Saturday, May 18, 2013

NBA Playoff Odds - 18 May

3 of the 4 Conference Finalists have been determined, and the fourth could join them tonight. So far, Memphis has been the only surprise team, but they had the good luck of not having to face Russell Westbrook in the second round. The Indiana Pacers could finish off their upset tonight at home, becoming the second underdog to reach the Conference Finals this year. Here are each remaining team's odds of advancing and winning the championship:

Odds of Making Conference Finals

Indiana - 72.8% (+26.8)
New York - 27.2% (-26.8)

Odds of Making NBA Finals

Miami - 78.8% (+6.9)
San Antonio - 57.6% (+21.8)
Memphis - 42.4% (+26.6)
Indiana - 14.3% (+3.8)
New York - 6.9% (-9.6)

Odds of Winning NBA Championship

Miami - 48.1% (+8.6)
San Antonio - 27.5% (+10.2)
Memphis - 18.5% (+11.9)
Indiana - 3.7% (+1.4)
New York - 2.2% (-2.7)

This weeks hottest team was the Memphis Grizzlies, who won all three games against the heavily favored Oklahoma City Thunder to take the series in 5 games and advance to the Western Conference Finals for the first time in franchise history. Every game in the series was close, with no team winning by more than 6 points, but Memphis pulled it out when it mattered more often than not, and they have a better chance of beating the Spurs than many may think.

Updated Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Second Round

Pacers over Knicks in 6 (Tied 2-2 in regular season)

Conference Finals

Heat over Pacers in 5 (Indiana 2-1)
Spurs over Grizzlies in 7 (Tied 2-2)

NBA Finals

Heat over Spurs in 7 (Miami 2-0)

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