NCAA Tournament Odds 2015

The greatest tournament in sports is back this week, and there is a lot of intrigue surrounding undefeated Kentucky and their odds of being the first team to win a championship without a loss in nearly 40 years. I have analyzed each team's odds of facing and beating any other opponent, which gives me each team's odds of making it through each round. Take a look through my hints on upsets, Cinderellas, and Final Four teams to help you build a winning bracket.

Best Teams Left Out

Teams are listed by final ranking using my formula.

28. Minnesota
34. Illinois
36. Florida
38. Miami (FL)
43. Vanderbilt
44. Stanford

Syracuse could have also been on this list (ranked # 46), but they are not eligible for the postseason due to NCAA infractions. There were also 6 teams on last year's list, but this year all are from power conferences, and many were left out due to losing conference records, despite strong overall showings.

Least Deserving At-Large Teams

Seed is in parentheses.

50. Cincinnati (8)
51. San Diego State (8)
52. UCLA (11)
55. Boise State (11)
56. St. John's (9)
58. Oregon (8)

The committee did a pretty good job of picking teams this year, with all 6 of these teams coming from the First Four and Next Four Out on my list. Of last year's 6 on this list, 4 lost in the first round, and another in the second round, with only Dayton making a serious run, clear to the Elite Eight.

Most Underseeded Teams

These are the teams that are seeded lower than their record or talent says they should be seeded, and makes them good teams to look at to pull off potential upsets.

1. Ohio State (10)
2. Texas (11)
3. BYU (11)
4. Michigan State (7)
5. Georgia State (14)
6. Stephen F Austin (12)
7. Davidson (10)
8. Wichita State (7)
9. Utah (5)
10. North Carolina (4)

Of the ten teams on last year's list, there were a total of 8 upsets recorded, with Kentucky doing most of the damage. Don't be surprised to see these teams go farther than expected, which for 6 of them would be winning just one game.

Most Overseeded Teams

These are teams that you should pick with caution, because there is a good likelihood of an early exit.

1. SMU (6)
2. Oregon (8)
3. Maryland (4)
4. Cincinnati (8)
5. San Diego State (8)
6. St. John's (9)
7. Wyoming (12)
8. Kansas (2)
9. Baylor (3)
10. Georgetown (4)

Of the 10 teams on last year's list, 6 were upset, including #1 seed Wichita State in the second round, and 7 were upset if you count Wisconsin losing to a higher seed in the Final Four (which I don't). Most of the upsets will occur in the first two rounds. Some matchups between over- and under-seeded teams we could see this week include Stephen F Austin vs. Georgetown, Baylor vs. BYU, and Kansas vs. Wichita State.

Number of First Round Upsets

8.6

Last year I predicted 9.6, and there were only 8, which was right on the lower end of my range. This year look for anywhere from 7 to 10 in the first round.

Most Likely First Round Upsets

(10) Ohio State over (7) VCU - 68.4%
(9) Oklahoma State over (8) Oregon - 56.5%
(9) Purdue over (8) Cincinnati - 55.8%
(9) St. John's over (8) San Diego State - 49.0%
(11) UCLA over (6) SMU - 47.8%
(11) Texas over (6) Butler - 47.6%
(11) BYU/Ole Miss over (6) Xavier - 45.2%
(10) Davidson over (7) Iowa - 45.2%
(9) LSU over (8) NC State - 43.8%
(11) Boise State/Dayton over (6) - 42.1%

5 of the 8 upsets that happened last season were on my list, including 12 seeds North Dakota State, North Carolina State, and Harvard. Look at this list first when looking for upsets to include in your bracket.

Most Likely #15 or #16 to Pull an Upset

(15) New Mexico State over (2) Kansas - 16.5%

The Aggies are the only bottom seed with any chance of winning a game, since they should have been a #14, and Kansas should have been a #4. Don't count on seeing a huge upset, but pick New Mexico State if you're feeling adventurous.

Most Likely Cinderellas

These are the teams most likely to pull off 2 upsets to make the Sweet 16.

(10) Ohio State - 26.9%
(11) Texas - 22.0%
(11) BYU/Ole Miss - 20.2%
(12) Buffalo - 17.6%
(11) UCLA - 16.4%
(10) Indiana - 15.4%
(11) Boise State/Dayton - 14.0%
(10) Davidson - 12.7%
(13) Valparaiso - 11.5%
(14) Georgia State - 11.4%
(12) Stephen F Austin - 10.1%

Last year there were 3 Cinderella teams, of which 2 were on my list, with Dayton surprising me.

Double-Digit Seeds in the Sweet 16

2.2

Last year I predicted 2.7, so the actual result of 3 was right on, so look for 2 or 3 in this year's bracket.

#1 Seeds in the Final Four

1.7

Last season I picked 0.9, and only Florida made it, so I was correct again. This season there is a very good chance at seeing two, but I wouldn't pick 0 or 4.

Odds of #1 Seed Winning the Tournament

59.5%

That is the highest number I have ever seen on this line, so picking one of the top seeds will probably pay off this year. Last year I gave it 26.3%, so when UConn won it, that prediction proved true.

Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams

(1) Kentucky - 90.4%
(1) Duke - 85.7%
(1) Wisconsin - 85.2%
(1) Villanova - 79.7%
(2) Gonzaga - 69.3%
(2) Virginia - 67.5%
(2) Arizona - 66.3%
(4) North Carolina - 64.9%
(3) Iowa State - 62.7%
(3) Oklahoma - 59.1%
(4) Louisville - 55.6%
(5) Utah - 54.0%
(3) Notre Dame - 49.5%
(2) Kansas - 49.5%
(3) Baylor - 41.4%
(5) West Virginia - 38.3%
(5) Northern Iowa - 33.9%
(4) Georgetown - 33.5%
(4) Maryland - 32.6%
(7) Wichita State - 31.1%

10 of the top 15 teams on my list last year made the Sweet 16, so be careful when picking any of these teams to lose too early.

Most Likely Final Four Teams

(1) Kentucky - 62.4%
(1) Duke - 38.2%
(1) Wisconsin - 36.9%
(1) Villanova - 34.5%
(2) Virginia - 27.2%
(2) Arizona - 27.1%
(2) Gonzaga - 23.0%
(4) North Carolina - 15.0%
(5) Utah - 14.2%
(3) Oklahoma - 12.2%
(3) Iowa State - 11.5%
(4) Louisville - 10.3%

You'll notice that only one #1 or #2 seed is missing from this list, with Kansas not looking good to make the Final Four. Last year two of the Final Four were on my list, with UConn and Kentucky as surprise entries.

Most Likely Champions

(1) Kentucky - 27.0%
(1) Wisconsin - 11.9%
(1) Duke - 11.5%
(1) Villanova - 9.1%
(2) Arizona - 7.9%
(2) Virginia - 6.9%
(2) Gonzaga - 5.1%
(4) North Carolina - 3.2%
(5) Utah - 3.0%

UConn wasn't even on my radar last year, so anything could happen, but the two previous years the champion was in the top 2 on my list.

Overall Bracket

Upset picks are in italics.

First Round

(1) Kentucky
(8) Cincinnati
(5) West Virginia
(4) Maryland
(11) Texas
(3) Notre Dame
(7) Wichita State
(2) Kansas

(1) Wisconsin
(8) Oregon
(5) Arkansas
(4) North Carolina
(11) BYU/Ole Miss
(3) Baylor
(10) Ohio State
(2) Arizona

(1) Villanova
(9) LSU
(5) Northern Iowa
(4) Louisville
(11) Boise State/Dayton
(3) Oklahoma
(7) Michigan State
(2) Virginia

(1) Duke
(9) St. John's
(5) Utah
(4) Georgetown
(11) UCLA
(3) Iowa State
(10) Davidson
(2) Gonzaga

Sweet 16

(1) Kentucky
(4) Maryland
(11) Texas
(7) Wichita State

(1) Wisconsin
(4) North Carolina
(11) BYU/Ole Miss
(2) Arizona

(1) Villanova
(4) Louisville
(3) Oklahoma
(2) Virginia

(1) Duke
(5) Utah
(3) Iowa State
(2) Gonzaga

Elite Eight

(1) Kentucky
(11) Texas

(1) Wisconsin
(2) Arizona

(1) Villanova
(2) Virginia

(5) Utah
(3) Iowa State

Final Four

(1) Kentucky
(2) Arizona
(2) Virginia
(3) Iowa State

Championship

(1) Kentucky
(2) Virginia

Champions

(1) Kentucky

This is just an example that could serve to help you fill out a bracket, but you should use the information above and your own gut feelings and fill out one of your own. Have fun!