8 more teams moved up to Definitely In status this week, bringing that total to 25. Depending on the number of those who win their conference tournaments (up to 9), that leaves about 20 spots still up for grabs with two weeks to go, though that number could drop if a team that wouldn't have made it as an at-large wins their conference. Here is my current breakdown of tournament probability by conference, with odds of winning upcoming games in parentheses, and teams that moved up or down in italics:
American
Definitely In
SMU
Good Wins: TCU, Houston, Cincinnati, @ Houston
Good Losses:vs Michigan, @ Cincinnati
Bad Losses:@ USC, @ Boise State
Cincinnati
Good Wins: @ Iowa State, @ Houston, SMU, Xavier
Good Losses:vs Rhode Island, @ Butler, @ SMU
Bad Losses:None
Good Chance
Houston - @ Memphis (47.2%), @ Cincinnati (22.9%)
Two wins this week would give Houston a great chance at getting in, especially if they beat Cincy. Otherwise, they will have to rely on getting a big win in the conference tourney.
Atlantic 10
Solid Chance
Dayton - VCU (68.9%), @ George Washington (61.7%)
Good Chance
VCU - @ Dayton (31.1%), George Mason (81.0%)
Rhode Island - @ Saint Joseph's (60.9%), Davidson (76.9%)
Rhode Island's win over VCU got them back on the right side of the bubble, but they are right on the edge, so they can't lose this week.
ACC
Definitely In
North Carolina
Good Wins:vs Oklahoma State, vs Wisconsin, @ Clemson, @ Wake Forest, Florida State, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Virginia, Louisville
Good Losses:@ Indiana, vs Kentucky, @ Miami (FL), @ Duke
Bad Losses:@ Georgia Tech
Louisville
Good Wins:vs Wichita State, Purdue, Kentucky, vs Indiana, Duke, Clemson, Miami (FL), @ Syracuse, Virginia Tech
Good Losses:vs Baylor, Virginia, @ Notre Dame, @ Florida State, @ Virginia, @ North Carolina
Bad Losses:None
Florida State
Good Wins:vs Illinois, Minnesota, Florida, Wake Forest, @ Virginia, Virginia Tech, Duke, Notre Dame, Louisville, @ Miami (FL), Clemson, @ Clemson
Good Losses:@ North Carolina, @ Syracuse, @ Notre Dame
Bad Losses:vs Temple, @ Georgia Tech, @ Pittsburgh
Notre Dame
Good Wins:vs Northwestern, Louisville, Clemson, @ Miami (FL), @ Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Florida State
Good Losses:vs Villanova, vs Purdue, @ Florida State, Virginia, Duke, @ North Carolina
Bad Losses:@ Georgia Tech
Duke
Good Wins:vs Rhode Island, Michigan State, vs Florida, Miami (FL), @ Wake Forest, @ Notre Dame, North Carolina, Clemson, @ Virginia, Wake Forest
Good Losses:vs Kansas, @ Virginia Tech, @ Florida State, @ Louisville, @ Syracuse, @ Miami (FL)
Bad Losses:NC State
Virginia
Good Wins:vs Providence, @ California, @ Louisville, Wake Forest, @ Clemson, @ Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Louisville
Good Losses:West Virginia, Florida State, @ Villanova, @ Syracuse, @ Virginia Tech, Duke, @ North Carolina, Miami (FL)
Bad Losses:@ Pittsburgh
Probably In
Miami (FL) - @ Virginia Tech (39.4%), @ Florida State (23.1%)
Wake Forest - Louisville (47.4%), @ Virginia Tech (39.7%)
Solid Chance
Clemson - NC State (83.8%), Boston College (92.5%)
Good Chance
Virginia Tech - Miami (FL) (60.6%), Wake Forest (60.3%)
Syracuse - @ Louisville (13.0%), Georgia Tech (76.7%)
Out
Pittsburgh
Miami and Wake will most likely be safe next week. Clemson has to win both games this week and pull off a couple upsets in the conference tourney, but they are good enough to do it. Virginia Tech has a couple great chances for quality wins at home, and Syracuse can really solidify their chances with a win at Louisville.
Big 12
Definitely In
Kansas
Good Wins:vs Duke, vs Georgia, @ TCU, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, @ Iowa State, @ Kentucky, Baylor, @ Kansas State, @ Texas Tech, West Virginia, @ Baylor, TCU
Good Losses:vs Indiana, @ West Virginia, Iowa State
Bad Losses:None
West Virginia
Good Wins:vs Illinois, @ Virginia, @ Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor, Kansas, @ Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, @ TCU
Good Losses:@ Texas Tech, @ Kansas State, Oklahoma State, @ Kansas
Bad Losses:vs Temple, Oklahoma
Iowa State
Good Wins:vs Miami (FL), Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma State, Kansas State, @ Kansas, @ Kansas State, TCU, @ Texas Tech, Baylor
Good Losses:vs Gonzaga, Cincinnati, @ Baylor, @ TCU, Kansas, @ Vanderbilt, West Virginia
Bad Losses:@ Iowa, @ Texas
Baylor
Good Wins:Oregon, vs VCU, vs Michigan State, vs Louisville, Xavier, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, @ Kansas State, @ TCU, Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma State, TCU
Good Losses:@ West Virginia, @ Kansas, Kansas State, @ Texas Tech, Kansas, @ Iowa State
Bad Losses:None
Oklahoma State
Good Wins:@ Wichita State, @ Texas Tech, TCU, Arkansas, @ West Virginia, @ TCU, @ Kansas State, Texas Tech
Good Losses:vs North Carolina, @ Maryland, West Virginia, @ Baylor, Iowa State, @ Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor
Bad Losses:@ Texas
Good Chance
Kansas State - @ TCU (37.6%), Texas Tech (66.8%)
Still a Chance
TCU - Kansas State (62.4%), @ Oklahoma (41.8%)
Texas Tech - Texas (73.3%), @ Kansas State (33.2%)
Kansas State has lost 8 of 10, and they've gone from looking very solid a few weeks ago to bubble trouble now. They really need to win both games this week, but those wins could spell the end for the league's other bubble teams.
Big East
Definitely In
Villanova
Good Wins:@ Purdue, vs Wake Forest, vs Notre Dame, @ Creighton, Marquette, Xavier, Providence, Virginia, @ Providence, @ Xavier, Creighton
Good Losses:@ Butler, @ Marquette, Butler
Bad Losses:None
Butler
Good Wins:Northwestern, vs Vanderbilt, vs Arizona, Cincinnati, vs Indiana, Vermont, Providence, Villanova, Xavier, Marquette, @ Marquette, @ Villanova
Good Losses:@ Creighton, Creighton, @ Providence,
Bad Losses:@ Indiana State, @ St. John's, Georgetown
Probably In
Creighton - St. John's (87.1%), @ Marquette (42.9%)
Good Chance
Xavier - Butler (53.3%), Marquette (64.6%), @ DePaul (66.8%)
Marquette - @ Xavier (35.4%), Creighton (57.1%)
Still a Chance
Providence - DePaul (90.0%), @ St. John's (45.6%)
Out
Seton Hall, Georgetown
Creighton has been right on the edge of locking in for weeks, but just keeps losing at least a game a week. Beat St. John's and they are in, but lose 2 and choke in the first conference tourney game and they may need to hold their breath in 2 weeks.
Big Ten
Definitely In
Purdue
Good Wins:vs Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Illinois, @ Michigan State, Northwestern, @ Maryland, @ Indiana, Michigan State
Good Losses: Villanova, @ Louisville, Minnesota, @ Michigan
Bad Losses:@ Iowa, @ Nebraska
Wisconsin
Good Wins:Syracuse, @ Marquette, @ Indiana, Michigan, @ Minnesota, @ Illinois, Indiana, Maryland
Good Losses:@ Creighton, vs North Carolina, @ Purdue, Northwestern, @ Michigan
Bad Losses:@ Ohio State
Probably In
Minnesota - Nebraska (81.9%)
Michigan - @ Northwestern (39.7%)
Good Chance
Maryland - @ Rutgers (58.2%)
Northwestern - Michigan (60.3%)
Indiana - @ Purdue (17.1%), @ Ohio State (41.6%)
Still a Chance
Michigan State - Wisconsin (48.2%), @ Illinois (35.1%)
Illinois - @ Nebraska (43.8%), Michigan State (64.9%), @ Rutgers (54.9%)
I haven't been a fan of Maryland's chances for a while, and 5 losses in the last 7, including against Iowa and Penn State, confirmed what I felt about them. Lose at Rutgers and they could be in real trouble.
Conference USA
Still a Chance
Middle Tennessee - @ UAB (64.2%), FIU (99.9%), FAU (99.9%)
Not much to say here. The Blue Raiders just need to win these final 3, then not blow it in the early rounds of the conference tourney.
Missouri Valley
Definitely In
Wichita State
Good Wins:Illinois State
Good Losses:vs Louisville, vs Michigan State, Oklahoma State, @ Illinois State
Bad Losses:None
Still a Chance
Illinois State - Conference Tournament
If Illinois State can reach the conference title game against Wichita State and play well against them, they could still get in, but otherwise the Redbirds are in trouble.
Pac 12
Definitely In
Oregon
Good Wins:UCLA, California, @ Utah, Arizona, Utah, @ California
Good Losses:@ Baylor, @ UCLA
Bad Losses:vs Georgetown, @ Colorado
Arizona
Good Wins:vs Michigan State, @ California, Utah, @ UCLA, California
Good Losses:vs Butler, vs Gonzaga, @ Oregon, UCLA
Bad Losses:None
UCLA
Good Wins:@ Kentucky, Michigan, California, @ Utah, Oregon, @ Arizona
Good Losses:@ Oregon, Arizona
Bad Losses:@ USC
Still a Chance
California - @ Utah (35.5%), @ Colorado (44.8%)
Utah - California (64.5%), Stanford (78.7%)
One of these teams will probably get knocked out this week, while the other will still need an upset in the conference tourney to have a realistic chance.
SEC
Definitely In
Kentucky
Good Wins:vs Michigan State, vs North Carolina, Arkansas, @ Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Georgia, @ Georgia, Florida
Good Losses:UCLA, @ Louisville, Kansas, @ Florida
Bad Losses:@ Tennessee
Florida
Good Wins:vs Miami (FL), @ Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, @ Georgia, South Carolina
Good Losses:vs Gonzaga, vs Duke, @ Florida State, @ South Carolina, Vanderbilt, @ Kentucky
Bad Losses:None
Probably In
South Carolina - Mississippi State (85.1%), @ Ole Miss (51.1%)
Good Chance
Arkansas - @ Florida (13.1%), Georgia (70.3%)
Vanderbilt - @ Kentucky (11.3%), Florida (39.4%)
Still a Chance
Georgia - Auburn (74.0%), @ Arkansas (29.7%)
Out
Tennessee
Tennessee has lost 4 of 5 and has no good opponents left, so for now they are out. South Carolina will get in by beating the Bulldogs, while Arkansas and Vanderbilt can solidify their chances with big road wins this week.
West Coast
Definitely In
Gonzaga
Good Wins:vs Florida, vs Iowa State, vs Arizona, Saint Mary's, @ Saint Mary's
Good Losses:None
Bad Losses: BYU
Saint Mary's
Good Wins:@ Dayton
Good Losses:@ Gonzaga, Gonzaga
Bad Losses:UT Arlington
Saint Mary's may not have a bunch of good wins, but their losses are not bad. BYU would need to beat both of these teams to get in, and that would make them conference champs, so there is no need to put them on this page.
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