For the second week in a row, the majority of the top 10 lost this week, many of them by large margins or to unranked teams, but there were still plenty of teams that took care of business. This week I have added the Definitely In category, and have broken down the good wins and losses for each of those teams, along with their bad losses, if they have any. Here is my current breakdown of tournament probability by conference, with odds of winning upcoming games in parentheses, and teams that moved up or down in italics:
American
Probably In
Cincinnati - UCF (87.8%)
SMU - @ Temple (63.5%)
Good Chance
Houston - @ Tulane (80.0%), @ Tulsa (54.9%)
Out
Memphis
Cincinnati and SMU should stay where they are for another week, barring a blowout loss for either. Houston probably needs to win both of its games to keep its spot on he good side.
Atlantic 10
Good Chance
Dayton - Saint Joseph's (90.9%), @ Rhode Island (37.7%)
VCU - @ George Washington (61.2%), Davidson (75.9%)
Rhode Island - @ Massachusetts (56.7%), Dayton (62.3%)
Dayton could solidify its chances with a win at Rhode Island, but more likely these same three teams will still keep riding the good side of the bubble for now.
ACC
Definitely In
Louisville
Good Wins: vs Wichita State, Purdue, Kentucky, vs Indiana, Duke, Clemson
Good Losses: vs Baylor, Virginia, @ Notre Dame, @ Florida State
Bad Losses: None
Probably In
North Carolina - Notre Dame (78.7%), @ Duke (39.7%)
Florida State - Clemson (76.0%), NC State (91.2%), @ Notre Dame (41.1%)
Virginia - Louisville (63.0%)
Duke - North Carolina (60.3%), Clemson (78.7%)
Solid Chance
Notre Dame - @ North Carolina (21.3%), Wake Forest (69.4%), Florida State (58.9%)
Good Chance
Syracuse - @ Clemson (29.5%), @ Pittsburgh (42.4%)
Miami (FL) - Virginia Tech (69.4%), @ Louisville (10.6%)
Wake Forest - @ Notre Dame (30.6%), NC State (82.6%)
Clemson - @ Florida State (24.0%), Syracuse (70.5%), @ Duke (21.3%)
Still a Chance
Virginia Tech - @ Miami (FL) (30.6%)
Louisville has been great, with nothing even close to a bad loss so far. North Carolina and Virginia could both lock down their spots this week against Duke and Louisville. Wake Forest and Clemson also have great opportunities to move up with an upset or two, while Notre Dame will probably need to win two or even all three this week to rise. A win for Virginia Tech could get them back on the good side, but it could hurt Miami at the same time.
Big 12
Definitely In
West Virginia
Good Wins: @ Virginia, @ Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor, Kansas, @ Iowa State
Good Losses: @ Kansas State, Oklahoma State
Bad Losses: vs Temple, @ Texas Tech, Oklahoma
Probably In
Kansas - @ Kansas State (46.6%), @ Texas Tech (56.4%)
Baylor - @ Oklahoma State (40.6%), TCU (81.1%)
Solid Chance
Iowa State - @ Texas (55.0%), Oklahoma (85.3%)
Kansas State - Kansas (53.4%), @ West Virginia (16.3%)
Oklahoma State - Baylor (59.4%), Texas (84.6%)
Good Chance
TCU - Texas Tech (68.1%), @ Baylor (18.9%)
Still a Chance
Texas Tech - @ TCU (31.9%), Kansas (43.6%)
Out
Texas
West Virginia has lost a few games that don't make sense, but they have beaten Kansas, Baylor, and Virginia, all current top 10 teams, so they won't be missing out in March. Kansas and Baylor could be joining the Mountaineers next week, especially if they win their tough road games. Oklahoma State could move up a notch as well if they can take out Baylor right after beating West Virginia. TCU and Texas Tech are both in need of big wins, and they both have the chance this week, so they need to take advantage.
Big East
Probably In
Villanova - Georgetown (91.5%), @ Xavier (51.6%)
Solid Chance
Xavier - DePaul (98.3%), Villanova (48.4%)
Creighton - @ DePaul (75.9%)
Butler - @ Marquette (42.7%), @ Providence (52.0%)
Good Chance
Marquette - Butler (57.3%), @ Georgetown (42.3%)
Still a Chance
Seton Hall - Providence (69.6%), @ St. John's (46.0%)
Providence - @ Seton Hall (30.4%), Butler (48.0%)
Georgetown - @ Villanova (8.5%), Marquette (57.7%)
Beating Xavier should be enough for Villanova to punch their ticket. Creighton and Butler are both in line to move up, but they can't lose this week or they will be stuck in the same place again. Seton Hall could join Marquette on the good side of the bubble with a pair of wins this week, but they could knock Providence out in the process.
Big Ten
Probably In
Wisconsin - Indiana (81.3%), @ Nebraska (68.7%)
Purdue - @ Indiana (53.5%)
Solid Chance
Northwestern - Illinois (76.3%)
Good Chance
Maryland - @ Penn State (52.3%), Ohio State (73.0%)
Minnesota - Iowa (77.7%), @ Rutgers (63.5%)
Indiana - @ Wisconsin (18.7%), Purdue (46.5%)
Michigan - Michigan State (67.7%)
Still a Chance
Michigan State - @ Michigan (32.3%), Iowa (72.3%)
Ohio State - Rutgers (83.9%), @ Maryland (27.0%)
Illinois - @ Northwestern (23.7%), Penn State (73.8%)
Wisconsin and Purdue both have a shot at locking in this week, but it's most likely one more week for both. Indiana has the most to gain this week, with games against the top 2 teams in the conference. Meanwhile, Illinois might need to beat Northwestern just to stay alive.
Missouri Valley
Probably In
Wichita State - Missouri State (94.1%)
Still a Chance
Illinois State - @ Drake (70.3%), Bradley (98.3%)
Wichita State probably made it yesterday with their blowout of Illinois State, the previous conference leader. Illinois State probably needs to win the rest of their games and reach the final of the conference tournament to make it now without the conference title.
Pac 12
Probably In
UCLA - Oregon (70.1%)
Solid Chance
Arizona - Stanford (92.6%), California (82.2%)
Oregon - @ UCLA (29.9%), @ USC (52.4%)
Good Chance
Utah - Washington State (98.7%), Washington (89.6%)
Still a Chance
USC - Oregon State (99.6%), Oregon (47.6%)
California - Colorado (70.6%), @ Arizona State (49.4%), @ Arizona (17.8%)
If they don't lose this week, Arizona should move up a notch, while Oregon could move up even with a loss, but probably not two. Utah absolutely cannot lose this week, as they are right on the edge as it is. USC has a huge opportunity against Oregon, while Cal probably needs to win all 3 just to stay alive, which is tough with Arizona on the road to finish the week.
SEC
Probably In
Kentucky - LSU (99.9%), @ Alabama (75.4%)
Florida - @ Georgia (61.9%), Texas A&M (93.3%)
Solid Chance
South Carolina - Alabama (85.8%), @ Mississippi State (58.0%)
Good Chance
Tennessee - Ole Miss (75.2%), Georgia (67.9%)
Still a Chance
Arkansas - Vanderbilt (68.1%), @ LSU (66.3%)
Georgia - Florida (38.1%), @ Tennessee (32.1%)
Texas A&M - Missouri (88.4%), @ Florida (6.7%)
Vanderbilt - @ Arkansas (31.9%), @ Missouri (63.6%)
Kentucky should make it official next week, though I've said that about them the last 2 weeks, and they've lost the big games they needed. Florida should be in as well next week, although losing at Georgia could hold them back for one week. Texas A&M needs to beat Florida on the road, which probably won't happen, but I'll keep them on there for now. Georgia and Tennessee could switch places if the Bulldogs win on the road this week.
Southern
Still a Chance
Furman - Chattanooga (65.2%), Samford (79.4%)
East Tennessee State - @ Wofford (50.7%), The Citadel (96.4%), Mercer (81.8%)
Chattanooga - @ Furman (34.8%), @ Wofford (47.9%)
These three teams would each need to win the rest of their games and then lose the conference title game to another of these teams just to be considered, but each is good enough that it could happen. One will lose this week for sure, and it will probably be the end for that team's at-large hopes.
West Coast
Definitely In
Gonzaga -
Good Wins: vs Florida, vs Iowa State, vs Arizona, vs Tennessee, Saint Mary's
Good Losses: None
Bad Losses: None
Solid Chance
Saint Mary's - Portland (99.9%), Gonzaga (45.5%)
Out
BYU
Gonzaga still hasn't lost, and those wins against Florida, Arizona, and Iowa State are looking pretty good right now. Saint Mary's would move up a line if they knock off the Zags, but even if they are destroyed, I don't see them missing the tournament without a couple of horrible conference losses.
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