Wednesday, September 24, 2014

NFL Rankings and Weekend Predictions

The AFC North has taken over the top of the rankings this week on the strength of an 8-4 start for the 4 teams in the division, highlighted by Cincinnati's perfect 3-0 start. This week all data from last season was removed from the model, which caused some unusual shifts, but the data will continue to stabilize as more games are played. Here are this week's full rankings, as well as predictions for each of this weekend's college and pro games:





Record
Proj
SOS
Rank
LW
Team
Rating
W
L
W
L
Curr
Overall
1
8
Cincinnati
-27.6609
3
0
15
1
3
6
2
17
Baltimore
-21.6926
2
1
12
4
1
5
3
24
Atlanta
-17.344
2
1
12
4
9
9
4
1
San Diego
-17.2588
2
1
13
3
6
28
5
26
Cleveland
-13.7372
1
2
9
7
2
2
6
10
Arizona
-13.2878
3
0
13
3
10
16
7
29
Pittsburgh
-13.0288
2
1
10
6
5
3
8
22
New Orleans
-12.803
1
2
10
6
7
7
9
3
Seattle
-8.7045
2
1
11
5
12
22
10
9
Chicago
-7.92397
2
1
11
5
13
26
11
7
San Francisco
-7.57691
1
2
9
7
8
14
12
5
Buffalo
-7.5416
2
1
11
5
11
27
13
4
Dallas
-5.91989
2
1
10
6
20
30
14
11
Denver
-3.66889
2
1
9
7
17
11
15
16
Tennessee
-3.31309
1
2
9
7
4
23
16
27
Kansas City
-0.99053
1
2
7
9
18
13
17
18
Detroit
-0.65777
2
1
8
8
26
21
18
6
New England
-0.46754
2
1
8
8
28
18
19
12
Houston
0.45066
2
1
7
9
27
19
20
31
NY Giants
1.26889
1
2
7
9
14
25
21
15
Indianapolis
1.34444
1
2
6
10
30
15
22
2
Carolina
1.45349
2
1
6
10
23
4
23
19
Minnesota
2.13789
1
2
7
9
19
29
24
20
Washington
3.59675
1
2
6
10
31
32
25
14
Philadelphia
4.5286
3
0
8
8
32
31
26
21
Green Bay
5.54635
1
2
6
10
16
20
27
13
Miami
6.66962
1
2
5
11
15
24
28
25
NY Jets
7.03868
1
2
5
11
25
17
29
30
Oakland
9.83771
0
3
2
14
22
10
30
28
Saint Louis
13.4326
1
2
3
13
29
12
31
23
Tampa Bay
16.6093
0
3
1
15
21
1
32
32
Jacksonville
24.9765
0
3
0
16
24
8

Cincinnati is the top team this week, after a 3-0 start that includes the only losses for Baltimore and Atlanta so far this season. Their margin of victory has grown each week, and with a week off, they should be able to hold on to #1 for another week, barring blowout losses by any of their previous opponents.

Atlanta made a huge move this week after destroying Tampa Bay on Thursday night, running up a 56-0 lead before calling off the dogs in the fourth quarter. The Falcons were hitting on all cylinders, scoring touchdowns on offense, defense, and special teams, including Devin Hester's record-setting 20th career return for touchdown.

Last week's #1, San Diego, didn't necessarily do anything wrong this week, beating a good Buffalo team by 12 on the road, but strength of schedule numbers for the other teams trumped the Chargers' close wins over Seattle and Buffalo and loss to Arizona. They look like they'll tumble even more next week, because their strength of schedule is going to take a huge hit after hosting incompetent Jacksonville.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Thursday

Texas Tech at (24) Oklahoma State - Cowboys by 19
Appalachian State at Georgia Southern - Eagles by 22
(11) UCLA at (15) Arizona State - Bruins by 9

NY Giants at Washington - Redskins by 1

Friday

Fresno State at New Mexico - Bulldogs by 9
Middle Tennessee at Old Dominion - Blue Raiders by 4

Saturday

Iowa at Purdue - Boilermakers by 5
UTEP at (25) Kansas State - Wildcats by 21
Wyoming at (9) Michigan State - Spartans by 30
Northwestern at Penn State - Nittany Lions by 21
TCU at SMU - Horned Frogs by 12
South Florida at (19) Wisconsin - Badgers by 38
Tulane at Rutgers - Scarlet Knights by 26
Tennessee at (12) Georgia - Bulldogs by 26
Vanderbilt at Kentucky - Wildcats by 23
Colorado State at Boston College - Golden Eagles by 7
Western Michigan at Virginia Tech - Hokies by 13
Army at Yale - Black Knights by 1
Akron at Pittsburgh - Panthers by 17
Maryland at Indiana - Terrapins by 3
Eastern Illinois at Ohio - Bobcats by 13
Bowling Green at Massachusetts - Falcons by 4
Western Kentucky at Navy - Midshipmen by 13
Minnesota at Michigan - Wolverines by 10
Kent State at Virginia - Cavaliers by 43
FIU at UAB - Blazers by 25
(1) Florida State at North Carolina State - Wolfpack by 9
Wake Forest at Louisville - Cardinals by 33
Miami (OH) at Buffalo - Bulls by 7
Arkansas vs. (6) Texas A&M - Aggies by 11
Colorado at California - Golden Bears by 22
Temple at Connecticut - Owls by 24
Texas at Kansas - Longhorns by 25
Louisiana Tech at (5) Auburn - Tigers by 19
(16) Stanford at Washington - Cardinal by 9
South Alabama at Idaho - Vandals by 2
UTSA at FAU - Roadrunners by 5
Cincinnati at (22) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 23
North Carolina at Clemson - Tigers by 32
Central Michigan at Toledo - Rockets by 12
Rice at Southern Miss - Owls by 5
Troy at Louisiana-Monroe - Warhawks by 16
Missouri at (13) South Carolina - Gamecocks by 18
Boise State at Air Force - Broncos by 12
New Mexico State at (17) LSU - Tigers by 41
Duke at Miami - Hurricanes by 6
Memphis at (10) Ole Miss - Rebels by 9
Texas State at Tulsa - Bobcats by 17
(8) Notre Dame vs. Syracuse - Fighting Irish by 21
(7) Baylor at Iowa State - Bears by 37
UNLV at San Diego State - Aztecs by 18
Washington State at Utah - Utes by 20
Illinois at (21) Nebraska - Cornhuskers by 25
Oregon State at (18) USC - Trojans by 21
Nevada at San Jose State - Spartans by 2

Sunday

Green Bay at Chicago - Bears by 17
Buffalo at Houston - Bills by 5
Tennessee at Indianapolis - Titans by 1
Carolina at Baltimore - Ravens by 25
Detroit at NY Jets - Lions by 5
Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh - Steelers by 33
Miami at Oakland - Raiders by 1
Jacksonville at San Diego - Chargers by 45
Atlanta at Minnesota - Falcons by 16
Philadelphia at San Francisco - 49ers by 15
New Orleans at Dallas - Saints by 4

Monday

New England at Kansas City - Chiefs by 4

Prediction Results

College Football: 40-17 (.702) 212-61 overall (.777)
Upsets: 2-8 (.200) 11-31 overall (.262)
NFL: 12-4 (.750) 31-17 overall (.646)
Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 6-2 overall (.750)

No comments:

Post a Comment