Saturday, May 21, 2011

NBA Playoff MVP Rankings - 21 May

We have entered the conference finals, and the demise of the Grizzlies has opened up 2 new spots in the current top 5. While picking the top 5 players remaining is actually quite easy, ranking them is a bit more challenging. Each surviving team has won 9 playoff games, and each one has a star player (or in Miami's case, two) who would be the obvious Finals MVP if they lead their team to the title. As of today, here is my statistical ranking of each of the top five remaining players, along with their current playoff averages and their previous ranking in parentheses.

1. Dwyane Wade - MIA - 25.3 pts, 7.3 reb, 4.6 ast, 1.3 blk, 1.8 stl (NR)
Wade did not have a dominant game in the first two games of the Chicago series, but his 7.3 rebounds per game are even more impressive when you consider that they are coming from a 6'4" guard. His free throw shooting has also jumped by 5% in the playoffs, a very sizable jump and extremely important since he is the only player on this list who has won a title before.

2. Dirk Nowitzki - DAL - 28.5 pts, 7.9 reb, 3.1 ast, 60% 3PP, 92% FTP (NR)
Dirk padded his credentials this week by averaging 37.5 points over the first two games of the conference finals, which included 48 points in game 1 and a record 24 for 24 free throw performance in that same game. He and Wade appear to be destined for a Finals rematch after 5 years of disappointment for each team.

3. LeBron James - MIA - 25.4 pts, 9.2 reb, 5.0 ast, 1.3 blk, 1.5 stl (3)
LeBron didn't play too well in game 1, but he rebounded strongly in game 2, scoring 29 points and grabbing 10 rebounds while playing with flu-like symptoms. During the playoffs he has been scoring less but rebounding more, a combination that doesn't always earn love from voters.

4. Derrick Rose - CHI - 28.2 pts, 4.3 reb, 8.0 ast, 1.4 stl, 82% FTP (1)
Rose is back to shooting less than 40% again to start the conference finals, and Chicago lost it hard-earned home-court advantage as a result. If Rose had just shot at his season averages in game 2, the Bulls would have scored 9 more points, which would have made the game close enough that it could have gone either way in the final moments.

5. Kevin Durant - OKC - 29.4 pts, 7.4 reb, 2.6 ast, 1.1 blk, 84% FTP (2)
Durant's 32 points per game to start the conference finals has kept him atop the scoring leaders, but his free throw percentage has actually dropped in the postseason overall, and his other numbers haven't varied much from what he posted in the regular season. On the plus side, he did lead the Thunder to an upset over Dallas that gave them the home-court advantage while playing alongside 4 bench players for most of the 4th quarter.

Prediction Results - 13-20 May

NBA Playoffs: 4-2 (.667) 50-20 overall (.714)

Predictions - 21 May

Mavericks at Thunder - Thunder by 2


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