NBA Playoff Odds - 5 May

With today being a day of rest and a travel day for NBA teams, I've decided to do another update to my playoff odds, taking into account performance and results of the first two games of the second round for each team. Not only do I have a new title favorite this time, I also have a brand new runner-up for them to beat. Here are the odds of each team advancing, with change from pre-series odds in parentheses.

Odds of Making Conference Finals

1. Miami - 89.6% (+17.9)

2. Chicago - 87.3% (-8.8)

3. Dallas - 83.5% (+44.1)

4. Oklahoma City - 50.2% (-12.2)

5. Memphis - 49.8% (+12.2)

6. LA Lakers - 16.5% (-44.1)

7. Atlanta - 12.7% (+8.8)

8. Boston - 10.4% (-17.9)

Dallas' shutdown of Kobe and the Lakers on the road has transformed them from an average team in the West to a clear favorite. Memphis has closed the gap considerably with Oklahoma City, and with home court advantage currently favoring the Grizzlies, it should be a great series. Atlanta pulled off a nice surprise in game 1, but most likely won't be able to do it 3 more times. Boston is in even worse shape, even with 3 home games possibly remaining.

Odds of Making the NBA Finals

1. Miami - 53.4% (+16.2)

2. Dallas - 52.8% (+29.5)

3. Chicago - 41.8% (-11.3)

4. Oklahoma City - 19.5% (-5.3)

5. Memphis - 17.1% (+5.5)

6. LA Lakers - 10.6% (-29.7)

7. Boston - 4.2% (-5.2)

8. Atlanta - 0.6% (+0.4)

It appears that we may be headed for a rematch of the 2006 Finals, when Dwyane Wade and the Heat came back from a 2-0 deficit to beat Dirk Nowitzki and the Dallas Mavericks in 6 games. Those two stars haven't changed, but the majority of the other players for both teams have changed. Chicago is still lurking as a possible Miami-beater, but they are currently the second option in the East. Dallas is in complete control out West right now.

Odds of Winning the NBA Championship

1. Miami - 36.4% (+11.5)

2. Chicago - 25.7% (-8.3)

3. Dallas - 20.8% (+12.4)

4. Oklahoma City - 6.2% (-2.0)

5. Memphis - 4.7% (+1.8)

6. LA Lakers - 4.3% (-13.2)

7. Boston - 1.9% (-2.3)

8. Atlanta - 0.1% (+0.1)

Miami has taken over the mantle of title favorite from the Bulls this week by controlling every facet of their series against Boston, while Chicago again showed a little weakness by losing to Atlanta at home. The Lakers are now the least likely Western team to win the title, mostly because of the heavy odds against them even beating Dallas at this point. If they somehow beat Dallas, look for them to rise back to the top of the West, although it's pretty clear that Miami and Chicago will remain the favorites for as long as they're around.

NBA Player of the Day

Joakim Noah - CHI - 19 pts, 14 reb, 2 ast, 3 stl, 6-8 FG, 7-8 FT

Rose may have been given the MVP trophy before the game, but the most valuable player in this game was Noah, who had his best winning game in the playoffs so far. His performance helped ensure that they wouldn't have to go down 2-0 at home, and kept them in the race for the title.

Predictions - 5 May

Upset picks are in italics.

MLB

Astros at Reds - Reds by 0.4

Yankees at Tigers - Yankees by 1.1

Blue Jays at Rays - Jays by 1.8

Giants at Mets - Giants by 1.4

Angels at Red Sox - Sox by 0.2

Marlins at Cardinals - Marlins by 0.8

Orioles at Royals - Royals by 0.5

Indians at Athletics - Indians by 2.6

Nationals at Phillies - Phillies by 0.5

Brewers at Braves - Brewers by 0.2

Rockies at Diamondbacks - Rockies by 0.2

Rangers at Mariners - Rangers by 2.3

Prediction Results - 4 May

NBA Playoffs: 1-1 (.500) 37-15 overall (.712)

MLB: 8-8 (.500) 164-152 overall (.519)

Upsets: 3-6 (.333) 229-160 overall (.589)