Only 4 weeks remain in until the tournament committee makes their decisions, and there are plenty of teams vying for those coveted spots. 6 more teams locked down their spots for March Madness, and there were also plenty that slipped a bit this week. Here is my current breakdown of tournament probability by conference, with odds of winning upcoming games in parentheses, and teams that moved up or down in italics:
American
Probably In
Cincinnati - @ SMU (33.4%), @ South Florida (93.8%), Tulsa (96.5%)
SMU - Cincinnati (66.6%), Tulane (99.9%), @ Houston (47.6%)
Good Chance
Houston - SMU (52.4%)
The Cincinnati-SMU winner has a great chance to lock up their big next week, though Houston could throw a wrench into SMU's plans with an upset win.
Atlantic 10
Good Chance
Dayton - @ Saint Louis (84.9%), St. Bonaventure (81.0%)
VCU - Saint Joseph's (89.1%), @ Richmond (49.2%)
Rhode Island - Fordham (96.1%), @ George Mason (54.1%)
Dayton should move up a notch if they don't lose this week, while the others probably won't move either direction.
ACC
Definitely In
Louisville
Good Wins: vs Wichita State, Purdue, Kentucky, vs Indiana, Duke, Clemson, Miami (FL)
Good Losses: vs Baylor, Virginia, @ Notre Dame, @ Florida State, @ Virginia
Bad Losses: None
North Carolina
Good Wins: vs Oklahoma State, vs Wisconsin, Tennessee, @ Clemson, @ Wake Forest, Florida State, Syracuse, Notre Dame
Good Losses: @ Indiana, vs Kentucky, @ Miami (FL), @ Duke
Bad Losses: @ Georgia Tech
Virginia
Good Wins: @ Louisville, Wake Forest, @ Clemson, @ Notre Dame, Louisville
Good Losses: West Virginia, Florida State, @ Villanova, @ Syracuse
Bad Losses: @ Pittsburgh
Probably In
Florida State - @ Pittsburgh (60.5%)
Notre Dame - @ Boston College (71.8%), @ NC State (61.5%)
Duke - @ Virginia (25.8%), Wake Forest (75.8%)
Solid Chance
Wake Forest - @ Clemson (40.9%), @ Duke (24.2%)
Good Chance
Syracuse - Louisville (39.7%)
Miami (FL) - Georgia Tech (78.8%), Clemson (66.5%)
Clemson - Wake Forest (59.1%), @ Miami (FL) (33.5%)
Still a Chance
Virginia Tech - Virginia (34.5%), @ Pittsburgh (38.7%), @ Louisville (9.2%)
Pittsburgh - Virginia Tech (61.3%), Florida State (39.5%)
North Carolina and Virginia are in, the Florida State and Duke are looking to join them this week, which would give the ACC 5 guarantees already. Pittsburgh is starting to show a little life, but they might need two wins this week to keep their chances alive.
Big 12
Definitely In
West Virginia
Good Wins: @ Virginia, @ Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor, Kansas, @ Iowa State, Kansas State
Good Losses: @ Texas Tech, @ Kansas State, Oklahoma State
Bad Losses: vs Temple, Oklahoma
Probably In
Kansas - West Virginia (56.2%), @ Baylor (35.2%)
Baylor - @ Texas Tech (55.2%), Kansas (64.8%)
Iowa State - @ Kansas State (38.8%), TCU (76.1%)
Oklahoma State - @ TCU (47.0%), Oklahoma (88.7%)
Solid Chance
Kansas State - Iowa State (61.2%), @ Texas (50.2%)
Good Chance
TCU - Oklahoma State (53.0%), @ Iowa State (23.9%)
Texas Tech - Baylor (44.8%), @ West Virginia (8.3%)
This should be the week for both Kansas and Baylor to move up to definite status, as long as the loser of their matchup wins their other game. Texas Tech has some great chances to solidify their chances with two tough games.
Big East
Definitely In
Villanova
Good Wins: @ Purdue, Wake Forest, vs Notre Dame, @ Creighton, Xavier, Virginia, @ Xavier
Good Losses: @ Butler
Bad Losses: @ Marquette
Probably In
Creighton - @ Seton Hall (51.0%)
Butler - St. John's (86.1%)
Solid Chance
Xavier - @ Providence (45.5%), @ Marquette (42.6%)
Still a Chance
Marquette - Xavier (57.4%)
Seton Hall - Creighton (49.0%), Villanova (35.4%)
Providence - Xavier (54.5%)
Georgetown - no games
Villanova locked themselves in with that win at Xavier, which made their list of impressive wins grow to 7. Even their so-called bad loss isn't that bad.
Big Ten
Definitely In
Purdue
Good Wins: vs Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Northwestern, @ Maryland, @ Indiana
Good Losses: Villanova, @ Louisville, Minnesota,
Bad Losses: @ Iowa, @ Nebraska
Probably In
Wisconsin - Northwestern (78.9%), @ Michigan (50.5%)
Solid Chance
Northwestern - @ Wisconsin (21.1%), Maryland (66.3%), Rutgers (90.9%)
Minnesota - Indiana (65.9%)
Good Chance
Maryland - @ Northwestern (33.7%)
Michigan - @ Indiana (34.2%), Wisconsin (49.5%)
Indiana - Michigan (65.8%), @ Minnesota (34.1%)
Still a Chance
Michigan State - Ohio State (66.8%), @ Purdue (11.3%)
Ohio State - @ Michigan State (33.2%)
Illinois - @ Iowa (39.1%)
Purdue won at Indiana this week, giving them their 5th strong win, which helped counteract the two bad road losses. Wisconsin should join them next week, even if they lose at Michigan.
Missouri Valley
Probably In
Wichita State - @ Loyola (CHI) (62.9%), @ Southern Illinois (74.7%), Northern Iowa (97.2%)
Still a Chance
Illinois State - @ Missouri State (52.8%)
No change here, with Wichita State not likely to blow it and Illinois State needing to keep winning every game.
Pac 12
Probably In
Arizona - @ Washington (82.2%), @ Washington (74.2%)
Oregon - Utah (80.8%), Colorado (89.0%)
UCLA - Oregon State (99.9%), USC (85.9%)
Good Chance
Utah - @ Oregon (19.2%)
Still a Chance
California - @ Stanford (50.7%)
USC - @ UCLA (14.1%)
Arizona and Oregon looked good enough this week to join UCLA in the probably list, but the Bruins should lock themselves in this week, especially if they beat USC.
SEC
Definitely In
Kentucky
Good Wins: vs North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia
Good Losses: UCLA, @ Louisville, @ Tennessee, Kansas, @ Florida
Bad Losses: None
Florida
Good Wins: vs Miami (FL), Tennessee, Kentucky
Good Losses: vs Gonzaga, vs Duke, @ Florida State, @ South Carolina
Bad Losses: Vanderbilt
Solid Chance
South Carolina - Arkansas (74.7%), @ Vanderbilt (46.4%)
Good Chance
Tennessee - @ Kentucky (11.8%), Missouri (91.1%)
Still a Chance
Arkansas - @ South Carolina (25.3%), Ole Miss (71.6%)
Georgia - Mississippi State (75.9%), Kentucky (37.6%)
Vanderbilt - Texas A&M (68.4%), South Carolina (53.6%)
Out
Texas A&M
Kentucky and Florida both made it in this week, despite only 3 good wins each, but it's just clear that they aren't going to have enough losable games the rest of the way to fall all the way out.
Southern
Still a Chance
East Tennessee State - Samford (82.9%), @ Chattanooga (36.7%)
Chattanooga - @ VMI (75.2%), East Tennessee State (63.3%)
Out
Furman
Furman has the weakest resume of the three leaders, so even by beating Chattanooga they fell off the page, but they still have a great chance at the auto-bid.
WCC
Definitely In
Gonzaga
Good Wins: vs Florida, vs Iowa State, vs Arizona, vs Tennessee, Saint Mary's, @ Saint Mary's
Good Losses: None
Bad Losses: None
Probably In
Saint Mary's - Loyola Marymount (99.3%), @ BYU (54.7%)
It would be a major surprise if Gonzaga loses at all now that they have taken care of Saint Mary's twice. The Gaels should make it as well, with two of their 3 losses coming to the Zags and several good wins.
No comments:
Post a Comment