MLB Rankings - 30 May

You may have noticed that it's been a while since I've updated my MLB rankings. There are several reasons for that. Part of it is due to my new job and new baby at home, but another equally important reason is that there was a major flaw in my formula that needed to be corrected. I found a problem that was messing up both strength of schedule and margin of victory, which are two very important components of my sports formulas. I have spend the past week going back through every game of the season up to this point and recalculating my formula, and I believe those errors have been eradicated. Here are my newest rankings, with team name followed by recent record (since May 11), overall record, rating (average runs away from being an average team), and previous (flawed) ranking.

1. Philadelphia (10-8) (33-20) -0.77 (3)

2. NY Yankees (8-10) (28-23) -0.73 (6)

3. Saint Louis (11-7) (32-22) -0.69 (2)

4. Atlanta (10-7) (30-24) -0.334 (1)

5. Texas (9-7) (28-25) -0.325 (15)

6. Milwaukee (13-4) (29-24) -0.21 (16)

7. Cleveland (8-8) (31-19) -0.18 (5)

8. Colorado (6-12) (25-27) -0.13 (10)

9. Cincinnati (7-11) (27-27) -0.08 (7)

10. Boston (13-4) (30-23) -0.05 (23)

11. Pittsburgh (6-9) (24-27) 0.04 (19)

12. Tampa Bay (8-9) (28-24) 0.05 (18)

13. Toronto (11-6) (27-26) 0.06 (27)

14. Chi Cubs (8-9) (23-28) 0.17 (25)

15. Arizona (14-5) (29-24) 0.19 (13)

16. Florida (9-7) (30-21) 0.27 (4)

17. LA Angels (7-11) (28-27) 0.42 (12)

18. San Francisco (9-8) (28-24) 0.43 (9)

19. Seattle (10-6) (26-26) 0.45 (28)

20. Washington (5-12) (22-30) 0.51 (11)

21. Chi Sox (10-8) (24-31) 0.607 (21)

22. Detroit (7-8) (26-26) 0.611 (17)

23. Oakland (8-9) (27-27) 0.62 (20)

24. NY Mets (8-8) (24-28) 0.75 (8)

25. San Diego (8-9) (22-31) 0.88 (24)

26. Houston (6-11) (19-34) 0.9481 (26)

27. Kansas City (5-12) (23-29) 0.9484 (14)

28. LA Dodgers (7-10) (24-30) 1.02 (22)

29. Baltimore (9-8) (24-27) 1.17 (29)

30. Minnesota (5-12) (17-34) 1.89 (30)

Predictions - 30 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Finals

Miami over Dallas in 6

(Odds: Miami - 61.4%)

MLB

Twins at Tigers - Tigers by 0.2

Padres at Braves - Braves by 0.4

Phillies at Nationals - Phils by 1.8

Astros at Cubs - No Pick

Yankees at Athletics - A's by 0.6

Angels at Royals - Angels by 2.5

Orioles at Mariners - Orioles by 0.8

Giants at Cardinals - Cards by 4.1

Rangers at Rays - Rangers by 1.1

Indians at Blue Jays - Jays by 0.3

Brewers at Reds - Brewers by 1.3

White Sox at Red Sox - Red Sox by 0.4

Pirates at Mets - Pirates by 0.2

Rockies at Dodgers - Dodgers by 0.8

Marlins at Diamondbacks - D-Backs by 0.2

Prediction Results - 22-26 May

NBA Playoffs: 3-2 (.600) 53-22 overall (.707)

NBA Playoff MVP Rankings - 21 May

We have entered the conference finals, and the demise of the Grizzlies has opened up 2 new spots in the current top 5. While picking the top 5 players remaining is actually quite easy, ranking them is a bit more challenging. Each surviving team has won 9 playoff games, and each one has a star player (or in Miami's case, two) who would be the obvious Finals MVP if they lead their team to the title. As of today, here is my statistical ranking of each of the top five remaining players, along with their current playoff averages and their previous ranking in parentheses.

1. Dwyane Wade - MIA - 25.3 pts, 7.3 reb, 4.6 ast, 1.3 blk, 1.8 stl (NR)

Wade did not have a dominant game in the first two games of the Chicago series, but his 7.3 rebounds per game are even more impressive when you consider that they are coming from a 6'4" guard. His free throw shooting has also jumped by 5% in the playoffs, a very sizable jump and extremely important since he is the only player on this list who has won a title before.

2. Dirk Nowitzki - DAL - 28.5 pts, 7.9 reb, 3.1 ast, 60% 3PP, 92% FTP (NR)

Dirk padded his credentials this week by averaging 37.5 points over the first two games of the conference finals, which included 48 points in game 1 and a record 24 for 24 free throw performance in that same game. He and Wade appear to be destined for a Finals rematch after 5 years of disappointment for each team.

3. LeBron James - MIA - 25.4 pts, 9.2 reb, 5.0 ast, 1.3 blk, 1.5 stl (3)

LeBron didn't play too well in game 1, but he rebounded strongly in game 2, scoring 29 points and grabbing 10 rebounds while playing with flu-like symptoms. During the playoffs he has been scoring less but rebounding more, a combination that doesn't always earn love from voters.

4. Derrick Rose - CHI - 28.2 pts, 4.3 reb, 8.0 ast, 1.4 stl, 82% FTP (1)

Rose is back to shooting less than 40% again to start the conference finals, and Chicago lost it hard-earned home-court advantage as a result. If Rose had just shot at his season averages in game 2, the Bulls would have scored 9 more points, which would have made the game close enough that it could have gone either way in the final moments.

5. Kevin Durant - OKC - 29.4 pts, 7.4 reb, 2.6 ast, 1.1 blk, 84% FTP (2)

Durant's 32 points per game to start the conference finals has kept him atop the scoring leaders, but his free throw percentage has actually dropped in the postseason overall, and his other numbers haven't varied much from what he posted in the regular season. On the plus side, he did lead the Thunder to an upset over Dallas that gave them the home-court advantage while playing alongside 4 bench players for most of the 4th quarter.

Prediction Results - 13-20 May

NBA Playoffs: 4-2 (.667) 50-20 overall (.714)

Predictions - 21 May

Mavericks at Thunder - Thunder by 2

NBA Playoff MVP Rankings - 13 May

I know I'm going to hear some complaints about a certain Maverick not being among my top five playoff performers so far, but there is a good reason for it. In the clinching game, he was not the reason Dallas won. It was partially due to Los Angeles giving up and partially due to Terry and Peja shooting the lights out. Dirk was just along for the ride in this one. It doesn't mean that he's out of the running, just not a current favorite. Here are my current top 5, with previous rankings in parentheses.

1. Derrick Rose - CHI - 28.8 pts, 4.5 reb, 8.2 ast, 1.5 stl (5)

Last week I criticized Rose for his poor shooting percentage throughout the playoffs, and he responded this week by shooting nearly 50% over 4 games, including a 53.8% mark over Chicago's 3 wins. He also averaged 32.5 points this week, and his numbers in every other statistical category have increased over his regular season averages. Also, Chicago is in the conference finals for the first time since MJ retired, as if all the other reasons to rank him here weren't enough.

2. Kevin Durant - OKC - 29.7 pts, 7.6 reb, 2.4 ast, 1.0 stl (3)

Durant's week was highlighted by his 35 points in a triple overtime win over Memphis in game 4 and 19 points in just 31 minutes in their game 5 blowout which allowed them to take control of the series back from the Grizzlies. He has upped his league-leading scoring average by 2 points in the playoffs to remain the leader.

3. LeBron James - MIA - 26.1 pts, 9.4 reb, 4.9 ast, 1.3 blk, 1.3 stl (2)

LeBron only scored 15 points in Miami's lone loss to Boston, but bounced back nicely with 35 and 33 in consecutive games to close out the series. The most impressive part was the ending of the final game, in which he scored the final 10 points of the game, which Miami won by that exact margin.

4. Zach Randolph - MEM - 22.0 pts, 10.7 reb, 2.7 ast, 1.2 stl (NR)

Randolph has been the driving force behind Memphis' playoff success so far, but in the past 4 games he has shot an abysmal 31.9% from the field as the Grizzlies have lost 3 of 4. His best game came in their lone win this week, in which he tallied 21 points and 21 rebounds to control the paint for Memphis.

5. Marc Gasol - MEM - 15.9 pts, 11.8 reb, 2.4 ast, 2.1 blk, 1.1 stl (NR)

Marc has outplayed his older and more famous brother by far in the playoffs, making that Memphis-Los Angeles trade a couple years ago look a little less one-sided than it did at the time. Marc had 26 points and 21 rebounds in the triple overtime loss to Oklahoma City, a game in which he made two of the most crucial plays, a block near the end of regulation, and a tip-in near the end of the second overtime, both of which allowed the Grizzlies to hang around.

NBA Player of the Day

Carlos Boozer - CHI - 23 pts, 10 reb, 5 ast, 10-16 FG, 3-3 FT

While his MVP teammate may be #1 in the playoff MVP rankings, the clinching game of the Atlanta series belonged to Boozer, who finally broke out of his playoff slump and led Chicago to the conference finals with the with his second straight double-double.

Predictions - 13 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Thunder at Grizzlies - Grizz by 1

MLB

Giants at Cubs - Giants by 0.9

Mariners at Indians - Indians by 1.4

Royals at Tigers - Royals by 0.3

Red Sox at Yankees - Yankees by 1.4

Marlins at Nationals - Marlins by 0.2

Orioles at Rays - Rays by 2.3

Cardinals at Reds - Cards by 0.8

Phillies at Braves - Braves by 0.1

Angels at Rangers - Angels by 0.3

Mets at Astros - Mets by 1.7

Blue Jays at Twins - Jays by 1.9

Pirates at Brewers - Brewers by 0.3

Padres at Rockies - Rockies by 1.1

White Sox at Athletics - A's by 0.0

Diamondbacks at Dodgers - D-Backs by 0.1

Prediction Results - 12 May

NBA Playoffs: 1-0 (1.000) 46-18 overall (.719)

MLB: 5-2 (.714) 209-195 overall (.517)

Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 240-169 overall (.587)

Predictions - 12 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Bulls at Hawks - Bulls by 4

MLB

Rays at Indians - Indians by 0.6

Cardinals at Cubs - Cards by 1.7

Mets at Rockies - Mets by 0.3

Diamondbacks at Giants - Giants by 0.3

Mariners at Orioles - Orioles by 0.3

Royals at Yankees - Yankees by 0.2

Dodgers at Pirates - Pirates by 0.9

Nationals at Braves - Braves by 1.1

NBA Player of the Day

Dwyane Wade - MIA - 34 pts, 10 reb, 5 ast, 4 stl, 13-19 FG, 8-15 FT

LeBron scored the final 10 points for Miami last night, which made up the final scoring differential, but Wade led the Heat in every major statistical category and put them in position to win the game and the series. He shot nearly 70% for the game, and the only black mark on his performance was his poor shooting from the free throw line, but in this case it didn't stop them from finishing off the Celtics.

Prediction Results - 10/11 May

NBA Playoffs: 3-0 (1.000) 45-18 overall (.714)

MLB: 7-8 (.467) 204-193 overall (.514)

Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 239-169 overall (.586)

MLB Rankings - 11 May

Rank. Team (Wk) (Overall) Off/Def (Prev)

1. Atlanta (5-2) (20-17) 1/1 (5)

2. Saint Louis (4-2) (21-15) 2/2 (3)

3. Philadelphia (4-3) (23-12) 3/3 (4)

4. Florida (3-4) (21-14) 6/4 (6)

5. Cleveland (3-3) (23-11) 5/5 (1)

6. NY Yankees (3-3) (20-13) 4/8 (2)

7. Cincinnati (6-1) (20-16) 10/6 (14)

8. NY Mets (4-3) (16-20) 7/11 (15)

9. San Francisco (5-1) (19-16) 9/10 (21)

10. Colorado (2-5) (19-15) 13/7 (17)

11. Washington (3-3) (17-18) 8/12 (12)

12. LA Angels (5-2) (21-16) 12/15 (9)

13. Arizona (2-4) (15-19) 11/18 (19)

14. Kansas City (2-4) (18-17) 15/14 (11)

15. Texas (3-4) (19-18) 14/17 (7)

16. Milwaukee (3-5) (16-20) 17/13 (16)

17. Detroit (6-1) (19-18) 20/9 (25)

18. Tampa Bay (4-2) (20-15) 18/16 (18)

19. Pittsburgh (4-2) (18-18) 16/20 (23)

20. Oakland (4-3) (19-18) 19/19 (22)

21. Chi Sox (3-3) (14-23) 23/21 (29)

22. LA Dodgers (2-4) (17-20) 22/22 (27)

23. Boston (3-4) (17-19) 24/24 (8)

24. San Diego (2-4) (14-22) 26/23 (26)

25. Chi Cubs (2-3) (15-19) 25/25 (28)

26. Houston (1-6) (13-23) 21/28 (20)

27. Toronto (3-4) (16-20) 28/26 (10)

28. Seattle (2-4) (16-20) 27/27 (13)

29. Baltimore (2-4) (15-19) 29/29 (24)

30. Minnesota (2-4) (12-22) 30/30 (30)

Making their Mommas Proud

Atlanta started the week with 4 straight wins, including two shutouts, then lost a game to Philadelphia, the team with the best record in the National League. They ended up winning 2 of 3 over the Phillies and are now the best team in the league.

The Chicago White Sox made a huge improvement this week, reeling off three straight wins for the first time this season, and winning two of those games by shutout, and all three on the road. Their no-hit loss to last-place Minnesota a week ago was pretty embarrassing, but they rebounded nicely for a bad team.

The San Francisco Giants have won 4 straight games and 6 of their past 7, including a very impressive sweep of their weekend series over the division-leading Colorado Rockies. Their pitching staff gave up only 10 runs over 6 games this week, for a staff ERA of 1.67.

Only Their Mothers Could Love Them

Toronto was looking decent until this week, when Detroit outscored them 24-7 over the course of three games spanning Saturday to Monday. Luckily for them, they will be spending this weekend in Minnesota, the home of the worst team in the Major Leagues.

Seattle is now on a 3 game losing streak to teams that were ranked in last week's bottom 7. Prior to that, they had won 8 of 10, but those three inexcusable losses dropped them down into the territory of those teams.

Boston may have won 3 games this week, but all three of those wins came against Minnesota, who would lose to some Little League teams at this point. Before those three wins, they lost 11-0 to the Angels and 9-2 against those horrible Twins.

NBA Player of the Day

Derrick Rose - CHI - 33 pts, 2 reb, 9 ast, 11-24 FG, 1-5 3P, 10-13 FT

With Joakim Noah contributing almost nothing to the Bulls' cause, Derrick Rose raised the level of his game again to give Chicago a 3-2 lead and the inside edge for a spot in the Conference Finals. The MVP even shot well for the first time in the series, which would be a big help to a Chicago team that has struggled more than expected in the playoffs.

NBA Playoff Odds - 10 May

There are now only 7 teams left in the NBA playoffs, and many of them have made some nice jumps this week, especially the Dallas Mavericks, who eliminated the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers in just 4 games. The Bulls are struggling to finish off Atlanta, but they should be able to advance to the next round anyway. Here are the updated odds of each team advancing, with change from last week in parentheses.

Odds of Making Conference Finals

1. Dallas - 100.0% (+16.5)

2. Miami - 94.6% (+5.0)

3. Chicago - 87.6% (+0.3)

4. Oklahoma City - 58.6% (+8.4)

5. Memphis - 41.4% (-8.4)

6. Atlanta - 12.4% (-0.3)

7. Boston - 5.4% (-5.0)

Oklahoma City and Miami both increased their odds by winning a game on the road, Oklahoma City to regain home court advantage, and Miami to push Boston to the brink. Chicago's odds didn't change much because they lost a game in Atlanta, when they should have won both.

Odds of Making NBA Finals

1. Dallas - 66.5% (+13.7)

2. Miami - 54.7% (+1.3)

3. Chicago - 42.6% (+0.8)

4. Oklahoma City - 20.9% (+1.4)

5. Memphis - 12.7% (-4.4)

6. Boston - 2.2% (-2.0)

7. Atlanta - 0.6% (0.0)

The top 4 teams all saw increased odds of making the Finals, especially Dallas after they demolished Los Angeles. Oklahoma City also moved up a little with that news, but Dallas took most of the 10.6% that was given up by the Lakers from last week. Miami and Chicago still looks to be a very entertaining Conference Final.

Odds of Winning the Championship

1. Miami - 34.7% (-1.7)

2. Dallas - 29.1% (+8.3)

3. Chicago - 24.8% (-0.9)

4. Oklahoma City - 6.8% (+0.6)

5. Memphis - 3.5% (-1.2)

6. Boston - 0.9% (-1.0)

7. Atlanta - 0.0% (-0.1)

Only Oklahoma City and Dallas increased their odds of winning the title this week, but no one saw a big change other than the Mavericks, who absorbed LA's 4.3% and moved up a bit with their dominating performance in that series. The Finals may not be as big a blowout for the East as it once looked, but Miami and Chicago are still dominating the odds, with Dallas giving the West a real contender.

NBA Player of the Day

Russell Westbrook - OKC - 40 pts, 5 reb, 5 ast, 3 stl, 2 blk, 15-33 FG, 10-11 FT

Westbrook had a monster game, helped by the fact that it went to triple overtime, but hit more big shots in the game than any other player. He was even able to outscore Kevin Durant, the leading scorer in the regular season and playoffs, while contributing a little bit in every other statistical category and helping the Thunder steal back home court advantage from Memphis.

Predictions - 10 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Hawks at Bulls - Bulls by 10

MLB

Mariners at Orioles - Mariners by 0.2

Rays at Indians - Indians by 0.9

Royals at Yankees - Yankees by 0.5

Dodgers at Pirates - Pirates by 1.6

Red Sox at Blue Jays - Sox by 0.4

Nationals at Braves - Braves by 1.6

Phillies at Marlins - Phillies by 0.6

Athletics at Rangers - A's by 0.3

Cardinals at Cubs - Cards by 1.1

Reds at Astros - Reds by 2.2

Tigers at Twins - Tigers by 2.5

Padres at Brewers - Brewers by 1.1

Mets at Rockies - Rockies by 0.1

White Sox at Angels - Angels by 2.2

Diamondbacks at Giants - D-Backs by 0.0

Prediction Results - 9 May

NBA Playoffs: 0-2 (.000) 42-18 overall (.700)

MLB: 6-3 (.667) 197-185 overall (.516)

Upsets: 0-2 (.000) 239-168 overall (.587)

Predictions - 9 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Heat at Celtics - Celtics by 1

Thunder at Grizzlies - Grizz by 3

MLB

Dodgers at Pirates - Pirates by 0.6

Tigers at Blue Jays - Tigers by 1.1

Twins at Red Sox - Sox by 2.1

Phillies at Marlins - Phillies by 0.3

Athletics at Rangers - Rangers by 0.3

Reds at Astros - Reds by 0.6

Padres at Brewers - Padres by 0.7

Mets at Rockies - Rockies by 0.1

White Sox at Angels - Angels by 1.5

NBA Player of the Day

Josh Smith - ATL - 23 pts, 16 reb, 8 ast, 2 blk, 8-22 FG, 7-9 FT

As impressive as Jason Terry's 9 for 10 performance on 3-pointers was (and it was very impressive), the best player on the court yesterday was Josh Smith of Atlanta, who did a little bit of everything, from scoring inside to grabbing tons of boards to passing to open teammates. He is the biggest reason the Hawks were able to even their series with top-seeded Chicago.

Prediction Results - 8 May

NBA Playoffs: 1-1 (.500) 42-16 overall (.724)

MLB: 8-7 (.533) 191-182 overall (.512)

Upsets: 2-1 (.667) 239-166 overall (.590)