Predictions - 7 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Thunder at Grizzlies - Grizz by 2

Heat at Celtics - Celtics by 1

MLB

Rays at Orioles - Rays by 2.4

Twins at Red Sox - Sox by 1.3

Reds at Cubs - Reds by 1.4

Tigers at Blue Jays - Jays by 0.6

Brewers at Cardinals - Cards by 2.1

Braves at Phillies - Braves by 0.1

Astros at Pirates - Pirates by 0.1

Athletics at Royals - Royals by 1.0

Dodgers at Mets - Mets by 2.4

Nationals at Marlins - Marlins by 0.8

Yankees at Rangers - Yankees by 0.4

Diamondbacks at Padres - Padres by 0.1

Indians at Angels - Indians by 0.3

Rockies at Giants - Rockies by 0.9

White Sox at Mariners - Mariners by 0.8

NBA Player of the Day

Derrick Rose - CHI - 44 pts, 5 reb, 7 ast, 16-27 FG, 4-7 3P, 8-9 FT

Rose validated his MVP award last night by destroying the Atlanta Hawks and taking complete control of their second-round series. He hadn't hit more than 25 points in a game since game 2 of the first round, and the 44 points he scored became his new career high. Even Magic Johnson said that Rose reminded him of Michael Jordan with his performance.

Prediction Results - 6 May

NBA Playoffs: 2-0 (1.000) 39-15 overall (.722)

MLB: 9-6 (.600) 177-166 overall (.516)

Upsets: 5-0 (1.000) 234-163 overall (.589)

NBA Playoff MVP Rankings - 6 May

Miami and Dallas have raced out to 2-0 leads in their respective series, with Dallas making it even more impressive by achieving the feat on the road against the defending champs, while Miami did it at home against the defending conference champions. What does this mean for each team's star's chance of winning the Finals MVP? Just read on. Previous ranking is in parentheses.

1. Dwyane Wade - MIA - 25.3 pts, 7.3 reb, 4.9 ast, 1.7 blk, 1.6 stl (1)

Wade held on to the top spot by outscoring his slightly more famous teammate, LeBron James, in the first two games of the series against Boston. Miami has made themselves the title favorite with dominating performances over last year's Eastern Conference champions, and Wade has been their best player over the past two weeks.

2. LeBron James - MIA - 25.4 pts, 9.4 reb, 5.4 ast, 1.0 blk, 1.0 stl (3)

James was certainly no slouch this week either, especially considering the 35 points he put up in game 2 against the Celtics. It makes me wonder if the NBA would consider awarding co-Finals MVP's to the two Heat superstars, much like when Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling dominated the 2001 World Series for Arizona, but made it difficult to decide which was better.

3. Kevin Durant - OKC - 31.6 pts, 6.3 reb, 3.1 ast, 1.0 blk (2)

Durant dropped a spot this week because the Thunder lost game 1 and gave up home court advantage to the Grizzlies in the process. He made sure they didn't lose game two and end up in a 2-0 hole like the Lakers, which is what kept him in the hunt at #3.

4. Dirk Nowitzki - DAL - 27.0 pts, 8.5 reb, 2.9 ast (5)

Dirk was on fire this week, shooting over 52% from the field, 60% from three, and 90% from the free throw line while leading Dallas in scoring and upsetting the Lakers twice in Los Angeles in three days. Barring the kind of collapse he had in 2006 and 2007, he is very much in the running to take this title.

5. Derrick Rose - CHI - 26.7 pts, 4.9 reb, 7.3 ast, 1.3 blk, 2.1 stl (4)

Rose won the regular season MVP this week, but the playoffs are still another matter. His playoff shooting percentage is still 7 points lower than his regular season percentage, and the Bulls have lost twice in the playoffs to teams they should have swept. He's obviously still in the running, but Chicago and Rose aren't dominating like they should.

Predictions - 6 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Bulls at Hawks - Bulls by 4

Lakers at Mavericks - Mavs by 3

MLB

Reds at Cubs - Reds by 1.7

Rays at Orioles - Rays by 0.5

Braves at Phillies - Phillies by 0.5

Astros at Pirates - Astros by 0.4

Tigers at Blue Jays - Jays by 0.3

Twins at Red Sox - Sox by 2.2

Dodgers at Mets - Mets by 1.3

Nationals at Marlins - Marlins by 1.0

Yankees at Rangers - Yankees by 0.1

Athletics at Royals - Royals by 1.6

Brewers at Cardinals - Cards by 1.3

Diamondbacks at Padres - D-Backs by 0.4

Indians at Angels - Indians by 1.0

White Sox at Mariners - Mariners by 1.4

Rockies at Giants - Giants by 0.3

Prediction Results - 5 May

MLB: 4-8 (.333) 168-160 overall (.512)

Upsets: 0-3 (.000) 229-163 overall (.584)

NBA Playoff Odds - 5 May

With today being a day of rest and a travel day for NBA teams, I've decided to do another update to my playoff odds, taking into account performance and results of the first two games of the second round for each team. Not only do I have a new title favorite this time, I also have a brand new runner-up for them to beat. Here are the odds of each team advancing, with change from pre-series odds in parentheses.

Odds of Making Conference Finals

1. Miami - 89.6% (+17.9)

2. Chicago - 87.3% (-8.8)

3. Dallas - 83.5% (+44.1)

4. Oklahoma City - 50.2% (-12.2)

5. Memphis - 49.8% (+12.2)

6. LA Lakers - 16.5% (-44.1)

7. Atlanta - 12.7% (+8.8)

8. Boston - 10.4% (-17.9)

Dallas' shutdown of Kobe and the Lakers on the road has transformed them from an average team in the West to a clear favorite. Memphis has closed the gap considerably with Oklahoma City, and with home court advantage currently favoring the Grizzlies, it should be a great series. Atlanta pulled off a nice surprise in game 1, but most likely won't be able to do it 3 more times. Boston is in even worse shape, even with 3 home games possibly remaining.

Odds of Making the NBA Finals

1. Miami - 53.4% (+16.2)

2. Dallas - 52.8% (+29.5)

3. Chicago - 41.8% (-11.3)

4. Oklahoma City - 19.5% (-5.3)

5. Memphis - 17.1% (+5.5)

6. LA Lakers - 10.6% (-29.7)

7. Boston - 4.2% (-5.2)

8. Atlanta - 0.6% (+0.4)

It appears that we may be headed for a rematch of the 2006 Finals, when Dwyane Wade and the Heat came back from a 2-0 deficit to beat Dirk Nowitzki and the Dallas Mavericks in 6 games. Those two stars haven't changed, but the majority of the other players for both teams have changed. Chicago is still lurking as a possible Miami-beater, but they are currently the second option in the East. Dallas is in complete control out West right now.

Odds of Winning the NBA Championship

1. Miami - 36.4% (+11.5)

2. Chicago - 25.7% (-8.3)

3. Dallas - 20.8% (+12.4)

4. Oklahoma City - 6.2% (-2.0)

5. Memphis - 4.7% (+1.8)

6. LA Lakers - 4.3% (-13.2)

7. Boston - 1.9% (-2.3)

8. Atlanta - 0.1% (+0.1)

Miami has taken over the mantle of title favorite from the Bulls this week by controlling every facet of their series against Boston, while Chicago again showed a little weakness by losing to Atlanta at home. The Lakers are now the least likely Western team to win the title, mostly because of the heavy odds against them even beating Dallas at this point. If they somehow beat Dallas, look for them to rise back to the top of the West, although it's pretty clear that Miami and Chicago will remain the favorites for as long as they're around.

NBA Player of the Day

Joakim Noah - CHI - 19 pts, 14 reb, 2 ast, 3 stl, 6-8 FG, 7-8 FT

Rose may have been given the MVP trophy before the game, but the most valuable player in this game was Noah, who had his best winning game in the playoffs so far. His performance helped ensure that they wouldn't have to go down 2-0 at home, and kept them in the race for the title.

Predictions - 5 May

Upset picks are in italics.

MLB

Astros at Reds - Reds by 0.4

Yankees at Tigers - Yankees by 1.1

Blue Jays at Rays - Jays by 1.8

Giants at Mets - Giants by 1.4

Angels at Red Sox - Sox by 0.2

Marlins at Cardinals - Marlins by 0.8

Orioles at Royals - Royals by 0.5

Indians at Athletics - Indians by 2.6

Nationals at Phillies - Phillies by 0.5

Brewers at Braves - Brewers by 0.2

Rockies at Diamondbacks - Rockies by 0.2

Rangers at Mariners - Rangers by 2.3

Prediction Results - 4 May

NBA Playoffs: 1-1 (.500) 37-15 overall (.712)

MLB: 8-8 (.500) 164-152 overall (.519)

Upsets: 3-6 (.333) 229-160 overall (.589)

MLB Rankings - 4 May

Last week, the New York Yankees took the top spot by being ranked #1 in both offense and defense. It looked like they would probably hold their spot for a while, but another team improved enough in both aspects this week that they are now the best on both sides of the ball. What did it take to pass the Yankees? Only the first perfect week we've seen from a baseball team all season. So the team with the best overall record, longest winning streak, best offense, best defense, and the top overall spot in my rankings is...

Rank. Team (Wk) (Overall) Off/Def (Prev)

1. Cleveland (6-0) (20-8) 1/1 (3)

2. NY Yankees (5-2) (17-10) 2/6 (1)

3. Saint Louis (5-2) (17-13) 3/3 (8)

4. Philadelphia (4-1) (19-9) 6/2 (14)

5. Atlanta (3-2) (15-15) 4/4 (10)

6. Florida (3-3) (18-10) 7/5 (12)

7. Texas (2-5) (16-14) 5/8 (2)

8. Boston (4-3) (14-15) 14/7 (4)

9. LA Angels (2-4) (16-14) 11/11 (5)

10. Toronto (2-4) (13-16) 9/15 (6)

11. Kansas City (4-2) (16-13) 12/12 (7)

12. Washington (4-3) (14-15) 13/10 (21)

13. Seattle (5-1) (14-16) 10/18 (27)

14. Cincinnati (2-3) (14-15) 15/13 (11)

15. NY Mets (2-4) (12-17) 8/22 (20)

16. Milwaukee (1-4) (13-15) 16/14 (16)

17. Colorado (1-3) (17-10) 21/9 (13)

18. Tampa Bay (5-2) (16-13) 22/16 (15)

19. Arizona (3-3) (13-15) 18/20 (25)

20. Houston (3-3) (12-17) 17/24 (29)

21. San Francisco (3-4) (14-15) 19/23 (24)

22. Oakland (4-2) (15-15) 25/17 (17)

23. Pittsburgh (4-3) (14-16) 20/26 (26)

24. Baltimore (4-3) (13-15) 23/25 (19)

25. Detroit (1-6) (13-17) 24/21 (9)

26. San Diego (3-3) (12-18) 27/19 (28)

27. LA Dodgers (3-3) (15-16) 26/27 (23)

28. Chi Cubs (3-3) (13-16) 28/28 (30)

29. Chi Sox (1-6) (11-20) 29/29 (18)

30. Minnesota (1-6) (10-18) 30/30 (22)

April Showers

Minnesota took over the worst spot in both offense and defense this week, thank to a week where they were outscored 54-15 in 7 games. Their lone win came in Chicago last night, against the equally anemic White Sox, and it took a no-hitter from Francisco Liriano to win the game, which ended with a final score of 1-0. I don't think the pitching was that great, the offenses were just that bad.

Speaking of that embarrassing no-hitter last night, the Chicago White Sox were nearly as bad as Minnesota last week, also winning only once, over the Baltimore Orioles, which isn't as impressive as it would have been 3 weeks ago. Losing 1-0 to the worst team in the Major Leagues who were starting their worst pitcher is a sure sign that you are one of the worst teams around.

Rounding out the losers this week are the Texas Rangers, a team that was #1 just 3 weeks ago. While they haven't fallen nearly as far as the other losers (they're still a top 10 team), they've lost consecutive series to Toronto and Oakland, both of which are fairly average teams. They need to win the next two in Seattle to avoid losing their third series in a row.

May Flowers

The Houston Astros are still not a very good team, but they have won three straight games, including two blowouts to start the month of May, and they no longer have the worst record in the National League (that would be San Diego). We'll see if they can make it four in a row this afternoon against the Reds (I'm betting they can).

Philadelphia's only loss of the week came in 14 innings against the New York Mets in the game during which they announced the death of Osama Bin Laden. If the team from the city which houses the Liberty Bell had to lose to a team from any other city on that historic night, at least it was a team from the city that was attacked on that dreadful day 10 years ago.

San Diego may have the worst record in the National League today, but that doesn't mean they're not playing well. They've won three of their last 4, despite being underdogs in all of them, and they have a series coming up with Arizona this week. They may not be in last for long.

NBA Player of the Day

LeBron James - MIA - 35 pts, 7 reb, 2 ast, 14-25 FG, 2-4 3P, 5-8 FT

The Miami Heat have two stars that can take over a game, which has come in very handy during the playoffs. Either James or Wade has been named Player of the Day nearly every time the Heat have played lately, and although their combined success may hurt them in the quest for individual awards, it may end up helping them earn the ultimate team award, an NBA title.

Predictions - 4 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Hawks at Bulls - Bulls by 10

Mavericks at Lakers - Lakers by 4

MLB

Astros at Reds - Astros by 0.7

Twins at White Sox - White Sox by 1.1

Cubs at Dodgers - Cubs by 1.3

Brewers at Braves - Braves by 1.7

Pirates at Padres - Pirates by 1.1

Blue Jays at Rays - Jays by 1.9

Yankees at Tigers - Yankees by 1.0

Nationals at Phillies - Phillies by 2.7

Angels at Red Sox - Red Sox by 0.8

Giants at Mets - Mets by 0.9

Brewers at Braves - Braves by 1.0

Orioles at Royals - Orioles by 1.1

Marlins at Cardinals - Marlins by 0.3

Rockies at Diamondbacks - D-Backs by 1.0

Indians at Athletics - Indians by 1.9

Rangers at Mariners - Mariners by 0.4

Prediction Results - 3 May

NBA Playoffs: 2-0 (1.000) 36-14 overall (.720)

MLB: 7-7 (.500) 156-144 overall (.520)

Upsets: 3-1 (.750) 226-154 overall (.595)

Predictions - 3 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Celtics at Heat - Heat by 6

Grizzlies at Thunder - Thunder by 3

MLB

Blue Jays at Rays - Jays by 0.1

Yankees at Tigers - Yankees by 3.8

Nationals at Phillies - Phillies by 0.6

Brewers at Braves - Braves by 1.5

Astros at Reds - Reds by 2.3

Giants at Mets - Giants by 0.5

Angels at Red Sox - Sox by 0.2

Twins at White Sox - Sox by 1.0

Orioles at Royals - Royals by 1.5

Marlins at Cardinals - Cards by 2.5

Rockies at Diamondbacks - Rockies by 2.4

Indians at Athletics - Indians by 1.6

Pirates at Padres - Pirates by 3.0

Rangers at Mariners - Mariners by 0.6

Cubs at Dodgers - Dodgers by 3.0

NBA Player of the Day

Joe Johnson - ATL - 34 pts, 4 reb, 3 ast, 3 stl, 12-18 FG, 5-5 3P, 5-5 FT

We have another repeat winner, after Johnson won this award for his performance in the final game of the series against Orlando, but this time, Johnson won based on his shooting and scoring, while last time his rebounding played a large part in his victory. Johnson was perfect from behind the 3-point line last night, hitting big 3-pointers every time Chicago tried to make the game close, and he was also perfect from the free throw line. He was the best player in a game that involved the likely MVP, which is really saying something.

Prediction Results - 2 May

NBA Playoffs: 0-2 (.000) 34-14 overall (.708)

MLB: 6-3 (.667) 149-137 overall (.521)

Upsets: 1-1 (.500) 223-153 overall (.593)

Paul Pierce's ejection

There has been some controversy over the ending of last night's Heat-Celtics game, which had a major turning point with about 7 minutes left when Paul Pierce was ejected after receiving his second technical foul. During the game, the play-by-play announcers were very critical of referee Ed Malloy's decision to toss Pierce, saying that the second technical was unwarranted. After the game, coach Doc Rivers and several Celtics voiced a similar opinion, with Rivers going as far as to say that the Heat players involved should have been given flagrant fouls.

The first incident happened with 7:59 left in the game. Paul Pierce had the ball and pump-faked James Jones to get him off his feet in order to draw a foul, which is exactly what happened. When Jones was coming down and Pierce was going up for his shot, Jones ensured that Pierce wouldn't score by grabbing his arms, nearly hugging him. Coach Rivers claimed that this was a "clear flagrant" and that he "went right for the head and grabbed." If you watch the replay, which has been shown over and over on SportsCenter, it is clear that Jones didn't make contact with Pierce's head, and it also appears that he didn't even try to. He went right for the arms to prevent a shot, just as he stated afterward. Pierce didn't like the contact from Jones, which is quite ironic, considering that his intent with the pump fake was to draw contact, so he got right in Jones' face and nearly started a fight, which was quickly broken up by referees, who hit both players with technical fouls. After watching this play multiple times, it's obvious the officials made the correct call.

The next incident occurred less than a minute later, when Pierce was setting a screen to help Ray Allen get open behind the 3-point line. Dwyane Wade, who was guarding Allen at the time, plowed into Pierce and was called for a personal foul. Once again, Pierce didn't like the contact and attempted to get in Wade's face, but was separated from the situation quickly. Once again, Coach Rivers though a flagrant should have been issued. If Wade had intentionally hit Pierce in the head or the groin, I could see a flagrant foul being called on the play, but there was no such attempt, just a hit that was called a foul as it should have. While the second incident wasn't as close to becoming a fight as the first, the technical fouls assessed to both players in this case were definitely warranted. The previous incident had happened less than one minute earlier, and the referees needed to keep the game under control, and allowing these types of situations to keep happening by not doling out punishment would have led to more problems.

In both cases, Paul Pierce was in a situation where he was trying to draw contact and a foul, and in both cases the call went against the opposing player. It's obvious that Pierce let his temper get out of control last night, and an ejection was the only way to take care of it. If he didn't want the opposing players to make contact with him, he should have made different plays in both instances. As it stands, Pierce's temper cost him 7 minutes and may have cost his team the game.

NBA Player of the Day

Zach Randolph - MEM - 34 pts, 10 reb, 2 ast, 3 stl, 12-22 FG, 1-1 3P, 9-9 FT

After Randolph's great game to close out the series against San Antonio, he came back two night later with an even better game to upset Oklahoma City in game 1. He scored 3 more points, had one fewer rebound, did not miss a free throw, and shot the exact same percentage as in the previous game. We may be looking at the first 8-seed ever to play in the Western Conference Finals.

Predictions - 2 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Hawks at Bulls - Bulls by 11

Mavericks at Lakers - Lakers by 4

MLB

Rangers at Athletics - Rangers by 3.2

Yankees at Tigers - Yankees by 4.0

Giants at Nationals - Nats by 0.5

Brewers at Braves - Braves by 1.1

Astros at Reds - Reds by 2.3

Angels at Red Sox - Angels by 2.9

Orioles at White Sox - Sox by 0.0

Marlins at Cardinals - Cards by 1.1

Pirates at Padres - Pirates by 0.0

Cubs at Dodgers - Dodgers by 2.1

Prediction Results - 1 May

NBA Playoffs: 1-1 (.500) 34-12 overall (.739)

MLB: 8-7 (.533) 143-134 overall (.516)

Upsets: 4-2 (.667) 222-152 overall (.594)

Predictions - 1 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Grizzlies at Thunder - Thunder by 4

Celtics at Heat - Heat by 5

MLB

Tigers at Indians - Indians by 5.6

Blue Jays at Yankees - Jays by 1.0

Cardinals at Braves - Cards by 1.3

Giants at Nationals - Giants by 1.9

Mariners at Red Sox - Sox by 0.3

Angels at Rays - Angels by 1.6

Brewers at Astros - Brewers by 0.6

Orioles at White Sox - Orioles by 0.4

Twins at Royals - Royals by 2.3

Pirates at Rockies - Pirates by 1.0

Rangers at Athletics - Rangers by 2.6

Cubs at Diamondbacks - D-Backs by 1.1

Marlins at Reds - Reds by 0.9

Padres at Dodgers - Dodgers by 0.3

Mets at Phillies - Mets by 0.7

Prediction Results - 30 Apr

MLB: 5-10 (.333) 135-127 overall (.515)

Upsets: 1-5 (.167) 218-150 overall (.592)