5 more teams were sent home last weekend, leaving only 8 teams vying for this season's title, including the top 2 teams from each conference. Last week the Spurs had the best odds of winning the title, and they have done nothing since to diminish that. Here are my full current odds of each team advancing:
Odds of Making Conference Finals
1. Spurs - 97.4% (+36.7)
2. Heat - 95.8% (+25.4)
3. Pacers - 63.4% (+42.0)
4. Thunder - 61.7% (+26.2)
5. Clippers - 38.3% (-9.8)
6. Wizards - 36.6% (-34.7)
7. Nets - 4.2% (-1.1)
8. Trail Blazers - 2.6% (-24.6)
Indiana's big win at Washington last night made them the favorites to win the series for the first time, while the Spurs and Heat are in complete control right now, which has them on a collision course for a Finals rematch.
Odds of Making NBA Finals
1. Heat - 70.2% (+23.0)
2. Spurs - 67.4% (+31.6)
3. Pacers - 17.9% (+11.6)
4. Thunder - 17.5% (-0.9)
5. Clippers - 14.7% (-15.6)
6. Wizards - 10.7% (-19.4)
7. Nets - 1.3% (-0.4)
Portland is the only team left with no chance of making the Finals, which would require overcoming a 2-0 deficit against the Spurs, then a win over the Thunder or Clippers without home court advantage. It was a good run.
Odds of Winning NBA Championship
1. Spurs - 57.1% (+28.1)
2. Heat - 16.5% (+2.4)
3. Thunder - 12.3% (-1.3)
4. Clippers - 11.6% (-13.7)
5. Pacers - 1.3% (+1.3)
6. Wizards - 1.1% (-5.4)
Brooklyn, even with all their playoff experience, will not be winning the title this year, because they would have to win 4 out of 5 against the Heat, who have yet to lose this postseason.
Updated Picks
Upset picks are in italics.
Second Round
Pacers over Wizards in 6
Heat over Nets in 4
Spurs over Trail Blazers in 4
Thunder over Clippers in 6
Conference Finals
Heat over Pacers in 5
Spurs over Thunder in 5
NBA Finals
Spurs over Heat in 4
San Antonio is on a mission to avenge their first Finals loss, and sweeping the team responsible would be the perfect way to end the season.
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