Three first-round series have ended so far, and the other 5 will end this weekend, which sets a record for the most game 7's in NBA history for the first round. After analyzing each team's performance over the past week and all potential matchups, here are my updated odds of each team advancing through the remaining rounds of the playoffs:
Odds of Winning First Round
1. Heat - 100.0% (+11.6)
2. Wizards - 100.0% (+30.0)
3. Trail Blazers - 100.0% (+35.9)
4. Spurs - 74.8% (+8.2)
5. Thunder - 73.8% (+31.8)
6. Clippers - 73.1% (-14.5)
7. Raptors - 70.7% (+24.2)
8. Pacers - 64.9% (+30.6)
9. Hawks - 35.1% (-30.6)
10. Nets - 29.3% (-24.2)
11. Warriors - 26.9% (+14.5)
12. Grizzlies - 26.2% (-31.8)
13. Mavericks - 25.2% (-8.2)
Damian Lillard and Portland became the third team to advance to the second round last night with an amazing buzzer-beater, the first time a player has hit a buzzer-beater to win a series since 1997, when John Stockton beat the Houston Rockets as well. 5 of these teams will be gone by Monday, and the odds are favoring the home teams, which have won nearly 80% of Game 7's historically.
Odds of Making Conference Finals
1. Wizards - 71.3% (+20.6)
2. Heat - 70.4% (+9.8)
3. Spurs - 60.7% (+9.6)
4. Clippers - 48.1% (-20.4)
5. Thunder - 35.5% (+20.2)
6. Trail Blazers - 27.2% (+7.1)
7. Raptors - 24.3% (+3.4)
8. Pacers - 21.4% (+9.2)
9. Mavericks - 12.0% (-3.2)
10. Warriors - 11.5% (+5.4)
11. Hawks - 7.3% (-8.3)
12. Nets - 5.3% (-8.1)
13. Grizzlies - 4.9% (-5.2)
By taking out the Bulls quickly, the Wizards greatly increased their odds of making it another round, since they will either be facing the sub-.500 Hawks with home court advantage or the bumbling, tired Pacers. Looks like my pre-playoff prediction of Washington winning 2 rounds is looking pretty good.
Odds of Making NBA Finals
1. Heat - 47.2% (+8.2)
2. Spurs - 35.8% (+8.6)
3. Clippers - 30.3% (-17.0)
4. Wizards - 30.1% (+6.3)
5. Thunder - 18.4% (+10.8)
6. Raptors - 13.5% (+0.9)
7. Trail Blazers - 6.8% (+2.1)
8. Pacers - 6.3% (+2.0)
9. Warriors - 4.4% (+2.1)
10. Mavericks - 3.0% (-0.6)
11. Nets - 1.7% (-2.9)
12. Hawks - 1.32% (-2.4)
13. Grizzlies - 1.28% (-2.0)
A rematch between the Spurs and Heat is the most likely matchup in this season's NBA Finals, but newcomers Washington and Los Angeles will have something to say before it is over.
Odds of Winning NBA Championship
1. Spurs - 29.0% (+6.0)
2. Clippers - 25.3% (-17.1)
3. Heat - 14.1% (+5.3)
4. Thunder - 13.6% (+6.9)
5. Wizards - 6.5% (+2.4)
6. Trail Blazers - 3.4% (+0.6)
7. Raptors - 2.60% (+0.3)
8. Warriors - 2.59% (+1.2)
9. Mavericks - 1.6% (-0.6)
Only 9 teams still have a legitimate shot at the title, with the Heat, Thunder, and Spurs making big strides this week, while the Clippers faltered a little, though they are still one of the favorites to win it all. The West's odds dropped to 76.0%, down another 6% from last week, mostly thanks to the defending champs.
Updated Picks
Upset picks are in italics.
First Round
Pacers over Hawks in 7
Heat over Bobcats in 4
Raptors over Nets in 7
Wizards over Bulls in 5
Spurs over Mavericks in 7
Thunder over Grizzlies in 7
Clippers over Warriors in 7
Trail Blazers over Rockets in 6
I originally picked Houston to win round 1, but the other 7 series picks are all where I originally had them, even Washington's upset win over the Bulls.
Second Round
Wizards over Pacers in 6
Heat over Raptors in 6
Spurs over Trail Blazers in 4
Thunder over Clippers in 7
I've switched 2 picks here, with LA slipping due to distractions and fatigue, and Miami taking Toronto's spot due to their great first round and downtime waiting for their next opponent.
Conference Finals
Heat over Wizards in 6
Spurs over Thunder in 6
It's looking like a rematch in the Finals, a total switch from my original prediction, but last year's Finals teams have played very well so far.
NBA Finals
Spurs over Heat in 5
San Antonio will get revenge for their first Finals loss and keep LeBron from getting the three-peat.
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