Here is the new week's updated NFL rankings. Team name is followed by record, rating and previous ranking.
1. Green Bay (7-4) -11.40 (1)
2. New England (9-2) -10.94 (4)
3. New York Jets (9-2) -9.30 (5)
4. Pittsburgh (8-3) -9.01 (2)
5. San Diego (6-5) -8.34 (11)
6. Atlanta (9-2) -7.32 (8)
7. Baltimore (8-3) -7.17 (6)
8. Philadelphia (7-4) -6.39 (3)
9. Chicago (8-3) -4.60 (10)
10. Miami (6-5) -3.99 (19)
11. Kansas City (7-4) -3.52 (14)
12. Tennessee (5-6) -3.35 (7)
13. Indianapolis (6-5) -3.05 (9)
14. New Orleans (8-3) -2.65 (13)
15. New York Giants (7-4) -2.07 (12)
16. Houston (5-6) -1.53 (21)
17. Detroit (2-9) -0.43 (15)
18. Cleveland (4-7) -0.33 (16)
19. Minnesota (4-7) 0.60 (25)
20. Buffalo (2-9) 0.84 (20)
21. Tampa Bay (7-4) 1.59 (23)
22. Oakland (5-6) 2.03 (22)
23. Washington (5-6) 2.16 (17)
24. Cincinnati (2-9) 2.33 (26)
25. Dallas (3-8) 2.35 (18)
26. Jacksonville (6-5) 3.09 (24)
27. Saint Louis (5-6) 3.49 (28)
28. San Francisco (4-7) 4.73 (30)
29. Denver (3-8) 5.98 (27)
30. Seattle (5-6) 8.55 (29)
31. Carolina (1-10) 10.96 (32)
32. Arizona (3-8) 13.25 (31)
Big risers:
San Diego climbed into the top 10 this week following a dominant win at Indianapolis. They are following the same trend they seem to follow every year, starting out slowly, then streaking toward the playoffs. We'll see if it ends in another early playoff exit.
Miami also picked up a big road win, this one in Oakland, who is much improved over recent years and sitting near the top of their division. Miami also benefits from playing in the same division as two of the top 3 teams.
Minnesota picked up a win in Washington in their first game since Brad Childress was fired. While Washington is not the toughest opponent, it was good for Minnesota to get a win over a team with more than 3 wins on the season.
Big losers:
Tennessee was shut out by a Houston team that has struggled lately, and their downward spiral doesn't appear to be ending soon, with starting quarterback Vince Young out for the season with a thumb injury.
Indianapolis never looked good in its blowout loss to San Diego on Sunday Night Football. Even with their worst record in years, the Colts are still leading their division, but they have no room for error, with all of their division rivals within one game of them.
Arizona was able to knock Carolina from their spot as the worst team in the league, a spot which they had held for 6 straight weeks, by forgetting to play offense again in a big home loss to the San Francisco 49ers, who are also ranked in the bottom 5. Arizona has scored only 14 offensive touchdowns in its 11 games so far, a huge dropoff from 2 seasons with playoff victories.
Prediction results:
NFL: 0/1 (.000) 18/32 overall (.563)
NBA: 3/4 (.750) 45/70 overall (.643)
NBA Predictions - 30 Nov
Celtics at Cavaliers - Celtics by 8
Pistons at Magic - Magic by 13
Blazers at 76ers - 76ers by 1
Nets at Knicks - Knicks by 5
Lakers at Grizzlies - Lakers by 6
Pacers at Kings - Pacers by 10
Spurs at Warriors - Spurs by 10
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Monday, November 29, 2010
NBA Rankings - 29 Nov
3 of the top 4 teams had losing records this week, so there was a lot of movement at the top. The team's name is followed by its record this week, its overall record, its rating, and its previous ranking.
1. San Antonio (3-1) (14-2) -9.14 (3)
2. Boston (3-0) (12-4) -7.16 (5)
3. Dallas (4-0) (12-4) -6.99 (7)
4. Lakers (1-2) (13-4) -6.55 (2)
5. Miami (1-3) (9-8) -6.27 (1)
6. Orlando (3-1) (12-4) -5.12 (6)
7. New Orleans (1-3) (12-4) -4.70 (4)
8. Indiana (3-1) (8-7) -4.66 (11)
9. Chicago (2-2) (9-6) -4.59 (8)
10. Denver (3-0) (10-6) -4.01 (10)
11. Utah (4-0) (13-5) -3.97 (9)
12. Atlanta (3-2) (11-7) -2.64 (16)
13. Oklahoma City (2-2) (11-6) -1.05 (14)
14. Portland (0-2) (8-8) -0.31 (12)
15. Phoenix (2-2) (8-9) 0.03 (17)
16. Milwaukee (1-2) (6-10) 0.13 (13)
17. Charlotte (1-3) (6-11) 0.34 (15)
18. New York (3-1) (9-9) 1.06 (22)
19. Philadelphia (1-3) (4-13) 1.14 (20)
20. Houston (2-2) (5-11) 1.34 (18)
21. Memphis (2-1) (7-10) 1.83 (21)
22. Toronto (1-2) (6-11) 2.81 (19)
23. New Jersey (2-2) (6-11) 2.88 (23)
24. Cleveland (2-2) (7-9) 3.54 (26)
25. Golden State (1-3) (8-9) 3.93 (24)
26. Detroit (1-3) (6-11) 5.14 (25)
27. Washington (1-2) (5-10) 5.99 (28)
28. Clippers (2-2) (3-15) 6.78 (30)
29. Sacramento (0-3) (4-11) 8.63 (27)
30. Minnesota (0-3) (4-13) 8.99 (29)
This week's big climber is the Dallas Mavericks, who won all 4 games this week, including impressive wins over the Spurs and Heat. Their success has thrust Dirk Nowitzki back into the MVP discussion (he's was #3 in my rankings on Friday), and shot them into a tie with the Hornets for 2nd in a tough Southwest Division.
This week's biggest loser is the Miami Heat. They had been at #1, even with their subpar record, but this week they again showed that they cannot beat a team with a winning record, beating only the lowly 76ers, and now there are rumors that the players are tired of their coach, Erik Spoelstra. The 70-win talk from the early season has ended, and it may soon be replaced with wondering whether they will even make the playoffs.
The Utah Jazz are the only team that didn't lose this week but still dropped in the rankings. That is partially because two of the wins were somewhat close games against the Clippers and Kings, who have spent the whole season in the bottom 5, and partially because their two impressive wins came against teams (the Lakers and Hornets) who lost multiple times this week.
NBA Predictions - 29 Nov
Wizards at Heat - Heat by 15
Hornets at Thunder - Hornets by 1
Rockets at Mavericks - Mavericks by 11
Bucks at Jazz - Jazz by 7
Prediction Results - 28 Nov
NBA: 2/8 (.250) 42/66 overall (.636)
NFL: 6/12 (.500) 18/31 overall (.581)
It was a difficult day for picks yesterday. Tonight should get me back on track.
1. San Antonio (3-1) (14-2) -9.14 (3)
2. Boston (3-0) (12-4) -7.16 (5)
3. Dallas (4-0) (12-4) -6.99 (7)
4. Lakers (1-2) (13-4) -6.55 (2)
5. Miami (1-3) (9-8) -6.27 (1)
6. Orlando (3-1) (12-4) -5.12 (6)
7. New Orleans (1-3) (12-4) -4.70 (4)
8. Indiana (3-1) (8-7) -4.66 (11)
9. Chicago (2-2) (9-6) -4.59 (8)
10. Denver (3-0) (10-6) -4.01 (10)
11. Utah (4-0) (13-5) -3.97 (9)
12. Atlanta (3-2) (11-7) -2.64 (16)
13. Oklahoma City (2-2) (11-6) -1.05 (14)
14. Portland (0-2) (8-8) -0.31 (12)
15. Phoenix (2-2) (8-9) 0.03 (17)
16. Milwaukee (1-2) (6-10) 0.13 (13)
17. Charlotte (1-3) (6-11) 0.34 (15)
18. New York (3-1) (9-9) 1.06 (22)
19. Philadelphia (1-3) (4-13) 1.14 (20)
20. Houston (2-2) (5-11) 1.34 (18)
21. Memphis (2-1) (7-10) 1.83 (21)
22. Toronto (1-2) (6-11) 2.81 (19)
23. New Jersey (2-2) (6-11) 2.88 (23)
24. Cleveland (2-2) (7-9) 3.54 (26)
25. Golden State (1-3) (8-9) 3.93 (24)
26. Detroit (1-3) (6-11) 5.14 (25)
27. Washington (1-2) (5-10) 5.99 (28)
28. Clippers (2-2) (3-15) 6.78 (30)
29. Sacramento (0-3) (4-11) 8.63 (27)
30. Minnesota (0-3) (4-13) 8.99 (29)
This week's big climber is the Dallas Mavericks, who won all 4 games this week, including impressive wins over the Spurs and Heat. Their success has thrust Dirk Nowitzki back into the MVP discussion (he's was #3 in my rankings on Friday), and shot them into a tie with the Hornets for 2nd in a tough Southwest Division.
This week's biggest loser is the Miami Heat. They had been at #1, even with their subpar record, but this week they again showed that they cannot beat a team with a winning record, beating only the lowly 76ers, and now there are rumors that the players are tired of their coach, Erik Spoelstra. The 70-win talk from the early season has ended, and it may soon be replaced with wondering whether they will even make the playoffs.
The Utah Jazz are the only team that didn't lose this week but still dropped in the rankings. That is partially because two of the wins were somewhat close games against the Clippers and Kings, who have spent the whole season in the bottom 5, and partially because their two impressive wins came against teams (the Lakers and Hornets) who lost multiple times this week.
NBA Predictions - 29 Nov
Wizards at Heat - Heat by 15
Hornets at Thunder - Hornets by 1
Rockets at Mavericks - Mavericks by 11
Bucks at Jazz - Jazz by 7
Prediction Results - 28 Nov
NBA: 2/8 (.250) 42/66 overall (.636)
NFL: 6/12 (.500) 18/31 overall (.581)
It was a difficult day for picks yesterday. Tonight should get me back on track.
Sunday, November 28, 2010
College Football Rankings - 28 Nov
Disclaimer: This is a ranking of the best teams in college football, not a listing of whom I believe should be included in a championship game. With the current system in place, I believe that a team must win its conference to be included in the title game, which would disqualify both Stanford and Boise State, who are near the top this week. Once again, these rankings are 100% unbiased and based solely on pure statistical facts. The team's name is followed by their record, their rating, and their previous ranking.
1. Oregon (11-0) -44.18 (1)
2. Stanford (11-1) -41.17 (3)
3. Boise State (10-1) -38.87 (2)
4. TCU (12-0) -34.35 (4)
5. Ohio State (11-1) -30.48 (6)
6. Alabama (9-3) -29.89 (5)
7. Auburn (12-0) -28.73 (8)
8. Wisconsin (11-1) -27.79 (10)
9. Oklahoma (10-2) -27.08 (7)
10. South Carolina (9-3) -26.61 (12)
11. Arizona State (5-6) -26.23 (9)
12. Arizona (7-4) -25.55 (16)
13. Florida State (9-3) -25.47 (21)
14. Arkansas (10-2) -24.71 (11)
15. Virginia Tech (10-2) -24.52 (13)
16. Nevada (11-1) -24.22 (24)
17. Nebraska (10-2) -24.18 (17)
18. Oklahoma State (10-2) -23.04 (15)
19. West Virginia (8-3) -22.34 (NR)
20. USC (7-5) -22.30 (20)
21. Texas A&M (9-3) -22.23 (22)
22. Missouri (10-2) -21.99 (18)
23. LSU (10-2) -21.19 (NR)
24. Northern Illinois (10-2) -20.52 (NR)
25. Oregon State (5-6) -20.47 (14)
Dropped from rankings:
26. Florida (7-5) -19.67 (19)
27. Utah (10-2) -19.63 (23)
31. Iowa (7-5) -18.58 (25)
As I mentioned above, the fact that I have Oregon and Stanford in the top 2 spots does not mean that I believe they should play for the national championship. I believe that, as of today, Oregon should face TCU in the title game, although if Auburn does win the SEC, they may have enough points to pass TCU.
Boise State drops only one spot to #3, which makes sense, considering their only loss in on the road against another 1-loss team by 3 points. Nevada made a big move with their upset over Boise, but their earlier loss to Hawaii is what kept them out of BCS contention.
Alabama is still ranked just above Auburn, which may seem odd after the result of Friday's game, but Alabama's 3 losses all came to ranked teams in very competitive games, so they remain highly ranked for the same reason that Boise does.
Florida State made a big move with their huge win over in-state rival Florida, which should make this week's ACC Championship matchup with Virginia Tech a very fun game to watch.
West Virginia gives the Big East its first ranked team in quite a few weeks. Even with their ranking, they are not currently in position to represent the Big East in the BCS, as that would go to Connecticut if the teams were to remain in their current positions.
LSU entered the rankings following a loss, which seems odd, but makes sense, considering that I predicted a much larger loss than actually occurred. LSU has been a classic example of playing to the level of their opponents this year, narrowly escaping against Tennessee and Mississippi, but playing strongly against Auburn, Alabama, and Arkansas.
Northern Illinois also enters the rankings this week after obliterating everyone in the MAC schedule. Even the MAC Championship game should be a laugher this week, with an opponent (Miami-Ohio) ranked at #95 out of 120 teams in these rankings.
Oregon State narrowly remained in the rankings this week after a shutout loss to Stanford, but a victory this week in the Civil War with Oregon would not only move them up in the rankings and ruin Oregon's chance at the National Championship, it would also make the Beavers bowl-eligible, which shouldn't have been an issue at this point in the season with a team this talented.
Florida dropped from the rankings for losing a game against Florida State that should have been close but wasn't, Utah drops because their game against BYU was far too close, and Iowa fell out for losing another game to a team that shouldn't have had a chance against them, much like their loss to Northwestern a couple weeks ago.
NBA Predictions - 28 Nov
Hawks at Raptors - Raptors by 1
Knicks at Pistons - Pistons by 2
Spurs at Hornets - Hornets by 3
Jazz at Clippers - Jazz by 7
Thunder at Rockets - Thunder by 1
Blazers at Nets - Blazers by 1
Suns at Nuggets - Nuggets by 7
Pacers at Lakers - Lakers by 8
Prediction Results - 27 Nov
NBA: 6/7 (.857) 40/58 overall (.690)
College Football: 14/20 (.700) 29/39 overall (.744)
1. Oregon (11-0) -44.18 (1)
2. Stanford (11-1) -41.17 (3)
3. Boise State (10-1) -38.87 (2)
4. TCU (12-0) -34.35 (4)
5. Ohio State (11-1) -30.48 (6)
6. Alabama (9-3) -29.89 (5)
7. Auburn (12-0) -28.73 (8)
8. Wisconsin (11-1) -27.79 (10)
9. Oklahoma (10-2) -27.08 (7)
10. South Carolina (9-3) -26.61 (12)
11. Arizona State (5-6) -26.23 (9)
12. Arizona (7-4) -25.55 (16)
13. Florida State (9-3) -25.47 (21)
14. Arkansas (10-2) -24.71 (11)
15. Virginia Tech (10-2) -24.52 (13)
16. Nevada (11-1) -24.22 (24)
17. Nebraska (10-2) -24.18 (17)
18. Oklahoma State (10-2) -23.04 (15)
19. West Virginia (8-3) -22.34 (NR)
20. USC (7-5) -22.30 (20)
21. Texas A&M (9-3) -22.23 (22)
22. Missouri (10-2) -21.99 (18)
23. LSU (10-2) -21.19 (NR)
24. Northern Illinois (10-2) -20.52 (NR)
25. Oregon State (5-6) -20.47 (14)
Dropped from rankings:
26. Florida (7-5) -19.67 (19)
27. Utah (10-2) -19.63 (23)
31. Iowa (7-5) -18.58 (25)
As I mentioned above, the fact that I have Oregon and Stanford in the top 2 spots does not mean that I believe they should play for the national championship. I believe that, as of today, Oregon should face TCU in the title game, although if Auburn does win the SEC, they may have enough points to pass TCU.
Boise State drops only one spot to #3, which makes sense, considering their only loss in on the road against another 1-loss team by 3 points. Nevada made a big move with their upset over Boise, but their earlier loss to Hawaii is what kept them out of BCS contention.
Alabama is still ranked just above Auburn, which may seem odd after the result of Friday's game, but Alabama's 3 losses all came to ranked teams in very competitive games, so they remain highly ranked for the same reason that Boise does.
Florida State made a big move with their huge win over in-state rival Florida, which should make this week's ACC Championship matchup with Virginia Tech a very fun game to watch.
West Virginia gives the Big East its first ranked team in quite a few weeks. Even with their ranking, they are not currently in position to represent the Big East in the BCS, as that would go to Connecticut if the teams were to remain in their current positions.
LSU entered the rankings following a loss, which seems odd, but makes sense, considering that I predicted a much larger loss than actually occurred. LSU has been a classic example of playing to the level of their opponents this year, narrowly escaping against Tennessee and Mississippi, but playing strongly against Auburn, Alabama, and Arkansas.
Northern Illinois also enters the rankings this week after obliterating everyone in the MAC schedule. Even the MAC Championship game should be a laugher this week, with an opponent (Miami-Ohio) ranked at #95 out of 120 teams in these rankings.
Oregon State narrowly remained in the rankings this week after a shutout loss to Stanford, but a victory this week in the Civil War with Oregon would not only move them up in the rankings and ruin Oregon's chance at the National Championship, it would also make the Beavers bowl-eligible, which shouldn't have been an issue at this point in the season with a team this talented.
Florida dropped from the rankings for losing a game against Florida State that should have been close but wasn't, Utah drops because their game against BYU was far too close, and Iowa fell out for losing another game to a team that shouldn't have had a chance against them, much like their loss to Northwestern a couple weeks ago.
NBA Predictions - 28 Nov
Hawks at Raptors - Raptors by 1
Knicks at Pistons - Pistons by 2
Spurs at Hornets - Hornets by 3
Jazz at Clippers - Jazz by 7
Thunder at Rockets - Thunder by 1
Blazers at Nets - Blazers by 1
Suns at Nuggets - Nuggets by 7
Pacers at Lakers - Lakers by 8
Prediction Results - 27 Nov
NBA: 6/7 (.857) 40/58 overall (.690)
College Football: 14/20 (.700) 29/39 overall (.744)
Saturday, November 27, 2010
NBA Predictions - 27 Nov
Magic at Wizards - Magic by 11
Grizzlies at Cavaliers - Grizzlies by 1
Nets at 76ers - 76ers by 2
Warriors at Timberwolves - Warriors by 1
Heat at Mavericks - Mavericks by 3
Bobcats at Bucks - Bucks by 2
Bulls at Kings - Bulls by 10
Prediction Results - 26 Nov
College Football: 5/9 (0.556) 20/28 overall (0.714)
Grizzlies at Cavaliers - Grizzlies by 1
Nets at 76ers - 76ers by 2
Warriors at Timberwolves - Warriors by 1
Heat at Mavericks - Mavericks by 3
Bobcats at Bucks - Bucks by 2
Bulls at Kings - Bulls by 10
Prediction Results - 26 Nov
College Football: 5/9 (0.556) 20/28 overall (0.714)
Friday, November 26, 2010
NBA MVP Rankings - 26 Nov
Here are my updated MVP rankings based on personal and team performance. The player's name is followed by their previous ranking and season stats. Spaces between groups of players show that there is a performance gap between one group and another.
1. Pau Gasol - LAL (1) 22.1 pts, 12.0 reb, 1.9 blk
2. Kobe Bryant - LAL (2) 25.3 pts, 6.0 reb, 4.8 ast
3. Dirk Nowitzki - DAL (NR) 26.4 pts, 8.4 reb, .536 FG%
4. Kevin Durant - OKC (8) 28.3 pts, 6.8 reb, .932 FT%
5. Carmelo Anthony - DEN (NR) 25.4 pts, 9.1 reb, .874 FT%
6. LeBron James - MIA (3) 23.6 pts, 8.3 ast, 5.3 reb
7. Derrick Rose - CHI (9) 26.3 pts, 8.3 ast, 4.4 reb
8. Russell Westbrook - OKC (4) 22.5 pts, 8.3 ast, 5.0 reb
9. Chris Paul - NOH (7) 16.6 pts, 10.1 ast, 3.1 stl
10. Dwight Howard - ORL (NR) 21.9 pts, 12.1 reb, 2.5 blk
Falling out: Dwyane Wade, Paul Millsap, Monta Ellis
Just outside: Paul Millsap, Deron Williams, Joakim Noah
In his first game after I put him #1 in my rankings, Pau Gasol rewarded me by playing a perfect game. He finished with 28 points, 9 rebounds, 10/10 field goals, and 8/8 free throws against the Warriors, and the Lakers won both of their games this week.
Kobe maintained his #2 ranking this week by scoring 20 in consecutive games as the Lakers extended their winning streak to 5. Kobe may be one of the best players in the league, but Pau is becoming the best player on this team.
Dirk Nowitzki responded to his snub here last week by posting 42 points and 12 rebounds against Detroit and following it up with 34 against Oklahoma City in a pair of wins. The former MVP is looking as strong as ever, and if the Mavs keep winning, look for him to jump Kobe soon.
Even though he missed 2 games this week due to injury, Kevin Durant made a strong move with 28 points and 8 rebounds against Minnesota and 32 points and 11 rebounds in a loss to the Mavericks. The time off clearly helped the league scoring leader.
Carmelo Anthony also makes a strong entry into the top 10 this week at #5, following a week that was punctuated with a 39-point, 9-rebound game against the Warriors. It's looking like all the trade talk isn't affecting him much.
LeBron scored 25 or more in 3 straight games this week, but the Heat dropped all 3 and James followed suit, dropping 3 spots in the rankings. He was clearly the best player on the court this week, but he needs more help to make Miami competitive.
Derrick Rose moves up 2 spots after a very impressive week, which he finished with 35 points, 12 rebounds, and 7 assists in a big comeback win against Phoenix. It's been a quick rise for Rose from Rookie of the Year to All-Star to MVP candidate.
Russell Westbrook performed well (20 points, 14 assists) in a win over Minnesota, but his 13 points in a loss to Dallas cost him, and he swapped places with teammate Kevin Durant in the rankings this week as a result.
Chris Paul had fewer than 10 assists in consecutive games, and the Hornets lost both, dropping them behind the Spurs in the standings. Paul must perform better this week to avoid being dropped from the rankings completely.
Dwight Howard sneaks into the rankings in the #10 spot after a very solid and consistent week in which he averaged 25 points and 16 rebounds over 3 games, with the only loss coming to the top-ranked Spurs.
Prediction results
NBA: 5/6 (0.833) 34/51 overall (0.667)
NFL: 2/3 (0.667) 12/19 overall (0.632)
College Football: 1/2 (0.500) 15/19 overall (0.789)
1. Pau Gasol - LAL (1) 22.1 pts, 12.0 reb, 1.9 blk
2. Kobe Bryant - LAL (2) 25.3 pts, 6.0 reb, 4.8 ast
3. Dirk Nowitzki - DAL (NR) 26.4 pts, 8.4 reb, .536 FG%
4. Kevin Durant - OKC (8) 28.3 pts, 6.8 reb, .932 FT%
5. Carmelo Anthony - DEN (NR) 25.4 pts, 9.1 reb, .874 FT%
6. LeBron James - MIA (3) 23.6 pts, 8.3 ast, 5.3 reb
7. Derrick Rose - CHI (9) 26.3 pts, 8.3 ast, 4.4 reb
8. Russell Westbrook - OKC (4) 22.5 pts, 8.3 ast, 5.0 reb
9. Chris Paul - NOH (7) 16.6 pts, 10.1 ast, 3.1 stl
10. Dwight Howard - ORL (NR) 21.9 pts, 12.1 reb, 2.5 blk
Falling out: Dwyane Wade, Paul Millsap, Monta Ellis
Just outside: Paul Millsap, Deron Williams, Joakim Noah
In his first game after I put him #1 in my rankings, Pau Gasol rewarded me by playing a perfect game. He finished with 28 points, 9 rebounds, 10/10 field goals, and 8/8 free throws against the Warriors, and the Lakers won both of their games this week.
Kobe maintained his #2 ranking this week by scoring 20 in consecutive games as the Lakers extended their winning streak to 5. Kobe may be one of the best players in the league, but Pau is becoming the best player on this team.
Dirk Nowitzki responded to his snub here last week by posting 42 points and 12 rebounds against Detroit and following it up with 34 against Oklahoma City in a pair of wins. The former MVP is looking as strong as ever, and if the Mavs keep winning, look for him to jump Kobe soon.
Even though he missed 2 games this week due to injury, Kevin Durant made a strong move with 28 points and 8 rebounds against Minnesota and 32 points and 11 rebounds in a loss to the Mavericks. The time off clearly helped the league scoring leader.
Carmelo Anthony also makes a strong entry into the top 10 this week at #5, following a week that was punctuated with a 39-point, 9-rebound game against the Warriors. It's looking like all the trade talk isn't affecting him much.
LeBron scored 25 or more in 3 straight games this week, but the Heat dropped all 3 and James followed suit, dropping 3 spots in the rankings. He was clearly the best player on the court this week, but he needs more help to make Miami competitive.
Derrick Rose moves up 2 spots after a very impressive week, which he finished with 35 points, 12 rebounds, and 7 assists in a big comeback win against Phoenix. It's been a quick rise for Rose from Rookie of the Year to All-Star to MVP candidate.
Russell Westbrook performed well (20 points, 14 assists) in a win over Minnesota, but his 13 points in a loss to Dallas cost him, and he swapped places with teammate Kevin Durant in the rankings this week as a result.
Chris Paul had fewer than 10 assists in consecutive games, and the Hornets lost both, dropping them behind the Spurs in the standings. Paul must perform better this week to avoid being dropped from the rankings completely.
Dwight Howard sneaks into the rankings in the #10 spot after a very solid and consistent week in which he averaged 25 points and 16 rebounds over 3 games, with the only loss coming to the top-ranked Spurs.
Prediction results
NBA: 5/6 (0.833) 34/51 overall (0.667)
NFL: 2/3 (0.667) 12/19 overall (0.632)
College Football: 1/2 (0.500) 15/19 overall (0.789)
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Predictions - 23 Nov
NBA Predictions - 23 Nov
Cavaliers at Pacers - Pacers by 14
Hawks at Nets - Nets by 1
76ers at Wizards - 76ers by 3
Bobcats at Knicks - Knicks by 1
Pistons at Mavericks - Mavericks by 13
Bulls at Lakers - Lakers by 7
College Football Predictions - 23-27 Nov
Temple at Miami (Ohio) - Temple by 8
(17) Texas A&M at Texas - Texas A&M by 7
(21) Arizona at (1) Oregon - Oregon by 26
(2) Auburn at (11) Alabama - Alabama by 10
(4) Boise State at (19) Nevada - Boise State by 15
Colorado at (15) Nebraska - Nebraska by 24
West Virginia at Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh by 7
Ohio at Kent State - Ohio by 7
UCLA at Arizona State - Arizona State by 22
Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan - Northern Illinois by 27
Southern Miss at Tulsa - Tulsa by 6
(3) TCU at New Mexico - TCU by 47
(5) LSU at (12) Arkansas - Arkansas by 11
Oregon State at (6) Stanford - Stanford by 21
Northwestern at (7) Wisconsin - Wisconsin by 28
Michigan at (8) Ohio State - Ohio State by 25
(13) Oklahoma at (9) Oklahoma State - Oklahoma State by 2
(10) Michigan State at Penn State - Penn State by 4
Kansas at (14) Missouri - Missouri by 39
Virginia at (16) Virginia Tech - Virginia Tech by 27
(18) South Carolina at Clemson - South Carolina by 3
BYU at (20) Utah - Utah by 20
Florida at (22) Florida State - Florida State by 6
(23) North Carolina State at Maryland - North Carolina State by 1
(24) Iowa at Minnesota - Iowa by 13
(25) Mississippi State at Mississippi - Mississippi State by 4
South Florida at Miami (FL) - Miami by 18
Hawaii at New Mexico State - Hawaii by 32
Notre Dame at USC - USC by 13
UCF at Memphis - UCF by 32
UNLV at San Diego State - San Diego State by 27
NFL Predictions - 25-29 Nov
Patriots at Lions - Patriots by 4
Saints at Cowboys - Cowboys by 1
Bengals at Jets - Jets by 14
Packers at Falcons - Packers by 5
Steelers at Bills - Steelers by 10
Panthers at Browns - Browns by 19
Jaguars at Giants - Giants by 8
Vikings at Redskins - Redskins by 6
Titans at Texans - Titans by 5
Dolphins at Raiders - Dolphins by 1
Chiefs at Seahawks - Chiefs by 7
Eagles at Bears - Eagles by 1
Rams at Broncos - Broncos by 2
Buccaneers at Ravens - Ravens by 12
Chargers at Colts - Colts by 4
49ers at Cardinals - Cardinals by 1
Prediction Results - 22 Nov
NBA: 5/8 (.625) 29/45 overall (.644)
NFL: 1/1 (1.000) 10/16 overall (.625)
NFL Rankings - 23 Nov
This the my complete NFL rankings for this week, set up the same way as all my other rankings below.
1. Green Bay (7-3) -12.91 (1)
2. Pittsburgh (7-3) -10.07 (7)
3. Philadelphia (7-3) -7.98 (4)
4. New England (8-2) -6.84 (3)
5. New York Jets (8-2) -6.54 (2)
6. Baltimore (7-3) -6.26 (6)
7. Tennessee (5-5) -5.78 (5)
8. Atlanta (8-2) -5.65 (8)
9. Indianapolis (6-4) -5.61 (10)
10. Chicago (7-3) -4.33 (15)
11. San Diego (5-5) -3.89 (11)
12. New York Giants (6-4) -2.71 (17)
13. New Orleans (7-3) -0.87 (13)
14. Kansas City (6-4) -0.74 (20)
15. Detroit (2-8) -0.56 (12)
16. Cleveland (3-7) -0.54 (14)
17. Washington (5-5) -0.30 (24)
18. Dallas (3-7) 0.66 (22)
19. Miami (5-5) 0.68 (9)
20. Buffalo (2-8) 1.71 (23)
21. Houston (4-6) 1.72 (28)
22. Oakland (5-5) 3.03 (16)
23. Tampa Bay (7-3) 3.22 (27)
24. Jacksonville (6-4) 3.56 (25)
25. Minnesota (3-7) 3.66 (18)
26. Cincinnati (2-8) 5.04 (19)
27. Denver (3-7) 7.49 (21)
28. Saint Louis (4-6) 7.57 (29)
29. Seattle (5-5) 8.88 (26)
30. San Francisco (3-7) 10.98 (30)
31. Arizona (3-7) 12.59 (31)
32. Carolina (1-9) 15. 86 (32)
Big jumper of the week: Washington Redskins
They were somewhat impressive in their comeback upset win at Tennessee, who is better than their record would suggest. The Redskins have been pretty tough to read this year, playing well once in a while but putting up an equal number of poor performances.
Flop of the week: Miami Dolphins
Yes, they were playing without their 2 top quarterbacks, but being shut out at home in a game they should have won would not look good in any situation.
An interesting note on my rankings. You'll notice that the entire NFC West is in the bottom 5 of my overall rankings. Sadly, one of these lousy teams will make the playoffs for "winning" the division.
Monday, November 22, 2010
NBA Rankings - 22 Nov
Here are my rankings of each NBA team as of today, using the same formula used for my college football rankings. Team name is followed by record, rating, and previous ranking.
1. Miami (8-5) -9.38 (2)
2. Los Angeles Lakers (12-2) -9.21 (6)
3. San Antonio (11-1) -9.17 (3)
4. New Orleans (11-1) -7.29 (1)
5. Boston (9-4) -6.67 (5)
6. Orlando (9-3) -6.26 (14)
7. Dallas (8-4) -5.45 (7)
8. Chicago (7-4) -4.57 (15)
9. Utah (9-5) -3.15 (12)
10. Denver (7-6) -2.94 (4)
11. Indiana (5-6) -1.94 (10)
12. Portland (8-6) -1.52 (13)
13. Milwaukee (5-8) -1.42 (8)
14. Oklahoma City (9-4) -1.24 (22)
15. Charlotte (5-8) -1.07 (19)
16. Atlanta (8-5) -0.83 (16)
17. Phoenix (6-7) 0.53 (9)
18. Houston (3-9) 0.99 (11)
19. Toronto (5-9) 1.01 (20)
20. Philadelphia (3-10) 1.23 (21)
21. Memphis (5-9) 1.26 (18)
22. New York (6-8) 1.65 (23)
23. New Jersey (4-9) 2.65 (26)
24. Golden State (7-6) 4.26 (17)
25. Detroit (5-8) 4.72 (24)
26. Cleveland (5-7) 5.12 (27)
27. Sacramento (4-8) 6.59 (30)
28. Washington (4-8) 6.75 (28)
29. Minnesota (4-10) 8.26 (29)
30. Los Angeles Clippers (1-13) 8.63 (25)
Big jumps of the week:
The big O's. Both Orlando and Oklahoma City have won 4 straight and are now leading their divisions. Each jumped 8 spots in the rankings this week. They face very different teams tonight, as Orlando must visit the streaking Spurs, while the Thunder plays at home against the terrible Timberwolves.
Freefall of the week:
Phoenix. The Suns lost 3 straight by double digits, and with Steve Nash not fully healthy, it may not end at 3. Even with Nash, they will probably drop their next two before their weekend visit from the Clippers.
NBA Predictions - 22 Nov
Celtics at Hawks - Celtics by 3
Pacers at Heat - Heat by 10
Timberwolves at Thunder - Thunder by 12
Suns at Rockets - Rockets by 2
Magic at Spurs - Spurs by 6
Kings at Jazz - Jazz by 12
Nuggets at Warriors - Nuggets by 4
Hornets at Clippers - Hornets by 13
Prediction results - 21 Nov
NBA: 3/4 (.750) 24/37 overall (.649)
NFL: 9/14 (.643) 9/15 overall (.600)
Sunday, November 21, 2010
College Football Rankings - 21 Nov
Here is my new, completely unbiased and statistical ranking of the top 25 teams in college football. The team name is followed by overall record, rating, and previous ranking.
1. Oregon (10-0) -45.11 (1)
2. Boise State (10-0) -44.25 (2)
3. Stanford (10-1) -41.45 (3)
4. TCU (11-0) -33.60 (5)
5. Alabama (9-2) -33.07 (4)
6. Ohio State (10-1) -32.78 (6)
7. Oklahoma (9-2) -29.14 (16)
8. Auburn (11-0) -28.98 (7)
9. Arizona State (4-6) -28.95 (9)
10. Wisconsin (10-1) -27.83 (10)
11. Arkansas (9-2) -27.19 (14)
12. South Carolina (8-3) -26.72 (12)
13. Virginia Tech (9-2) -26.36 (17)
14. Oregon State (5-5) -26.10 (NR)
15. Oklahoma State (10-1) -25.61 (19)
16. Arizona (7-3) -25.45 (18)
17. Nebraska (9-2) -25.20 (24)
18. Missouri (9-2) -24.87 (22)
19. Florida (7-4) -24.59 (NR)
20. USC (7-4) -24.49 (8)
21. Florida State (8-3) -24.46 (23)
22. Texas A&M (8-3) -23.97 (20)
23. Utah (9-2) -23.19 (NR)
24. Nevada (10-1) -23.18 (21)
25. Iowa (7-4) -22.61 (25)
Dropped from rankings:
26. LSU (10-1) -21.76 (13)
27. Cal (5-6) -21.70 (11)
29. Miami (FL) (7-4) -21.09 (15)
Some interesting movement in the rankings this week.
Alabama, despite a huge win over Georgia State, dropped one notch below idle TCU. This has to do completely with the strength of the opponent they played. They would have had to win by an unsportsmanlike margin to maintain their ranking or move up, a la Wisconsin vs. Indiana.
Oklahoma was a big mover this week. They had a strong victory over a decent Baylor team, and Texas A&M, one of Oklahoma's losses, pulled off an upset over Nebraska. If they can beat Oklahoma State next week, which is a possibility, they would be my pick to win the Big 12 and score a BCS invite.
Oregon State re-entered the rankings after they demolished USC once again. The Beavers still have a chance at a bowl berth despite playing the nation's most difficult schedule, including TCU, Boise State, and Oregon, all of whom are undefeated today. Injuries and a couple of bad games kept them from a shot at the Pac-10 title.
Nebraska and Texas A&M may look like they moved in the wrong directions following the Aggies' upset of Nebraska, but based on A&M being at home, they should have won by more than 3. Nevertheless, it was an impressive victory over a very good team.
Florida re-enters the rankings just in time for their showdown with in-state rival Florida State, who is also ranked. Their win over an FCS opponent (Appalachian State) was much more impressive than Alabama's because the Mountaineers are one of the top programs in the FCS and will challenge for the championship at their level.
USC took a nosedive after their blowout loss to Oregon State, and they may fall out of the rankings completely if Matt Barkley's ankle makes him unavailable for their annual showdown with Notre Dame, who is much improved this year.
Utah's comeback win over an underrated San Diego State team earned them a spot back in the rankings after a 1-week hiatus following their 2-game losing streak. They play a home game against archrival BYU next week, and would finish with another 10-win season with a victory.
Nevada slipped a few spots this week due to their extremely low strength of schedule, but that is about to increase with their huge showdown against Boise State this week. A victory there would earn them a lot of respect, as well as clearing up the BCS title picture a little.
LSU dropped just out of the rankings with their lucky victory over one of the SEC's weakest teams. All talk of LSU in the BCS will end with their loss at Arkansas this weekend, and they will finally be exposed as a team that continually found ways to eke out wins against bad teams, with one miraculous victory over Alabama.
Prediction results - 20 Nov
College Football: 12/15 (.800) 14/17 overall (0.824)
NBA: 4/9 (0.444) 21/33 overall (0.636)
NBA Player of the Night:
Stephen Jackson - Bobcats: It's tough to overlook Blake Griffin's 44 points or Al Horford's 20-20, but those were both put up in losing efforts, while Jackson earned the first triple-double in Bobcats history with 24 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists in a big win over the Suns.
NBA Predictions - 21 Nov
Celtics at Raptors - Celtics by 5
Wizards at Pistons - Pistons by 4
Hornets at Kings - Hornets by 13
Warriors at Lakers - Lakers by 13
1. Oregon (10-0) -45.11 (1)
2. Boise State (10-0) -44.25 (2)
3. Stanford (10-1) -41.45 (3)
4. TCU (11-0) -33.60 (5)
5. Alabama (9-2) -33.07 (4)
6. Ohio State (10-1) -32.78 (6)
7. Oklahoma (9-2) -29.14 (16)
8. Auburn (11-0) -28.98 (7)
9. Arizona State (4-6) -28.95 (9)
10. Wisconsin (10-1) -27.83 (10)
11. Arkansas (9-2) -27.19 (14)
12. South Carolina (8-3) -26.72 (12)
13. Virginia Tech (9-2) -26.36 (17)
14. Oregon State (5-5) -26.10 (NR)
15. Oklahoma State (10-1) -25.61 (19)
16. Arizona (7-3) -25.45 (18)
17. Nebraska (9-2) -25.20 (24)
18. Missouri (9-2) -24.87 (22)
19. Florida (7-4) -24.59 (NR)
20. USC (7-4) -24.49 (8)
21. Florida State (8-3) -24.46 (23)
22. Texas A&M (8-3) -23.97 (20)
23. Utah (9-2) -23.19 (NR)
24. Nevada (10-1) -23.18 (21)
25. Iowa (7-4) -22.61 (25)
Dropped from rankings:
26. LSU (10-1) -21.76 (13)
27. Cal (5-6) -21.70 (11)
29. Miami (FL) (7-4) -21.09 (15)
Some interesting movement in the rankings this week.
Alabama, despite a huge win over Georgia State, dropped one notch below idle TCU. This has to do completely with the strength of the opponent they played. They would have had to win by an unsportsmanlike margin to maintain their ranking or move up, a la Wisconsin vs. Indiana.
Oklahoma was a big mover this week. They had a strong victory over a decent Baylor team, and Texas A&M, one of Oklahoma's losses, pulled off an upset over Nebraska. If they can beat Oklahoma State next week, which is a possibility, they would be my pick to win the Big 12 and score a BCS invite.
Oregon State re-entered the rankings after they demolished USC once again. The Beavers still have a chance at a bowl berth despite playing the nation's most difficult schedule, including TCU, Boise State, and Oregon, all of whom are undefeated today. Injuries and a couple of bad games kept them from a shot at the Pac-10 title.
Nebraska and Texas A&M may look like they moved in the wrong directions following the Aggies' upset of Nebraska, but based on A&M being at home, they should have won by more than 3. Nevertheless, it was an impressive victory over a very good team.
Florida re-enters the rankings just in time for their showdown with in-state rival Florida State, who is also ranked. Their win over an FCS opponent (Appalachian State) was much more impressive than Alabama's because the Mountaineers are one of the top programs in the FCS and will challenge for the championship at their level.
USC took a nosedive after their blowout loss to Oregon State, and they may fall out of the rankings completely if Matt Barkley's ankle makes him unavailable for their annual showdown with Notre Dame, who is much improved this year.
Utah's comeback win over an underrated San Diego State team earned them a spot back in the rankings after a 1-week hiatus following their 2-game losing streak. They play a home game against archrival BYU next week, and would finish with another 10-win season with a victory.
Nevada slipped a few spots this week due to their extremely low strength of schedule, but that is about to increase with their huge showdown against Boise State this week. A victory there would earn them a lot of respect, as well as clearing up the BCS title picture a little.
LSU dropped just out of the rankings with their lucky victory over one of the SEC's weakest teams. All talk of LSU in the BCS will end with their loss at Arkansas this weekend, and they will finally be exposed as a team that continually found ways to eke out wins against bad teams, with one miraculous victory over Alabama.
Prediction results - 20 Nov
College Football: 12/15 (.800) 14/17 overall (0.824)
NBA: 4/9 (0.444) 21/33 overall (0.636)
NBA Player of the Night:
Stephen Jackson - Bobcats: It's tough to overlook Blake Griffin's 44 points or Al Horford's 20-20, but those were both put up in losing efforts, while Jackson earned the first triple-double in Bobcats history with 24 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists in a big win over the Suns.
NBA Predictions - 21 Nov
Celtics at Raptors - Celtics by 5
Wizards at Pistons - Pistons by 4
Hornets at Kings - Hornets by 13
Warriors at Lakers - Lakers by 13
Saturday, November 20, 2010
NBA Predictions - 20 Nov
Tough night picking last night, and tonight is shaping up to be another one. Lots of good games coming up.
Magic at Pacers - Pacers by 1
Suns at Bobcats - Bobcats by 1
Mavericks at Hawks - Hawks by 1
Heat at Grizzlies - Heat by 10
Thunder at Bucks - Bucks by 3
Cavaliers at Spurs - Spurs by 14
Nets at Nuggets - Nuggets by 10
Jazz at Blazers - Blazers by 5
Knicks at Clippers - Knicks by 4
Results - 19 Nov
NBA 5/11 (0.455) 17/24 overall (0.708)
College Football 1/1 (1.000) 2/2 overall (1.000)
Tonight is the second night in a row that the Knicks will be playing a team that is ranked last in my NBA rankings (Sacramento moved up a couple spots with their upset last night). I wouldn't be surprised if they lost again, but I do believe they are better than the Clippers.
On another topic, Boise State's dominant shutout victory over Fresno State last night showed that Boise may be the best team in the country. Fresno has not been shut out in 12 years, and nearly half of their total offense came on their last-gasp 4th quarter drive that came up short again. Unless Boise slips up in their showdown with Nevada next week, I now believe they should play for the title, regardless of who else is undefeated.
Magic at Pacers - Pacers by 1
Suns at Bobcats - Bobcats by 1
Mavericks at Hawks - Hawks by 1
Heat at Grizzlies - Heat by 10
Thunder at Bucks - Bucks by 3
Cavaliers at Spurs - Spurs by 14
Nets at Nuggets - Nuggets by 10
Jazz at Blazers - Blazers by 5
Knicks at Clippers - Knicks by 4
Results - 19 Nov
NBA 5/11 (0.455) 17/24 overall (0.708)
College Football 1/1 (1.000) 2/2 overall (1.000)
Tonight is the second night in a row that the Knicks will be playing a team that is ranked last in my NBA rankings (Sacramento moved up a couple spots with their upset last night). I wouldn't be surprised if they lost again, but I do believe they are better than the Clippers.
On another topic, Boise State's dominant shutout victory over Fresno State last night showed that Boise may be the best team in the country. Fresno has not been shut out in 12 years, and nearly half of their total offense came on their last-gasp 4th quarter drive that came up short again. Unless Boise slips up in their showdown with Nevada next week, I now believe they should play for the title, regardless of who else is undefeated.
Friday, November 19, 2010
NBA MVP Rankings - 19 Nov
I have created a player-rating formula for NBA players that equalizes all statistics across all positions, so that guards aren't penalized for not rebounding and centers aren't penalized for lack of assists, etc. It also means that players who do things not necessarily expected from their position get bonus points. For MVP ratings, I also take team performance into account. For example, Kevin Love has been playing extremely well lately, but due to his team's poor record, he won't appear in this list. Here is my official list of MVP contenders as of today. The spaces in between groups of players show that there is a gap between one group of players and another.
1. Pau Gasol - LAL - 22.9 pts, 12.2 reb, .550 FG%
2. Kobe Bryant - LAL - 26.3 pts, 6.2 reb, 5.0 ast
3. LeBron James - MIA - 22.1 pts, 5.8 reb, 8.9 ast
4. Russell Westbrook - OKC - 23.3 pts, 8.1 ast, 2.1 stl
5. Dwyane Wade - MIA - 24.0 pts, 6.0 reb, 3.5 ast
6. Paul Millsap - UTA - 21.5 pts, 9.5 reb, 0.582 FG%
7. Chris Paul - NOH - 17.8 pts, 10.2 ast, 2.5 stl
8. Kevin Durant - OKC - 28.0 pts, 6.4 reb, .926 FT%
9. Derrick Rose - CHI - 25.5 pts, 8.7 ast, 1.1 stl
10. Monta Ellis - GSW - 26.5 pts, 4.8 ast, 2.6 stl
Pau Gasol is in a league by himself right now, averaging career highs in points and rebounds and leading the Lakers to one of the best records in the league. He has also been extremely consistent, never logging less than 17 points or 7 rebounds in a game this year.
Kobe is still Kobe. He's sitting right around his career averages all around, and the Lakers are winning. If both players can maintain their current levels of production through the season, I don't think the Lakers can be stopped.
LeBron James' scoring may be down from his 2 MVP seasons, but he is still one of the best in the league, as can be seen by his assist average, currently 6th in the NBA. With better teammates, he hasn't needed to score as much, but he's still finding ways to help the Heat win, and their only losses have come to division-leading teams.
Russell Westbrook is a new, and maybe unexpected, name on this list. But he has earned this spot with his new career highs in every category while teammate Kevin Durant has struggled a little to start off the season, including 36 points in a win over Portland this week.
Dwyane Wade has maintained his usual high level of play, even with LeBron in town. His only off games have been against the Boston Celtics, their main rival in the East, but he played very well in their losses to the Hornets and Jazz.
Paul Millsap has become the player Utah always thought he would be, now that Carlos Boozer is gone. His 46 points in the comeback win over Miami cemented his place on this list, as well as making him an early leader in the Most Improved Player voting.
Chris Paul is the only player on this list averaging less than 20 pointer per game, but even though his averages may be slightly down from 2 years ago, he is the undisputed leader of the team with the best record in the NBA.
Kevin Durant's early-season struggles seem to be lifting, and his scoring average is again creeping up toward that 30-point plateau he hit last year. He has hit an incredible 40 of 41 free throws in his past 5 games for an average of .976 over that span.
Derrick Rose continues to improve on his All-Star performance from last year, topping all of his averages from last year. He also has consecutive 33-point games heading into this weekend, and the Bulls are looking good for the playoffs.
Monta Ellis' numbers look a lot like they did a year ago, but the biggest difference is that this year the Warriors are winning some games. Ellis opened the season with a 46-point performance against the Rockets, and currently owns a streak of 9 straight 20-point games.
Other players just outside the top 10: Carmelo Anthony, Dirk Nowitzki, Deron Williams, Rudy Gay, and Rajon Rondo.
NBA Predictions - 19 Nov
Thunder at Celtics - Celtics by 13
Bucks at 76ers - Bucks by 4
Grizzlies at Wizards - Grizzlies by 4
Rockets at Raptors - Raptors by 2
Bobcats at Heat - Heat by 18
Cavaliers at Hornets - Hornets by 17
Lakers at Timberwolves - Lakers by 13
Spurs at Jazz - Spurs by 1
Bulls at Mavericks - Mavericks by 7
Nets at Kings - Nets by 4
Knicks at Warriors - Warriors by 3
Prediction results - 18 Nov
NBA: 3/3 (1.000)
College Football: 1/1 (1.000)
1. Pau Gasol - LAL - 22.9 pts, 12.2 reb, .550 FG%
2. Kobe Bryant - LAL - 26.3 pts, 6.2 reb, 5.0 ast
3. LeBron James - MIA - 22.1 pts, 5.8 reb, 8.9 ast
4. Russell Westbrook - OKC - 23.3 pts, 8.1 ast, 2.1 stl
5. Dwyane Wade - MIA - 24.0 pts, 6.0 reb, 3.5 ast
6. Paul Millsap - UTA - 21.5 pts, 9.5 reb, 0.582 FG%
7. Chris Paul - NOH - 17.8 pts, 10.2 ast, 2.5 stl
8. Kevin Durant - OKC - 28.0 pts, 6.4 reb, .926 FT%
9. Derrick Rose - CHI - 25.5 pts, 8.7 ast, 1.1 stl
10. Monta Ellis - GSW - 26.5 pts, 4.8 ast, 2.6 stl
Pau Gasol is in a league by himself right now, averaging career highs in points and rebounds and leading the Lakers to one of the best records in the league. He has also been extremely consistent, never logging less than 17 points or 7 rebounds in a game this year.
Kobe is still Kobe. He's sitting right around his career averages all around, and the Lakers are winning. If both players can maintain their current levels of production through the season, I don't think the Lakers can be stopped.
LeBron James' scoring may be down from his 2 MVP seasons, but he is still one of the best in the league, as can be seen by his assist average, currently 6th in the NBA. With better teammates, he hasn't needed to score as much, but he's still finding ways to help the Heat win, and their only losses have come to division-leading teams.
Russell Westbrook is a new, and maybe unexpected, name on this list. But he has earned this spot with his new career highs in every category while teammate Kevin Durant has struggled a little to start off the season, including 36 points in a win over Portland this week.
Dwyane Wade has maintained his usual high level of play, even with LeBron in town. His only off games have been against the Boston Celtics, their main rival in the East, but he played very well in their losses to the Hornets and Jazz.
Paul Millsap has become the player Utah always thought he would be, now that Carlos Boozer is gone. His 46 points in the comeback win over Miami cemented his place on this list, as well as making him an early leader in the Most Improved Player voting.
Chris Paul is the only player on this list averaging less than 20 pointer per game, but even though his averages may be slightly down from 2 years ago, he is the undisputed leader of the team with the best record in the NBA.
Kevin Durant's early-season struggles seem to be lifting, and his scoring average is again creeping up toward that 30-point plateau he hit last year. He has hit an incredible 40 of 41 free throws in his past 5 games for an average of .976 over that span.
Derrick Rose continues to improve on his All-Star performance from last year, topping all of his averages from last year. He also has consecutive 33-point games heading into this weekend, and the Bulls are looking good for the playoffs.
Monta Ellis' numbers look a lot like they did a year ago, but the biggest difference is that this year the Warriors are winning some games. Ellis opened the season with a 46-point performance against the Rockets, and currently owns a streak of 9 straight 20-point games.
Other players just outside the top 10: Carmelo Anthony, Dirk Nowitzki, Deron Williams, Rudy Gay, and Rajon Rondo.
NBA Predictions - 19 Nov
Thunder at Celtics - Celtics by 13
Bucks at 76ers - Bucks by 4
Grizzlies at Wizards - Grizzlies by 4
Rockets at Raptors - Raptors by 2
Bobcats at Heat - Heat by 18
Cavaliers at Hornets - Hornets by 17
Lakers at Timberwolves - Lakers by 13
Spurs at Jazz - Spurs by 1
Bulls at Mavericks - Mavericks by 7
Nets at Kings - Nets by 4
Knicks at Warriors - Warriors by 3
Prediction results - 18 Nov
NBA: 3/3 (1.000)
College Football: 1/1 (1.000)
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Should Boise State Play For the Championship?
First of all, let me begin by saying that Boise State has been one of the top 2 teams in my rankings for 6 consecutive weeks. In contrast, last season they spent only one week at #2 in my rankings, and that week was in October. They dropped down to #7 by the end of last season. There were two games in particular last year that showed a little weakness in Boise: Their 28-21 win at Tulsa, and their 45-35 win at Louisiana Tech. This season, the closest they have come to looking weak was in their 49-20 win over Louisiana Tech. In fact, Kellen Moore, the quarterback and Heisman Trophy candidate, has only played through the 4th quarter twice all season, both in close wins over quality opponents.
The biggest reason that most people give for leaving Boise State out of the championship is their strength of schedule. While it's obvious that playing a WAC schedule is much easier than playing an SEC or Pac-10 schedule (see my listing of conference strengths), Boise State is the only team in the BCS Top 20 who scheduled more than one nonconference game against opponents in the top third of college football teams. While the weak conference schedule is out of their control, they do what they can with the part of their schedule they can control.
The problem will come if Auburn is able to finish the season undefeated, with wins over Alabama and South Carolina to close the season. If the two strongest conferences each produce an undefeated team, can one really be left out for a team from a weaker conference? I don't believe that they should be. But if Auburn slips up, like they probably will against Alabama, I don't believe Boise State should be left out.
Two recent examples from other leagues show why they should be allowed in. In 2008, the Arizona Cardinals were the best team in a very weak NFC West division, a division that was so weak that many were calling the Cardinals the worst team ever to make the playoffs. Yet they somehow managed to win the NFC Championship and come within one score of winning the Super Bowl. Another example is the Butler Bulldogs basketball team from earlier this year. They were the best team in a weak Horizon League, and nobody thought they'd go very far in the NCAA Tournament, yet they advanced to the Championship game and came within one score of beating Duke for the title. Obviously, strength of schedule isn't everything. The teams performance in each game is also important, and Boise State has stood strong in that category all year long.
NBA Performance of the Night:
Chris Bosh, Heat, who torched the Suns for 35 points and 6 rebounds, miles above his previous 14 point average, while leading Miami to their first win over a team with a winning record.
NBA picks (11/18):
Clippers at Pacers - Pacers by 8
Suns at Magic - Magic by 7
Nuggets at Trail Blazers - Trail Blazers by 3
The biggest reason that most people give for leaving Boise State out of the championship is their strength of schedule. While it's obvious that playing a WAC schedule is much easier than playing an SEC or Pac-10 schedule (see my listing of conference strengths), Boise State is the only team in the BCS Top 20 who scheduled more than one nonconference game against opponents in the top third of college football teams. While the weak conference schedule is out of their control, they do what they can with the part of their schedule they can control.
The problem will come if Auburn is able to finish the season undefeated, with wins over Alabama and South Carolina to close the season. If the two strongest conferences each produce an undefeated team, can one really be left out for a team from a weaker conference? I don't believe that they should be. But if Auburn slips up, like they probably will against Alabama, I don't believe Boise State should be left out.
Two recent examples from other leagues show why they should be allowed in. In 2008, the Arizona Cardinals were the best team in a very weak NFC West division, a division that was so weak that many were calling the Cardinals the worst team ever to make the playoffs. Yet they somehow managed to win the NFC Championship and come within one score of winning the Super Bowl. Another example is the Butler Bulldogs basketball team from earlier this year. They were the best team in a weak Horizon League, and nobody thought they'd go very far in the NCAA Tournament, yet they advanced to the Championship game and came within one score of beating Duke for the title. Obviously, strength of schedule isn't everything. The teams performance in each game is also important, and Boise State has stood strong in that category all year long.
NBA Performance of the Night:
Chris Bosh, Heat, who torched the Suns for 35 points and 6 rebounds, miles above his previous 14 point average, while leading Miami to their first win over a team with a winning record.
NBA picks (11/18):
Clippers at Pacers - Pacers by 8
Suns at Magic - Magic by 7
Nuggets at Trail Blazers - Trail Blazers by 3
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
College Football Weekend Predictions
My predictions for games involving teams ranked in the BCS top 25 this weekend, with probability in parentheses.
Thursday:
Georgia State at Alabama - Alabama (96%)
Friday:
Fresno State at Boise State - Boise State (95%)
Saturday:
Mississippi at LSU - LSU (93%)
Stanford at California - Stanford (67%)
Wisconsin at Michigan - Wisconsin (71%)
Nebraska at Texas A&M - Texas A&M (75%)
Ohio State at Iowa - Ohio State (52%)
Oklahoma State at Kansas - Oklahoma State (92%)
Purdue at Michigan State - Michigan State (92%)
Arkansas at Mississippi State - Arkansas (51%)
Oklahoma at Baylor - Oklahoma (66%)
Missouri at Iowa State - Missouri (86%)
Virginia Tech at Miami - Miami (67%)
Troy at South Carolina - South Carolina (94%)
New Mexico State at Nevada - Nevada (96%)
Utah at San Diego State - San Diego State (51%)
Florida State at Maryland - Maryland (51%)
Thursday:
Georgia State at Alabama - Alabama (96%)
Friday:
Fresno State at Boise State - Boise State (95%)
Saturday:
Mississippi at LSU - LSU (93%)
Stanford at California - Stanford (67%)
Wisconsin at Michigan - Wisconsin (71%)
Nebraska at Texas A&M - Texas A&M (75%)
Ohio State at Iowa - Ohio State (52%)
Oklahoma State at Kansas - Oklahoma State (92%)
Purdue at Michigan State - Michigan State (92%)
Arkansas at Mississippi State - Arkansas (51%)
Oklahoma at Baylor - Oklahoma (66%)
Missouri at Iowa State - Missouri (86%)
Virginia Tech at Miami - Miami (67%)
Troy at South Carolina - South Carolina (94%)
New Mexico State at Nevada - Nevada (96%)
Utah at San Diego State - San Diego State (51%)
Florida State at Maryland - Maryland (51%)
College Football Rankings Discussion
First of all, you may have noticed that Arizona State somehow made the top 10 in my rankings. I am not advocating that they should be ranked that high in the polls, but if you look at the quality of their losses, you will see that 5 of their 6 losses came to teams ranked in the top 11 of these rankings, and that 4 of those 5 losses came by a combined 17 points.
You may also notice that BCS #2 Auburn is clear down at #7, the lowest of the unbeatens. There is good reason for this. They have played only 3 teams ranked in my current top 25, and 3 teams ranked in the bottom 30. Overall strength of schedule will be discussed more later, but that is the culprit behind Auburn's ranking.
Oklahoma State and Nebraska have very low rankings for 1-loss teams from a power conference. Oklahoma State's problem is the one win over a ranked opponent, and Nebraska has the loss to Texas dragging it down. Michigan State, meanwhile, doesn't even appear in my top 25. Once again, they only have one win over a ranked opponent, and one huge loss to Iowa. Scheduling Northern Colorado, Florida Atlantic, and Western Michigan as nonconference foes doesn't help either.
Ranked teams by conference:
Pac-10: 6
SEC: 5
Big 12: 5
Big 10: 3
ACC: 3
WAC: 2
MWC: 1
Big East: 0
Overall conference rankings:
Pac-10: -24.06
SEC: -18.68
Big 10: -13.41
ACC: -13.03
Big 12: -12.95
Big East: -12.61
WAC: -7.38
MWC: -4.79
CUSA: 0.94
MAC: 2.55
Sun Belt: 5.43
These rankings show that there are really 2 power conferences, with 4 good conferences, 2 above average, and 3 below average currently.
You may also notice that BCS #2 Auburn is clear down at #7, the lowest of the unbeatens. There is good reason for this. They have played only 3 teams ranked in my current top 25, and 3 teams ranked in the bottom 30. Overall strength of schedule will be discussed more later, but that is the culprit behind Auburn's ranking.
Oklahoma State and Nebraska have very low rankings for 1-loss teams from a power conference. Oklahoma State's problem is the one win over a ranked opponent, and Nebraska has the loss to Texas dragging it down. Michigan State, meanwhile, doesn't even appear in my top 25. Once again, they only have one win over a ranked opponent, and one huge loss to Iowa. Scheduling Northern Colorado, Florida Atlantic, and Western Michigan as nonconference foes doesn't help either.
Ranked teams by conference:
Pac-10: 6
SEC: 5
Big 12: 5
Big 10: 3
ACC: 3
WAC: 2
MWC: 1
Big East: 0
Overall conference rankings:
Pac-10: -24.06
SEC: -18.68
Big 10: -13.41
ACC: -13.03
Big 12: -12.95
Big East: -12.61
WAC: -7.38
MWC: -4.79
CUSA: 0.94
MAC: 2.55
Sun Belt: 5.43
These rankings show that there are really 2 power conferences, with 4 good conferences, 2 above average, and 3 below average currently.
College Football Rankings - 14 Nov
Here is the official ranking of the Top 25 teams for this week according to the rating system I have described below. The team name is followed by its record, rating, and previous rank.
1. Oregon (10-0) -45.99 (1)
2. Boise State (9-0) -39.46 (2)
3. Stanford (9-1) -37.85 (4)
4. Alabama (8-2) -32.64 (6)
5. TCU (11-0) -31.42 (3)
6. Ohio State (9-1) -31.27 (5)
7. Auburn (11-0) -28.92 (8)
8. USC (7-3) -28.62 (13)
9. Arizona State (4-6) -28.01 (10)
10. Wisconsin (9-1) -27.21 (28)
11. California (5-5) -26.26 (19)
12. South Carolina (7-3) -26.16 (36)
13. LSU (9-1) -25.00 (21)
14. Arkansas (8-2) -24.96 (9)
15. Miami (FL) (7-3) -24.73 (26)
16. Oklahoma (8-2) -24.59 (24)
17. Virginia Tech (8-2) -24.50 (29)
18. Arizona (7-3) -24.49 (11)
19. Oklahoma State (9-1) -23.99 (15)
20. Texas A&M (7-3) -23.78 (20)
21. Nevada (9-1) -23.45 (7)
22. Missouri (8-2) -22.42 (22)
23. Florida State (7-3) -21.99 (23)
24. Nebraska (9-1) -21.64 (14)
25. Iowa (7-3) -21.40 (18)
Dropped from rankings:
26. Pittsburgh (5-4) -21.00 (25)
28. Florida (6-4) -20.41 (12)
31. Utah (8-2) -19.47 (17)
38. Oregon State (4-5) -16.98 (16)
I'll discuss some of the interesting points of these rankings later.
1. Oregon (10-0) -45.99 (1)
2. Boise State (9-0) -39.46 (2)
3. Stanford (9-1) -37.85 (4)
4. Alabama (8-2) -32.64 (6)
5. TCU (11-0) -31.42 (3)
6. Ohio State (9-1) -31.27 (5)
7. Auburn (11-0) -28.92 (8)
8. USC (7-3) -28.62 (13)
9. Arizona State (4-6) -28.01 (10)
10. Wisconsin (9-1) -27.21 (28)
11. California (5-5) -26.26 (19)
12. South Carolina (7-3) -26.16 (36)
13. LSU (9-1) -25.00 (21)
14. Arkansas (8-2) -24.96 (9)
15. Miami (FL) (7-3) -24.73 (26)
16. Oklahoma (8-2) -24.59 (24)
17. Virginia Tech (8-2) -24.50 (29)
18. Arizona (7-3) -24.49 (11)
19. Oklahoma State (9-1) -23.99 (15)
20. Texas A&M (7-3) -23.78 (20)
21. Nevada (9-1) -23.45 (7)
22. Missouri (8-2) -22.42 (22)
23. Florida State (7-3) -21.99 (23)
24. Nebraska (9-1) -21.64 (14)
25. Iowa (7-3) -21.40 (18)
Dropped from rankings:
26. Pittsburgh (5-4) -21.00 (25)
28. Florida (6-4) -20.41 (12)
31. Utah (8-2) -19.47 (17)
38. Oregon State (4-5) -16.98 (16)
I'll discuss some of the interesting points of these rankings later.
A Basic Introduction to My Rating System
I begin by assigning each team an equal value of zero. I then incorporate Margin of Victory and Home Advantage for every game, after which the process is iterated 50 times to balance each result and add Absolute Strength of Schedule into the equation. The results are then sorted and the teams ranked accordingly. The resulting value is the number of points that must be added to or subtracted from a team's score to make them equal with an average team.
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