As you may be aware, today is the Super Bowl, and if you're not aware, you probably don't own a television or computer, in which case you're not reading this anyway. Today's game is a rematch of one of the biggest upsets in Super Bowl history, when Eli Manning and the New York Giants gave Tom Brady and New England their only loss in an otherwise perfect season in the biggest game of the year. Four years have passed since that game, and neither has been back to the Super Bowl until now. Here is my breakdown of the game.
Margin of Victory
First 75% of season - NE: +10.5, NYG: -1.3
Last 25% of season - NE: +13.8, NYG: +14.8
The above numbers are adjusted for home field advantage, which has tended to lean about 3.5 points toward the home team in the NFL for as long as I've been crunching the numbers. This shows that New England had a clear advantage in the early part of the season, but New York had a slight advantage toward the end, although the Patriots have been pretty impressive themselves. To bring momentum into my formula, I adjust it so that the first 75% of the season is worth 60% of a team's overall score, with the final quarter accounting for 40%. This adjustment gives us:
Adjusted MoV - NE: +11.8, NYG: +5.1
Advantage: Patriots
Momentum
I mentioned this a little bit above, but there really is something to be said about a team getting hot at the right time. New England has been pretty steady all year long, while the Giants rebounded from a rocky start to fight their way into the playoffs. New York has faced the possibility of elimination in 5 straight games, and they were up to the challenge every time. New England clinched a playoff berth early on, earned a first-round bye, then beat up one of the worst playoff teams in history (sorry, Tim Tebow) before dodging a bullet last week as last year's AFC Pro Bowl kicker missed a chip shot field goal that would have forced overtime.
Advantage: Giants
Strength of Schedule
The Giants played what may have been the league's toughest schedule this year, with one five game stretch that began on November 6th proving extremely difficult. Those five games, in order were: at New England, at San Francisco, vs. Philadelphia, at New Orleans, vs. Green Bay. If that group of teams seems familiar, you may recognize them from my final regular season rankings as numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. That's right, they faced the top five teams in the league back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back, without even a bye week to break it up. New England's toughest stretch? vs NY Jets, vs. Dallas, bye, at Pittsburgh, vs. NY Giants, at NY Jets. Not only is that group not a murderer's row, they also got a bye right in the middle to break it up. Both teams saw the majority of their losses in this stretch, but New York's losses were more justifiable.
Advantage: Giants
Regular Season Rematches
It has become quite common to see two teams that played a close game in the regular season meet in the playoffs with the opposite result. For example, LSU and Alabama played a very close, hard-fought regular season game that was won by the Tigers in overtime. I don't think I need to remind you what happened in the national title game. So far, one of New England's playoff opponents has been a foe they saw in the regular season, but the outcome did not change when they faced Denver the second time, because both games were blowouts. The Giants, however, have played two games against teams they also faced in the regular season, Green Bay and San Francisco. They lost one-possession games to each in the regular season, then upset both on the road in the playoffs. They are about to play their third straight game against a regular season opponent. These two teams played on November 6th in New England, with the Giants winning a close game 24-20. If the recent trend holds true, it would be a good thing for New England.
Advantage: Patriots
Prediction
So who do I think will win the big game? According to everything above, it should be a very competitive game. After taking all of that into consideration, and consulting my statistical formula, I predict the winner will be...
New England 27-24
In their rematch against New York, the Patriots will get revenge for the Super Bowl loss 4 years ago, as well as their regular season loss in November, scoring that final touchdown that they didn't have time to get last time these two faced off and earning Rob Gronkowski his first Super Bowl MVP after he shakes off an injured ankle to score two touchdowns, including the game-winner, as the Patriots win their 4th Super Bowl, all with Tom Brady at quarterback.
Prediction Results
NFL: 1-1 (.500) 174-92 overall (.654)
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