Thursday, April 7, 2011

Predictions - 7 Apr

Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Celtics at Bulls - Bulls by 4
Trail Blazers at Jazz - Blazers by 1

NBA Player of the Day

Blake Griffin - LAC - 35 pts, 11 reb, 6 ast, 15-20 FG, 5-8 FT
Another great game from Griffin wasn't quite enough as the Clippers were unable to upset the Thunder in Griffin's hometown last night. Griffin was fouled on a dunk attempt in the final minute that would have tied the game, but he missed one of the free throws and Oklahoma City was able to hit their late foul shots.

Prediction Results - 6 Apr

NBA: 7-5 (.583) 696-295 overall (.702)

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Predictions - 6 Apr

Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Wizards at Pacers - Pacers by 9
Knicks at 76ers - 76ers by 4
Cavaliers at Raptors - Raptors by 6
Magic at Bobcats - Magic by 6
Nets at Pistons - Pistons by 5
Suns at Timberwolves - Suns by 3
Rockets at Hornets - Hornets by 3
Bucks at Heat - Heat by 11
Clippers at Thunder - Thunder by 9
Nuggets at Mavericks - Mavericks by 2
Kings at Spurs - Spurs by 13
Lakers at Warriors - Lakers by 5

NBA Player of the Day

David Lee - GSW - 29 pts, 20 reb, 2 ast, 2 stl, 13-17 FG, 3-3 FT
Lee did everything he could, including grabbing a season-high 20 rebounds, to prevent the Trail Blazers from clinching a playoff berth last night, but even after his efforts stopped Portland from winning the game, a loss by the Rockets at the same time put Portland in the playoffs again this year.

Prediction Results - 5 Apr

NBA: 6-7 (.462) 689-290 overall (.704)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 170-116 overall (.594)

Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Predictions - 5 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.
Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Spurs at Hawks - Spurs by 3
Bobcats at Cavaliers - Bobcats by 3
Timberwolves at Nets - Nets by 2
Bucks at Magic - Magic by 9
Pistons at Wizards - Pistons by 1
76ers at Celtics - Celtics by 7
Raptors at Knicks - Knicks by 9
Suns at Bulls - Bulls by 10
Clippers at Grizzlies - Grizzlies by 8
Kings at Rockets - Rockets by 10
Thunder at Nuggets - Nuggets by 4
Warriors at Trail Blazers - Blazers by 8
Jazz at Lakers - Lakers by 11

Prediction Results - 4 Apr

NCAA Tournament: 1-0 (1.000) 44-23 overall (.657)

Monday, April 4, 2011

NBA Rankings and Playoff Odds - 4 Apr

We are now in the home stretch of the NBA season. 12 teams have clinched playoff berths already, and there are 7 teams still in contention for the final 4 spots. With my usual overall rankings today, I'm also adding in the projected order of finish below, along with odds of each team making and winning the Finals. The rankings have team name followed by weekly record, overall record, rating, and previous ranking.

1. Miami (3-1) (54-23) -7.07 (2)
2. LA Lakers (2-1) (55-21) -6.86 (3)
3. Chicago (3-1) (56-20) -6.73 (1)
4. San Antonio (1-3) (58-19) -6.30 (4)
5. Boston (2-2) (53-23) -5.56 (5)
6. Denver (3-0) (47-29) -5.30 (7)
7. Orlando (1-3) (48-29) -5.04 (6)
8. Dallas (1-3) (53-24) -4.19 (8)
9. Oklahoma City (2-2) (50-26) -3.75 (9)
10. Memphis (3-0) (44-33) -3.21 (10)
11. Houston (3-1) (41-36) -2.76 (11)
12. Portland (3-1) (45-32) -2.62 (13)
13. New Orleans (2-1) (44-33) -2.40 (12)
14. Philadelphia (3-1) (40-37) -1.88 (14)
15. New York (3-0) (38-38) -0.59 (16)
16. Atlanta (2-1) (44-33) -0.23 (17)
17. Phoenix (1-3) (37-39) -0.04 (15)
18. Milwaukee (2-2) (31-45) 0.78 (18)
19. Indiana (3-1) (35-43) 1.23 (20)
20. Utah (0-3) (36-41) 1.51 (19)
21. Golden State (1-2) (33-44) 2.06 (21)
22. LA Clippers (1-2) (30-47) 2.24 (22)
23. Detroit (0-3) (26-50) 3.59 (24)
24. Charlotte (2-2) (32-44) 3.71 (23)
25. Sacramento (2-2) (22-54) 4.34 (25)
26. Minnesota (0-3) (17-60) 5.27 (26)
27. Toronto (1-2) (21-55) 5.62 (28)
28. New Jersey (0-4) (23-53) 5.65 (27)
29. Washington (3-1) (20-56) 7.09 (29)
30. Cleveland (1-3) (15-61) 9.14 (30)

April Flowers

The Philadelphia 76ers started off the week very well, beating the Bulls in Chicago by 12 points before beating the Rockets by 11 two nights later. Both teams had a lot to play for, but the 76ers showed that they deserve the playoff berth they clinched this week by beating both.

Not only did the Washington Wizards avoid tying the all-time record for least road wins in a season when they beat Utah on Monday, but they distanced themselves from it by winning their third road game of the season yesterday in Charlotte.

Portland faced 3 Western Conference playoff teams this week, which makes their 3-1 record this week even more impressive. They beat San Antonio on the road and Dallas and Oklahoma City at home, with a loss to New Orleans as the only blemish on a very strong week.

It may be strange to say that a team that won only once this week is hot, but that's exactly what happens when that team is the Cleveland Cavaliers, and that victory is over the Miami Heat. They lost all three of their road games this week, but beating the Heat and local villain LeBron James probably meant more to them anyway.

Memphis did exactly what they had to this week, winning all three of their games by double digits to solidify their hold on one of the final playoff spots in the West. Especially important was their win over New Orleans, the team they are currently tied with for the 7th seed. If they beat them again this week they earn the tiebreak over them.

April Fools

After losing a tough game to the Lakers in the middle of the week, the Dallas Mavericks seemed to resign themselves to the fact that they will be the third seed in the West, and that they had nothing left to play for in the regular season, which showed quite clearly in losses at Golden State and Portland later in the week.

No one expected the Charlotte Bobcats to win in Orlando this week, but when you're sitting outside the playoff race but still alive, you need to be able to beat the Washington Wizards, a team that had only won twice on the road all season, when they visit your home court late in the season.

So much for the good signs that New Jersey showed after the Deron Williams trade. The Nets have now lost 10 of their last 11 games, and the lone victory was an overtime victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers, not exactly the quality win that would make this cold streak look a little nicer.

Orlando just could not win a road game this week, losing close ones to New York, Atlanta, and Toronto, all teams that are far inferior to the Magic, a team that claims to have championship ambitions. If they keep playing like this, they'll be waiting for next year again.

Last week the Chicago Bulls were one of the hottest teams in the league. This week, even though they lost only once, that loss came to the only playoff-caliber team they faced, the Philadelphia 76ers. Their 3 victories were all unimpressive wins over even less impressive teams that gave up on the playoffs months ago.

Seeding Projections

Here are my projected final standings for each conference, with projected record in parentheses. Only teams still mathematically alive are included.

East

1. Chicago (60-22)
2. Miami (58-24)
3. Boston (57-25)
4. Orlando (51-31)
5. Atlanta (46-36)
6. Philadelphia (43-39)
7. New York (41-41)
8. Indiana (37-45)

9. Milwaukee (34-48)
10. Charlotte (34-48)

West

1. San Antonio (61-21)
2. LA Lakers (59-23)
3. Dallas (56-26)
4. Oklahoma City (53-29)
5. Denver (51-31)
6. Portland (48-34)
7. Memphis (47-35)
8. New Orleans (47-35)

9. Houston (44-38)

Playoff Odds

First Round

Odds of each projected top-4 seed winning their first round series.

1. Chicago - 78.4
2. Miami - 73.3
3. Orlando - 67.7
4. San Antonio - 64.6
5. Boston - 63.9
6. LA Lakers - 63.8
7. Dallas - 56.7
8. Oklahoma City - 46.1

As you can see, the top 4 seeds in the East all look pretty strong as far as advancing through the first round is involved. Oklahoma City is the top seed I feel is most likely to lose in the first round, but I would guess that there will be as many as three top seeds falling in the first round.

Finals

These are the odds of each team winning their conference and advancing to the Finals.

1. Chicago - 27.6
2. Miami - 25.7
3. LA Lakers - 22.8
4. San Antonio - 20.8
5. Boston - 16.7
6. Orlando - 16.2
7. Denver - 14.1
8. Dallas - 12.2
9. Oklahoma City - 9.7
10. Memphis - 7.5
11. Portland - 7.1
12. New Orleans - 5.9
13. Philadelphia - 5.2
14. Atlanta - 3.4
15. New York - 3.3
16. Indiana - 1.9

Champions

These are the odds of each team winning the championship this season.

1. Chicago - 15.6
2. Miami - 14.6
3. LA Lakers - 12.6
4. San Antonio - 11.3
5. Boston - 8.7
6. Orlando - 8.0
7. Denver - 6.8
8. Dallas - 5.5
9. Oklahoma City - 4.2
10. Memphis - 3.1
11. Portland - 2.8
12. New Orleans - 2.3
13. Philadelphia - 2.0
14T. Atlanta - 1.1
14T. New York - 1.1
16. Indiana - 0.5

The top two seeds in each conference have the strongest odds of winning the championship, as would be expected. There is a 54.1% chance that one of those 4 teams will wind up holding up the trophy at the end of the season.

NBA Player of the Day

LeBron James - MIA - 31 pts, 11 reb, 7 ast, 3 stl, 13-18 FG, 5-8 FT
LeBron showed off his all-around skills once again as he led Miami to a road victory over New Jersey, a win which clinched the division title for the Heat, the first time they have accomplished that since 2007. The only thing he struggled in last night was turning the ball over, which he did 7 times out of his team's 15.

Predictions - 4 Apr

Possible upsets are underlined.

NCAA Tournament

(8) Butler vs. (3) Connecticut - UConn by 4

Prediction Results - 3 Apr

NBA: 7-4 (.636) 683-283 overall (.707)
Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 170-115 overall (.596)

Sunday, April 3, 2011

Predictions - 3 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.
Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Suns at Spurs - Spurs by 9
Nuggets at Lakers - Lakers by 5
Pistons at Celtics - Celtics by 12
Heat at Nets - Heat by 10
Cavaliers at Knicks - Knicks by 12
Jazz at Kings - Jazz by 1
Magic at Raptors - Magic by 9
Wizards at Bobcats - Bobcats by 7
Pacers at Hornets - Hornets by 6
Hawks at Rockets - Rockets by 5
Mavericks at Trail Blazers - Blazers by 1

NBA Player of the Day

Derrick Rose - CHI - 36 pts, 3 reb, 10 ast, 3 blk, 11-20 FG, 1-4 3P, 13-14 FT
Rose has been on fire lately, scoring 30 points for the third time in the past five games, and the Bulls have taken control of the Eastern Conference with another commanding victory over the Raptors. Rose is now the first Bull in 25 years to have at least six games of 30 points and 10 assists in one season, and the last person to do it is pretty easy to guess.

Prediction Results - 2 Apr

NBA: 2-3 (.400) 676-279 overall (.708)
NCAA Tournament: 1-1 (.500) 43-23 overall (.652)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 168-115 (.594)

Saturday, April 2, 2011

Predictions - 2 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Raptors at Bulls - Bulls by 16
Timberwolves at Grizzlies - Grizzlies by 11
76ers at Bucks - 76ers by 1
Mavericks at Warriors - Mavs by 4
Thunder at Clippers - Thunder by 4

NCAA Tournament

(11) VCU vs. (8) Butler - Butler by 2
(4) Kentucky vs. (3) Connecticut - Kentucky by 3

NBA Player of the Day

Andray Blatche - WAS - 36 pts, 19 reb, 4 ast, 15-32 FG, 6-9 FT
Blatche had a career night for the Wizards, setting new career highs in points, rebounds, and offensive rebounds (16), while guiding Washington to a win over Cleveland, the only team in the league with a worse overall record.

Prediction Results - 1 Apr

NBA: 10-3
Upsets: 1-0



Friday, April 1, 2011

NBA MVP Rankings - 1 Apr

After a short hiatus to focus more time on the NCAA Tournament, I've brought back my MVP rankings this week, but the faces haven't changed that much despite the time off. I'm still at odds with the majority of the world on my choice for MVP, but most seem to disagree with my choices for Most Improved and Sixth Man also. I'm just telling it like the numbers are telling me. Here are my updated rankings, with previous ranking in parentheses.

Most Valuable Player

1. LeBron James - MIA - 26.6 pts, 7.5 reb, 6.9 ast (1)
Since the last time I updated, the Heat have gone 8-2 and LeBron has averaged 28.9 points over that time. It is hard to dispute that he is the best player in the league, and his team is still in contention for the top seed in the East. The fact that he won the past 2 MVP awards is being held against him.

2. Dwyane Wade - MIA - 25.8 pts, 6.5 reb, 4.5 ast (3)
As good as LeBron's been lately, Wade has been keeping pace, averaging 27.4 points over the same 10-game span and putting Miami in position to pass the Celtics and Bulls to lock up the top seed. I believe that LeBron is a bigger part of the reason for Miami's success, but Wade is a very close second.

3. Derrick Rose - CHI - 25.0 pts, 4.2 reb, 7.9 ast (2)
The Bulls have also lost only twice in the past three weeks, and if they had won those two, I would have put Rose neck-and-neck with LeBron for the MVP lead, but what happened in their last loss was disturbing. Rose's turnover total (10) was greater than his combined assists and rebounds (9).

4. Kobe Bryant - LAL - 25.2 pts, 5.2 reb, 4.8 ast (4)
The Lakers have not lost in three weeks, and have only lost once to Miami since the All-Star break, and Kobe is the main reason why. He nearly recorded a huge triple-double against Phoenix, finishing with 42 points, 12 rebounds, and 9 assists in their closest game since Miami.

5. Pau Gasol - LAL - 19.0 pts, 10.2 reb, 3.4 ast (5)
Pau has scored at least 20 points in 6 of the last 7 games for Los Angeles, and they are undeniably the hottest team in the league today. If he keeps up this pace, who knows if the Lakers will lose again.

6. Kevin Durant - OKC - 27.8 pts, 6.8 reb, 2.8 ast (6)
Durant's scoring has dipped a little bit since last month, but his 3-point percentage is through the roof. He shot nearly 46% from long range in March, well above his season average of 36%, and that kind of marksmanship will come in handy in the playoffs.

7. Russell Westbrook - OKC - 22.0 pts, 4.6 reb, 8.3 ast (8)
Westbrook has the Thunder rolling, winning 11 of their past 12 games to take control of their division over the surging Nuggets and clinch a playoff berth again. Westbrook hit 4 3-pointers on Sunday against Portland, the first time he has made more than one in a game since mid-February.

8. Dirk Nowitzki - DAL - 23.3 pts, 7.0 reb, 2.5 ast (7)
Dirk has picked up every aspect of his game in March, even his free throw shooting, which was already great. His season average is 89%, but he hit 96% of his charity shots this month, with only 4 misses all month. If only the Mavs hadn't lost 6 games in March, they could have overtaken San Antonio for the best record in the league.

9. Dwight Howard - ORL - 23.1 pts, 14.2 reb, 2.4 blk (9)
Even though he is a little behind in both categories, it doesn't appear that Howard has given up on leading the league in rebounds or blocks this season, with averages of 16 rebounds and 3.2 blocks per game in March. He seems like a safe bet to win another Defensive Player of the Year award.

10. LaMarcus Aldridge - POR - 21.9 pts, 8.6 reb, 2.1 ast (10)
Aldridge hasn't been able to keep up the pace that he set around the All-Star break, when he was making headlines almost daily for his exploits on the court around the time of his All-Star snub, but he has Portland in a pretty good position entering the final weeks of the season, and has still managed to remain healthy in the Bermuda Triangle of knee injuries.

Rookie of the Year

1. Blake Griffin - LAC - 22.4 pts, 12.1 reb, 3.7 ast (1)
Griffin has never been anywhere but #1 in these rankings all year, and even though he is coasting into the finish line somewhat, there is absolutely no doubt that he is the league's best rookie, and if the voting isn't unanimous it will be an outrage.

2. John Wall - WAS - 16.0 pts, 4.5 reb, 8.6 ast (2)
The rookie wall sure didn't affect Wall, who continued to improve each month of his rookie season. His only bad performance was when he scored only 2 points against Miami on Wednesday, and that's easily explained away by his early ejection for throwing a punch at Zydrunas Ilgauskas.

3. DeMarcus Cousins - SAC - 14.1 pts, 8.6 reb, 2.4 ast (3)
Just imagine where the Kentucky Wildcats would be this year if Wall and Cousins had stayed in school. Oh, yeah, they're in the Final Four without their freshman stars from last year.

4. Landry Fields - NYK - 9.9 pts, 6.5 reb, 1.9 ast (4)
Fields is just another in a long list of Knicks players whose production took a dive after Carmelo Anthony was acquired last month. His performance after being a second-round draft pick is still very impressive.

5. Greg Monroe - DET - 9.0 pts, 7.3 reb, 1.2 ast (5)
Monroe has been the most improved rookie this season, turning into a very solid player for the Pistons once he started getting playing time in January. He is setting himself up nicely to become a future star.

Sixth Man of the Year

1. Lamar Odom - LAL - 14.4 pts, 8.8 reb, 3.0 ast (1)
Some people may not vote for him because he started so many games this year, but he is eligible according to the rules, and he has been a force off the bench for the Lakers all season long, especially against Phoenix last week, when he scored 29 points and grabbed 16 rebounds in the victory.

2. Jason Terry - DAL - 16.1 pts, 1.9 reb, 4.2 ast (2)
The JET's production tailed off a little this week, when he scored a total of 11 points in two games in Los Angeles. If the award required that you start less than one-third of your team's games, he would run away with this award.

3. Shawn Marion - DAL - 12.0 pts, 6.8 reb, 1.3 ast (5)
After a disappointing start to the season, Marion has come roaring back lately, scoring over 20 points twice this month and grabbing more than 10 rebounds four times, all while playing fewer minutes than what he's used to.

4. Thaddeus Young - PHI - 12.5 pts, 5.4 reb, 1.1 ast (4)
Up until this week, Young had been having a down month, but consecutive games of 21 and 22 points showed that he is back at full strength and ready to help his team in the playoffs.

5. J.R. Smith - DEN - 12.2 pts, 4.1 reb, 2.2 ast (NR)
Smith has benefited greatly from Carmelo's departure, shooting nearly 47% from 3-point range during the month of March, which included his 9 for 16 performance against Detroit on the 12th, a game that he finished with 31 points, his new season high.

Most Improved Player

1. Dorell Wright - GSW - +9.4 pts, +2.0 reb, +1.7 ast (1)
Golden State had to play 18 games in March, but it didn't slow down Wright, who scored right at his season average for the month, and posted two games of more than 30 points for the Warriors, who weren't mathematically eliminated from playoff contention until a few days ago, a huge improvement over last year.

2. D.J. Augustin - CHA - +7.9 pts, +1.6 reb, +3.5 ast (3)
Augustin is slowly working his way back to January form, when he took over the reins when Paul Silas took over as coach and put the Bobcats in the playoff hunt. After a subpar February, Augustin has Charlotte right in the middle of the race for the final playoff spot with only two weeks left in the regular season.

3. Kevin Love - MIN - +6.3 pts, +4.3 reb, +0.2 ast (2)
After going for more than 3 months without missing a double-double, and setting a new record along the way, Love has had 3 games this month where he failed to record one, but the last two can be blamed on an injury that kept him out for four games.

4. Nick Young - WAS - +8.8 pts, +1.3 reb, +0.6 ast (4)
Nearly all of Young's averages are double what he recorded last season, despite the fact that his minutes have only increased by 65% this year. He has taken his talents to a whole new level this year, and the Wizards have a good young core to build around.

5. Jrue Holiday - PHI - +5.9 pts, +1.4 reb, +2.5 ast (5)
Holiday is finishing his sophomore season in strong fashion, scoring at least 24 points twice this week and reaching double-digit assists twice in the past 12 days. He'll be an important piece for the 76ers in the playoffs.

NBA Player of the Day

Rajon Rondo - BOS - 22 pts, 5 reb, 14 ast, 11-20 FG
Rondo finally had a good shooting game, and it couldn't have come at a better time for Boston, who was able to upset the league-leading San Antonio Spurs on the road last night thanks to the efforts of their point guard. If he can shoot like this in the playoffs, the Celtics will be very tough to beat.

Predictions - 1 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.
Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Bucks at Pacers - Pacers by 3
Bobcats at Magic - Magic by 12
Nets at 76ers - 76ers by 10
Cavaliers at Wizards - Wizards by 4
Bulls at Pistons - Bulls by 8
Celtics at Hawks - Celtics by 3
Grizzlies at Hornets - Hornets by 2
Heat at Timberwolves - Heat by 9
Spurs at Rockets - Spurs by 1
Thunder at Trail Blazers - Blazers by 1
Nuggets at Kings - Nuggets by 7
Clippers at Suns - Suns by 5
Lakers at Jazz - Lakers by 6

Prediction Results - 31 Mar

NBA: 1-1 (.500) 664-273 overall (.709)