Sunday, February 19, 2017

College Basketball Tournament Watch - 19 Feb

There are now only 3 weeks left until the tournament field is revealed, and 8 more teams joined my list of teams that will definitely make the tournament this week, bringing the total to 17. 10 of those teams are likely to be conference champions, thereby negating the need to be selected, which leaves approximately 30 open spots to be fought over. Here is my current breakdown of tournament probability by conference, with odds of winning upcoming games in parentheses, and teams that moved up or down in italics:

American

Probably In

SMU - @ Connecticut (63.2%)
Cincinnati - Memphis (87.9%)

Good Chance

Houston - Connecticut (79.6%)

SMU and Cincinnati should lock in their spots this week, barring a loss by either. Houston is probably going to remain right on the bubble.

Atlantic 10

Solid Chance

Dayton - George Mason (83.7%), @ Davidson (50.2%)

Good Chance

VCU - Saint Louis (99.9%), @ Rhode Island (39.4%)

Still a Chance

Rhode Island - @ La Salle (50.8%), VCU (60.6%)

The VCU-Rhode Island game is huge for both teams, with URI needing the win to get back to the right side of the bubble, and VCU getting the chance to solidify their resume.

ACC

Definitely In

Louisville
Good Wins:vs Wichita State, Purdue, Kentucky, vs Indiana, Duke, Clemson, Miami (FL), @ Syracuse, Virginia Tech
Good Losses:vs Baylor, Virginia, @ Notre Dame, @ Florida State, @ Virginia
Bad Losses: None

North Carolina
Good Wins: vs Oklahoma State, vs Wisconsin, Tennessee, @ Clemson, @ Wake Forest, Florida State, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Virginia
Good Losses:@ Indiana, vs Kentucky, @ Miami (FL),  @ Duke
Bad Losses:@ Georgia Tech

Duke
Good Wins:vs Florida, Miami (FL), @ Wake Forest, @ Notre Dame, North Carolina, Clemson, @ Virginia, Wake Forest
Good Losses:vs Kansas, @ Virginia Tech, @ Florida State, @ Louisville
Bad Losses:NC State

Florida State
Good Wins:Minnesota, Florida, Wake Forest, @ Virginia, Virginia Tech, Duke, Notre Dame, Louisville, @ Miami (FL), Clemson
Good Losses:@ North Carolina, @ Syracuse, @ Notre Dame
Bad Losses:vs Temple, @ Georgia Tech, @ Pittsburgh

Virginia
Good Wins:@ Louisville, Wake Forest, @ Clemson, @ Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Louisville
Good Losses: West Virginia, Florida State, @ Villanova, @ Syracuse, @ Virginia Tech, Duke, @ North Carolina
Bad Losses:@ Pittsburgh

Probably In

Notre Dame - no games

Solid Chance

Miami (FL) - @ Virginia (16.6%), Duke (47.8%)
Wake Forest - Pittsburgh (77.0%)

Good Chance

Syracuse - @ Georgia Tech (46.5%), Duke (45.1%)
Virginia Tech - Clemson (62.9%), @ Boston College (61.1%)
Clemson - @ Virginia Tech (37.1%), Florida State (51.0%)

Still a Chance

Pittsburgh - @ Wake Forest (23.0%), North Carolina (32.8%)

Florida State backed in this week, but with 10 quality wins, they are not going to be left out. Duke has most of its good wins over the past few weeks and are headed in the right direction for sure. Pittsburgh is barely hanging on, but can really boost their chances with a pair of wins this week. Miami could have the most to gain with Virginia and Duke on the schedule.

Big 12

Definitely In

Kansas
Good Wins:vs Duke, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, @ Iowa State, @ Kentucky, Baylor, @ Kansas State, @ Texas Tech, West Virginia, @ Baylor, 
Good Losses:vs Indiana, @ West Virginia, Iowa State, 
Bad Losses:None

West Virginia
Good Wins:@ Virginia, @ Oklahoma State, Baylor, Kansas, @ Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech
Good Losses:@ Texas Tech, @ Kansas State, Oklahoma State, @ Kansas
Bad Losses:vs Temple, Oklahoma

Baylor
Good Wins:Oregon, vs VCU, vs Louisville, Xavier, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, @ Kansas State, Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma State, 
Good Losses:@ West Virginia, @ Kansas, Kansas State, @ Texas Tech, Kansas
Bad Losses:None

Probably In

Iowa State - @ Texas Tech (47.1%), Baylor (60.6%)
Oklahoma State - @ Kansas State (40.0%), Texas Tech (75.5%)

Solid Chance

Kansas State - Oklahoma State (60.0%), @ Oklahoma (53.4%)

Good Chance

Texas Tech - Iowa State (52.9%), @ Oklahoma State (24.5%)

Still a Chance

TCU - @ Kansas (14.1%), West Virginia (35.7%)

Kansas and Baylor won't be missing out, especially after the great game they played this week. Iowa State and Oklahoma State each have a good chance to join them this week, and TCU has the most important week of their season coming up. They won't be knocked out completely with two losses, but a win in either game would be huge for their chances.

Big East

Definitely In

Villanova 
Good Wins:@ Purdue, vs Wake Forest, vs Notre Dame, @ Creighton, Marquette, Xavier, Virginia, @ Xavier
Good Losses:@ Butler, @ Marquette
Bad Losses:None

Probably In

Butler - DePaul (99.9%), @ Villanova (19.7%)
Creighton - Georgetown (78.2%), Providence (80.3%), @ Villanova (19.6%)

Good Chance

Xavier - @ Seton Hall (41.9%)
Marquette - St. John's (78.3%), @ Providence (39.6%)

Still a Chance

Providence - @ Creighton (19.7%), Marquette (60.4%)
Seton Hall - Xavier (58.1%), @ DePaul (63.0%)
Georgetown - @ Creighton (21.8%), DePaul (92.6%), @ St. John's (46.0%)

Marquette's blowout of Xavier pushed both teams closer to the bubble, but from opposite directions. All 3 teams that are still on the outside have great opportunities this week to get big wins, with Creighton the target of two of them. If the Bluejays lose one or both, they'll probably be waiting at least another week to lock in, but Butler can guarantee their spot with a win at Villanova, or even a close loss.

Big Ten

Definitely In

Purdue
Good Wins:vs Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Northwestern, @ Maryland, @ Indiana
Good Losses: Villanova, @ Louisville, Minnesota
Bad Losses:@ Iowa, @ Nebraska

Wisconsin
Good Wins:vs Tennessee, Syracuse, @ Marquette, @ Indiana, Michigan, @ Minnesota, Indiana
Good Losses:@ Creighton, vs North Carolina, @ Purdue, Northwestern, @ Michigan
Bad Losses:None

Solid Chance

Maryland - @ Wisconsin (24.4%), Minnesota (66.9%), Iowa (79.5%)
Northwestern - @ Illinois (42.4%)
Minnesota - Michigan (62.7%), @ Maryland (33.1%)
Michigan - @ Minnesota (37.3%), @ Rutgers (63.9%), Purdue (49.3%)

Good Chance

Indiana - @ Iowa (47.0%)

Still a Chance

Michigan State - Nebraska (72.1%)
Illinois - Northwestern (57.6%)

Out

Ohio State

Wisconsin lost twice this week, but all of their good wins are looking better than they did a week ago. Maryland should move up a spot next week, especially if they beat the Badgers, while Illinois needs a win to stay alive.

Colonial

Still a Chance

UNC Wilmington - Towson (80.1%), Northeastern (82.8%)

The Seahawks are a pretty good team, but they really need to win every game until the conference final to get an at-large berth.

Conference USA

Still a Chance

Middle Tennessee - no games

Same goes for Middle Tennessee in their conference.

Missouri Valley

Definitely In

Wichita State
Good Wins:Illinois State
Good Losses:vs Louisville, Oklahoma State, @ Illinois State
Bad Losses:vs Michigan State

Still a Chance

Illinois State - Loyola (CHI) (77.5%), Southern Illinois (88.7%), @ Northern Iowa (57.3%)

Although Wichita State has only one quality win all season, the chance of them losing to anyone but Illinois State the rest of the way is tiny, so I don't see them missing out. Illinois State needs to win out and play well against the Shockers in the MVC final to get an at-large berth at this point.

Pac 12

Definitely In

Oregon
Good Wins:vs Tennessee, UCLA, Arizona
Good Losses:@ Baylor, @ UCLA
Bad Losses:vs Georgetown, @ Colorado

UCLA
Good Wins:@ Kentucky, Michigan, Oregon
Good Losses:@ Oregon, Arizona
Bad Losses:@ USC

Probably In

Arizona - USC (82.3%), UCLA (58.8%)

Still a Chance

California - Oregon (45.8%), Oregon State (99.9%)
Utah - @ Oregon State (77.5%), @ Utah (43.7%)

Out

USC

Arizona should lock it in this week, although a pair of losses could delay that. USC is considered by many to be somewhat safe, but they only have 2 quality wins this year, and several blowout losses. A win against the Wildcats would go a long way for the Trojans.

SEC

Definitely In

Kentucky
Good Wins:vs North Carolina, Arkansas, South Carolina, Tennessee
Good Losses: UCLA, @ Louisville, @ Tennessee, Kansas, @ Florida
Bad Losses:None

Florida
Good Wins:vs Miami (FL), @ Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky
Good Losses:vs Gonzaga, vs Duke, @ Florida State, @ South Carolina
Bad Losses:Vanderbilt

Solid Chance

South Carolina - @ Florida (14.9%), Tennessee (70.5%)

Good Chance

Arkansas - Texas A&M (71.3%), @ Auburn (48.4%)
Tennessee - Vanderbilt (67.7%), @ South Carolina (29.5%)

Still a Chance

Vanderbilt - @ Tennessee (32.3%), Mississippi State (74.3%)
Georgia - @ Alabama (41.9%), LSU (90.6%)

South Carolina was close to moving up this week, but they blew it against Arkansas and Vanderbilt, but that helped both of those teams make a stronger bubble case, so it's not all bad. 

West Coast

Definitely In

Gonzaga
Good Wins:vs Florida, vs Iowa State, vs Arizona, vs Tennessee, Saint Mary's, @ Saint Mary's
Good Losses:None
Bad Losses:None

Probably In

Saint Mary's - @ Pepperdine (93.5%), Santa Clara (95.8%)

I don't see Saint Mary's missing out, especially with only 3 losses, 2 to the Zags. Make it through this week unscathed, and they should punch their ticket.


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