The second round is now in full swing, and aside from the Pacers going up 2-1 on the Heat, there are no real surprises. The Spurs have continued to dominate, winning their 16th straight game, with 12 of those coming by double digits, and we may be getting to the point where the question goes from "Will the Spurs win the title?" to "Will the Spurs lose a game?" Here are the updated odds of each team advancing in the playoffs and ultimately winning the championship.
Odds of Making the Conference Finals
1. (1) San Antonio - 95.9% (+10.4)
2. (2) Oklahoma City - 86.7% (+13.2)
3. (6) Indiana - 61.3% (+30.5)
4. (4) Boston - 52.0% (-0.1)
5. (5) Philadelphia - 48.0% (+0.1)
6. (3) Miami - 38.7% (-30.5)
7. (8) LA Lakers - 13.3% (+2.6)
8. (10) LA Clippers - 4.1% (-2.1)
A Spurs-Thunder matchup is as close to a sure thing as I've ever seen, but the East is still up in the air, with Boston and Philly playing to a draw so far, making the 7-game series I predicted look pretty likely. Indiana has taken the edge over Miami, but the Heat aren't dead, because they still have the best player in the league on their side, even though nearly every member of the Pacer bench could start in Miami.
Odds of Making the NBA Finals
1. (1) San Antonio - 68.4% (+6.6)
2. (6) Indiana - 34.4% (+18.6)
3. (3) Oklahoma City - 29.0% (+1.0)
4. (2) Miami - 25.8% (-21.2)
5. (5) Philadelphia - 19.92% (+1.9)
6. (4) Boston - 19.85% (+0.7)
7. (10) LA Lakers - 1.4% (-0.3)
8. (9) LA Clippers - 1.2% (-0.8)
The workers at the Staples Center who are working so hard to get the place ready each night for one of three playoff teams will finally be getting a break soon, because they will not have to worry about laying out the basketball court again for a while. Every remaining team in the East has a viable shot at the title, but the Pacers are the current favorites, which could set up an all-ABA matchup between them and the Spurs, the only former ABA franchise to win an NBA title.
Odds of Winning the Championship
1. (1) San Antonio - 55.0% (+8.6)
2. (3) Oklahoma City - 19.3% (+2.2)
3. (2) Miami - 8.4% (-10.6)
4. (6) Indiana - 8.1% (+4.1)
5. (5) Philadelphia - 4.4% (-0.3)
6. (4) Boston - 3.8% (-1.2)
The NBA Championship trophy is almost definitely going to stay in the West this year, unless the Spurs and Thunder spend so much time beating each other up that somebody from the East is able to take advantage of extra rest and steal a couple of early games in the Finals. We may be looking at the best Spurs team that has ever played, which is saying a lot considering their history since the arrival of Tim Duncan.
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