First of all, the Golden State Warriors are only the second team to reach the NBA Finals for 5 straight seasons, joining the Boston Celtics, who reached 10 straight from 1957-1966. The Toronto Raptors, meanwhile, are playing in their first ever championship series, meaning Game 1 will be the first Finals game ever played outside the United States.
This series also boasts 4 of the past 5 Finals MVP's, with 2014 MVP Kawhi Leonard now in Toronto, 2015 MVP Andre Iguodala playing an important supporting role for the Warriors, two-time defending MVP Kevin Durant questionable to play for the Warriors after injuring his leg a couple weeks ago. Though Durant may be the best player on either team, his absence doesn't kill the Warriors' chances. In fact, the Warriors are 33-4 when Curry plays but Durant does not over the past 3 seasons, meaning that Curry is stepping in to fill that void when he is needed.
This series also boasts 3 of the past 4 Defensive Players of the Year, with 2017 winner Draymond Green and Kawhi Leonard, who won the award during the two previous seasons, facing off this year. Both are versatile defenders who are usually assigned to the opponent's best player, but the Warriors also have Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala available to defend Leonard, while Golden State's best player is Curry right now, and his speed may be tough for Leonard to cover.
I've broken down the odds of any possible pattern of wins happening in this series, and am breaking it down by winner and length of series:
Raptors in 4 - 3.5%
Raptors in 5 - 9.9%
Raptors in 6 - 10.1%
Raptors in 7 - 15.9%
Raptors total - 39.4%
Warriors in 4 - 9.4%
Warriors in 5 - 14.8%
Warriors in 6 - 21.8%
Warriors in 7 - 14.5%
Warriors total - 60.6%
The first two games in Toronto will be super important. Toronto's best chance comes in a long series, which means they need to win their home games to keep the series going. The Warriors' best odds come in a medium length series, so they will need to steal home court from Toronto, which will be easier to do in the first two games, because a 2-0 road hole is difficult to overcome, though the Raptors proved it was possible just a couple days ago.
Taking everything into account, my prediction for this year's champion is:
