The regular season has ended, unless you count Army vs. Navy, which hasn't meant anything in over a decade. There is only one team undefeated today, which means that LSU has guaranteed their berth in the championship game, but their opponent is not quite as set in stone as many commentators believed heading into this weekend. Five of the automatic BCS berths have been claimed, with one waiting until the standing come out, and two of the four wild card berths are pretty much guaranteed to Alabama and Stanford, leaving only two spots open and a huge group of teams hoping to grab one. Here are this week's rankings, with gaps between groups of teams representing different levels of performance.
TW. (LW) Team (Record) Rating (AP)
1. (1) LSU (13-0) -35.72 (1)
2. (3) Oklahoma State (11-1) -32.24 (3)
3. (2) Alabama (11-1) -31.41 (2)
4. (4) Oregon (11-2) -25.58 (6)
5. (6) Wisconsin (11-2) -24.85 (9)
6. (7) Stanford (11-1) -23.54 (4)
7. (5) Oklahoma (9-3) -22.61 (19)
8. (10) USC (10-2) -19.85 (5)
9. (9) Boise State (11-1) -18.62 (8)
10. (8) Houston (12-1) -18.20 (20)
11. (12) Michigan (10-2) -17.51 (13)
12. (13) Arkansas (10-2) -17.34 (7)
13. (14) Michigan State (10-3) -16.44 (12)
14. (11) Texas A&M (6-6) -16.33 (NR)
15. (17) Baylor (9-3) -13.87 (15)
16. (19) Notre Dame (8-4) -12.94 (26)
17. (15) Kansas State (10-2) -12.90 (11)
18. (21) South Carolina (10-2) -12.89 (10)
19. (22) California (7-5) -12.21 (NR)
20. (20) TCU (10-2) -11.72 (16)
21. (23) Florida State (8-4) -11.43 (25)
22. (16) Texas (7-5) -11.06 (NR)
23. (18) Georgia (10-3) -11.04 (18)
24. (24) Missouri (7-5) -10.07 (32)
25. (NR) Vanderbilt (6-6) -9.30 (NR)
Dropped Out
(25) Virginia Tech (11-2) -6.06 (17)
Ranked Teams By Conference
Big 12 - 7
SEC - 6
Pac 12 - 4
Big 10 - 3
MWC - 2
CUSA - 1
Ind - 1
ACC - 1
BCS Situation
These are the teams that have earned automatic berths, along with the conference they represent. After the team name is their record against current top-30 teams, along with the average score of those games and the rankings of any teams they lost to.
SEC - LSU (4-0) 33-15 (No Losses)
Big 12 - Oklahoma State (6-0) 45-26 (44)
Pac 12 - Oregon (3-2) 40-30 (1, 8)
Big 10 - Wisconsin (2-1) 40-31 (13, 45)
ACC - Clemson (1-1) 24-32 (18, 59, 62)
Big East - West Virginia (1-1) 23-34 (1, 39, 77) or
Big East - Cincinnati (0-0) 0-0 (32, 46, 56)
The Big East's automatic bid will go to the team with the highest BCS rank among West Virginia, Cincinnati, and Louisville, who tied for the conference title. Since Louisville has no chance at being ranked in the BCS, I have not included them above.
Any team ranked in the top 4 of the final BCS standings without winning their conference championship gets an automatic at-large berth, and there are two teams likely to find themselves in that category this year.
Alabama (2-1) 26-8 (1)
Stanford (3-1) 36-36 (4)
That accounts for 8 of the 10 BCS berths. The two remaining berths are up for grabs among 11 teams. In order to be awarded an at-large berth, a team must have at least 9 wins, must finish among the top 14 in the final BCS rankings, and not be in the same conference as two other BCS teams (which eliminates Arkansas, South Carolina, and Georgia from contention). If a non-AQ conference champion finished in the top 16 and ahead of one of the major conference champions (whoever wins the Big East), they will get an at-large bid, with a maximum of one getting a guaranteed berth. There are two teams that could get in using that rule, but will not get in otherwise. They are listed here:
TCU (1-1) 42-43 (15, 79)
Southern Miss (1-0) 49-28 (101, 112)
Here are the remaining teams that could get at-large berths, provided that they finish among the top 14, organized by current USA Today rank, which is a part of the BCS formula:
Boise State (2-1) 37-26 (20)
Kansas State (4-2) 32-38 (2, 7)
Virginia Tech (0-0) 0-0 (37, 37)
Michigan (2-1) 31-25 (13, 42)
Michigan State (2-3) 24-28 (5, 16, 27)
Baylor (4-3) 39-43 (2, 14, 17)
Houston (0-1) 28-49 (28)
Oklahoma (5-2) 38-27 (2, 15, 69)
Nebraska (1-2) 19-32 (5, 11, 61)
The bottom 4 are unlikely to be ranked high enough to qualify for a BCS berth, and each is likely to have too many conference opponents ranked ahead of them to make it in. Virginia Tech may be considered, but since they have not played a ranked team (unless you count Clemson, which I don't), I feel they would not be a good choice. That leaves two spots for 3 teams: Boise State, Kansas State, and one of the Michigan teams. Here are the teams I believe will play in each of the BCS games:
BCS Championship Game: LSU vs. Alabama
Orange Bowl - Clemson vs. West Virginia
Sugar Bowl - Boise State vs. Michigan
Rose Bowl - Oregon vs. Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl - Oklahoma State vs. Stanford
Here are the teams I think should play in each of the BCS games:
BCS Championship Game: LSU vs. Oklahoma State
Orange Bowl - Clemson vs. Cincinnati
Sugar Bowl - Alabama vs. Kansas State
Rose Bowl - Oregon vs. Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl - Stanford vs. Boise State
Sadly, there is still an argument as to which two teams should play in the championship game, a problem that we wouldn't have if a simple playoff system could be created. There are several different versions that would work, and any would be better than the current system. Here is an 8-team playoff setup, using the top 8 teams in the BCS rankings, with no limit on the number of teams a conference can have:
(1) LSU
(2) Alabama
(3) Oklahoma State
(4) Stanford
(5) Boise State
(6) Oregon
(7) Arkansas
(8) Wisconsin
This would only take three weeks of games to complete, and would keep the majority of football fans more interested throughout the month of December, since right now no game matters after December 3rd. I still believe that a 16-team playoff would be even better, with the 11 conference champions and 5 at-large teams, with a 2-team-per-conference limit. Here is how that would look:
(1) LSU
(2) Alabama
(3) Oklahoma State
(4) Stanford
(5) Boise State
(6) Oregon
(7) Kansas State
(8) Wisconsin
(9) Michigan
(10) Clemson
(11) TCU
(12) Southern Miss
(13) Cincinnati
(14) Louisiana Tech
(15) Arkansas State
(16) Northern Illinois
While many say that it would be better to have only 12 teams and give the top 4 teams a first-round bye, like in the NFL, this system basically does that anyway, with the top four teams getting unranked opponents in the first round of the playoffs.
Prediction Results
Ranked Teams: 8-2 (.800) 241-93 overall (.722)
Unranked Teams: 11-1 (.917) 131-56 overall (.701)
Upsets: 1-1 (.500) 45-67 overall (.402)
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