NBA Playoff Odds - 12 May

The first round is nearly over, with two final games taking place this weekend, but since the Eastern Conference finished their first round two days ago, they are starting the second round this evening. The only real surprise in the first round was Philadelphia's upset over Chicago, which was helped along by the devastating injury to Derrick Rose, but the rest of the series went pretty much according to plan. Here are the results of my first round predictions, along with the updated odds for each team advancing in the playoffs.

First Round Review

These are my original first round predictions, along with the number of games different the actual result was.

Bulls in 5 - 4
Celtics in 6 - 0
Pacers in 5 - 0
Heat in 7 - 2
Spurs in 5 - 1
Clippers in 6 - 1 or 2
Nuggets in 6 - 1 or 2
Thunder in 5 - 1

I correctly predicted the winner of 5 of the 6 series that have ended so far, and was within 1 game of being exactly correct in 4 of them. If both road teams win in game 7 this weekend, I will have picked 7 of the 8 series  correctly, with 6 being within 1 game of perfection. And in case you're wondering, here are the odds of each team pulling off the first round upset:

Nuggets over Lakers - 48.2%
Clippers over Grizzlies - 42.1%

Odds of Making the Conference Finals

1. (1) San Antonio - 85.5% (+3.5)
2. (2) Oklahoma City - 73.5% (+1.4)
3. (3) Miami - 69.2% (-0.9)
4. (5) Boston - 52.1% (+24.0)
5. (7) Philadelphia - 47.9% (+22.8)
6. (6) Indiana - 30.8% (+3.9)
7. (9) Denver - 15.8% (+2.4)
8. (8) LA Lakers - 10.7% (-3.0)
9. (12) Memphis - 8.3% (+1.9)
10. (11) LA Clippers - 6.2% (-4.6)

With both Los Angeles teams blowing 3-1 leads, each lost a lot of momentum and saw their odds of reaching the Conference Finals diminish, while nearly every other team improved its standing this week, especially Boston and Philadelphia, each of which was far from a lock to pass the first round a week ago but took care of business in 6 games. The Spurs and Thunder are becoming even more likely to meet because of the extra rest they are getting while their future opponents are being beat up in the first round.

Odds of Making the NBA Finals

1. (1) San Antonio - 61.8% (+1.8)
2. (2) Miami - 47.0% (+4.8)
3. (3) Oklahoma City - 28.0% (+0.2)
4. (6) Boston - 19.2% (+8.9)
5. (7) Philadelphia - 18.0% (+8.9)
6. (5) Indiana - 15.8% (+3.9)
7. (10) Denver - 3.9% (+0.5)
8. (12) Memphis - 2.7% (+0.6)
9. (9) LA Clippers - 2.0% (-2.1)
10. (11) LA Lakers - 1.7% (-0.6)

Even with two teams still alive, Los Angeles is very unlikely to see a team in the NBA Finals, with only the city of Memphis having worse overall odds of the 9 cities with a team still alive. Miami was helped by having two Eastern Conference teams advance despite not having home court in the first round, and it's becoming increasingly likely that LeBron will face another team from Texas in the Finals.

Odds of Winning the NBA Championship

1. (1) San Antonio - 46.4% (+2.9)
2. (2) Miami - 19.0% (+2.1)
3. (3) Oklahoma City - 17.1% (+1.2)
4. (6) Boston - 5.0% (+2.5)
5. (7) Philadelphia - 4.7% (+2.5)
6. (5) Indiana - 4.0% (+0.9)
7. (9) Denver - 1.6% (+0.3)
8. (NR) Memphis - 1.0% (+1.0)

The Spurs' odds of winning the title are inching closer to 50-50 every day, and it's no surprise if you step back and consider how well they've played lately. Over the last two months, they have lost only three games, and they didn't even try in one of those, and they also won twice when they weren't trying. They have had two 11-game winning streaks this year, and are currently on a 14-game streak, last losing to the Lakers over a month ago.

Updated Playoff Predictions

Second Round

Celtics over 76ers in 7
Heat over Pacers in 5
Spurs over Grippers in 5
Thunder over Nakers in 5

Conference Finals

Heat over Celtics in 5
Spurs over Thunder in 5

NBA Finals

Spurs over Heat in 6