Updated NBA Playoff Odds

The first round of the playoffs is in full swing, and injuries have already made a huge impact, with Derrick Rose and Amare Stoudemire leaving their teams shorthanded with serious injuries, and Rajon Rondo sitting out a game due to suspension. Four underdogs have already stolen home court advantage from the favorites, which means that the odds have been shaken up quite a bit. These are the newly updated odds of each team advancing in the playoffs and winning the championship this year.

Most Likely First Round Upsets

1. LA Clippers over Memphis - 57.7%
2. Philadelphia over Chicago - 53.3%
3. Denver over LA Lakers - 39.9%
4. Atlanta over Boston - 31.2%

When the Clippers stormed back from 27 down to steal Game 1 in Memphis, it marked LA's other team as the most likely to pull an upset in the first round. That win gave them the home court advantage in the series, with three of the next four games in Los Angeles. Philadelphia wasn't even on the upset radar heading into the series with Chicago, but when Derrick Rose went down late in Game 1 with a torn ACL, Chicago was deflated and the 76ers have taken two straight games and are now favored to win the series. Denver's upset odds have decreased slightly because they weren't able to win in Los Angeles, but by winning their first home game of the series they proved that they are still alive and could knock off the Lakers. Atlanta also saw their odds dip after Boston took Game 2 in Atlanta without Rondo, but these two teams are so evenly matched that Atlanta could still take it, but they must win at least once in Boston.

Most Likely First Round Winners

1. Oklahoma City over Dallas - 98.3%
2. Miami over New York - 98.0%
3. San Antonio over Utah - 97.6%
4. Indiana over Orlando - 83.7%

The top three are all looking like sweeps, with the Spurs a little behind the others in the odds since they've only played two games. Orlando has at least put up a fight and even won a game in Indiana, but the Pacers took back the home court by returning the favor in the first game in Orlando. These four series will not last much longer.

Most Likely to Make Conference Finals

Previous ranking and percent change both in parentheses.

1. (1) San Antonio - 82.0% (+8.3)
2. (3) Oklahoma City - 72.1% (+14.7)
3. (4) Miami - 70.1% (+27.6)
4. (2) Chicago - 33.9% (-25.6)
5. (8) Boston - 28.1% (+12.0)
6. (5) Indiana - 26.9% (-3.0)
7. (13) Philadelphia - 25.1% (+16.6)
8. (11) LA Lakers - 13.7% (+3.2)
9. (6) Denver - 13.4% (-10.7)
10. (9) Atlanta - 12.9% (-3.0)
11. (10) LA Clippers - 10.8% (-1.8)
12. (12) Memphis - 6.4% (-3.5)
13. (15) Orlando - 2.1% (-4.7)

The other three teams are so unlikely to even win in the first round that their odds of winning two rounds is basically zero. The chance that we'll see the Spurs and Thunder battle it out in the West is looking pretty good, and it would be a great matchup of youth vs. experience. Miami has done more for its image this week than any other team, and that has allowed them to make a big jump here, even as their opponent in the Conference Finals becomes less clear.

Most Likely to Make NBA Finals

1. (1) San Antonio - 60.0% (+6.0)
2. (4) Miami - 42.2% (+23.2)
3. (3) Oklahoma City - 27.8% (+2.4)
4. (2) Chicago - 21.0% (-22.8)
5. (5) Indiana - 11.9% (+1.7)
6. (6) Boston - 10.3% (+2.4)
7. (12) Philadelphia - 9.1% (+5.6)
8. (7) Atlanta - 4.8% (-2.7)
9. (10) LA Clippers - 4.1% (-1.1)
10. (8) Denver - 3.4% (-3.7)
11. (13) LA Lakers - 2.3% (+0.2)
12. (11) Memphis - 2.1% (-1.5)

It is becoming increasingly likely that the Spurs will make their fifth trip to the Finals in the Tim Duncan era, and while Miami is their most likely opponent, there are still four or five teams in the East with a reasonable shot of meeting them there. Oklahoma City is the only team in the West who looks like a candidate to take out the Spurs before that point.

Most Likely to Win the NBA Championship

1. (1) San Antonio - 43.5% (+6.2)
2. (4) Miami - 16.9% (+10.0)
3. (3) Oklahoma City - 15.9% (+1.5)
4. (2) Chicago - 10.2% (-13.8)
5. (5) Indiana - 3.1% (+0.3)
6. (7) Boston - 2.5% (+0.2)
7. (NR) Philadelphia - 2.2% (+2.2)
8. (9) LA Clippers - 1.6% (-0.4)
9. (5) Denver - 1.3% (-1.5)
10. (8) Atlanta - 1.2% (-0.9)

There are still only 4 teams that have a real chance to win the championship, and San Antonio is definitely the favorite at this point. Miami is the hottest team in the playoffs right now, and Chicago is still in the running despite losing Rose, because they played a good portion of the season without him anyway and still earned the top overall seed, which gives them home court advantage no matter who they play the rest of the way.