patriots by 19
Kansas City at Buffalo - Bills by 19
Cleveland at Cincinnati - Bengals by 1
Minnesota at Indianapolis - Vikings by 1
Oakland at Miami - Dolphins by 13
Tampa Bay at NY Giants - Giants by 3
Baltimore at Philadelphia - Ravens by 16
New Orleans at Carolina - Saints by 6
Houston at Jacksonville - Texans by 17
Washington at Saint Louis - Redskins by 19
Dallas at Seattle - Cowboys by 3
NY Jets at Pittsburgh - Jets by 13
Tennessee at San Diego - Chargers by 6
Detroit at San Francisco - 49ers by 25
Monday
Denver at Atlanta - Broncos by 1
Prediction Results
NFL: 12-4 (.750)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000)
Monday, September 10, 2012
College Football Rankings - 10 Sep
There were upsets galore in college football over the weekend, despite no games matching two ranked teams against each other, which means that there is a lot of new blood in the top 25. A couple of the teams joining the list this week have never made an appearance in the years that I've kept track of every team, so hopefully it won't be short-lived. Here are the updated rankings, with each team's AP ranking in parentheses.
TW. (LW) Team (Record) Result (AP)
1. (1) Alabama (2-0) W (1)
2. (2) West Virginia (1-0) BYE (9)
3. (3) Kansas State (2-0) W (15)
4. (24) LSU (2-0) W (3)
5. (8) Florida State (2-0) W (5)
6. (4) Ohio State (2-0) W (12)
7. (10) TCU (1-0) W (16)
8. (20) Purdue (1-1) L (NR)
9. (13) UCLA (2-0) W (22)
10. (7) USC (2-0) W (2)
11. (23) Louisville (2-0) W (19)
12. (NR) Mississippi State (2-0) W (30)
13. (15) BYU (2-0) W (25)
14. (9) Notre Dame (2-0) W (20)
15. (12) Nebraska (1-1) L (28)
16. (NR) Arizona State (2-0) W (38)
17. (NR) Cincinnati (1-0) W (NR)
18. (17) Baylor (1-0) BYE (31)
19. (NR) Louisiana-Lafayette (2-0) W (NR)
20. (21) Wisconsin (1-1) L (32)
21. (NR) Georgia (2-0) W (7)
22. (18) Oregon State (1-0) W (29)
23. (NR) Tennessee (2-0) W (23)
24. (NR) Louisiana-Monroe (1-0) W (33)
25. (NR) Iowa State (2-0) W (39)
Dropped from Rankings
(6) South Carolina (2-0) W (8)
(11) Air Force (1-1) L (NR)
(16) Texas (2-0) W (14)
(22) Oregon (2-0) W (4)
(5) Utah (1-1) L (NR)
(25) Vanderbilt (0-2) L (NR)
(14) Missouri (1-1) L (NR)
(19) Oklahoma State (1-1) L (36)
Ranked Teams by Conference
SEC - 5
Big 12 - 5
Pac 12 - 4
Big 10 - 4
Big East - 2
Ind - 2
Sun Belt - 2
ACC - 1
LSU finally did enough to prove that they might still be the same Tigers that finished the regular season undefeated last season after a 41-3 blowout of the Washington Huskies. Their previous win over North Texas didn't tell us anything about them, and their next win over Idaho won't help much either, but once October starts we'll really see if LSU can contend again this year.
Arizona State looked unstoppable at times in their easy victory over Illinois on Saturday night, scoring on 4 of their first 5 possessions and putting the game away by halftime. It was a good warmup for this week's game against Missouri, and if they win that one they will most likely be 6-0 when Oregon comes to town on October 18. College GameDay anyone?
Louisiana-Monroe may have grabbed the headlines with their upset of the #8 Razorbacks, but their in-state rivals, Louisiana-Lafayette, may be just as good. Both are undefeated so far, and both won tough road games over the weekend, but both are still picked to lose this weekend against AQ foes. I wouldn't be surprised to see another pair of wins for the teams from Louisiana.
Oregon is still undefeated and sitting at #4 in the national polls, but their low strength of schedule has dragged them out of my top 25 for the time being. Neither of their opponents is ranked among the top half of FBS teams, and neither margin of victory was as impressive as it should have been, and a visit from Tennessee Tech this weekend isn't going to help much either.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Thursday
Rutgers at South Florida - Bulls by 23
Friday
Washington State at UNLV - Cougars by 15
Saturday
Wake Forest at (5) Florida State - Seminoles by 28
Western Michigan at Minnesota - Golden Gophers by 12
Arkansas State at Nebraska - Cornhuskers by 35
California at (12) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 37
Louisiana-Lafayette at Oklahoma State - Ragin Cajuns by 24
(13) Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh - Hokies by 7
Northern Illinois at Army - Huskies by 35
Charleston Southern at Illinois - Fighting Illini
(16) TCU at Kansas - Horned Frogs by 34
Bethune-Cookman at Miami - Hurricanes
Eastern Michigan at Purdue - Boilermakers by 39
Louisiana-Monroe at Auburn - Warhawks by 3
Connecticut at Maryland - Huskies by 1
Presbyterian at Vanderbilt - Commodores
Furman at (11) Clemson - Tigers
Tennessee Tech at Oregon - Ducks
(1) Alabama at Arkansas - Crimson Tide by 28
Virginia at Georgia Tech - Yellowjackets by 22
Boston College at Northwestern - Wildcats by 23
North Carolina at (19) Louisville - Cardinals by 20
Massachusetts at (17) Michigan - Wolverines by 57
Navy at Penn State - Nittany Lions by 14
Morgan State at Akron - Zips
Northern Iowa at Iowa - Hawkeyes
Texas A&M at SMU - Mustangs by 10
East Carolina at Southern Miss - Golden Eagles by 21
Stony Brook at Syracuse - Orange
Portland State at Washington - Huskies
Florida International at UCF - Knights by 55
Miami-Ohio at Boise State - Broncos by 28
James Madison vs. (9) West Virginia - Mountaineers
South Alabama at North Carolina State - Wolfpack by 54
Texas-San Antonio at Georgia State - Roadrunners
(18) Florida at (23) Tennessee - Volunteers by 28
Cal Poly at Wyoming - Cowboys
Ohio at Marshall - Thundering Herd by 8
Western Kentucky at Kentucky - Wildcats by 2
North Carolina Central at Duke - Blue Devils
Nicholls State at Tulsa - Golden Hurricane
Arizona State at Missouri - Sun Devils by 23
Middle Tennessee at Memphis - Tigers by 18
Delaware State at Cincinnati - Bearcats
North Texas at (15) Kansas State - Wildcats by 29
Rice at Louisiana Tech - Bulldogs by 19
UAB at (8) South Carolina - Gamecocks by 34
New Mexico at Texas Tech - Red Raiders by 46
Bowling Green at Toledo - Rockets by 23
Mississippi State at Troy - Bulldogs by 15
Sam Houston State at Baylor - Bears
Northwestern State at Nevada - Wolf Pack
(2) USC at (21) Stanford - Trojans by 5
Florida Atlantic at (7) Georgia - Bulldogs by 53
North Dakota at San Diego State - Aztecs
Colorado State at San Jose State - Spartans by 45
Western Illinois at Iowa State - Cyclones
Ball State at Indiana - Hoosiers by 17
Idaho at (3) LSU - Tigers by 50
(20) Notre Dame at (10) Michigan State - Fighting Irish by 11
Utah State at Wisconsin - Badgers by 14
Colorado at Fresno State - Bulldogs by 34
New Mexico State at UTEP - Miners by 7
(14) Texas at Mississippi - Longhorns by 8
(25) BYU at Utah - Cougars by 7
South Carolina State at (24) Arizona - Wildcats
Houston at (22) UCLA - Bruins by 33
Sunday
Lamar at Hawaii - Warriors
Prediction Results
College Football: 51-21 (.708) 108-39 overall (.735)
Upsets: 4-7 (.364) 6-17 overall (.261)
TW. (LW) Team (Record) Result (AP)
1. (1) Alabama (2-0) W (1)
2. (2) West Virginia (1-0) BYE (9)
3. (3) Kansas State (2-0) W (15)
4. (24) LSU (2-0) W (3)
5. (8) Florida State (2-0) W (5)
6. (4) Ohio State (2-0) W (12)
7. (10) TCU (1-0) W (16)
8. (20) Purdue (1-1) L (NR)
9. (13) UCLA (2-0) W (22)
10. (7) USC (2-0) W (2)
11. (23) Louisville (2-0) W (19)
12. (NR) Mississippi State (2-0) W (30)
13. (15) BYU (2-0) W (25)
14. (9) Notre Dame (2-0) W (20)
15. (12) Nebraska (1-1) L (28)
16. (NR) Arizona State (2-0) W (38)
17. (NR) Cincinnati (1-0) W (NR)
18. (17) Baylor (1-0) BYE (31)
19. (NR) Louisiana-Lafayette (2-0) W (NR)
20. (21) Wisconsin (1-1) L (32)
21. (NR) Georgia (2-0) W (7)
22. (18) Oregon State (1-0) W (29)
23. (NR) Tennessee (2-0) W (23)
24. (NR) Louisiana-Monroe (1-0) W (33)
25. (NR) Iowa State (2-0) W (39)
Dropped from Rankings
(6) South Carolina (2-0) W (8)
(11) Air Force (1-1) L (NR)
(16) Texas (2-0) W (14)
(22) Oregon (2-0) W (4)
(5) Utah (1-1) L (NR)
(25) Vanderbilt (0-2) L (NR)
(14) Missouri (1-1) L (NR)
(19) Oklahoma State (1-1) L (36)
Ranked Teams by Conference
SEC - 5
Big 12 - 5
Pac 12 - 4
Big 10 - 4
Big East - 2
Ind - 2
Sun Belt - 2
ACC - 1
LSU finally did enough to prove that they might still be the same Tigers that finished the regular season undefeated last season after a 41-3 blowout of the Washington Huskies. Their previous win over North Texas didn't tell us anything about them, and their next win over Idaho won't help much either, but once October starts we'll really see if LSU can contend again this year.
Arizona State looked unstoppable at times in their easy victory over Illinois on Saturday night, scoring on 4 of their first 5 possessions and putting the game away by halftime. It was a good warmup for this week's game against Missouri, and if they win that one they will most likely be 6-0 when Oregon comes to town on October 18. College GameDay anyone?
Louisiana-Monroe may have grabbed the headlines with their upset of the #8 Razorbacks, but their in-state rivals, Louisiana-Lafayette, may be just as good. Both are undefeated so far, and both won tough road games over the weekend, but both are still picked to lose this weekend against AQ foes. I wouldn't be surprised to see another pair of wins for the teams from Louisiana.
Oregon is still undefeated and sitting at #4 in the national polls, but their low strength of schedule has dragged them out of my top 25 for the time being. Neither of their opponents is ranked among the top half of FBS teams, and neither margin of victory was as impressive as it should have been, and a visit from Tennessee Tech this weekend isn't going to help much either.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Thursday
Rutgers at South Florida - Bulls by 23
Friday
Washington State at UNLV - Cougars by 15
Saturday
Wake Forest at (5) Florida State - Seminoles by 28
Western Michigan at Minnesota - Golden Gophers by 12
Arkansas State at Nebraska - Cornhuskers by 35
California at (12) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 37
Louisiana-Lafayette at Oklahoma State - Ragin Cajuns by 24
(13) Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh - Hokies by 7
Northern Illinois at Army - Huskies by 35
Charleston Southern at Illinois - Fighting Illini
(16) TCU at Kansas - Horned Frogs by 34
Bethune-Cookman at Miami - Hurricanes
Eastern Michigan at Purdue - Boilermakers by 39
Louisiana-Monroe at Auburn - Warhawks by 3
Connecticut at Maryland - Huskies by 1
Presbyterian at Vanderbilt - Commodores
Furman at (11) Clemson - Tigers
Tennessee Tech at Oregon - Ducks
(1) Alabama at Arkansas - Crimson Tide by 28
Virginia at Georgia Tech - Yellowjackets by 22
Boston College at Northwestern - Wildcats by 23
North Carolina at (19) Louisville - Cardinals by 20
Massachusetts at (17) Michigan - Wolverines by 57
Navy at Penn State - Nittany Lions by 14
Morgan State at Akron - Zips
Northern Iowa at Iowa - Hawkeyes
Texas A&M at SMU - Mustangs by 10
East Carolina at Southern Miss - Golden Eagles by 21
Stony Brook at Syracuse - Orange
Portland State at Washington - Huskies
Florida International at UCF - Knights by 55
Miami-Ohio at Boise State - Broncos by 28
James Madison vs. (9) West Virginia - Mountaineers
South Alabama at North Carolina State - Wolfpack by 54
Texas-San Antonio at Georgia State - Roadrunners
(18) Florida at (23) Tennessee - Volunteers by 28
Cal Poly at Wyoming - Cowboys
Ohio at Marshall - Thundering Herd by 8
Western Kentucky at Kentucky - Wildcats by 2
North Carolina Central at Duke - Blue Devils
Nicholls State at Tulsa - Golden Hurricane
Arizona State at Missouri - Sun Devils by 23
Middle Tennessee at Memphis - Tigers by 18
Delaware State at Cincinnati - Bearcats
North Texas at (15) Kansas State - Wildcats by 29
Rice at Louisiana Tech - Bulldogs by 19
UAB at (8) South Carolina - Gamecocks by 34
New Mexico at Texas Tech - Red Raiders by 46
Bowling Green at Toledo - Rockets by 23
Mississippi State at Troy - Bulldogs by 15
Sam Houston State at Baylor - Bears
Northwestern State at Nevada - Wolf Pack
(2) USC at (21) Stanford - Trojans by 5
Florida Atlantic at (7) Georgia - Bulldogs by 53
North Dakota at San Diego State - Aztecs
Colorado State at San Jose State - Spartans by 45
Western Illinois at Iowa State - Cyclones
Ball State at Indiana - Hoosiers by 17
Idaho at (3) LSU - Tigers by 50
(20) Notre Dame at (10) Michigan State - Fighting Irish by 11
Utah State at Wisconsin - Badgers by 14
Colorado at Fresno State - Bulldogs by 34
New Mexico State at UTEP - Miners by 7
(14) Texas at Mississippi - Longhorns by 8
(25) BYU at Utah - Cougars by 7
South Carolina State at (24) Arizona - Wildcats
Houston at (22) UCLA - Bruins by 33
Sunday
Lamar at Hawaii - Warriors
Prediction Results
College Football: 51-21 (.708) 108-39 overall (.735)
Upsets: 4-7 (.364) 6-17 overall (.261)
Wednesday, September 5, 2012
College Football Rankings - 5 Sep
Week 1 has come and gone, and we have learned a bit about some teams, although the huge number of cupcakes on the schedule kept us in the dark about many teams' potential. The performance of the week belonged to Alabama, which destroyed fellow top-10 Michigan on a neutral field without breaking a sweat, earning the defending champs a lot of respect and the top spot in this week's rankings. Here are the top 25 teams as of today, with each team's ESPN ranking in parentheses after its record.
TW. (LW) Team (Record) (ESPN)
1. (3) Alabama (1-0) (1)
2. (4) West Virginia (1-0) (8)
3. (1) Kansas State (1-0) (20)
4. (NR) Ohio State (1-0) (NR)
5. (8) Utah (1-0) (30)
6. (19) South Carolina (1-0) (9)
7. (2) USC (1-0) (2)
8. (10) Florida State (1-0) (6)
9. (20) Notre Dame (1-0) (22)
10. (11) TCU (0-0) (17)
11. (12) Air Force (1-0) (NR)
12. (9) Nebraska (1-0) (14)
13. (NR) UCLA (1-0) (NR)
14. (15) Missouri (1-0) (32)
15. (NR) BYU (1-0) (27)
16. (7) Texas (1-0) (15)
17. (NR) Baylor (1-0) (28)
18. (21) Oregon State (0-0) (NR)
19. (22) Oklahoma State (1-0) (16)
20. (23) Purdue (1-0) (NR)
21. (NR) Wisconsin (1-0) (13)
22. (NR) Oregon (1-0) (4)
23. (NR) Louisville (1-0) (24)
24. (16) LSU (1-0) (3)
25. (14) Vanderbilt (0-1) (44)
Dropped from Rankings
(6) Michigan (0-1) (19)
(5) Oklahoma (1-0) (5)
(17) Clemson (1-0) (12)
(25) Rutgers (1-0) (45)
(13) California (0-1) (NR)
(24) SMU (0-1) (NR)
(18) Pittsburgh (0-1) (NR)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Big 12 - 6
SEC - 5
Pac 12 - 5
Big 10 - 4
Ind - 2
ACC - 1
MWC - 1
Big East - 1
Alabama vs. Michigan was supposed to be the marquee matchup of the opening weekend, but after the Crimson Tide raced out to a 31-0 lead, it became obvious that they were on a different level than Michigan, and perhaps every other team in the nation. Their amazing performance vaulted them to #1 in both national polls as well as my rankings, although a couple of games against weak opponents could lower their strength of schedule enough to crown a new #1 next week.
It's hard to believe that Ohio State was down 3-0 entering the second quarter against Miami of Ohio, but maybe it just took 15 minutes for the players to get used to running Urban Meyer's offense. They ended up scoring 8 touchdowns over the final 3 quarters, and allowed the RedHawks just one more score late in the third quarter, making them the best ineligible team since USC last year.
The only team with a losing record to appear in my rankings this week is Vanderbilt, and that is due to the way they fought a very good South Carolina team before losing late in the fourth quarter. South Carolina was aided by a missed pass interference call that cost Vanderbilt possession of the ball and their potential game-winning drive, but Vanderbilt should still finish the season far above the expectations of most experts.
Oklahoma's drop from the rankings may be a bit of a surprise, but after they nearly lost to UTEP, which hasn't had a winning season since 2005, going into halftime tied at 7 and giving up multiple blocked kicks to a team that is not known for its defense. They'll need to perform much better against Florida A&M next week if they want to even have a chance to get back in the conversation this year.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Thursday
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati - Bearcats
Friday
Utah at Utah State - Utes by 27
Saturday
North Carolina State at Connecticut - Huskies by 6
New Hampshire at Minnesota - Golden Gophers
UCF at Ohio State - Buckeyes by 28
Tulane at Tulsa - Golden Hurricane by 14
Maryland at Temple - Owls by 18
Penn State at Virginia - Cavaliers by 20
Auburn at Mississippi State - Bulldogs by 1
Miami at (20) Kansas State - Wildcats by 36
East Carolina at (9) South Carolina - Gamecocks by 45
Ball State at (12) Clemson - Tigers by 11
Maine at Boston College - Golden Eagles
Southern Illinois at Miami-Ohio - RedHawks
Illinois State at Eastern Michigan - Eagles
Austin Peay at (18) Virginia Tech - Hokies
Texas A&M-Commerce at Texas-San Antonio - Roadrunners
Southern Utah at California - Golden Bears
Sacramento State at Colorado - Buffaloes
North Carolina at Wake Forest - Tar Heels by 6
Weber State at BYU - Cougars
Eastern Washington at Washington State - Cougars
Purdue at (22) Notre Dame - Fighting Irish by 11
Missouri State at (24) Louisville - Cardinals
Indiana at Massachusetts - Hoosiers by 12
Air Force at (19) Michigan - Falcons by 3
Howard at Rutgers - Scarlet Knights
(2) USC at Syracuse - Trojans by 33
(23) Florida at Texas A&M - Aggies by 9
Western Kentucky at (1) Alabama - Crimson Tide by 50
(11) Michigan State at Central Michigan - Chippewas by 3
Iowa State at Iowa - Cyclones by 16
Rice at Kansas - Owls by 12
South Florida at Nevada - Wolf Pack by 1
(15) Wisconsin at Oregon State - Beavers by 7
Georgia State at Tennessee - Volunteers
Toledo at Wyoming - Cowboys by 21
Nicholls State at South Alabama - Jaguars
Savannah State at (6) Florida State - Seminoles
Morgan State at Buffalo - Bulls
Akron at Florida International - Golden Panthers by 24
Fresno State at (4) Oregon - Ducks by 20
North Dakota State at Colorado State - Rams
Presbyterian at Georgia Tech - Yellowjackets
Washington at (3) LSU - Tigers by 29
UTEP at Mississippi - Rebels by 2
Idaho at Bowling Green - Falcons by 36
New Mexico State at Ohio - Bobcats by 53
Florida A&M at (5) Oklahoma - Sooners
Texas Southern at North Texas - Mean Green
West Carolina at Marshall - Thundering Herd
Texas Tech at Texas State - Red Raiders by 49
Memphis at Arkansas State - Red Wolves by 47
Florida Atlantic at Middle Tennessee - Owls by 8
Louisiana-Monroe at (10) Arkansas - Razorbacks by 9
Tennessee-Martin at Northern Illinois - Huskies
Grambling State at (17) TCU - Horned Frogs
Louisiana-Lafayette at Troy - Trojans by 4
Eastern Illinois at Western Michigan - Broncos
Army at San Diego State - Black Knights by 5
(14) Nebraska at UCLA - Bruins by 5
Kent State at Kentucky - Wildcats by 17
(7) Georgia at Missouri - Tigers by 23
UC-Davis at San Jose State - Spartans
Vanderbilt at Northwestern - Commodores by 18
Louisiana Tech at Houston - Bulldogs by 9
New Mexico at (15) Texas - Longhorns by 67
Stephen F Austin at SMU - Mustangs
Northern Arizona at UNLV - Rebels
(16) Oklahoma State at Arizona - Cowboys by 22
Duke at (21) Stanford - Cardinal by 3
Illinois at Arizona State - Fighting Illini by 7
Prediction Results
College Football: 57-18 (.760)
Upsets: 2-10 (.167)
TW. (LW) Team (Record) (ESPN)
1. (3) Alabama (1-0) (1)
2. (4) West Virginia (1-0) (8)
3. (1) Kansas State (1-0) (20)
4. (NR) Ohio State (1-0) (NR)
5. (8) Utah (1-0) (30)
6. (19) South Carolina (1-0) (9)
7. (2) USC (1-0) (2)
8. (10) Florida State (1-0) (6)
9. (20) Notre Dame (1-0) (22)
10. (11) TCU (0-0) (17)
11. (12) Air Force (1-0) (NR)
12. (9) Nebraska (1-0) (14)
13. (NR) UCLA (1-0) (NR)
14. (15) Missouri (1-0) (32)
15. (NR) BYU (1-0) (27)
16. (7) Texas (1-0) (15)
17. (NR) Baylor (1-0) (28)
18. (21) Oregon State (0-0) (NR)
19. (22) Oklahoma State (1-0) (16)
20. (23) Purdue (1-0) (NR)
21. (NR) Wisconsin (1-0) (13)
22. (NR) Oregon (1-0) (4)
23. (NR) Louisville (1-0) (24)
24. (16) LSU (1-0) (3)
25. (14) Vanderbilt (0-1) (44)
Dropped from Rankings
(6) Michigan (0-1) (19)
(5) Oklahoma (1-0) (5)
(17) Clemson (1-0) (12)
(25) Rutgers (1-0) (45)
(13) California (0-1) (NR)
(24) SMU (0-1) (NR)
(18) Pittsburgh (0-1) (NR)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Big 12 - 6
SEC - 5
Pac 12 - 5
Big 10 - 4
Ind - 2
ACC - 1
MWC - 1
Big East - 1
Alabama vs. Michigan was supposed to be the marquee matchup of the opening weekend, but after the Crimson Tide raced out to a 31-0 lead, it became obvious that they were on a different level than Michigan, and perhaps every other team in the nation. Their amazing performance vaulted them to #1 in both national polls as well as my rankings, although a couple of games against weak opponents could lower their strength of schedule enough to crown a new #1 next week.
It's hard to believe that Ohio State was down 3-0 entering the second quarter against Miami of Ohio, but maybe it just took 15 minutes for the players to get used to running Urban Meyer's offense. They ended up scoring 8 touchdowns over the final 3 quarters, and allowed the RedHawks just one more score late in the third quarter, making them the best ineligible team since USC last year.
The only team with a losing record to appear in my rankings this week is Vanderbilt, and that is due to the way they fought a very good South Carolina team before losing late in the fourth quarter. South Carolina was aided by a missed pass interference call that cost Vanderbilt possession of the ball and their potential game-winning drive, but Vanderbilt should still finish the season far above the expectations of most experts.
Oklahoma's drop from the rankings may be a bit of a surprise, but after they nearly lost to UTEP, which hasn't had a winning season since 2005, going into halftime tied at 7 and giving up multiple blocked kicks to a team that is not known for its defense. They'll need to perform much better against Florida A&M next week if they want to even have a chance to get back in the conversation this year.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Thursday
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati - Bearcats
Friday
Utah at Utah State - Utes by 27
Saturday
North Carolina State at Connecticut - Huskies by 6
New Hampshire at Minnesota - Golden Gophers
UCF at Ohio State - Buckeyes by 28
Tulane at Tulsa - Golden Hurricane by 14
Maryland at Temple - Owls by 18
Penn State at Virginia - Cavaliers by 20
Auburn at Mississippi State - Bulldogs by 1
Miami at (20) Kansas State - Wildcats by 36
East Carolina at (9) South Carolina - Gamecocks by 45
Ball State at (12) Clemson - Tigers by 11
Maine at Boston College - Golden Eagles
Southern Illinois at Miami-Ohio - RedHawks
Illinois State at Eastern Michigan - Eagles
Austin Peay at (18) Virginia Tech - Hokies
Texas A&M-Commerce at Texas-San Antonio - Roadrunners
Southern Utah at California - Golden Bears
Sacramento State at Colorado - Buffaloes
North Carolina at Wake Forest - Tar Heels by 6
Weber State at BYU - Cougars
Eastern Washington at Washington State - Cougars
Purdue at (22) Notre Dame - Fighting Irish by 11
Missouri State at (24) Louisville - Cardinals
Indiana at Massachusetts - Hoosiers by 12
Air Force at (19) Michigan - Falcons by 3
Howard at Rutgers - Scarlet Knights
(2) USC at Syracuse - Trojans by 33
(23) Florida at Texas A&M - Aggies by 9
Western Kentucky at (1) Alabama - Crimson Tide by 50
(11) Michigan State at Central Michigan - Chippewas by 3
Iowa State at Iowa - Cyclones by 16
Rice at Kansas - Owls by 12
South Florida at Nevada - Wolf Pack by 1
(15) Wisconsin at Oregon State - Beavers by 7
Georgia State at Tennessee - Volunteers
Toledo at Wyoming - Cowboys by 21
Nicholls State at South Alabama - Jaguars
Savannah State at (6) Florida State - Seminoles
Morgan State at Buffalo - Bulls
Akron at Florida International - Golden Panthers by 24
Fresno State at (4) Oregon - Ducks by 20
North Dakota State at Colorado State - Rams
Presbyterian at Georgia Tech - Yellowjackets
Washington at (3) LSU - Tigers by 29
UTEP at Mississippi - Rebels by 2
Idaho at Bowling Green - Falcons by 36
New Mexico State at Ohio - Bobcats by 53
Florida A&M at (5) Oklahoma - Sooners
Texas Southern at North Texas - Mean Green
West Carolina at Marshall - Thundering Herd
Texas Tech at Texas State - Red Raiders by 49
Memphis at Arkansas State - Red Wolves by 47
Florida Atlantic at Middle Tennessee - Owls by 8
Louisiana-Monroe at (10) Arkansas - Razorbacks by 9
Tennessee-Martin at Northern Illinois - Huskies
Grambling State at (17) TCU - Horned Frogs
Louisiana-Lafayette at Troy - Trojans by 4
Eastern Illinois at Western Michigan - Broncos
Army at San Diego State - Black Knights by 5
(14) Nebraska at UCLA - Bruins by 5
Kent State at Kentucky - Wildcats by 17
(7) Georgia at Missouri - Tigers by 23
UC-Davis at San Jose State - Spartans
Vanderbilt at Northwestern - Commodores by 18
Louisiana Tech at Houston - Bulldogs by 9
New Mexico at (15) Texas - Longhorns by 67
Stephen F Austin at SMU - Mustangs
Northern Arizona at UNLV - Rebels
(16) Oklahoma State at Arizona - Cowboys by 22
Duke at (21) Stanford - Cardinal by 3
Illinois at Arizona State - Fighting Illini by 7
Prediction Results
College Football: 57-18 (.760)
Upsets: 2-10 (.167)
Monday, September 3, 2012
NFL Preview and Predictions
The NFL season opens on Wednesday, when the Dallas Cowboys visit the defending-champion New York Giants, which kicks off 5 straight months of professional football leading up to the biggest day in sports, the Super Bowl. After analyzing each team's performance from last season along with all of its offseason roster moves, I have created a preliminary ranking of all 32 teams, along with projections of which teams will make the playoffs and who will end up in the Super Bowl next February in New Orleans. Each team is listed with last year's final ranking and record, along with their projected final record for this season.
TW. (LW) Team (2011 Record) 2012 Projection
1. (1) New Orleans (13-3) 16-0
2. (5) San Francisco (13-3) 13-3
3. (7) Baltimore (12-4) 14-2
4. (2) New England (13-3) 12-4
5. (20) Chicago (8-8) 12-4
6. (3) Philadelphia (8-8) 10-6
7. (16) NY Jets (8-8) 10-6
8. (23) Buffalo (6-10) 10-6
9. (11) Seattle (7-9) 10-6
10. (8) Detroit (10-6) 10-6
11. (6) Green Bay (15-1) 9-7
12. (28) Denver (8-8) 9-7
13. (12) Dallas (8-8) 9-7
14. (9) Houston (10-6) 9-7
15. (13) Atlanta (10-6) 9-7
16. (17) Carolina (6-10) 8-8
17. (4) NY Giants (9-7) 7-9
18. (19) Cincinnati (9-7) 9-7
19. (15) San Diego (8-8) 10-6
20. (14) Miami (6-10) 8-8
21. (21) Tennessee (9-7) 9-7
22. (10) Pittsburgh (12-4) 9-7
23. (18) Arizona (8-8) 6-10
24. (22) Washington (5-11) 7-9
25. (24) Cleveland (4-12) 5-11
26. (26) Minnesota (3-13) 3-13
27. (32) Tampa Bay (4-12) 5-11
28. (25) Jacksonville (5-11) 3-13
29. (31) Saint Louis (2-14) 1-15
30. (29) Kansas City (7-9) 1-15
31. (27) Oakland (8-8) 2-14
32. (30) Indianapolis (2-14) 1-15
Playoff Predictions
First Round
Eagles over Seahawks
Bears over Lions
Bills over Chargers
Texans over Jets
Second Round
Saints over Eagles
49ers over Bears
Patriots over Texans
Ravens over Bills
Conference Championships
Saints over 49ers
Ravens over Patriots
Super Bowl
Saints over Ravens
New Orleans is in position to become the first team to ever play in the Super Bowl on its home field, and with a schedule that is very favorable, they could even become only the third team to finish the regular season without a loss. Even with the big scandal during the offseason and the accompanying suspensions, the Saints were still able to bring back all of their important players from a team that finished 13-3, and they still have several players left from their Super Bowl team three years ago.
One of the most improved teams this offseason is the Chicago Bears, who brought in solid players at multiple positions, including Jason Campbell to back up Jay Cutler at quarterback and Brandon Marshall to strengthen the receiving corps. The Bears nearly made the playoffs last season, so with the new additions they should challenge for the division title.
It is becoming quite common for one of the teams that played in the Super Bowl to miss the playoffs the following season, and since the Patriots never miss the playoffs, logic dictates that the Giants, who were the final team to make the playoffs last year, will be that team, despite the shiny new trophy in its case. They lost Brandon Jacobs to free agency, and their championship earned them a more difficult schedule for the upcoming season, including games against San Francisco, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Green Bay, Baltimore,and Cincinnati, in addition to the difficult divisional schedule.
The Indianapolis Colts are opening the season without any quarterback on their roster who took a professional snap last season, which is unheard of in recent memory. Even with top pick Andrew Luck taking the snaps, don't expect to see much improvement from a team that didn't win a game until late December last year. Put a full season under his belt and then we'll see if Luck can get Indianapolis back to the playoffs.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Wednesday
Dallas at NY Giants - Giants by 2
Sunday
Indianapolis at Chicago - Bears by 36
Philadelphia at Cleveland - Eagles by 13
Saint Louis at Detroit - Lions by 25
New England at Tennessee - Patriots by 8
Atlanta at Kansas City - Falcons by 20
Jacksonville at Minnesota - Vikings by 5
Washington at New Orleans - Saints by 28
Buffalo at NY Jets - Jets by 4
Miami at Houston - Texans by 8
Seattle at Arizona - Seahawks by 2
San Francisco at Green Bay - 49ers by 8
Carolina at Tampa Bay - Panthers by 9
Pittsburgh at Denver - Broncos by 8
Monday
Cincinnati at Baltimore - Ravens by 15
San Diego at Oakland - Chargers by 18
TW. (LW) Team (2011 Record) 2012 Projection
1. (1) New Orleans (13-3) 16-0
2. (5) San Francisco (13-3) 13-3
3. (7) Baltimore (12-4) 14-2
4. (2) New England (13-3) 12-4
5. (20) Chicago (8-8) 12-4
6. (3) Philadelphia (8-8) 10-6
7. (16) NY Jets (8-8) 10-6
8. (23) Buffalo (6-10) 10-6
9. (11) Seattle (7-9) 10-6
10. (8) Detroit (10-6) 10-6
11. (6) Green Bay (15-1) 9-7
12. (28) Denver (8-8) 9-7
13. (12) Dallas (8-8) 9-7
14. (9) Houston (10-6) 9-7
15. (13) Atlanta (10-6) 9-7
16. (17) Carolina (6-10) 8-8
17. (4) NY Giants (9-7) 7-9
18. (19) Cincinnati (9-7) 9-7
19. (15) San Diego (8-8) 10-6
20. (14) Miami (6-10) 8-8
21. (21) Tennessee (9-7) 9-7
22. (10) Pittsburgh (12-4) 9-7
23. (18) Arizona (8-8) 6-10
24. (22) Washington (5-11) 7-9
25. (24) Cleveland (4-12) 5-11
26. (26) Minnesota (3-13) 3-13
27. (32) Tampa Bay (4-12) 5-11
28. (25) Jacksonville (5-11) 3-13
29. (31) Saint Louis (2-14) 1-15
30. (29) Kansas City (7-9) 1-15
31. (27) Oakland (8-8) 2-14
32. (30) Indianapolis (2-14) 1-15
Playoff Predictions
First Round
Eagles over Seahawks
Bears over Lions
Bills over Chargers
Texans over Jets
Second Round
Saints over Eagles
49ers over Bears
Patriots over Texans
Ravens over Bills
Conference Championships
Saints over 49ers
Ravens over Patriots
Super Bowl
Saints over Ravens
New Orleans is in position to become the first team to ever play in the Super Bowl on its home field, and with a schedule that is very favorable, they could even become only the third team to finish the regular season without a loss. Even with the big scandal during the offseason and the accompanying suspensions, the Saints were still able to bring back all of their important players from a team that finished 13-3, and they still have several players left from their Super Bowl team three years ago.
One of the most improved teams this offseason is the Chicago Bears, who brought in solid players at multiple positions, including Jason Campbell to back up Jay Cutler at quarterback and Brandon Marshall to strengthen the receiving corps. The Bears nearly made the playoffs last season, so with the new additions they should challenge for the division title.
It is becoming quite common for one of the teams that played in the Super Bowl to miss the playoffs the following season, and since the Patriots never miss the playoffs, logic dictates that the Giants, who were the final team to make the playoffs last year, will be that team, despite the shiny new trophy in its case. They lost Brandon Jacobs to free agency, and their championship earned them a more difficult schedule for the upcoming season, including games against San Francisco, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Green Bay, Baltimore,and Cincinnati, in addition to the difficult divisional schedule.
The Indianapolis Colts are opening the season without any quarterback on their roster who took a professional snap last season, which is unheard of in recent memory. Even with top pick Andrew Luck taking the snaps, don't expect to see much improvement from a team that didn't win a game until late December last year. Put a full season under his belt and then we'll see if Luck can get Indianapolis back to the playoffs.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Wednesday
Dallas at NY Giants - Giants by 2
Sunday
Indianapolis at Chicago - Bears by 36
Philadelphia at Cleveland - Eagles by 13
Saint Louis at Detroit - Lions by 25
New England at Tennessee - Patriots by 8
Atlanta at Kansas City - Falcons by 20
Jacksonville at Minnesota - Vikings by 5
Washington at New Orleans - Saints by 28
Buffalo at NY Jets - Jets by 4
Miami at Houston - Texans by 8
Seattle at Arizona - Seahawks by 2
San Francisco at Green Bay - 49ers by 8
Carolina at Tampa Bay - Panthers by 9
Pittsburgh at Denver - Broncos by 8
Monday
Cincinnati at Baltimore - Ravens by 15
San Diego at Oakland - Chargers by 18
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