Wednesday, September 17, 2014

NFL Rankings and Weekend Predictions

Last week's top 4 teams all lost, leaving a huge void at the top, so there were a bunch of teams jostling for the top spot, and it was a team with a previous loss that ended up at #1. Here are my full rankings for this week, along with each team's projected final record, and my picks for all of this week's college and pro games:





Record
Proj
SOS
Rank
LW
Team
Rating
W
L
W
L
Curr
Overall
1
7
San Diego
-10.7243
1
1
12
4
4
24
2
5
Carolina
-9.81017
2
0
12
4
22
23
3
2
Seattle
-9.66991
1
1
11
5
5
14
4
12
Dallas
-9.48094
1
1
12
4
9
25
5
19
Buffalo
-8.61943
2
0
12
4
7
15
6
16
New England
-7.37774
1
1
10
6
6
7
7
1
San Francisco
-6.58623
1
1
10
6
3
13
8
10
Cincinnati
-6.42244
2
0
12
4
21
30
9
25
Chicago
-5.39257
1
1
10
6
2
4
10
9
Arizona
-4.76249
2
0
10
6
16
18
11
8
Denver
-3.40314
2
0
9
7
29
8
12
23
Houston
-2.29299
2
0
11
5
27
31
13
4
Miami
-1.46957
1
1
9
7
1
17
14
14
Philadelphia
-1.30326
2
0
9
7
32
19
15
13
Indianapolis
0.240812
0
2
8
8
10
29
16
6
Tennessee
0.308038
1
1
9
7
15
32
17
24
Baltimore
0.529403
1
1
8
8
26
26
18
11
Detroit
0.690853
1
1
7
9
17
10
19
3
Minnesota
0.834834
1
1
7
9
19
12
20
29
Washington
0.993786
1
1
8
8
31
22
21
21
Green Bay
1.275031
1
1
7
9
11
2
22
17
New Orleans
2.802392
0
2
6
10
20
9
23
15
Tampa Bay
3.517072
0
2
6
10
24
21
24
18
Atlanta
3.566248
1
1
7
9
13
20
25
20
NY Jets
5.139089
1
1
6
10
28
5
26
26
Cleveland
6.544865
1
1
6
10
30
28
27
28
Kansas City
6.682201
0
2
5
11
14
6
28
32
Saint Louis
10.51182
1
1
4
12
23
3
29
27
Pittsburgh
11.86632
1
1
5
11
25
27
30
22
Oakland
11.91835
0
2
3
13
18
1
31
31
NY Giants
12.58024
0
2
3
13
12
11
32
30
Jacksonville
19.12521
0
2
2
14
8
16

San Diego climbed to the top on the strength of a win over Seattle, the largest defeat by the Seahawks in nearly 3 years (9 points), but how can they be #1 when the team they lost to is still undefeated? First of all, that team (Arizona) struggled to beat one of the worst teams in the league this week, and that week one loss came on the road by a single point, which is equivalent to winning by 2 on a neutral field. And in case you missed it, the Chargers were my preseason pick to win the AFC.

Carolina climbed into the on deck position this week after beating the high-powered Detroit Lions 24-7 in Cam Newton's return to the field. The experts were all picking the Panthers to collapse this year after finishing with 11 wins a year ago, but through two games they are defying those predictions, putting them on pace for another playoff berth.

Buffalo is also in the top 5 for the first time in memory, riding a 2-0 start that includes upset wins over the Bears in Chicago and the Miami Dolphins, who I picked to win the division. The Bills feature young stars all over, including rookie Sammy Watkins leading the receiving corps. The host San Diego this week in a surprise clash of the titans.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Thursday

(5) Auburn at (20) Kansas State - Tigers by 19

Tampa Bay at Atlanta - Falcons by 3

Friday

Connecticut at South Florida - Huskies by 9

Saturday

Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech - Hokies by 17
Iowa at Pittsburgh - Panthers by 27
Eastern Michigan at (11) Michigan State - Spartans by 48
Western Illinois at Northwestern - Wildcats by 19
Southern Illinois at Purdue - Boilermakers by 6
Bowling Green at (19) Wisconsin - Badgers by 11
Old Dominion at Rice - Owls by 12
Troy at (13) Georgia - Bulldogs by 49
Maryland at Syracuse - Orange by 6
Tulane at Duke - Blue Devils by 30
Maine at Boston College - Eagles by 25
Delaware State at Temple - Owls by 28
Marshall at Akron - Zips by 4
Hawaii at Colorado - Buffaloes by 11
Nicholls State at North Texas - Mean Green by 27
Norfolk State at Buffalo - Bulls by 11
Florida at (3) Alabama - Crimson Tide by 14
(6) Texas A&M at SMU - Aggies by 38
North Carolina at East Carolina - Pirates by 18
Virginia at (21) BYU - Cougars by 23
Army at Wake Forest - Black Knights by 3
Louisville at FIU - Cardinals by 23
Central Michigan at Kansas - Chippewas by 1
Rutgers at Navy - Midshipmen by 16
Utah at Michigan - Utes by 5
Texas State at Illinois - Bobcats by 14
Indiana at (18) Missouri - Tigers by 18
Massachusetts at Penn State - Nittany Lions by 34
San Jose State at Minnesota - Golden Gophers by 6
FAU at Wyoming - Cowboys by 3
Presbyterian at North Carolina State - Wolfpack by 23
Bethune-Cookman at UCF - Knights by 22
Georgia State at Washington - Huskies by 30
Mississippi State at (8) LSU - Tigers by 2
Northern Illinois at Arkansas - Razorbacks by 19
Utah State at Arkansas State - Red Wolves by 9
Miami (OH) at Cincinnati - Bearcats by 34
Middle Tennessee at Memphis - Tigers by 26
Northwestern State at Louisiana Tech - Bulldogs by 36
Appalachian State at Southern Miss - Mountaineers by 18
Ball State at Toledo - Rockets by 8
Idaho at Ohio - Bobcats by 17
Murray State at Western Michigan - Broncos by 8
(4) Oklahoma at West Virginia - Sooners by 1
(14) South Carolina at Vanderbilt - Gamecocks by 26
Georgia Southern at South Alabama - Eagles by 19
UNLV at Houston - Cougars by 35
New Mexico at New Mexico State - Aggies by 4
Miami (FL) at (24) Nebraska - Cornhuskers by 9
(22) Clemson at (1) Florida State - Tigers by 5
California at Arizona - Wildcats by 4
Southern Utah at Fresno State - Bulldogs by 9
(2) Oregon at Washington State - Ducks by 10
San Diego State at Oregon State - Aztecs by 1
Louisiana-Lafayette at Boise State - Broncos by 25

Sunday

San Diego at Buffalo - Bills by 1
Tennessee at Cincinnati - Bengals by 10
Baltimore at Cleveland - Ravens by 3
Dallas at Saint Louis - Cowboys by 17
Green Bay at Detroit - Lions by 4
Indianapolis at Jacksonville - Colts by 16
Oakland at New England - Patriots by 22
Minnesota at New Orleans - Saints by 1
Houston at NY Giants - Texans by 12
Washington at Philadelphia - Eagles by 5
San Francisco at Arizona - Cardinals by 1
Denver at Seattle - Seahawks by 9
Kansas City at Miami - Dolphins by 11
Pittsburgh at Carolina - Panthers by 25

Monday

Chicago at NY Jets - Bears by 7

Prediction Results

College Football: 47-11 (.810) 172-44 overall (.796)
Upsets: 4-5 (.444) 9-23 overall (.281)
NFL: 7-9 (.438) 19-13 overall (.594)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 4-2 overall (.667)

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