Sunday, December 1, 2013

College Football Rankings - 1 Dec

Most of the top teams did not play up to their potential this weekend, creating a huge gap between #1 Florida State and the rest of the team in the nation. At this point, the Seminoles are 10 points better than any other team in college football, which is the largest difference I have seen in all the years I have been compiling rankings. Here are my full rankings, along with each team's predicted final record:

Rank
LW
Team
Record
Rating
Pred
Ch
Undef %
1
1
Florida State
12-0
-43.0321
13-0

100.0
2
2
Baylor
10-1
-33.3481
11-1


3
3
Oregon
10-2
-32.7801
10-2


4
5
Arizona State
10-2
-30.7439
11-2


5
4
Alabama
11-1
-30.6918
11-1
-1

6
6
Ohio State
12-0
-27.0787
13-0

82.3
7
8
Stanford
10-2
-26.0352
10-3


8
9
Missouri
11-1
-25.7467
12-1
+1

9
11
Oklahoma State
10-1
-25.4203
11-1


10
10
Washington
8-4
-25.1205
8-4


11
7
Wisconsin
9-3
-24.5259
9-3
-1

12
12
Clemson
10-2
-23.7517
10-2


13
16
UCLA
9-3
-22.9272
9-3
+1

14
13
Auburn
11-1
-22.3892
11-2
+1

15
17
South Carolina
10-2
-21.2579
10-2


16
15
Georgia Tech
7-5
-20.0505
7-5
-1

17
21
Georgia
8-4
-19.524
8-4
+1

18
14
LSU
9-3
-19.2851
9-3


19
19
USC
9-4
-18.1355
9-4
-1

20
18
Arizona
7-5
-17.9239
7-5


21
20
Brigham Young
8-4
-17.8689
8-4


22
23
Texas A&M
8-4
-17.2274
8-4


23
24
Utah State
8-4
-15.8994
9-4


24
25
Miami (FL)
9-3
-15.8183
9-3


25
22
Utah
5-7
-15.587
5-7


26
28
Michigan State
11-1
-14.6654
11-2


27
27
Louisville
10-1
-14.6571
11-1


28
26
Virginia Tech
8-4
-14.1029
8-4


29
31
Duke
10-2
-13.1339
10-3
+1

30
32
Oklahoma
9-2
-12.9945
9-3


31
30
Ole Miss
7-5
-12.74
7-5


32
29
North Carolina
6-6
-12.5224
6-6
-1

33
36
Houston
8-4
-12.293
8-4


34
41
Marshall
9-3
-12.1484
10-3
+1

35
33
Boise State
8-4
-12.0736
8-4


36
40
Notre Dame
8-4
-11.9327
8-4


37
42
Oregon State
6-6
-11.6318
6-6


38
35
Washington State
6-6
-11.6098
6-6


39
38
Mississippi State
6-6
-11.3603
6-6


40
37
Kansas State
7-5
-11.2787
7-5


41
45
Texas
8-3
-10.744
8-4


42
48
Iowa
8-4
-10.2637
8-4
+1

43
44
Bowling Green
9-3
-10.248
10-3
+1

44
34
UCF
10-1
-10.2436
11-1


45
49
Michigan
7-5
-9.86688
7-5


46
39
East Carolina
9-3
-8.48482
9-3


47
47
Florida
4-8
-8.22087
4-8


48
43
Fresno State
10-1
-7.84456
10-2
-1

49
46
Texas Tech
7-5
-6.99599
7-5


50
51
Northern Illinois
12-0
-6.60003
12-1

40.0
51
52
Pittsburgh
6-6
-6.47308
6-6


52
50
Vanderbilt
8-4
-6.27613
8-4


53
54
Cincinnati
9-2
-6.01569
9-3


54
53
Navy
7-4
-5.81522
8-4


55
56
Tennessee
5-7
-5.76316
5-7


56
64
North Texas
8-4
-5.35478
8-4


57
55
Indiana
5-7
-5.16285
5-7


58
61
TCU
4-8
-5.13996
4-8


59
59
Minnesota
8-4
-4.8811
8-4


60
58
Boston College
7-5
-4.8614
7-5


61
57
Nebraska
8-4
-4.75878
8-4
-1

62
72
Penn State
7-5
-3.70475
7-5
+1

63
63
Ball State
10-2
-3.63596
10-2


64
60
Arkansas State
7-5
-3.32857
7-5


65
65
Syracuse
6-6
-2.91518
6-6


66
73
Colorado State
7-6
-2.16306
7-6


67
62
Louisiana-Lafayette
8-3
-1.97412
8-4
-1

68
69
Northwestern
5-7
-1.91017
5-7
+1

69
66
Buffalo
8-4
-1.30826
8-4


70
75
Maryland
7-5
-1.30079
7-5
+1

71
67
Toledo
7-5
-1.26378
7-5
-1

72
68
Rice
9-3
-1.14158
9-4


73
71
Western Kentucky
8-4
-0.816
8-4


74
76
Wake Forest
4-8
0.163962
4-8


75
70
Florida Atlantic
6-6
0.476354
6-6


76
77
Middle Tennessee
8-4
1.408856
8-4


77
79
Tulane
7-5
1.801919
7-5


78
78
UTSA
7-5
2.074762
7-5


79
85
San Jose State
6-6
2.19294
6-6
+1

80
86
Colorado
4-8
2.547007
4-8


81
84
South Alabama
5-6
2.730028
6-6
+1

82
74
Memphis
3-8
2.877965
4-8
-1

83
82
Virginia
2-10
3.370575
2-10


84
81
Illinois
4-8
3.408729
4-8
-1

85
90
Arkansas
3-9
3.510012
3-9


86
83
Kentucky
2-10
3.935278
2-10


87
89
Nevada
4-8
3.997847
4-8


88
80
North Carolina State
3-9
4.255296
3-9
-1

89
88
Troy
6-6
4.627802
6-6


90
92
UNLV
7-5
4.870236
7-5


91
87
West Virginia
4-8
5.290923
4-8
-1

92
93
Iowa State
3-9
5.574757
3-9
+1

93
96
Ohio
7-5
7.165435
7-5


94
91
San Diego State
7-5
7.844137
7-5


95
103
Temple
2-10
8.110793
2-10
+1

96
98
Louisiana-Monroe
6-6
8.144203
6-6
+1

97
95
Southern Methodist
5-6
8.1721
5-7


98
94
Rutgers
5-6
8.482127
6-6


99
99
Kent State
4-8
9.358377
4-8


100
97
California
1-11
9.362684
1-11


101
101
Hawaii
1-11
9.706963
1-11


102
102
Wyoming
5-7
10.60223
5-7


103
100
Tulsa
3-9
11.43945
3-9


104
104
Army
3-8
11.77599
3-9


105
107
Akron
5-7
12.27357
5-7
+1

106
105
Kansas
3-9
12.50616
3-9


107
106
Texas State
6-6
12.58573
6-6


108
109
South Florida
2-9
12.8272
2-10


109
108
New Mexico
3-9
14.38622
3-9


110
111
Central Michigan
6-6
14.59978
6-6


111
113
Connecticut
2-9
15.45564
2-10


112
112
Purdue
1-11
16.298
1-11


113
115
Louisiana Tech
4-8
18.42897
4-8


114
114
Air Force
2-10
19.33825
2-10


115
110
UAB
2-10
20.14051
2-10
-1

116
118
Western Michigan
1-11
22.37763
1-11


117
117
UTEP
2-10
23.35548
2-10


118
116
Georgia State
0-12
23.41141
0-12


119
119
Massachusetts
1-11
25.05897
1-11


120
120
Idaho
1-11
26.83498
1-11


121
124
Southern Miss
1-11
27.91686
1-11
+1

122
122
New Mexico State
2-10
28.33518
2-10


123
121
Miami (OH)
0-12
28.67127
0-12


124
123
Eastern Michigan
2-10
30.2924
2-10


125
125
Florida International
1-11
32.64663
1-11



The Missouri Tigers were one of the big winners this weekend, earning a spot in the SEC title game in their second year in the league with a win over Texas A&M, and they got a pleasant surprise when Alabama was upset by Auburn on a last-second miracle, setting up an all-Tiger SEC Championship Game this weekend. Missouri didn't even make a bowl game last year, so the fact that they could win the SEC this season is incredible, and I am favoring Missouri in a close game.

Auburn's upset of Alabama in the Iron Bowl also continued the fairy tale season for these Tigers, getting them back into the SEC title game and keeping them alive in the hunt for the national title. Although no 1-loss team has ever jumped over an undefeated team from an AQ conference in the BCS standings, this might be the year, especially if Auburn wins this weekend, because two straight wins over top-5 teams to close the season, along with the fact that their only loss is to another top-10 team, should trump Ohio State's weak undefeated record, which would include just two wins over ranked opponents.

UCLA finished off a slightly disappointing season with a win at rival USC yesterday, but they have no reason to be down about their season. They hadn't won at USC since 1997, and they just won 2 straight in the cross-town rivalry for the first time in 16 years as well. All 3 of the Bruins' losses this season came against teams ranked in my top 7, which is nothing to be ashamed of.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

College Football

Louisville at Cincinnati - Cardinals by 4
Bowling Green vs. Northern Illinois - Falcons by 4
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State - Cowboys by 17
UCF at SMU - Knights by 13
Memphis at Connecticut - Tigers by 8
Texas at Baylor - Bears by 28
Missouri vs. Auburn - Missouri Tigers by 3
South Florida at Rutgers - Scarlet Knights by 9
Stanford at Arizona State - Sun Devils by 10
Louisiana-Lafayette at South Alabama - Jaguars by 1
Duke vs. Florida State - Seminoles by 30
Ohio State vs. Michigan State - Buckeyes by 12

NBA

Denver at Toronto - Nuggets by 1
Indiana at LA Clippers - Clippers by 2
Philadelphia at Detroit - Pistons by 7
Golden State at Sacramento - Warriors by 4
Charlotte at Miami - Heat by 16
Minnesota at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 5
New Orleans at New York - Pelicans by 2
Portland at LA Lakers - Trail Blazers by 2

College Basketball

Washington State vs. Saint Joseph's - Hawks by 1
(12) Wichita State at Saint Louis - Billikens by 7
Loyola (IL) at Mississippi State - Bulldogs by 14
Cornell at Notre Dame - Fighting Irish by 25
Stephen F Austin at High Point - Panthers by 7
Fairleigh Dickinson at Seton Hall - Pirates by 30
Norfolk State at LIU Brooklyn - Blackbirds by 10
Sacred Heart at Lehigh - Mountain Hawks by 2
St. Francis (NY) at Stony Brook - Seawolves by 4
Iona at Florida Gulf Coast - Gaels by 13
Kennesaw State at Kent State - Golden Flashes by 16
Colgate at Binghamton - Raiders by 5
Cal State Bakersfield vs. Drake - Bulldogs by 12
Albany at NJIT - Highlanders by 1
Columbia at Elon - Lions by 1
Dartmouth at Maine - Big Green by 10
Mount Ida at Massachusetts Lowell - River Hawks by 22
Butler vs. LSU - Tigers by 6
Miami vs. Arizona State - Sun Devils by 11
Hardin-Simmons at (18) Baylor - Bears by 42
Kentucky State at Samford - Bulldogs by 18
Southern Utah at Portland - Pilots by 32
Prairie View A&M vs. Northern Colorado - Bears by 10
Central Arkansas at Kansas State - Wildcats by 16
Oregon State at DePaul - Blue Demons by 6
Cal State Fullerton vs. Charleston - Titans by 4
UNC-Wilmington at East Carolina - Pirates by 18
Texas State vs. SE Missouri State - Redhawks by 14
La Sierra at Cal State Northridge - Matadors by 20
VCU at Belmont - Bruins by 2
Northern Arizona at Fresno State - Bulldogs by 18
Purdue vs. Siena - Boilermakers by 9
(16) North Carolina at UAB - Tar Heels by 9
UNC Asheville at Charlotte - 49ers by 20
Louisiana Tech at Jackson State - Bulldogs by 16
George Washington vs. (20) Creighton - Bluejays by 4
(5) Oklahoma State vs. (21) Memphis - Cowboys by 9
North Dakota vs. Pacific - Tigers by 3
Coppin State at (11) Gonzaga - Bulldogs by 31
South Dakota State at Stanford - Cardinal by 15
Providence vs. (3) Kentucky - Wildcats by 12
(25) Marquette vs. San Diego State - Aztecs by 7
Cal Poly at (14) Oregon - Ducks by 11

Pick of the Day




Portland

Today's pick is the Portland Pilots, who will be hosting Southern Utah, which ranks near the bottom of the nation in nearly every offensive category. A win will give me 24 straight to open the season.

Prediction Results

College Football: 44-15 (.746) 620-175 overall (.780)
Upsets: 8-5 (.615) 62-63 overall (.496)
NBA: 2-5 (.286) 159-88 overall (.644)
Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 26-19 overall  (.578)
College Basketball: 68-21 (.764) 1065-247 overall (.812)
Upsets: 10-6 (.625) 109-61 overall (.641)

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