NBA Playoff Odds - 30 Apr

The first round has come to an end, and the second round starts tomorrow, so today is the perfect time to update the odds of each team advancing in the playoffs. Three teams that I originally predicted to be here at this point have gone home, but Oklahoma City and Memphis were my #1 and #3 underdogs, so neither was a huge surprise. Atlanta, however, blew me out of the water by manhandling the Magic, but I don't expect that to continue against Chicago. Here are the updated odds, with change from Monday in parentheses.

Odds of Making Conference Finals

1. Chicago - 96.1% (+11.3)

2. Miami - 71.7% (-1.0)

3. Oklahoma City - 62.4% (+9.1)

4. LA Lakers - 60.6% (+10.0)

5. Dallas - 39.4% (+6.6)

6. Memphis - 37.6% (+19.0)

7. Boston - 28.3% (+1.2)

8. Atlanta - 3.9% (N/A)

Memphis made a strong move up this week because they made it out of the first round, which was only a 56% chance a week ago, so the odds of San Antonio making the Conference Finals were absorbed into the other Western Conference contenders, all of which strengthened their chances with the Spurs' defeat. Chicago faces the weakest team possible for the second straight round, and if that trend continues they will face Boston and Memphis in the remaining rounds.

Odds of making the NBA Finals

1. Chicago - 53.1% (+9.2)

2. LA Lakers - 40.3% (+10.7)

3. Miami - 37.2% (-5.0)

4. Oklahoma City - 24.8% (-1.5)

5. Dallas - 23.3% (+6.2)

6. Memphis - 11.6% (+5.1)

7. Boston - 9.4% (-0.8)

8. Atlanta - 0.2% (N/A)

Chicago's odds are so high because they most likely will be in the Conference Finals without a fight, while Miami has to go through a very tough Boston team that has been to two Finals in three years. The Lakers are becoming a stronger favorite in the West, thanks to the Spurs losing and giving LA home court for the next two rounds.

Odds of Winning the Championship

1. Chicago - 34.0% (+5.9)

2. Miami - 24.9% (-4.6)

3. LA Lakers - 17.5% (+5.3)

4. Dallas - 8.4% (+2.4)

5. Oklahoma City - 8.2% (-1.2)

6. Boston - 4.2% (-0.5)

7. Memphis - 2.9% (N/A)

8. Atlanta - 0.0% (N/A)

The odds are over 75% that Chicago, Miami, or the Lakers will win the championship, which should not surprise many people. Dallas and Oklahoma City could have a chance, while Boston and Memphis are pretty unlikely. Atlanta will not win the championship, barring injuries to LeBron, Kobe, Rose, Dirk, Durant, Rondo, and Z-Bo.

NBA Player of the Day

Zach Randolph - MEM - 31 pts, 11 reb, 2 ast, 12-22 FG, 7-8 FT

Randolph took over the 4th quarter for Memphis last night, scoring 17 points in the final period, including the clinching free throws in the closing seconds. It was the first ever series win for the Grizzlies, and only the 4th time in history that an 8th seed upset the top seed in the conference.

Predictions - 30 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

MLB

Angels at Rays - Rays by 0.3

Cardinals at Braves - Braves by 0.1

Mets at Phillies - Phillies by 1.2

Blue Jays at Yankees - Jays by 1.3

Rangers at Athletics - A's by 1.0

Giants at Nationals - Nats by 0.6

Tigers at Indians - Indians by 1.7

Brewers at Astros - Brewers by 2.0

Mariners at Red Sox - Sox by 1.7

Orioles at White Sox - Sox by 1.0

Twins at Royals - Royals by 0.9

Marlins at Reds - Marlins by 1.3

Cubs at Diamondbacks - D-Backs by 3.4

Pirates at Rockies - Rockies by 0.9

Padres at Dodgers - Dodgers by 0.8

Prediction Results - 29 Apr

NBA Playoffs: 1-0 (1.000) 33-11 overall (.750)

MLB: 6-9 (.400) 130-117 overall (.526)

Upsets: 2-2 (.500) 217-145 overall (.599)

NBA Playoff MVP Rankings - 29 Apr

Last week's playoff MVP leader, Dwight Howard, is no more. After tearing up the Hawks initially, he had a very disturbing week. He had two more extremely strong games, putting up 29-17 and 25-15, but Orlando lost both of those games. They did manage one win this week before being eliminated, but Howard only registered 8 points and 8 rebounds in the win. If a player is more valuable to his team while sitting on the bench, he's not really that valuable, is he? Not only did that performance drop him from the rankings altogether, it was bad enough that he didn't even win the first round honorable mention award, which I give to the best player whose team lost. I'll reveal the winner of that award later. First, let's get to this week's rankings. Last week's ranking is in parentheses.

1. Dwyane Wade - MIA - 22.2 pts, 8.4 reb, 5.2 ast, 2.0 blk, 1.4 stl (5)

There is no clear-cut MVP leader at this point of the playoffs, but Wade has to be considered a frontrunner after the series he had. In Miami's last two wins, Wade, a guard, posted point-rebound double-doubles while shooting over 90% from the free throw line. He also has the most experience of all of my current leaders, having won a Finals MVP award 5 years ago and owning the only championship ring of any of these five.

2. Kevin Durant - OKC - 32.4 pts, 5.6 reb, 3.6 ast (2)

Durant does not do much more than score, but who can deny that 41-point games to open and close the Denver series set the tone for an exciting, young Thunder team? In the clincher, he scored 16 points in the final 7 minutes and blocked a 3-point attempt in the final seconds that would have tied the game.

3. LeBron James - MIA - 24.2 pts, 10.6 reb, 6.2 ast (3)

Through the first 4 games of the playoffs, LeBron appeared to be the best player in the game. He was averaging nearly 29 points and 11 rebounds and had given the Heat a 3-1 lead in the series while Wade had struggled for a couple games, but in the deciding game Wade was the obvious star, while James managed only 16 points. He may be the King, but he's not the best closer on his own team.

4. Derrick Rose - CHI - 27.6 pts, 4.6 reb, 6.2 ast, 1.2 blk, 2.6 stl (4)

In the first two games of the playoffs, Rose showed why he is the leading candidate to win the regular season MVP award, putting up 39 points and 36 points in consecutive games, but he failed to match that in the final 3 games, scoring a total of 63 at the end of the series. His shooting percentages for the series were 37.1% from the field and 21.6% from three, both well below his regular season standards.

5. Dirk Nowitzki - DAL - 27.3 pts, 7.8 reb, 3.0 ast (NR)

Nowitzki finished with 33 points and 11 rebounds in Portland last night, winning the series for the Mavericks in a very tough arena for visitors. It was just the second time Dallas had won a playoff series since the lost to Miami in the 2006 Finals, and they won because Dirk took over the game and the series last night.

Honorable Mention

Chris Paul - NOH - 22.0 pts, 6.7 reb, 11.5 ast, 1.8 stl

Without David West, the Hornets' second-best player and leading scorer, Chris Paul took on an extra load and carried New Orleans into the playoffs and stretched their series to Los Angeles to 6 games, which is more than most expected out of them beforehand. He shot over 54% from the field and 47% from three during the series, but the Lakers finally shut down his scoring in the deciding game 6.

NBA Player of the Day

Joe Johnson - ATL - 23 pts, 10 reb, 4 ast, 10-25 FG, 1-4 3P, 2-2 FT

Johnson's stat line from last night is very similar to Dwyane Wade's from the night before, a performance which won the Heat star a Player of the Day nod from me, and Johnson's contribution was just as important. He was able to lead Atlanta to the second round of the playoffs for the third straight year, despite being a heavy underdog heading into the series.

Predictions - 29 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Spurs at Grizzlies - Grizzlies by 1

MLB

Tigers at Indians - Tigers by 1.1

Blue Jays at Yankees - Yankees by 2.6

Giants at Nationals - Nats by 0.9

Mets at Phillies - Phillies by 0.6

Mariners at Red Sox - Sox by 3.8

Angels at Rays - Rays by 1.2

Marlins at Reds - Marlins by 0.2

Cardinals at Braves - Braves by 2.4

Brewers at Astros - Brewers by 0.1

Orioles at White Sox - Orioles by 1.5

Twins at Royals - Royals by 1.8

Pirates at Rockies - Rockies by 0.3

Cubs at Diamondbacks - D-Backs by 1.1

Rangers at Athletics - Rangers by 1.2

Padres at Dodgers - Padres by 0.6

Prediction Results - 28 Apr

NBA Playoffs: 1-2 (.333) 32-11 overall (.744)

MLB: 6-5 (.545) 124-108 overall (.534)

Upsets: 2-4 (.333) 215-143 overall (.601)

Predictions - 28 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Magic at Hawks - Magic by 3

Lakers at Hornets - Lakers by 2

Mavericks at Trail Blazers - Blazers by 1

MLB

Giants at Pirates - Pirates by 1.6

Mariners at Tigers - Mariners by 0.5

Rays at Twins - Rays by 1.3

Blue Jays at Rangers - Rangers by 2.7

Mets at Nationals - Mets by 1.8

Red Sox at Orioles - Red Sox by 3.8

Royals at Indians - Royals by 1.4

White Sox at Yankees - Yankees by 4.2

Cardinals at Astros - Cards by 5.5

Rays at Twins - Twins by 1.7

Cubs at Diamondbacks - D-Backs by 0.1

NBA Player of the Day

Dwyane Wade - MIA - 26 pts, 11 reb, 7 ast, 10-25 FG, 1-5 3P, 5-6 FT

Honorable mention goes to Kevin Durant, who scored 41 points, including nearly every point down the stretch, as the Thunder eliminated Denver last night, but D-Wade had more than twice as many rebounds and assists as Durant in Miami's elimination game victory over Philadelphia. Durant is a great player, but Wade is the better all-around performer.

Prediction Results - 27 Apr

NBA Playoffs: 3-0 (1.000) 31-9 overall (.775)

MLB: 9-5 (.643) 118-103 overall (.534)

Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 213-139 overall (.605)

MLB Rankings - 27 Apr

Of the five teams that lost only once this week, not one was ranked in last week's top 12, which means that none of them have done enough to take over the top spot yet. The majority of teams played .500 ball this week, meaning that the strength of their competition did most of the work in determining which teams moved up and which moved down.

Rank. Team (Week) (Overall) Off/Def (Prev)

1. NY Yankees (3-2) (12-8) 1/1 (8)

2. Texas (3-3) (14-9) 2/3 (3)

3. Cleveland (2-3) (14-8) 4/4 (1)

4. Boston (5-1) (10-12) 3/5 (13)

5. LA Angels (3-4) (14-10) 6/2 (2)

6. Toronto (2-3) (11-12) 7/6 (24)

7. Kansas City (1-5) (12-11) 5/11 (4)

8. Saint Louis (4-3) (12-11) 8/7 (5)

9. Detroit (4-1) (12-11) 12/8 (27)

10. Atlanta (4-3) (12-13) 9/10 (11)

11. Cincinnati (3-4) (12-12) 10/13 (6)

12. Florida (6-1) (15-7) 19/9 (22)

13. Colorado (4-2) (16-7) 16/12 (17)

14. Philadelphia (5-2) (15-8) 11/17 (16)

15. Tampa Bay (3-2) (11-11) 14/18 (14)

16. Milwaukee (3-3) (12-11) 15/16 (9)

17. Oakland (2-5) (11-13) 21/14 (23)

18. Chi Sox (3-4) (10-14) 13/21 (10)

19. Baltimore (2-3) (9-12) 22/19 (15)

20. NY Mets (5-1) (10-13) 24/20 (30)

21. Washington (2-5) (10-12) 18/24 (12)

22. Minnesota (3-1) (9-12) 27/15 (29)

23. LA Dodgers (4-3) (12-13) 17/26 (28)

24. San Francisco (1-4) (11-11) 25/22 (7)

25. Arizona (3-4) (10-12) 23/25 (18)

26. Pittsburgh (2-4) (10-13) 20/28 (20)

27. Seattle (3-3) (9-15) 26/23 (19)

28. San Diego (2-6) (9-15) 30/27 (21)

29. Houston (3-3) (9-14) 28/30 (26)

30. Chi Cubs (2-5) (10-13) 29/29 (25)

On Fire

The New York Mets jumped out of last place this week by winning five straight games, the best of which was an 8-4 win over the Diamondbacks and Armando Galarraga, dealing him his first loss of the season. The Mets had played tough against good teams before that, but they had lost 12 of 14, so this week's breakthrough helped out their ranking.

Detroit started this week with a 4-game winning streak before falling to Seattle last night, but their last two wins over the White Sox were especially impressive, with a combined score of 12-0 between the two. That performance lifted the Tigers from the bottom five into the top 10 in just one week, although movement in April is always more exaggerated.

Florida had an awesome week, sweeping the Pirates and beating the Dodgers twice, while taking their weekend series over Colorado 2-1, which is no small feat considering the Rockies have the league's best record. They have played 8 straight at home, which changes this week when they travel to Cincinnati and Saint Louis, but if they can keep up their hot streak, they could challenge for the top spot next week.

Ice Cold

San Francisco needed extra innings last night to win for the first time in a week against perennial basement-dweller Pittsburgh, and didn't come closer than 3 runs in their four losses. The losses did come to very good Atlanta and Colorado teams, but you'd expect more out of last year's World Series champions.

Cleveland lost the #1 ranking this week by losing three straight games over the weekend, including two embarrassing losses to the Minnesota Twins. They came back with a victory over Kansas City last night, and they've got a very tough series coming up against Detroit this weekend.

San Diego has an excuse for their performance this week, after playing 8 games in 7 days, 3 of which went into extra innings. They also had to play the last 6 games against Philadelphia and Atlanta, two of the favorites in the NL East, and they did manage to steal one from the Braves.

Predictions - 27 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

76ers at Heat - Heat by 10

Grizzlies at Spurs - Spurs by 5

Nuggets at Thunder - Thunder by 2

MLB

Dodgers at Marlins - Dodgers by 1.4

Reds at Brewers - Brewers by 0.5

Rockies at Cubs - Rockies by 1.9

Braves at Padres - Braves by 2.6

Phillies at Diamondbacks - Phillies by 1.2

Athletics at Angels - Angels by 3.9

Red Sox at Orioles - Red Sox by 3.1

Royals at Indians - Indians by 1.9

Mariners at Tigers - Tigers by 1.7

White Sox at Yankees - Yankees by 4.0

Mets at Nationals - Mets by 0.8

Giants at Pirates - Giants by 0.0

Blue Jays at Rangers - Rangers by 2.1

Cardinals at Astros - Cards by 5.2

Rays at Twins - Rays by 0.9

NBA Player of the Day

Luol Deng - CHI - 24 pts, 6 reb, 7 ast, 3 stl, 7-14 FG, 3-5 3P, 7-8 FT

Deng may not have scored as much as Rose last night, but he did hand out more assists than his point guard and hit a couple of very important 3-pointers for the Bulls as they finally played like a #1 seed in eliminating the Indiana Pacers in game 5 of their first round series. It was by far his best game of the postseason so far, and a good sign for the advancing Bulls.

Prediction Results - 26 Apr

NBA Playoffs: 3-0 (1.000) 28-9 overall (.757)

MLB: 9-5 (.643) 109-98 overall (.527)

Upsets: 3-0 (1.000) 211-139 (.603)

Predictions - 26 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Hawks at Magic - Magic by 8

Pacers at Bulls - Bulls by 10

Hornets at Lakers - Lakers by 7

MLB

Red Sox at Orioles - Orioles by 0.2

Royals at Indians - Indians by 1.6

Mariners at Tigers - Mariners by 1.4

White Sox at Yankees - Yankees by 1.3

Mets at Nationals - Mets by 1.6

Giants at Pirates - Giants by 0.7

Dodgers at Marlins - Marlins by 0.1

Blue Jays at Rangers - Rangers by 4.1

Rockies at Cubs - Rockies by 6.5

Cardinals at Astros - Cards by 2.2

Rays at Twins - Rays by 0.8

Reds at Brewers - Reds by 2.5

Phillies at Diamondbacks - Phillies by 3.2

Athletics at Angels - Angels by 1.6

Braves at Padres - Braves by 0.6

NBA Player of the Day

Ty Lawson - DEN - 27 pts, 3 reb, 3 ast, 8-16 FG, 2-4 3P, 9-9 FT

Lawson set a new career playoff high with 27 points last night as the Denver Nuggets staved off elimination at home by beating the Thunder 104-101. Lawson hit two free throws in the final seconds that gave Denver a 5-point lead and provided the cushion they needed when Kevin Durant hit a 3-pointer just seconds later.

Prediction Results - 25 Apr

NBA Playoffs: 3-0 (1.000) 25-9 overall (.735)

MLB: 4-5 (.444) 100-93 overall (.518)

Upsets: 3-0 (1.000) 208-139 overall (.599)

NBA Playoff Odds - 25 Apr

With the first round of the playoffs drawing to a close, each team's odds of advancing in the playoffs and winning the championship has changed, some more dramatically than others. I have recalculated the odds of each team winning each possible game and matchup remaining, and the results are listed below. Percentage change from my playoff preview are in parentheses.

Odds of Winning First Round

1. Boston - 100.0% (+19.5)

2. Chicago - 99.1% (+1.6)

3. Miami - 98.9% (+7.7)

4. Oklahoma City - 93.4% (+49.0)

5. LA Lakers - 77.7% (-9.1)

6. Dallas - 67.0% (-1.7)

7. Atlanta - 65.0% (+57.4)

8. Memphis - 56.7% (+27.7)

To find the other 8 teams' odds, just subtract their opponent's odds from 100%. Boston has already completed their first round series, meaning that New York has no chance of advancing (since they've been eliminated). Oklahoma City and Memphis are the surprises of the playoffs so far, and Chicago and Dallas are the two that are just about where they were expected to be.

Odds of Advancing to the Conference Finals

1. Chicago - 84.8% (+15.1)

2. Miami - 72.7% (+2.0)

3. Oklahoma City - 53.3% (+31.7)

4. LA Lakers - 50.6% (-7.8)

5. Dallas - 32.8% (+3.3)

6. Boston - 27.1% (+2.3)

7. San Antonio - 24.1% (-14.1)

8. Memphis - 18.6% (+10.0)

9. Orlando - 11.2% (-18.5)

10. Portland - 10.8% (+1.9)

11. New Orleans - 5.8% (N/A)

Chicago's leap to the top has less to do with it's own success and more to do with Atlanta's 3-1 series lead on Orlando, which was totally unexpected. Oklahoma City has gone from possible first round upset victim to probable Conference Final participant in just over a week, and New Orleans' strong performance against Los Angeles so far has given it a little glimmer of hope, while Denver is most likely not going to make it two rounds.

Odds of Making the NBA Finals

1. Chicago - 43.9% (+2.6)

2. Miami - 42.2% (+3.6)

3. LA Lakers - 29.6% (-4.4)

4. Oklahoma City - 26.3% (+17.1)

5. Dallas - 17.1% (+2.8)

6. San Antonio - 13.7% (-6.8)

7. Boston - 10.2% (+1.8)

8. Memphis - 6.5% (N/A)

There are 3 Eastern Conference teams that could realistically make the Finals, and 5 Western Conference squads still in contention. Boston is the definite underdog of the 3 in the East, while the West is much more wide open. Denver and Orlando both dropped from this list this week, with Memphis adding its name to the list, which would be a major accomplishment for a team that had never won a playoff game just over a week ago.

Odds of Winning the Championship

1. Miami - 29.5% (+4.5)

2. Chicago - 28.1% (+1.3)

3. LA Lakers - 12.2% (-3.1)

4. Oklahoma City - 9.4% (N/A)

5. Dallas - 6.0% (+0.9)

6. San Antonio - 5.7% (-2.8)

7. Boston - 4.7% (N/A)

Boston and Oklahoma City have thrown their hats in as potential champions this year, while Denver and Orlando have caved in under the pressure of the playoffs. Oklahoma City has been the most impressive team in the West so far, with Miami taking that same honor in the East. The Eastern Conference's odds of winning the title have increased from 60.2% to 63.7%.

NBA Player of the Day

Chris Paul - NOH - 27 pts, 13 reb, 15 ast, 2 stl, 7-14 FG, 2-4 3P, 11-11 FT

Paul's historic triple-double over the Lakers has caused the Lakers to look vulnerable and the Hornets to look underrated in their first round series. Paul was only the second player in history to record at least 25 points, 10 rebounds, and 15 assists in a playoff game, and the other one was Oscar Robertson, who did it twice in the 1960's. And he did all that without David West, the team's leading scorer, who is out for the playoffs with an ACL injury.

Predictions - 25 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Spurs at Grizzlies - Grizz by 1

Trail Blazers at Mavericks - Mavs by 5

Thunder at Nuggets - Nuggets by 3

MLB

White Sox at Yankees - Yankees by 2.7

Nationals at Pirates - Nats by 4.2

Dodgers at Marlins - Marlins by 1.7

Blue Jays at Rangers - Jays by 2.0

Rockies at Cubs - Rockies by 2.3

Reds at Brewers - Brewers by 0.6

Phillies at Diamondbacks - Phillies by 1.2

Athletics at Angels - Angels by 2.1

Braves at Padres - Braves by 1.9

Prediction Results - 24 Apr

NBA Playoffs: 1-3 (.250) 22-9 overall (.710)

MLB: 9-6 (.600) 96-88 overall (.522)

Upsets: 2-1 (.667) 205-139 overall (.596)

Predictions - 24 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Heat at 76ers - Heat by 4

Celtics at Knicks - Celtics by 1

Magic at Hawks - Magic by 3

Lakers at Hornets - Lakers by 2

MLB

White Sox at Tigers - Tigers by 4.5

Rays at Blue Jays - Rays by 0.3

Diamondbacks at Mets - D-Backs by 3.6

Rockies at Marlins - Marlins by 2.9

Yankees at Orioles - Yankees by 3.0

Nationals at Pirates - Nats by 0.2

Indians at Twins - Indians by 6.2

Astros at Brewers - Brewers by 2.2

Dodgers at Cubs - Cubs by 2.0

Royals at Rangers - Rangers by 1.3

Red Sox at Angels - Angels by 5.2

Phillies at Padres - Phillies by 0.9

Braves at Giants - Braves by 0.3

Athletics at Mariners - Mariners by 0.8

Reds at Cardinals - Reds by 0.4

NBA Player of the Day

Brandon Roy - POR - 24 pts, 4 reb, 5 ast, 9-13 FG, 2-5 3P, 4-5 FT

He's come a long way in just two games. Nearly forgotten this season after undergoing multiple knee surgeries, Roy controlled the entire 4th quarter, rallying Portland from a 23-point deficit and scoring 18 points of his own in the final period. To add to the magical night, Roy was also the one to hit the game-winning jumper with less than a minute left in the game.

Prediction Results - 23 Apr

NBA Playoffs: 2-2 (.500) 21-6 overall (.778)

MLB: 7-8 (.467) 87-82 overall (.515)

Upsets: 4-2 (.667) 203-138 overall (.595)

Predictions - 23 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Bulls at Pacers - Bulls by 5

Mavericks at Trail Blazers - Blazers by 1

Spurs at Grizzlies - Grizz by 1

Thunder at Nuggets - Nuggets by 3

MLB

Dodgers at Cubs - Dodgers by 1.6

Rays at Blue Jays - Rays by 0.1

Diamondbacks at Mets - Mets by 1.6

Indians at Twins - Indians by 0.6

White Sox at Tigers - White Sox by 1.2

Reds at Cardinals - Cards by 1.8

Braves at Giants - Giants by 1.4

Yankees at Orioles - Yanks by 2.3

Nationals at Pirates - Nats by 0.8

Astros at Brewers - Brewers by 2.7

Rockies at Marlins - Rockies by 0.1

Royals at Rangers - Rangers by 1.2

Phillies at Padres - Phillies by 1.3

Red Sox at Angels - Angels by 1.7

Athletics at Mariners - A's by 1.7

NBA Player of the Day

Rajon Rondo - BOS - 15 pts, 11 reb, 20 ast, 2 stl, 5-13 FG, 5-6 FT

On a night when 3 Celtics had great performances, the best of all came from their point guard. He set a Boston franchise record for most assists in a playoff game, but I'm still not sure if that was more impressive than 11 rebounds from the smallest player on the floor. Boston's budding superstar has now led them to a 3-0 series lead and may have surpassed the Big 3 as the best player on the Celtics.

Prediction Results - 22 Apr

NBA Playoffs: 2-1 (.667) 19-4 overall (.826)

MLB: 6-6 (.500) 80-74 overall (.519)

Upsets: 3-1 (.750) 199-136 overall (.594)

NBA Playoff MVP Rankings - 22 Apr

The NBA Playoffs have been happening for about a week now, and several players have stood out as their teams have taken control of various series. Here is my statistical ranking of the top 5 players of the playoffs so far, with winning also a big factor in the equation (sorry, Danny Granger).

1. Dwight Howard - ORL - 39.5 pts, 19.0 reb, 1.0 blk

Howard played all but two minutes in the first two games of the Atlanta series, and although they failed to win game 1, Howard cannot be blamed for that. Orlando's big man has shot over 70% from both the field and the free throw line (not sure which is more impressive coming from him) and showed that he is ready to take over as the best player in the NBA.

2. Kevin Durant - OKC - 32.0 pts, 7.0 reb, 3.5 ast

The Thunder were believed by many, myself included, to be the team most likely to be upset in the first round of the playoffs, but Durant has not allowed the Nuggets to win a game yet, scoring 41 points in a close game 1 win, then scoring 23 points in their blowout of Denver in game 2.

3. LeBron James - MIA - 24.7 pts, 12.0 reb, 5.7 ast

James may not be the favorite to win the regular season MVP award (although the voting should have been closer than it probably will be), he is the reason that Miami is up 3-0 against the 76ers today. D-Wade struggled in the first two games, and James took control of those games, pulling down rebounds like a power forward and ensuring that Philadelphia wouldn't steal a game in Miami.

4. Derrick Rose - CHI - 32.7 pts, 5.7 reb, 4.7 ast

Rose is still scoring points and winning games, but his shooting percentage and assist average are both way down so far in the playoffs. It seems that both of those problems could be remedied in the same way - he needs to trust his teammates enough to pass the ball more often. He may be able to beat Indiana by himself, but he's going to need his teammates to beat Orlando and Miami.

5. Dwyane Wade - MIA - 21.0 pts, 7.7 reb, 5.0 ast

Wade was definitely not himself in the first two games, averaging only 15.5 points on 41% shooting, but his migraines cleared up in time for game 3, and he proved his health by nearly recording a triple-double as Miami beat the 76ers by 6 points to take a 3-0 lead in the series.

NBA Player of the Day

Dwyane Wade - MIA - 32 pts, 10 reb, 8 ast, 2 blk, 10-19 FG, 12-12 FT

Only six players in the last 20 years have reached 30 points, 10 rebounds, and 8 assists in a road playoff game, and the other 5 are all pretty good players too: Michael Jordan, Charles Barkley, LeBron James, Paul Pierce and Baron Davis. The strength of this game was nearly enough to make up for his poor showing in the previous two all by itself.

Predictions - 22 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Celtics at Knicks - Celtics by 1

Magic at Hawks - Magic by 3

Lakers at Hornets - Lakers by 2

MLB

Dodgers at Cubs - Cubs by 1.1

Yankees at Orioles - Yanks by 2.2

White Sox at Tigers - White Sox by 3.0

Nationals at Pirates - Nats by 0.3

Rays at Blue Jays - Rays by 1.7

Diamondbacks at Mets - D-Backs by 1.6

Rockies at Marlins - Rockies by 2.8

Royals at Rangers - Rangers by 0.8

Indians at Twins - Indians by 0.7

Astros at Brewers - Brewers by 1.8

Reds at Cardinals - Cards by 2.0

Red Sox at Angels - Angels by 2.8

Phillies at Padres - Phillies by 0.3

Athletics at Mariners - Mariners by 1.2

Braves at Giants - Braves by 1.0

Prediction Results - 21 Apr

NBA Playoffs: 3-0 (1.000) 17-3 overall (.850)

MLB: 7-4 (.636) 74-68 overall (.521)

Upsets: 5-1 (.833) 196-135 overall (.592)

Predictions - 21 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Bulls at Pacers - Bulls by 5

Heat at 76ers - Heat by 4

Mavericks at Trail Blazers - Blazers by 1

MLB

Diamondbacks at Reds - Reds by 3.9

Wizards at Cardinals - Cards by 3.5

Braves at Dodgers - Braves by 2.3

White Sox at Rays - White Sox by 1.4

Twins at Orioles - Orioles by 0.9

Astros at Mets - Astros by 0.5

Pirates at Marlins - Marlins by 1.4

Indians at Royals - Royals by 1.7

Red Sox at Angels - Angels by 1.0

Phillies at Padres - Phillies by 3.4

Athletics at Mariners - Mariners by 0.6

NBA Player of the Day

Kevin Durant - OKC - 23 pts, 5 reb, 5 ast, 7-15 FG, 3-7 3P, 6-7 FT

Durant didn't have to do as much as normal last night, as the Thunder raced out to a 26-point lead early in the 2nd quarter and never let it drop back to single digits. Oklahoma City has now beaten Denver 4 times in just over 2 weeks, which makes the Denver upset so many (including me) predicted look unlikely at this point.

Prediction Results - 20 Apr

NBA Playoffs: 3-0 (1.000) 14-3 overall (.824)

MLB: 7-10 (.412) 67-64 overall (.511)

Upsets: 3-6 (.333) 191-134 overall (.588)

MLB Rankings - 20 Apr

Baseball is one of the most unpredictable sports, especially early in the season, which has caused some extreme movement in the rankings this week. The longest winning streak in the entire league right now is just 3 games, so there are a lot of candidates to take the top spot. This week's rankings include team name, weekly record, overall record, offensive ranking, defensive ranking, and previous overall ranking.

Rank - Team - Week - Overall - Off - Def - Prev

1. Cleveland (4-2) (12-5) (2) (1) (10)

2. LA Angels (5-1) (11-6) (1) (3) (11)

3. Texas (2-4) (11-6) (4) (2) (1)

4. Kansas City (5-2) (11-6) (5) (4) (15)

5. Saint Louis (4-1) (8-8) (6) (6) (22)

6. Cincinnati (1-5) (9-8) (3) (11) (2)

7. San Francisco (5-1) (10-7) (8) (7) (21)

8. NY Yankees (4-2) (9-6) (7) (12) (20)

9. Milwaukee (4-3) (9-8) (14) (5) (16)

10. Chi Sox (0-6) (7-10) (13) (8) (5)

11. Atlanta (3-4) (8-10) (9) (18) (8)

12. Washington (3-2) (8-7) (10) (20) (13)

13. Boston (3-2) (5-11) (12) (23) (30)

14. Tampa Bay (5-1) (8-9) (16) (13) (18)

15. Baltimore (1-6) (7-9) (19) (10) (17)

16. Philadelphia (3-3) (10-6) (17) (16) (7)

17. Colorado (5-3) (12-5) (18) (14) (3)

18. Arizona (2-3) (7-8) (22) (9) (6)

19. Seattle (2-5) (6-12) (11) (26) (14)

20. Pittsburgh (3-4) (8-9) (21) (21) (12)

21. San Diego (3-3) (7-9) (23) (17) (27)

22. Florida (4-1) (9-6) (20) (22) (28)

23. Oakland (4-2) (9-8) (24) (15) (9)

24. Toronto (3-3) (8-9) (26) (19) (4)

25. Chi Cubs (3-2) (8-8) (15) (27) (26)

26. Houston (3-3) (6-11) (25) (25) (29)

27. Detroit (4-3) (8-10) (28) (24) (25)

28. LA Dodgers (2-5) (8-10) (27) (28) (23)

29. Minnesota (2-5) (6-11) (29) (30) (19)

30. NY Mets (1-6) (5-12) (30) (29) (24)

Hot

The Boston Red Sox entered this week as the worst team in the league, and they had to face a very good Toronto team in a 4-game series over the weekend, so things didn't look good for them, but they won three straight over the Jays while giving up only one run in each of them, and they are now looking like an average team.

The St. Louis Cardinals won their first 4 games of the past week in blowout fashion, averaging 11 runs in those wins while giving up only 3.5 runs per game. This week they play Washington, Cincinnati, and Houston, none of which has been playing well lately.

San Francisco's only loss of the week came in 12 innings in Arizona on Sunday evening, and their last two wins were especially impressive, as they beat up on the division leading Colorado Rockies on consecutive nights to prove that they are still the class of the NL West.

Cold

The Toronto Blue Jays were took the fallout from Boston's hot week, losing 3 straight games in which they only scored one run, then they opened their series with the Yankees by blowing a lead in the 9th inning and losing in the 10th. The result was a huge drop in the rankings.

The Colorado Rockies won 4 of their first 5 games this week, but the teams involved were the Mets and the Cubs, both of which are ranked in the bottom 6 teams currently, and two of the victories over New York were by just one run. A horrible start to their series with the Giants showed that many have overrated them so far.

Arizona lost the final game of their series with St. Louis by 10 runs last week, then managed only one win over the Giants in their weekend series at home. They certainly didn't look like a team that was ranked in the top 10 last week.

NBA Player of the Day

Carmelo Anthony - NYK - 42 pts, 17 reb, 6 ast, 2 blk, 14-30 FG, 4-8 3P, 10-11 FT

His team may not have won last night, but the Knicks were without two of their best three players, and Carmelo shouldered the extra load very well, keeping New York in the game clear up until the end, and if Jared Jeffries hadn't lost the ball underneath with 4 seconds left, everyone would have been celebrating Carmelo's game-winning assist rather than questioning his judgment on that final play.

Predictions - 20 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Nuggets at Thunder - Thunder by 2

Grizzlies at Spurs - Spurs by 5

Hornets at Lakers - Lakers by 7

MLB

Brewers at Phillies - Brewers by 0.1

Nationals at Cardinals - Nats by 0.1

Padres at Cubs - Padres by 0.4

Giants at Rockies - Giants by 2.6

Red Sox at Athletics - A's by 0.8

Tigers at Mariners - Mariners by 1.7

White Sox at Rays - Sox by 2.5

Twins at Orioles - Orioles by 2.7

Padres at Cubs - Padres by 6.0

Yankees at Blue Jays - Yanks by 1.3

Diamondbacks at Reds - Reds by 1.8

Astros at Mets - Mets by 0.9

Pirates at Marlins - Pirates by 1.6

Angels at Rangers - Rangers by 1.7

Indians at Royals - Indians by 1.8

Nationals at Cardinals - Cards by 3.0

Braves at Dodgers - Braves by 4.5

Prediction Results - 19 Apr

NBA Playoffs: 3-0 (1.000) 11-3 overall (.786)

MLB: 8-5 (.615) 60-54 overall (.526)

Upsets: 4-1 (.800) 188-128 overall (.595)

NBA Sweep Odds - 19 Apr

I've updated the odds of each team sweeping their first-round series to include the results of the opening games of each series (the two opening games in the cases of Miami and Chicago). Just like in my regular formula, there are many factors involved, including overall performance (which covers strength of schedule), momentum, and home court advantage. Here are the 8 remaining teams that could complete a first-round sweep, along with their odds of achieving it. Remember, these are not the odds of winning the series, just of winning the series in 4 games.

Chicago - 46.6%

Miami - 43.4%

Boston - 21.2%

Dallas - 15.9%

Memphis - 8.9%

Oklahoma City - 7.5%

New Orleans - 4.9%

Atlanta - 3.2%

NBA Player of the Day

LeBron James - MIA - 29 pts, 7 reb, 6 ast, 10-19 FG, 1-1 3P, 8-10 FT

This was an extremely close call between LeBron and Derrick Rose yesterday, with Rose outscoring James by 7 points, but also committing 6 turnovers to zero for LeBron. LeBron kept himself in the running for Finals MVP by shooting a better percentage than the Bulls' star.

Predictions - 19 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Knicks at Celtics - Celtics by 7

Hawks at Magic - Magic by 9

Trail Blazers at Mavericks - Mavs by 5

MLB

White Sox at Rays - Rays by 1.5

Twins at Orioles - Orioles by 1.2

Brewers at Phillies - Phillies by 3.9

Yankees at Blue Jays - Yanks by 0.2

Diamondbacks at Reds - DBacks by 0.5

Astros at Mets - Astros by 0.4

Pirates at Marlins - Marlins by 2.0

Angels at Rangers - Angels by 1.2

Padres at Cubs - Padres by 3.9

Indians at Royals - Royals by 1.1

Nationals at Cardinals - Cards by 0.9

Giants at Rockies - Giants by 1.9

Red Sox at Athletics - Sox by 1.8

Tigers at Mariners - Tigers by 1.0

Braves at Dodgers - Dodgers by 2.7

Prediction Results - 18 Apr

NBA Playoffs: 2-0 (1.000) 7-3 overall (.700)

MLB: 3-7 (.300) 52-49 overall (.515)

Predictions - 18 Apr

NBA

76ers at Heat - Heat by 9

Pacers at Bulls - Bulls by 11

MLB

White Sox at Rays - White Sox by 2.2

Twins at Orioles - Orioles by 0.7

Brewers at Phillies - Phillies by 1.9

Pirates at Reds - Reds by 1.2

Angels at Rangers - Angels by 0.1

Padres at Cubs - Cubs by 0.7

Indians at Royals - Indians by 1.2

Giants at Rockies - Rockies by 1.2

Tigers at Mariners - Tigers by 1.2

Braves at Dodgers - Braves by 3.5

NBA Player of the Day

Chris Paul - 33 pts, 7 reb, 14 ast, 4 stl, 11-18 FG, 2-3 3P, 9-12 FT

Chris Paul led a stunning upset of the Los Angeles Lakers, scoring 17 points in the 4th quarter while ensuring that the Hornets never trailed in the second half of their huge win. He was only the fifth player in playoff history to record at least 33-7-14, and the first one ever to perform the feat on the road.

Prediction Results - 17 Apr

NBA Playoffs: 2-2 (.500) 5-3 overall (.625)

MLB: 7-9 (.438) 49-42 overall (.538)

Upsets: 2-1 (.667) 184-127 overall (.592)

Predictions - 17 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Grizzlies at Spurs - Spurs by 5

Hornets at Lakers - Lakers by 8

Knicks at Celtics - Celtics by 7

Nuggets at Thunder - Thunder by 2

MLB

Orioles at Indians - Indians by 3.7

Pirates at Reds - Reds by 3.0

Blue Jays at Red Sox - Jays by 2.6

Mets at Braves - Braves by 1.9

Marlins at Phillies - Phillies by 1.8

Brewers at Nationals - Nats by 0.5

Twins at Rays - Rays by 1.9

Padres at Astros - Astros by 1.6

Angels at White Sox - Angels by 1.9

Mariners at Royals - Royals by 2.5

Cubs at Rockies - Rockies by 2.1

Tigers at Athletics - Tigers by 0.5

Giants at Diamondbacks - Giants by 1.4

Cardinals at Dodgers - Cards by 2.8

Brewers at Nationals - Nats by 0.5

Rangers at Yankees - Rangers by 2.1

NBA Player of the Day

Derrick Rose - CHI - 39 pts, 6 reb, 6 ast, 3 blk, 10-23 FG, 0-9 3P, 19-21 FT

Rose led Chicago's charge back from a huge deficit in game 1 against the Indiana Pacers, scoring the basket that tied the game with 1:27 to play, then getting the assist on Kyle Korver's 3-pointer that gave Chicago its first lead with 48 seconds left, and closing it out with two free throws with 14 seconds left. He may have missed all of his 3-pointer attempts, but he shot over 90% from the free throw line, and the Bulls maintained the home court advantage they'd worked so hard to earn.

Prediction Results - 16 Apr

NBA Playoffs: 3-1 (.750)

MLB: 9-5 (.643) 42-33 overall (.560)

Predictions - 16 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

Pacers at Bulls - Bulls by 11

76ers at Heat - Heat by 9

Hawks at Magic - Magic by 9

Trail Blazers at Mavericks - Mavs by 5

MLB

Orioles at Indians - Indians by 1.9

Rangers at Yankees - Rangers by 1.3

Brewers at Nationals - Nationals by 0.7

Pirates at Reds - Reds by 1.5

Blue Jays at Red Sox - Jays by 3.3

Mariners at Royals - Royals by 2.6

Mets at Braves - Braves by 0.8

Angels at White Sox - Angels by 0.5

Twins at Rays - Rays by 1.7

Padres at Astros - Padres by 0.4

Marlins at Phillies - Phillies by 1.9

Mets at Braves - Braves by 1.2

Giants at Diamondbacks - Giants by 1.4

Cubs at Rockies - Rockies by 3.7

Tigers at Athletics - Tigers by 2.4

Cardinals at Dodgers - Cards by 3.5

Prediction Results - 15 Apr

MLB: 9-5 (.643) 33-28 overall (.541)

Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 182-126 overall (.591)

NBA Playoff Odds

With the playoffs starting tomorrow, I decided to give an update on each team's odds of advancing in the playoffs and winning the title. After leading the league for nearly the entire season, the Spurs dropped to the #2 overall seed on the final day of the season, allowing Chicago the right to play on their home court to start every series and in any game 7 that may occur, a huge advantage to give an already good team.

Odds of a First Round Sweep

1. Chicago - 38.5%

2. Orlando - 26.7%

3. Miami - 24.9%

4. LA Lakers - 20.3%

5. Boston - 15.7%

6. San Antonio - 11.1%

7. Dallas - 10.2%

8. Denver - 7.9%

Odds of Winning First Round Series

1. Chicago - 97.5%

2. Orlando - 92.4%

3. Miami - 91.2%

4. LA Lakers - 86.8%

5. Boston - 80.5%

6. San Antonio - 71.0%

7. Dallas - 68.7%

8. Denver - 55.6%

To determine the other teams' odds of winning, just subtract their opponents' odds of winning from 100%. The only team with odds over 50% of pulling a first round upset is Denver, although Portland and Memphis are also very dangerous and could beat one of the Texas teams. The odds of a first-round upset occurring in the Eastern Conference are slim, at about 38.4%

Odds of Advancing to the Conference Finals

1. Miami - 70.7%

2. Chicago - 69.7%

3. LA Lakers - 58.4%

4. San Antonio - 38.2%

5. Denver - 31.6%

6. Orlando - 29.7%

7. Dallas - 29.5%

8. Boston - 24.8%

9. Oklahoma City - 21.6%

10. Portland - 8.9%

11. Memphis - 8.6%

The odds of the other teams advancing through 2 rounds and making the Conference Finals are below 4%, and therefore pretty unlikely. There is also a large dropoff between #9 and #10 on this list, but Portland and Memphis could make it if they can survive Texas in the first round. It should also be noted that Memphis has yet to win a playoff game in their history, so making it this far would already be a huge accomplishment.

Odds of making the NBA Finals

1. Chicago - 41.3%

2. Miami - 38.6%

3. LA Lakers - 34.0%

4. San Antonio - 20.5%

5. Denver - 16.2%

6. Dallas - 14.3%

7. Orlando - 11.2%

8. Oklahoma City - 9.2%

9. Boston - 8.4%

If Denver were to make the NBA Finals, and there is nearly a one in six chance that they will, it would be the first time in franchise history. It would also be the first time that Oklahoma City made it there, although they did make it to the Finals in Seattle back in the 90's.

Odds of Winning the Championship

1. Chicago - 26.8%

2. Miami - 25.0%

3. LA Lakers - 15.3%

4. San Antonio - 8.5%

5. Denver - 6.7%

6. Dallas - 5.1%

7. Orlando - 4.9%

Even though the Eastern Conference is not nearly as deep as the West, the top of the East is so strong that the odds of the NBA Champion coming from the Eastern Conference this season are 60.2%. Miami and Chicago are nearly even overall, but the advantage goes to Chicago because of the home court advantage it earned by playing so well over the last month of the season.

Finals Matchup Odds

Lakers vs. Celtics (again) - 2.9%

Carmelo Trade (Knicks vs. Nuggets) - 0.03%

Scoring Champs (Heat vs. Lakers or Thunder) - 16.7%

Going Green (Celtics vs. Mavericks) - 1.2%

Phil Jackson's teams (Lakers vs. Bulls) - 14.0%

Mammals (Bulls vs. Grizzlies) - 1.1%

MVP vs. MVP (not including Rose) - 32.3%

MVP vs. MVP (including Rose) - 60.7%

#1's - 8.4%

#8's - 0.000004%

Two Teams with no Championships - 3.8%

The last time two teams that had never won the championship met in the Finals was 2006, when Dallas and Miami played for the championship. The Lakers and Celtics have met 12 times in the Finals, by far the most commonly occurring matchup in history.

My Picks

Upset picks are in italics.

First Round

Bulls over Pacers in 4

Heat over 76ers in 5

Celtics over Knicks in 5

Magic over Hawks in 5

Spurs over Grizzlies in 5

Lakers over Hornets in 5

Mavericks over Trail Blazers in 5

Nuggets over Thunder in 6

Second Round

Bulls over Magic in 5

Heat over Celtics in 5

Nuggets over Spurs in 6

Lakers over Mavericks in 7

Conference Finals

Bulls over Heat in 7

Lakers over Nuggets in 7

NBA Finals

Bulls over Lakers in 6

Predictions - 15 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

MLB

Orioles at Indians - Indians by 0.5

Rangers at Yankees - Rangers by 2.7

Brewers at Nationals - Brewers by 0.8

Marlins at Phillies - Phillies by 4.1

Blue Jays at Red Sox - Blue Jays by 4.9

Twins at Rays - Rays by 1.1

Pirates at Reds - Reds by 4.5

Mets at Braves - Braves by 1.9

Padres at Astros - Astros by 0.3

Angels at White Sox - Angels by 1.1

Mariners at Royals - Royals by 2.4

Cubs at Rockies - Rockies by 3.4

Giants at Diamondbacks - Giants by 2.6

Tigers at Athletics - Athletics by 0.2

Cardinals at Dodgers - Cardinals by 3.1

Prediction Results - 14 Apr

MLB: 5-6 (.455) 24-23 overall (.511)

Upsets: 1-2 (.333) 182-125 overall (.593)

Predictions - 14 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

Possible upsets are underlined.

MLB

Rockies at Mets - Rockies by 1.3

Rockies at Mets - Mets by 2.7

Twins at Rays - Rays by 2.8

Orioles at Yankees - Orioles by 0.8

Phillies at Nationals - Phillies by 1.4

Brewers at Pirates - Brewers by 0

Marlins at Braves - Braves by 0.9

Padres at Astros - Padres by 0.2

Mariners at Royals - Royals by 3.5

Tigers at Athletics - Athletics by 4.1

Cardinals at Dodgers - Dodgers by 0.5

NBA Player of the Day

Kobe Bryant - LAL - 36 pts, 9 reb, 6 ast, 13-24 FG, 1-2 3P, 9-10 FT

Not only did Kobe outscore all other players in the league last night, but he also hit a game-tying 3-pointer with 5 seconds left in regulation and blocked the potential game-tying shot at the buzzer to send the Lakers to overtime, where they ran away from the Sacramento Kings and wrapped up the #2 seed in the Western Conference.

Prediction Results - 13 Apr

NBA: 8-7 (.533) 733-315 overall (.699)

MLB: 7-7 (.500) 19-17 overall (.528)

Upsets: 4-2 (.667) 181-123 overall (.595)

MLB Rankings - 13 Apr

To go along with my first baseball predictions of the season yesterday, I'm debuting my Major League Baseball rankings today. I've split up the offensive and defensive ratings to create my formula, and averaged the two together to come up with the overall rankings below. Each team's name is followed by its overall record, offensive ranking, and defensive ranking.

1. Texas (9-2) (2) (4)

2. Cincinnati (8-3) (1) (9)

3. Colorado (7-2) (7) (1)

4. Toronto (5-6) (3) (6)

5. Chi Sox (7-4) (12) (2)

6. Arizona (5-5) (6) (7)

7. Philadelphia (7-3) (4) (13)

8. Atlanta (5-6) (14) (5)

9. Oakland (5-6) (9) (12)

10. Cleveland (8-3) (10) (10)

11. LA Angels (6-5) (18) (3)

12. Pittsburgh (5-5) (8) (20)

13. Washington (5-5) (5) (24)

14. Seattle (4-7) (17) (11)

15. Kansas City (6-4) (11) (18)

16. Milwaukee (5-5) (16) (15)

17. Baltimore (6-3) (19) (8)

18. Tampa Bay (3-8) (13) (28)

19. Minnesota (4-6) (22) (16)

20. NY Yankees (5-4) (15) (29)

21. San Francisco (5-6) (20) (26)

22. Saint Louis (4-7) (23) (23)

23. LA Dodgers (6-5) (21) (27)

24. NY Mets (4-6) (27) (14)

25. Detroit (4-7) (26) (21)

26. Chi Cubs (5-6) (25) (22)

27. San Diego (4-6) (28) (19)

28. Florida (5-5) (24) (30)

29. Houston (3-8) (30) (17)

30. Boston (2-9) (29) (25)

I'll have a bit more analysis of my rankings in next week's edition of the baseball rankings.

NBA Player of the Day

Pau Gasol - LAL - 17 pts, 17 reb, 5 ast, 7-12 FG, 3-4 FT

17 points may be the lowest output of any Player of the Day I've named all season, but adding 17 points to the mix and beating the top-seeded Spurs certainly make this a very strong performance from Gasol. They'll need more games like this in the playoffs, especially if Andrew Bynum ends up missing more time with his latest knee injury.

Predictions - 13 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Knicks at Celtics - Celtics by 7

Nets at Bulls - Bulls by 17

Wizards at Cavaliers - Cavs by 2

Hornets at Mavericks - Mavs by 6

Rockets at Timberwovles - Rockets by 6

Pacers at Magic - Magic by 9

Pistons at 76ers - 76ers by 8

Bucks at Thunder - Thunder by 9

Nuggets at Jazz - Nuggets by 5

Heat at Raptors - Heat by 10

Hawks at Bobcats - Hawks by 0

Trail Blazers at Warriors - Blazers by 2

Grizzlies at Clippers - Grizz by 3

Lakers at Kings - Lakers by 7

Spurs at Suns - Spurs by 4

MLB

Rangers at Tigers - Tigers by 1

Royals at Twins - Royals by 1

Athletics at White Sox - Athletics by 0

Blue Jays at Mariners - Blue Jays by 3

Reds at Padres - Reds by 3

Phillies at Nationals - Nats by 0

Brewers at Pirates - Pirates by 0

Indians at Angels - Indians by 2

Orioles at Yankees - Orioles by 0

Marlins at Braves - Braves by 5

Rockies at Mets - Rockies by 8

Rays at Red Sox - Rays by 2

Cubs at Astros - Cubs by 4

Cardinals at Diamondbacks - D-Backs by 9

Dodgers at Giants - Giants by 3

Prediction Results - 12 Apr

NBA: 3-0 (1.000) 725-308 overall (.702)

MLB: 5-7 (.417) 12-10 overall (.545)

Upsets: 4-1 (.800) 177-121 overall (.594)

Predictions - 12 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Bulls at Knicks - Bulls by 4

Grizzlies at Trail Blazers - Blazers by 3

Spurs at Lakers - Lakers by 3

MLB

Rangers at Tigers - Rangers by 7

Orioles at Yankees - Yankees by 0

Phillies at Nationals - Phillies by 3

Brewers at Pirates - Pirates by 2

Rays at Red Sox - Red Sox by 1

Marlins at Braves - Marlins by 3

Rockies at Mets - Rockies by 8

Cubs at Astros - Astros by 5

Athletics at White Sox - White Sox by 3

Royals at Twins - Royals by 0

Cardinals at Diamondbacks - D-Backs by 2

Indians at Angels - Angels by 2

Reds at Padres - Padres by 2

Blue Jays at Mariners - Blue Jays by 2

Dodgers at Giants - Giants by 1

NBA Player of the Day

LeBron James - MIA - 34 pts, 10 reb, 7 ast, 3 stl, 10-21 FG, 2-4 3P, 12-14 FT

LeBron isn't quite ready to give up on earning his 3rd straight MVP just yet, and he used a big game against a depleted Atlanta Hawks team to show just how valuable he is. The win clinched the #2 seed in the East for Miami, which will allow them to have home court advantage for at least the first two rounds of the playoffs.

Prediction Results - 11 Apr

NBA: 6-5 (.545) 722-308 overall (.701)

Upsets: 0-2 (.000) 173-120 overall (.590)

NBA Rankings - 11 Apr

This week I've increased the strength of the momentum factor in my formula in hopes of being able to continue increasing the accuracy of my predictions, and as a result there is a bit more movement than usual in this week's rankings. Each team's name is followed by its weekly record, overall record, rating, and previous ranking.

1. Chicago (4-0) (60-20) -8.12 (3)

2. Miami (2-1) (56-24) -7.64 (1)

3. LA Lakers (0-4) (55-25) -7.11 (2)

4. Denver (2-2) (49-31) -6.99 (6)

5. San Antonio (3-0) (61-19) -6.91 (4)

6. Oklahoma City (4-0) (54-26) -5.80 (9)

7. Orlando (2-1) (50-30) -5.53 (7)

8. Boston (2-2) (55-25) -5.46 (5)

9. Dallas (2-1) (55-25) -5.18 (8)

10. Memphis (2-1) (46-34) -4.47 (10)

11. Houston (1-2) (42-38) -4.19 (11)

12. Portland (2-1) (47-33) -4.14 (12)

13. New Orleans (2-1) (46-34) -2.69 (13)

14. Philadelphia (1-2) (41-39) -2.34 (14)

15. New York (4-0) (42-38) -1.79 (15)

16. Phoenix (1-3) (38-42) -0.38 (17)

17. Milwaukee (2-2) (33-47) -0.10 (18)

18. Indiana (2-1) (37-44) 0.45 (19)

19. Atlanta (0-3) (44-36) 0.48 (16)

20. Golden State (2-1) (35-45) 0.51 (21)

21. Utah (1-2) (37-43) 1.12 (20)

22. LA Clippers (1-3) (31-50) 1.34 (22)

23. Detroit (3-1) (29-51) 2.48 (23)

24. Sacramento (2-2) (24-56) 3.13 (25)

25. Charlotte (0-4) (32-48) 3.73 (24)

26. Minnesota (0-3) (17-63) 4.76 (26)

27. Toronto (1-3) (22-58) 5.17 (27)

28. New Jersey (1-3) (24-56) 5.46 (28)

29. Washington (2-2) (22-58) 6.64 (29)

30. Cleveland (2-2) (17-63) 7.80 (30)

Feeling Hoppy

Last week there was talk that Oklahoma City could fall behind Denver into the 5th spot in the West, but they made sure to end that talk this week with four straight wins, including 2 over those Denver Nuggets. They capped off a perfect week with a huge road upset of the Lakers last night, which put them only one game behind the Lakers and Mavericks for the 2nd seed in the West. What a difference a week makes.

The Dallas Mavericks rebounded from a loss to Denver early in the week by beating down the Clippers and Suns over the weekend, which was enough to pull them into a tie with Los Angeles for the #2 spot in the West. They still have two tough games left, but even their recent 4-game losing streak didn't knock them out of contention.

The New York Knicks won four straight this week, including two close wins over the teams closest to them in the Eastern Conference standings and two blowouts of teams that have known they will miss the playoffs for months. Their seven straight wins negated the damage caused by the preceding 6-game losing streak, and they are now sitting in 6th place in the East.

Laying Eggs

If you were paying close attention to my rankings above, you may have noticed that the worst team in the playoffs is not the Indiana Pacers, but the Atlanta Hawks, who may still end up with the East's 5th seed. They got consistently worse this week, losing by 7 to San Antonio, then 12 to the Pacers, and finally 32 to the Wizards.

10 days ago, the Lakers were looking unstoppable, having won 17 of 18 games since the All-Star Break, but this week they failed to win a single game, and two of those games were against non-playoff competition. Just when it looked like the had the second seed all sewn up, now they're in a 3-way dogfight with just two games to go.

Boston didn't play a close game all week, but that wasn't necessarily a good thing. They did win two of those games, but both were against teams much lower in the rankings than the Celtics. The bad part was the two road losses to the other top Eastern teams, Chicago and Miami, who both beat Boston by at least 16 points, showing that there may be a new team representing the East in this year's Finals.

NBA Player of the Day

Derrick Rose - CHI - 39 pts, 3 reb, 5 ast, 13-17 FG, 3-5 3P, 10-10 FT

Even though they Bulls have already clinched the best record in the East, Rose has not let up, beating yet another of the top contenders in the East yesterday in Orlando by scoring 39 points and hitting four important free throw down the stretch in a probably second round playoff preview.

Predictions - 11 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Heat at Hawks - Heat by 5

Bobcats at Nets - Nets by 1

Magic at 76ers - Magic by 1

Celtics at Wizards - Celtics by 9

Cavaliers at Pistons - Pistons by 8

Jazz at Hornets - Hornets by 7

Raptors at Bucks - Bucks by 8

Mavericks at Rockets - Rockets by 2

Warriors at Nuggets - Nuggets by 10

Thunder at Kings - Thunder by 6

Timberwolves at Suns - Suns by 8

Prediction Results - 10 Apr

NBA: 4-5 (.444) 716-303 overall (.703)

Upsets: 2-2 (.500) 173-118 overall (.595)

Predictions - 10 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Bulls at Magic - Magic by 1

Celtics at Heat - Heat by 4

Nets at Raptors - Raptors by 3

Hornets at Grizzlies - Grizz by 3

Pistons at Bobcats - Bobcats by 3

Knicks at Pacers - Pacers by 1

Suns at Mavericks - Mavs by 7

Kings at Warriors - Warriors by 6

Thunder at Lakers - Lakers by 5

NBA Player of the Day

Ty Lawson - DEN - 37 pts, 7 reb, 6 ast, 11-16 FG, 10-11 3P, 5-6 FT

Lawson had the best night of his career by far last night, breaking the career high of 28 points he had set 5 nights earlier and tying his career high with 7 rebounds in the same game. He also set a new NBA record for most consecutive 3-pointers made to start a game without a miss, with 10 in a row going in before he missed one at the 3rd quarter buzzer. His previous career high for 3-pointers was 3 in a game, and he outscored Minnesota 24-18 by himself in the 3rd quarter.

Prediction Results - 9 Apr

NBA: 4-1 (.800) 712-298 overall (.705)

Coming Soon: Baseball Predictions

Baseball season has started, but you may have noticed that I haven't published any baseball predictions here on my blog yet. That is because predicting the outcome of baseball games is much trickier than basketball and football, the other sports I've been predicting for years. There are a couple of reasons for this.

The biggest difference between baseball and the other sports is the pitching rotation. In predicting football or basketball games, the lineup on the court or field does not vary much from game to game, excepting cases involving trades or injuries. In baseball, the pitcher, probably the most important player on the field, rotates from day to day. It would be somewhat like a football team using 5 different quarterback and switching them each week. Because of that, I can't just duplicate my regular formula and apply it to baseball. What I've done is separate out each team's defensive ratings by starting pitcher and score each separately. When predicting football or basketball, it usually takes about 4 games before there is enough data to make reasonable assumptions about future games, and the same stands true for baseball, but with this reworked formula, that means that each pitcher will have to start 4 games before the formula becomes regularly accurate. I'm currently testing the formula daily and watching for signs that enough matchups have taken place to make it accurate enough to publish. That could happen next week, or it may still be two weeks away, but it is forthcoming.

The other obstacle in predicting baseball is the lower scoring outputs. In football, each scoring play is worth between 2 and 8 points, but in basketball and baseball you can only score between 1 and 4 points on a single play. In basketball it is much more common to score almost 50% of the time the ball is in play, but that is not the case in baseball, where 10 points is considered extremely high scoring. This means that the difference between two teams is much less, and one extra score can have a much larger impact than it would in the other sports.

With that being said, I still believe that my formula will produce a good winning percentage once enough data has been gathered. Keep watching, and I promise that baseball predictions and rankings will be coming soon.

NBA Player of the Day

Zach Randolph - MEM - 27 pts, 15 reb, 4 ast, 4 stl, 10-18 FG, 7-10 FT

Randolph's game was larger than the man himself last night, and he capped it off with two free throw in the final 5 seconds to clinch the victory and the final available playoff spot in the entire league as the Grizzlies held off a late surge from Sacramento. The Grizzlies made the playoffs for the first time in 5 years, and hope to win a playoff game for the first time in franchise history later this month.

Predictions - 9 Apr

NBA

Hawks at Wizards - Hawks by 5

Clippers at Rockets - Rockets by 8

Cavaliers at Bucks - Bucks by 11

Jazz at Spurs - Spurs by 11

Timberwolves at Nuggets - Nuggets by 13

Prediction Results - 8 Apr

NBA: 10-2 (.833) 708-297 overall (.704)

Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 171-116 overall (.596)

NBA MVP Rankings - 8 Apr

With only one week left in the regular season, the top two records in the league have basically been clinched, one by a team with lots of stars but no superstar, and the other by a team led by a true young superstar. Barring a huge collapse from Chicago to end the season, it is looking like Derrick Rose will be the MVP in 2011, but there are still a few players positioning themselves for second place. Here are the second-to-last rankings of the season, with last week's rankings in parentheses.

Most Valuable Player

1. Derrick Rose - CHI - 25.1 pts, 4.2 reb, 7.9 ast (3)

Rose hit for 30 points twice this week, the most important coming in last night's win over Boston that basically locked up the top seed in the East, and the Bulls have won 5 straight games. They now sit 1/2 game behind the Spurs for the best record in the league, and if Rose can lead Chicago past them, he will not lose the MVP race.

2. LeBron James - MIA - 26.7 pts, 7.5 reb, 7.0 ast (1)

LeBron played pretty well last night, tallying 29 points and 8 assists on the night, but his Heat lost for the second time in 9 days to a team that will miss the playoffs, and along with it lost their shot at the top seed in the East, which means a probable second round date with Boston.

3. Dwyane Wade - MIA - 25.7 pts, 6.5 reb, 4.5 ast (2)

Wade sat out Miami's loss to Milwaukee last night, and his slim MVP chances have all but evaporated now that the Heat won't finish at the top of the East. Without being the best player on his own team, he won't get many votes as the most valuable player in the league.

4. Kobe Bryant - LAL - 25.1 pts, 5.1 reb, 4.7 ast (4)

Kobe would have moved up into third place this week if the Lakers hadn't gone from incredibly hot to a 3-game losing streak almost overnight. The loss to Utah can be pinned directly on Kobe, after he let the ball slip out of his hands in the final seconds of a 1-point loss.

5. Kevin Durant - OKC - 27.8 pts, 6.9 reb, 2.8 ast (6)

Durant had 32 points and 9 rebounds in Oklahoma City's win over Denver this week, which was doubly important for the Thunder, who will likely face the Nuggets in the first round of the playoffs. To add to that, the Nuggets had been one of the hottest teams in the league heading into that game, and the Thunder shut them down behind Durant's leadership.

6. Pau Gasol - LAL - 18.9 pts, 10.1 reb, 3.3 ast (5)

Pau did not reach 20 points in any of the Lakers' 4 games this week, and the Lakers lost 3 of 4. The Lakers are a team that needs both of their stars hitting on all cylinders to be successful, and Kobe has been doing his job, for the most part.

7. Russell Westbrook - OKC - 21.8 pts, 4.6 reb, 8.2 ast (7)

It wasn't a great week for Westbrook, but he didn't do enough damage to his overall season to justify dropping him any farther in the rankings. There is a good chance that he could be passed up next week, but that depends on how Dwight Howard finishes.

8. Dwight Howard - ORL - 23.1 pts, 14.1 reb, 2.4 blk (9)

Howard scored 31 points against Toronto on Sunday, then had 18 points and 17 rebounds against Milwaukee on Tuesday, but in Wednesday's game against Charlotte he was charged with his 18th technical of the season, meaning that he will have to sit out Orlando's showdown with Chicago on Sunday.

9. Dirk Nowitzki - DAL - 23.0 pts, 7.0 reb, 2.5 ast (8)

Dallas has lost four straight games, and Dirk's highest scoring output of the week was 20 points in their loss to Denver on Wednesday. If they're not careful, they'll slip down to the 4th seed and have to face the red-hot Nuggets in the first round.

10. LaMarcus Aldridge - POR - 21.8 pts, 8.7 reb, 2.1 ast (10)

Aldridge did nothing special this week, other than keeping his Trail Blazers in the 6th spot in the West. With a playoff berth already wrapped up, Aldridge needs to make sure he can stay healthy for the playoffs, because the last thing Portland needs is another injury.

Rookie of the Year

1. Blake Griffin - LAC - 22.5 pts, 12.2 reb, 3.7 ast (1)

Griffin put on a show in his hometown on Wednesday, scoring 35 points to go with 11 rebounds and 8 dunks as the Clippers nearly pulled off the huge upset of the Thunder, who clinched their division title that night.

2. John Wall - WAS - 16.3 pts, 4.6 reb, 8.5 ast (2)

Wall came back after missing a game and a half with a very strong week, scoring 26 points to go with his 12 assists against Detroit, and helping the Wizards to their first 3-game winning streak of the season.

3. DeMarcus Cousins - SAC - 14.1 pts, 8.7 reb, 2.5 ast (3)

Cousins posted two straight double-doubles in Texas this week, a pretty good feat for any rookie, especially one who had not posted back-to-back double-doubles in three weeks.

4. Greg Monroe - DET - 9.3 pts, 7.4 reb, 1.3 ast (5)

Cousins wasn't the only rookie not named Blake Griffin to post consecutive double-doubles this week. Greg Monroe did it too, and both of his came with 20-point scoring outputs as well.

5. Landry Fields - NYK - 9.8 pts, 6.3 reb, 1.9 ast (4)

Fields has become the forgotten man in New York lately, averaging under 5 points, 3 rebounds, and 2 assists per game in New York's five-game winning streak. Maybe it would have been better if he had been sent to Denver in the Carmelo trade.

Sixth Man of the Year

1. Lamar Odom - LAL - 14.3 pts, 8.7 reb, 3.0 ast (1)

I believe that Odom should have this award wrapped up, but I'm not sure that the voters quite see it that way yet. After he completely showed up the player (Jason Terry) that most believe to be his closest competitor a week ago, how can you argue with giving it to him?

2. Ramon Sessions - CLE - 13.0 pts, 3.2 reb, 5.2 ast (NR)

Sessions has returned to his role as a backup, which has made him eligible for this award once again, and the Cavaliers are playing better with him in that role, winning two in a row for the first time since early November.

3. Jason Terry - DAL - 15.9 pts, 1.9 reb, 4.2 ast (2)

Terry has only scored in double figures twice in the past five games, and the Mavericks have only won once in that time. With both him and Nowitzki struggling, Dallas is limping into the playoffs in a season where they were once threatening for the best record.

4. Shawn Marion - DAL - 12.3 pts, 6.8 reb, 1.3 ast (3)

At least one Maverick has been on his game this week. Shawn Marion averaged over 20 points per game this week while grabbing nearly 8 rebounds to go with it. Marion made 67% of his shots this week and looked like the Matrix of old for a while.

5. J.R. Smith - DEN - 12.1 pts, 4.1 reb, 2.2 ast (5)

Smith's 23 points in Dallas on Wednesday were enough to just barely keep him holding on to this spot ahead of Thaddeus Young, who was at #4 last week. The Nuggets seem to be just fine with Smith streakiness, just considering it a bonus when he's on.

Most Improved Player

1. Dorell Wright - GSW - +9.1 pts, +2.0 reb, +1.6 ast (1)

Wright shot under 25% for the week and dealt a bit of a blow to his MIP candidacy, but when looking at his improvement overall from last season, it's obvious that he should be among the top few candidates.

2. D.J. Augustin - CHA - +8.0 pts, +1.6 reb, +3.5 ast (2)

The Bobcats have finally been eliminated from playoff contention, but Augustin did all he could this week to keep them in range of the Pacers. Two straight games of 20+ points weren't quite enough, but Augustin should be a solid point guard for Charlotte going forward.

3. Kevin Love - MIN - +6.2 pts, +4.2 reb, +0.2 ast (3)

Love is most likely out for the season, but what a season it was for the new rebound king. He broke Moses Malone's modern record for consecutive double-doubles and played in his first All-Star Game, all despite playing for a team that is now in last place overall.

4. Nick Young - WAS - +8.8 pts, +1.3 reb, +0.6 ast (4)

Young is another player who had a huge improvement while playing for one of the league's worst teams. Young did not make an appearance in the All-Star Game, but it may not be too far off in his future if he continues his upward trend next season.

5. Jrue Holiday - PHI - +5.9 pts, +1.4 reb, +2.6 ast (5)

Philadelphia has slipped to the 7th spot in the East with 3 straight losses, but Holiday has scored in double figures in 9 straight games now, his third-longest streak of the season. He will be the only player from this list who gets to keep playing after next week.

NBA Player of the Day

Derrick Rose - CHI - 30 pts, 5 reb, 8 ast, 2 stl, 9-16 FG, 2-5 3P, 10-10 FT

Rose showed why he is the leading MVP candidate last night as he tore apart the Boston Celtics, Chicago's nearest competitor in the East, en route to a win that nearly clinched the top spot for the Bulls. Chicago will be the top seed in the East next time they win or Boston loses.

Predictions - 8 Apr

Upsets picks are in italics.

Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Hawks at Pacers - Pacers by 2

Knicks at Nets - Knicks by 4

Raptors at 76ers - 76ers by 10

Wizards at Celtics - Celtics by 16

Bulls at Cavaliers - Bulls by 13

Bucks at Pistons - Bucks by 1

Bobcats at Heat - Heat by 13

Suns at Hornets - Hornets by 5

Nuggets at Thunder - Thunder by 1

Kings at Grizzlies - Grizz by 10

Clippers at Mavericks - Mavs by 9

Lakers at Trail Blazers - Lakers by 1

Prediction Results - 7 Apr

NBA: 2-0 (1.000) 698-295 overall (.703)

Predictions - 7 Apr

Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Celtics at Bulls - Bulls by 4

Trail Blazers at Jazz - Blazers by 1

NBA Player of the Day

Blake Griffin - LAC - 35 pts, 11 reb, 6 ast, 15-20 FG, 5-8 FT

Another great game from Griffin wasn't quite enough as the Clippers were unable to upset the Thunder in Griffin's hometown last night. Griffin was fouled on a dunk attempt in the final minute that would have tied the game, but he missed one of the free throws and Oklahoma City was able to hit their late foul shots.

Prediction Results - 6 Apr

NBA: 7-5 (.583) 696-295 overall (.702)

Predictions - 6 Apr

Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Wizards at Pacers - Pacers by 9

Knicks at 76ers - 76ers by 4

Cavaliers at Raptors - Raptors by 6

Magic at Bobcats - Magic by 6

Nets at Pistons - Pistons by 5

Suns at Timberwolves - Suns by 3

Rockets at Hornets - Hornets by 3

Bucks at Heat - Heat by 11

Clippers at Thunder - Thunder by 9

Nuggets at Mavericks - Mavericks by 2

Kings at Spurs - Spurs by 13

Lakers at Warriors - Lakers by 5

NBA Player of the Day

David Lee - GSW - 29 pts, 20 reb, 2 ast, 2 stl, 13-17 FG, 3-3 FT

Lee did everything he could, including grabbing a season-high 20 rebounds, to prevent the Trail Blazers from clinching a playoff berth last night, but even after his efforts stopped Portland from winning the game, a loss by the Rockets at the same time put Portland in the playoffs again this year.

Prediction Results - 5 Apr

NBA: 6-7 (.462) 689-290 overall (.704)

Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 170-116 overall (.594)

Predictions - 5 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Spurs at Hawks - Spurs by 3

Bobcats at Cavaliers - Bobcats by 3

Timberwolves at Nets - Nets by 2

Bucks at Magic - Magic by 9

Pistons at Wizards - Pistons by 1

76ers at Celtics - Celtics by 7

Raptors at Knicks - Knicks by 9

Suns at Bulls - Bulls by 10

Clippers at Grizzlies - Grizzlies by 8

Kings at Rockets - Rockets by 10

Thunder at Nuggets - Nuggets by 4

Warriors at Trail Blazers - Blazers by 8

Jazz at Lakers - Lakers by 11

Prediction Results - 4 Apr

NCAA Tournament: 1-0 (1.000) 44-23 overall (.657)

NBA Rankings and Playoff Odds - 4 Apr

We are now in the home stretch of the NBA season. 12 teams have clinched playoff berths already, and there are 7 teams still in contention for the final 4 spots. With my usual overall rankings today, I'm also adding in the projected order of finish below, along with odds of each team making and winning the Finals. The rankings have team name followed by weekly record, overall record, rating, and previous ranking.

1. Miami (3-1) (54-23) -7.07 (2)

2. LA Lakers (2-1) (55-21) -6.86 (3)

3. Chicago (3-1) (56-20) -6.73 (1)

4. San Antonio (1-3) (58-19) -6.30 (4)

5. Boston (2-2) (53-23) -5.56 (5)

6. Denver (3-0) (47-29) -5.30 (7)

7. Orlando (1-3) (48-29) -5.04 (6)

8. Dallas (1-3) (53-24) -4.19 (8)

9. Oklahoma City (2-2) (50-26) -3.75 (9)

10. Memphis (3-0) (44-33) -3.21 (10)

11. Houston (3-1) (41-36) -2.76 (11)

12. Portland (3-1) (45-32) -2.62 (13)

13. New Orleans (2-1) (44-33) -2.40 (12)

14. Philadelphia (3-1) (40-37) -1.88 (14)

15. New York (3-0) (38-38) -0.59 (16)

16. Atlanta (2-1) (44-33) -0.23 (17)

17. Phoenix (1-3) (37-39) -0.04 (15)

18. Milwaukee (2-2) (31-45) 0.78 (18)

19. Indiana (3-1) (35-43) 1.23 (20)

20. Utah (0-3) (36-41) 1.51 (19)

21. Golden State (1-2) (33-44) 2.06 (21)

22. LA Clippers (1-2) (30-47) 2.24 (22)

23. Detroit (0-3) (26-50) 3.59 (24)

24. Charlotte (2-2) (32-44) 3.71 (23)

25. Sacramento (2-2) (22-54) 4.34 (25)

26. Minnesota (0-3) (17-60) 5.27 (26)

27. Toronto (1-2) (21-55) 5.62 (28)

28. New Jersey (0-4) (23-53) 5.65 (27)

29. Washington (3-1) (20-56) 7.09 (29)

30. Cleveland (1-3) (15-61) 9.14 (30)

April Flowers

The Philadelphia 76ers started off the week very well, beating the Bulls in Chicago by 12 points before beating the Rockets by 11 two nights later. Both teams had a lot to play for, but the 76ers showed that they deserve the playoff berth they clinched this week by beating both.

Not only did the Washington Wizards avoid tying the all-time record for least road wins in a season when they beat Utah on Monday, but they distanced themselves from it by winning their third road game of the season yesterday in Charlotte.

Portland faced 3 Western Conference playoff teams this week, which makes their 3-1 record this week even more impressive. They beat San Antonio on the road and Dallas and Oklahoma City at home, with a loss to New Orleans as the only blemish on a very strong week.

It may be strange to say that a team that won only once this week is hot, but that's exactly what happens when that team is the Cleveland Cavaliers, and that victory is over the Miami Heat. They lost all three of their road games this week, but beating the Heat and local villain LeBron James probably meant more to them anyway.

Memphis did exactly what they had to this week, winning all three of their games by double digits to solidify their hold on one of the final playoff spots in the West. Especially important was their win over New Orleans, the team they are currently tied with for the 7th seed. If they beat them again this week they earn the tiebreak over them.

April Fools

After losing a tough game to the Lakers in the middle of the week, the Dallas Mavericks seemed to resign themselves to the fact that they will be the third seed in the West, and that they had nothing left to play for in the regular season, which showed quite clearly in losses at Golden State and Portland later in the week.

No one expected the Charlotte Bobcats to win in Orlando this week, but when you're sitting outside the playoff race but still alive, you need to be able to beat the Washington Wizards, a team that had only won twice on the road all season, when they visit your home court late in the season.

So much for the good signs that New Jersey showed after the Deron Williams trade. The Nets have now lost 10 of their last 11 games, and the lone victory was an overtime victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers, not exactly the quality win that would make this cold streak look a little nicer.

Orlando just could not win a road game this week, losing close ones to New York, Atlanta, and Toronto, all teams that are far inferior to the Magic, a team that claims to have championship ambitions. If they keep playing like this, they'll be waiting for next year again.

Last week the Chicago Bulls were one of the hottest teams in the league. This week, even though they lost only once, that loss came to the only playoff-caliber team they faced, the Philadelphia 76ers. Their 3 victories were all unimpressive wins over even less impressive teams that gave up on the playoffs months ago.

Seeding Projections

Here are my projected final standings for each conference, with projected record in parentheses. Only teams still mathematically alive are included.

East

1. Chicago (60-22)

2. Miami (58-24)

3. Boston (57-25)

4. Orlando (51-31)

5. Atlanta (46-36)

6. Philadelphia (43-39)

7. New York (41-41)

8. Indiana (37-45)

9. Milwaukee (34-48)

10. Charlotte (34-48)

West

1. San Antonio (61-21)

2. LA Lakers (59-23)

3. Dallas (56-26)

4. Oklahoma City (53-29)

5. Denver (51-31)

6. Portland (48-34)

7. Memphis (47-35)

8. New Orleans (47-35)

9. Houston (44-38)

Playoff Odds

First Round

Odds of each projected top-4 seed winning their first round series.

1. Chicago - 78.4

2. Miami - 73.3

3. Orlando - 67.7

4. San Antonio - 64.6

5. Boston - 63.9

6. LA Lakers - 63.8

7. Dallas - 56.7

8. Oklahoma City - 46.1

As you can see, the top 4 seeds in the East all look pretty strong as far as advancing through the first round is involved. Oklahoma City is the top seed I feel is most likely to lose in the first round, but I would guess that there will be as many as three top seeds falling in the first round.

Finals

These are the odds of each team winning their conference and advancing to the Finals.

1. Chicago - 27.6

2. Miami - 25.7

3. LA Lakers - 22.8

4. San Antonio - 20.8

5. Boston - 16.7

6. Orlando - 16.2

7. Denver - 14.1

8. Dallas - 12.2

9. Oklahoma City - 9.7

10. Memphis - 7.5

11. Portland - 7.1

12. New Orleans - 5.9

13. Philadelphia - 5.2

14. Atlanta - 3.4

15. New York - 3.3

16. Indiana - 1.9

Champions

These are the odds of each team winning the championship this season.

1. Chicago - 15.6

2. Miami - 14.6

3. LA Lakers - 12.6

4. San Antonio - 11.3

5. Boston - 8.7

6. Orlando - 8.0

7. Denver - 6.8

8. Dallas - 5.5

9. Oklahoma City - 4.2

10. Memphis - 3.1

11. Portland - 2.8

12. New Orleans - 2.3

13. Philadelphia - 2.0

14T. Atlanta - 1.1

14T. New York - 1.1

16. Indiana - 0.5

The top two seeds in each conference have the strongest odds of winning the championship, as would be expected. There is a 54.1% chance that one of those 4 teams will wind up holding up the trophy at the end of the season.

NBA Player of the Day

LeBron James - MIA - 31 pts, 11 reb, 7 ast, 3 stl, 13-18 FG, 5-8 FT

LeBron showed off his all-around skills once again as he led Miami to a road victory over New Jersey, a win which clinched the division title for the Heat, the first time they have accomplished that since 2007. The only thing he struggled in last night was turning the ball over, which he did 7 times out of his team's 15.

Predictions - 4 Apr

Possible upsets are underlined.

NCAA Tournament

(8) Butler vs. (3) Connecticut - UConn by 4

Prediction Results - 3 Apr

NBA: 7-4 (.636) 683-283 overall (.707)

Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 170-115 overall (.596)

Predictions - 3 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Suns at Spurs - Spurs by 9

Nuggets at Lakers - Lakers by 5

Pistons at Celtics - Celtics by 12

Heat at Nets - Heat by 10

Cavaliers at Knicks - Knicks by 12

Jazz at Kings - Jazz by 1

Magic at Raptors - Magic by 9

Wizards at Bobcats - Bobcats by 7

Pacers at Hornets - Hornets by 6

Hawks at Rockets - Rockets by 5

Mavericks at Trail Blazers - Blazers by 1

NBA Player of the Day

Derrick Rose - CHI - 36 pts, 3 reb, 10 ast, 3 blk, 11-20 FG, 1-4 3P, 13-14 FT

Rose has been on fire lately, scoring 30 points for the third time in the past five games, and the Bulls have taken control of the Eastern Conference with another commanding victory over the Raptors. Rose is now the first Bull in 25 years to have at least six games of 30 points and 10 assists in one season, and the last person to do it is pretty easy to guess.

Prediction Results - 2 Apr

NBA: 2-3 (.400) 676-279 overall (.708)

NCAA Tournament: 1-1 (.500) 43-23 overall (.652)

Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 168-115 (.594)

Predictions - 2 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Raptors at Bulls - Bulls by 16

Timberwolves at Grizzlies - Grizzlies by 11

76ers at Bucks - 76ers by 1

Mavericks at Warriors - Mavs by 4

Thunder at Clippers - Thunder by 4

NCAA Tournament

(11) VCU vs. (8) Butler - Butler by 2

(4) Kentucky vs. (3) Connecticut - Kentucky by 3

NBA Player of the Day

Andray Blatche - WAS - 36 pts, 19 reb, 4 ast, 15-32 FG, 6-9 FT

Blatche had a career night for the Wizards, setting new career highs in points, rebounds, and offensive rebounds (16), while guiding Washington to a win over Cleveland, the only team in the league with a worse overall record.

Prediction Results - 1 Apr

NBA: 10-3

Upsets: 1-0

NBA MVP Rankings - 1 Apr

After a short hiatus to focus more time on the NCAA Tournament, I've brought back my MVP rankings this week, but the faces haven't changed that much despite the time off. I'm still at odds with the majority of the world on my choice for MVP, but most seem to disagree with my choices for Most Improved and Sixth Man also. I'm just telling it like the numbers are telling me. Here are my updated rankings, with previous ranking in parentheses.

Most Valuable Player

1. LeBron James - MIA - 26.6 pts, 7.5 reb, 6.9 ast (1)

Since the last time I updated, the Heat have gone 8-2 and LeBron has averaged 28.9 points over that time. It is hard to dispute that he is the best player in the league, and his team is still in contention for the top seed in the East. The fact that he won the past 2 MVP awards is being held against him.

2. Dwyane Wade - MIA - 25.8 pts, 6.5 reb, 4.5 ast (3)

As good as LeBron's been lately, Wade has been keeping pace, averaging 27.4 points over the same 10-game span and putting Miami in position to pass the Celtics and Bulls to lock up the top seed. I believe that LeBron is a bigger part of the reason for Miami's success, but Wade is a very close second.

3. Derrick Rose - CHI - 25.0 pts, 4.2 reb, 7.9 ast (2)

The Bulls have also lost only twice in the past three weeks, and if they had won those two, I would have put Rose neck-and-neck with LeBron for the MVP lead, but what happened in their last loss was disturbing. Rose's turnover total (10) was greater than his combined assists and rebounds (9).

4. Kobe Bryant - LAL - 25.2 pts, 5.2 reb, 4.8 ast (4)

The Lakers have not lost in three weeks, and have only lost once to Miami since the All-Star break, and Kobe is the main reason why. He nearly recorded a huge triple-double against Phoenix, finishing with 42 points, 12 rebounds, and 9 assists in their closest game since Miami.

5. Pau Gasol - LAL - 19.0 pts, 10.2 reb, 3.4 ast (5)

Pau has scored at least 20 points in 6 of the last 7 games for Los Angeles, and they are undeniably the hottest team in the league today. If he keeps up this pace, who knows if the Lakers will lose again.

6. Kevin Durant - OKC - 27.8 pts, 6.8 reb, 2.8 ast (6)

Durant's scoring has dipped a little bit since last month, but his 3-point percentage is through the roof. He shot nearly 46% from long range in March, well above his season average of 36%, and that kind of marksmanship will come in handy in the playoffs.

7. Russell Westbrook - OKC - 22.0 pts, 4.6 reb, 8.3 ast (8)

Westbrook has the Thunder rolling, winning 11 of their past 12 games to take control of their division over the surging Nuggets and clinch a playoff berth again. Westbrook hit 4 3-pointers on Sunday against Portland, the first time he has made more than one in a game since mid-February.

8. Dirk Nowitzki - DAL - 23.3 pts, 7.0 reb, 2.5 ast (7)

Dirk has picked up every aspect of his game in March, even his free throw shooting, which was already great. His season average is 89%, but he hit 96% of his charity shots this month, with only 4 misses all month. If only the Mavs hadn't lost 6 games in March, they could have overtaken San Antonio for the best record in the league.

9. Dwight Howard - ORL - 23.1 pts, 14.2 reb, 2.4 blk (9)

Even though he is a little behind in both categories, it doesn't appear that Howard has given up on leading the league in rebounds or blocks this season, with averages of 16 rebounds and 3.2 blocks per game in March. He seems like a safe bet to win another Defensive Player of the Year award.

10. LaMarcus Aldridge - POR - 21.9 pts, 8.6 reb, 2.1 ast (10)

Aldridge hasn't been able to keep up the pace that he set around the All-Star break, when he was making headlines almost daily for his exploits on the court around the time of his All-Star snub, but he has Portland in a pretty good position entering the final weeks of the season, and has still managed to remain healthy in the Bermuda Triangle of knee injuries.

Rookie of the Year

1. Blake Griffin - LAC - 22.4 pts, 12.1 reb, 3.7 ast (1)

Griffin has never been anywhere but #1 in these rankings all year, and even though he is coasting into the finish line somewhat, there is absolutely no doubt that he is the league's best rookie, and if the voting isn't unanimous it will be an outrage.

2. John Wall - WAS - 16.0 pts, 4.5 reb, 8.6 ast (2)

The rookie wall sure didn't affect Wall, who continued to improve each month of his rookie season. His only bad performance was when he scored only 2 points against Miami on Wednesday, and that's easily explained away by his early ejection for throwing a punch at Zydrunas Ilgauskas.

3. DeMarcus Cousins - SAC - 14.1 pts, 8.6 reb, 2.4 ast (3)

Just imagine where the Kentucky Wildcats would be this year if Wall and Cousins had stayed in school. Oh, yeah, they're in the Final Four without their freshman stars from last year.

4. Landry Fields - NYK - 9.9 pts, 6.5 reb, 1.9 ast (4)

Fields is just another in a long list of Knicks players whose production took a dive after Carmelo Anthony was acquired last month. His performance after being a second-round draft pick is still very impressive.

5. Greg Monroe - DET - 9.0 pts, 7.3 reb, 1.2 ast (5)

Monroe has been the most improved rookie this season, turning into a very solid player for the Pistons once he started getting playing time in January. He is setting himself up nicely to become a future star.

Sixth Man of the Year

1. Lamar Odom - LAL - 14.4 pts, 8.8 reb, 3.0 ast (1)

Some people may not vote for him because he started so many games this year, but he is eligible according to the rules, and he has been a force off the bench for the Lakers all season long, especially against Phoenix last week, when he scored 29 points and grabbed 16 rebounds in the victory.

2. Jason Terry - DAL - 16.1 pts, 1.9 reb, 4.2 ast (2)

The JET's production tailed off a little this week, when he scored a total of 11 points in two games in Los Angeles. If the award required that you start less than one-third of your team's games, he would run away with this award.

3. Shawn Marion - DAL - 12.0 pts, 6.8 reb, 1.3 ast (5)

After a disappointing start to the season, Marion has come roaring back lately, scoring over 20 points twice this month and grabbing more than 10 rebounds four times, all while playing fewer minutes than what he's used to.

4. Thaddeus Young - PHI - 12.5 pts, 5.4 reb, 1.1 ast (4)

Up until this week, Young had been having a down month, but consecutive games of 21 and 22 points showed that he is back at full strength and ready to help his team in the playoffs.

5. J.R. Smith - DEN - 12.2 pts, 4.1 reb, 2.2 ast (NR)

Smith has benefited greatly from Carmelo's departure, shooting nearly 47% from 3-point range during the month of March, which included his 9 for 16 performance against Detroit on the 12th, a game that he finished with 31 points, his new season high.

Most Improved Player

1. Dorell Wright - GSW - +9.4 pts, +2.0 reb, +1.7 ast (1)

Golden State had to play 18 games in March, but it didn't slow down Wright, who scored right at his season average for the month, and posted two games of more than 30 points for the Warriors, who weren't mathematically eliminated from playoff contention until a few days ago, a huge improvement over last year.

2. D.J. Augustin - CHA - +7.9 pts, +1.6 reb, +3.5 ast (3)

Augustin is slowly working his way back to January form, when he took over the reins when Paul Silas took over as coach and put the Bobcats in the playoff hunt. After a subpar February, Augustin has Charlotte right in the middle of the race for the final playoff spot with only two weeks left in the regular season.

3. Kevin Love - MIN - +6.3 pts, +4.3 reb, +0.2 ast (2)

After going for more than 3 months without missing a double-double, and setting a new record along the way, Love has had 3 games this month where he failed to record one, but the last two can be blamed on an injury that kept him out for four games.

4. Nick Young - WAS - +8.8 pts, +1.3 reb, +0.6 ast (4)

Nearly all of Young's averages are double what he recorded last season, despite the fact that his minutes have only increased by 65% this year. He has taken his talents to a whole new level this year, and the Wizards have a good young core to build around.

5. Jrue Holiday - PHI - +5.9 pts, +1.4 reb, +2.5 ast (5)

Holiday is finishing his sophomore season in strong fashion, scoring at least 24 points twice this week and reaching double-digit assists twice in the past 12 days. He'll be an important piece for the 76ers in the playoffs.

NBA Player of the Day

Rajon Rondo - BOS - 22 pts, 5 reb, 14 ast, 11-20 FG

Rondo finally had a good shooting game, and it couldn't have come at a better time for Boston, who was able to upset the league-leading San Antonio Spurs on the road last night thanks to the efforts of their point guard. If he can shoot like this in the playoffs, the Celtics will be very tough to beat.

Predictions - 1 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Bucks at Pacers - Pacers by 3

Bobcats at Magic - Magic by 12

Nets at 76ers - 76ers by 10

Cavaliers at Wizards - Wizards by 4

Bulls at Pistons - Bulls by 8

Celtics at Hawks - Celtics by 3

Grizzlies at Hornets - Hornets by 2

Heat at Timberwolves - Heat by 9

Spurs at Rockets - Spurs by 1

Thunder at Trail Blazers - Blazers by 1

Nuggets at Kings - Nuggets by 7

Clippers at Suns - Suns by 5

Lakers at Jazz - Lakers by 6

Prediction Results - 31 Mar

NBA: 1-1 (.500) 664-273 overall (.709)