Saturday, April 4, 2015

NBA Rankings and MVP Rankings - 4 Apr

Golden State is still easily the top team in the league, with a 10.5 game lead in the tough Western Conference, a +10.7 point differential, and an 11-game winning streak right now. On top of that, they have lost at home only twice all season, which would tie them for the second-best home record in league history, which would be a major advantage in the playoffs, when they will most likely have home court advantage throughout. Here are this week's full rankings:





Rec
Proj

TW
LW
Team
Rating
W
L
W
L
PO Seed
1
1
Golden State
-9.76381
62
13
68
14
W1
2
3
San Antonio
-6.75378
50
26
54
28
W6
3
2
Cleveland
-5.49976
49
27
54
28
E2
4
4
LA Clippers
-5.37987
50
26
55
27
W2
5
7
Portland
-2.95407
49
26
53
29
W4
6
5
Atlanta
-1.86365
56
19
61
21
E1
7
8
Houston
-1.67384
52
24
55
27
W3
8
6
Oklahoma City
-1.50923
42
34
46
36
W8
9
9
Utah
-1.49969
34
41
38
44

10
10
Chicago
-0.7873
47
29
51
31
E3
11
13
New Orleans
-0.55056
41
34
44
38

12
11
Memphis
-0.03058
52
24
55
27
W5
13
12
Dallas
0.490106
46
30
49
33
W7
14
14
Toronto
0.878229
45
31
48
34
E4
15
15
Indiana
1.306473
32
44
35
47

16
18
Boston
2.216668
34
42
36
46

17
21
Washington
2.463892
43
33
45
37
E5
18
19
Milwaukee
2.470829
38
38
42
40
E6
19
16
Detroit
2.527821
29
47
32
50

20
17
Phoenix
2.939696
38
38
40
42

21
22
Charlotte
3.412319
31
44
34
48

22
20
Miami
3.601907
34
41
37
45
E8
23
24
Brooklyn
3.838004
36
39
39
43
E7
24
25
Sacramento
5.281005
26
49
29
53

25
23
Denver
5.336079
28
48
30
52

26
26
LA Lakers
6.753655
21
54
24
58

27
28
Orlando
7.498016
23
53
25
57

28
29
Philadelphia
8.117554
18
58
20
62

29
27
Minnesota
9.446933
15
61
16
66

30
30
New York
12.99148
14
62
15
67


Portland clinched their division this week after winning 5 of their last 6 games, guaranteeing them a top 4 seed in the playoffs despite the fact that they have the #6 record in the conference. The Trail Blazers have 2 players who would be in the MVP race if they were just a little closer to the top of the standings, with LaMarcus Aldridge having a great season despite a torn ligament in his thumb.

San Antonio has won 6 in a row, and despite sitting at the #6 seed right now, they are only 2 games away from grabbing the #2 seed in the West, and we all know that the Spurs have a history of coming alive at the right time. They moved up to #2 in my rankings this week, their highest level of the season, so you can't count out the defending champs, especially since defending a title is about the only thing Tim Duncan has not accomplished in his amazing career.

Playoff Picks

First Round

(1) Warriors over (8) Thunder
(2) Clippers over (7) Mavericks
(3) Rockets over (6) Spurs
(4) Trail Blazers over (5) Grizzlies
(1) Hawks over (8) Heat
(2) Cavaliers over (7) Nets
(3) Bulls over (6) Bucks
(5) Wizards over (4) Raptors

Second Round

(1) Warriors over (4) Trail Blazers
(2) Clippers over (3) Rockets
(1) Hawks over (5) Wizards
(2) Cavaliers over (3) Bulls

Conference Finals

(1) Warriors over (2) Clippers
(1) Hawks over (2) Cavaliers

NBA Finals

(1) Warriors over (1) Hawks

MVP Rankings

This MVP race is one of the most hotly contested in years, with more than 2 legitimate candidates for the first time since LeBron left Cleveland. Here are my current top 10 MVP candidates:

1. James Harden - HOU - 27.5 P, 5.7 R, 7.0 A, 1.9 S, .442 FG, .865 FT, .376 3P

Harden has continued his ascension into superstardom this season, going from 6th Man of the Year in 2012 to All-NBA Third Team in 2013 to First Team last year to potential MVP this season. He is leading the league in scoring thanks to a career-high 51 against Sacramento on Wednesday, and is also #5 in the league in steals, while getting his team up to #2 in the West. Since all but one MVP in the last 20 years has been on a team that finished in the top 2 of its conference, his MVP chances may rest on maintaining the Rockets' current standing.

2. Stephen Curry - GSW - 23.8 P, 4.3 R, 7.8 A, 2.1 S, .482 FG, .919 FT, .436 3P

Curry is the best player on the best team in the league, which means he has to be in the MVP conversation. He doesn't score quote as much as Harden, but he shoots much better in all areas, and is #3 in the league in steals, 2 spots ahead of Harden. and has boosted his career free throw percentage above 90% and into third place all time, behind only Steve Nash and Mark Price.

3. LeBron James - CLE - 25.6 P, 5.9 R, 7.3 A, 1.6 S, .490 FG, .718 FT, .354 3P

You can't have an MVP race without LeBron, who has led his Cavaliers to the #2 spot in the East and has finished in the top 5 of the MVP voting 9 straight season, with this year shaping up to be #10. Much like Michael Jordan in the 90's, he won't win the MVP every year, even if it is deserved, because voters love to give it to anybody else if there is a legitimate contender, although this year is an exception, because there are two better candidates than the King.

4. Russell Westbrook - OKC - 27.5 P, 7.2 R, 8.6 A, 2.1 S, .419 FG, .840 FT

Westbrook is ahead of James Harden in each of his averages, and has had an amazing second half of the season, with triple-doubles on a weekly basis, but the Thunder are fighting to just make the playoffs this year, which should disqualify him from wining the award, despite his all-around greatness. Next year, watch out for him to pull a James Harden and lead his team to the higher reaches of the West.

5. Klay Thompson - GSW - 21.7 P, 3.2 R, 3.0 A, 1.1 S, .462 FG, .882 FT, .431 3P

Klay Thompson is Scottie Pippen to Steph Curry's Michael Jordan, a necessary piece of a great team who should get more recognition, but a player who will not get many MVP votes due to not being the best player on his team. Russell Westbrook was in this position for the past several years, but I still had him in my top 5 several times over the years, but now that he is the best player on his team, Klay is the new Boy Wonder.

6. Pau Gasol - CHI - 18.6 P, 11.8 R, 2.7 A, 1.9 B, .497 FG, .807 FT

Pau is here because of the way he has kept the Bulls afloat in the absence of Jimmy Butler, who was a legitimate MVP candidate before his injury, but you can't ignore the career renaissance he's had after the move to Chicago.

7. LaMarcus Aldridge - POR - 23.4 P, 10.3 R, 1.8 A, 1.0 B, .467 FG, .846 FT, .351 3P

Aldridge has been great considering the fact that he has been playing with an injury that will require surgery for over two months, and he has led the Trail Blazers to the division title and a playoff berth, and he has suddenly learned how to hit the occasional 3-pointer this year.

8. Damian Lillard - POR - 21.0 P, 4.7 R, 6.3 A, 1.3 S, .433 FG, .863 FT, .344 3P

Just as essential to Portland's run this season is their point guard, who despite being snubbed on All-Star weekend is still one of the best players in the league and should receive a few votes for MVP, even with no chance of winning the award.

9. Kyrie Irving - CLE - 21.9 P, 3.1 R, 5.2 A, 1.5 S, .467 FG, .864 FT, .407 3P

Irving may be the best sidekick LeBron has had in nearly 3 years, since Dwyane Wade was actually healthy and active in Miami for the first couple years of the Big 3. Along with Harden, he is one of 2 players to reach 50 points more than once this season.

10. Chris Paul - LAC - 19.2 P, 4.6 R, 10.2 A, 1.9 S, .485 FG, .896 FT, .390 3P

Paul and the Clippers are one of the top teams in the West and still have a great chance at the #2 seed, with Paul leading the league in assists again and is #7 in steals, and hasn't missed a free throw in the last 5 games.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Philadelphia at Charlotte - Hornets by 7
Brooklyn at Atlanta - Hawks by 8
Miami at Detroit - Pistons by 3
Boston at Toronto - Raptors by 4
Washington at Memphis - Grizzlies by 5
Golden State at Dallas - Warriors by 8
Orlando at Milwaukee - Bucks by 7
LA Clippers at Denver - Clippers by 8
Utah at Phoenix - Jazz by 2
New Orleans at Portland - Trail Blazers by 5

NCAA

(7) Michigan State vs. (1) Duke - Blue Devils by 7
(1) Wisconsin vs. (1) Kentucky - Wildcats by 3

Prediction Results

NBA: 7-3 (.700) 769-356 overall (.684)
Upsets: 0-2 (.000) 74-90 overall (.451)

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