Saturday, May 11, 2013

NBA Playoff Odds - 11 May

All four favorites in the second round gave up their home court advantage this week, meaning that each of the underdogs would just need to win each of its home games in order to advance to the Conference Finals, but last night two of the favorites, San Antonio and Miami, stole back their hard-earned advantage with 10-point wins on the road. Will Oklahoma City and New York follow suit? Here are each team's odds of advancing through the remainder of the playoffs.

Odds of Making Conference Finals

Miami - 94.8% (+8.1)
San Antonio - 85.3% (+6.6)
Oklahoma City - 64.6% (-12.6)
New York - 54.0% (-6.5)
Indiana - 46.0% (+6.5)
Memphis - 35.4% (+12.6)
Golden State - 14.7% (-6.6)
Chicago - 5.2% (+2.8)

Odds of Making NBA Finals

Miami - 71.9% (+9.0)
Oklahoma City - 46.0% (-10.4)
San Antonio - 35.8% (+5.4)
New York - 16.5% (-4.9)
Memphis - 15.8% (+5.8)
Indiana - 10.5% (-1.1)
Golden State - 2.5% (-0.7)
Chicago - 1.1% (+1.1)

Odds of Winning NBA Championship

Miami - 39.5% (+8.0)
Oklahoma City - 28.8% (-9.3)
San Antonio - 17.3% (+1.2)
Memphis - 6.6% (+2.2)
New York - 4.9% (-1.1)
Indiana - 2.3% (-0.2)

The hottest team of the week was the Miami Heat, appropriately, who, despite losing Game 1 at home to the worst remaining playoff team, did not fold under pressure. They came back with a decisive blowout in Game 2, then took back their home court advantage in Chicago last night. Before the season I predicted that this would be one of the greatest teams in history, projecting them to win 70 games during the regular season, which wasn't as far off as it sounded at the time. With 5 of the remaining teams missing key players, Miami just may live up to the hype.


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